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Professor Mark Brown
Director, National Institute for Digital Learning
Beijing, China
Wednesday 8th June 2016
The Story of...
National Institute for Digital Learning
• DCU Connected
• Teaching Enhancement
• Digital Learning Research
@mbrownz
Outline…
1. Failed predictions
2. Troublesome tensions
3. Education for a better future
The Story of Distance Education:
T...
Key question…
“If new models of distance
education (including the use
of learning analytics) provide
a dream solution for ...
The Rhetoric Reality Gap
Key message…
This presentation
is NOT limited to a
focus on just learning analytics
Key warning…
1. Failed predictions…
What technology is
likely to have the greatest
impact on higher education by 2027?
1. Failed predictions…
“The student who has prepared a certain number of
lessons in the correspondence school knows
more of the subject treated i...
“With the coming of the New Media, the need for
print on paper will rapidly diminish. The day will
soon arrive when the wo...
“With the coming of the New Media, the need for
print on paper will rapidly diminish. The day will
soon arrive when the wo...
“Books will soon be obsolete in public schools.
Scholars will be instructed through the eye. It is
possible to teach every...
“I believe that the motion picture is destined to
revolutionize our educational system and that
in a few years it will sup...
“The central and dominant aim of education by
radio is to bring the world to the classroom, to
make universally available ...
“We will undoubtedly have lectures of every
conceivable kind presented to us right in our
homes, when practical television...
1. Failed predictions…
“It happens every
day! Many so
c a l l e d ‘ s l o w
students’ learn
to type and then
show up on th...
“Modern educators and psychologists have found,
through thousands of tests in the nations schools,
that “typewriter” child...
1. Failed predictions…
“Your teaching efforts are more effective. Pupils
comprehend faster with the brighter, more
detaile...
Project Plato – 1960s
1. Failed predictions…
Project Plato – 1960s
1. Failed predictions…
Cuban, L. (1986). Teachers and machines: The classroom use of technology
since 1920. New York: Teachers’ College Press.
Te...
Gartner Hype Cycle
“Technology-enhanced learning involves an
ongoing cycle of hype, hope and
disappointment” (Gouseti, 201...
Gartner Hype Cycle
“Technology-enhanced learning involves an
ongoing cycle of hype, hope and
disappointment” (Gouseti, 201...
“Resilience requires
adaptation and evolution to new
environmental conditions, but retains core identity”
(Weller & Anders...
1. Failed predictions…
“In 50 years… there will
be only 10 institutions in
the world delivering
higher education and
Udacity has a shot at
being ...
“According to the hype cycle model, MOOCs
should now be exiting the ‘trough of
disillusionment’ and entering a period of
‘...
Allen, E., & Seaman, J., with Poulin, R., & Taylor Straut, T. (2016). Online report card: Tracking online
education in the...
Students’ experiences
with MOOCs
https://library.educause.edu/resources/2015/8/2015-student-and-faculty-technology-researc...
1. Failed predictions…
“Big data, powerful analytical tools, and
sophisticated data mining techniques is poised to
spark a revolution in how educ...
1. Failed predictions…
1. Failed predictions…
http://www.aupress.ca/index.php/books/120258
“We tend to overestimate the effect of a
technology in the short run and
underestimate the effect in the long
run.”
Amara’...
1. Failed predictions…
“A prudent question is one-half of wisdom”
Francis Bacon
http://www.slideshare.net/mbrownz
Questions…
2. Troublesome tensions…
What will be the greatest
change to higher education by 2027?
2. Troublesome tensions…
Tension 1
The international demand for higher
education is growing exponentially
but relatively few universities around
th...
Education at a Glance…
2. Troublesome tensions…
Allen, E., & Seaman, J., with Poulin, R., & Taylor Straut, T. (2016). Online report card: Tracking online
education in the...
Horrigan, J. (2016). Lifelong learning and technology. Pew Research Center. Available from http://
www.pewinternet.org/201...
(Heinlein, 2015)
71% outside
2. Troublesome tensions…
2. Troublesome tensions…
http://asemlllhub.org/fileadmin/www.asem.au.dk/publications/MOOCs_and_Educational_Challenges_arou...
2. Troublesome tensions…
Wang Ying, 2015
2. Troublesome tensions…
Wang Ying, 2015
Jansen,	 D.,	 &	 Schuwer,	 R.	 (2015).	 Ins$tu$onal	 MOOC	
strategies	in	Europe	Status	report	based	on	a	mapping	survey	
c...
“It will not be possible to satisfy the rising
demand for Higher Education, especially
in developing countries, by relying...
Blended, Online and Distance
(BOLD) education is booming but
the level of concern is increasing
throughout the world.
Tens...
http://www.studyportals.com
2. Troublesome tensions…
2015 - 35 million learners
2014 - 18 million learners
http://www.onlinecoursereport.com/state-of-the-mooc-2016-a-year-of-m...
Worldwide
2. Troublesome tensions…
Worldwide
75%
English
Language
2. Troublesome tensions…
Allan, I., & Seaman, J. (2015). Grade level: Tackling online education in the United States. Babson Survey
Research Group ...
UK Open University
Woodley, A., & Simpson, O. (2014). Student dropout: The elephant in the room (pp. 459-483). In O. Zawac...
http://www.icde.org
2. Troublesome tensions…
2. Troublesome tensions…
http://student.success.ie
2. Troublesome tensions…
http://student.success.ie
2. Troublesome tensions…
2. Troublesome tensions…
2. Troublesome tensions…
2. Troublesome tensions…
http://student.success.ie
2. Troublesome tensions…
2. Troublesome tensions…
http://student.success.ie
While the benefits of higher
education have been quantified we
know very little about the societal
and economic returns on...
Ireland
NZ
Education at a Glance…
United States
2. Troublesome tensions…
Stiles, J., Hout, M., & Brady, H. (2012). California’s economic payoff: Investing in college and completion. Available fro...
2. Troublesome tensions…
“There is also almost no understanding of
the private and social [public] benefits of
distance and online education in com...
In New Zealand…
2. Troublesome tensions…
6. “National funding frameworks should create
incentives… for higher education
institutions to open up education, to
devel...
Callender, C. (2015). Putting part-time students at the heart of the system? In N. Hillman (ed.). It’s the finance, stupid...
2.7%
Higher Education Authority. (2014). Higher education system performance. First report 2014-2016. Available from http:...
3. Education for a better future…
3. Education for a better future…
What are some of
the major change forces
shaping the future of higher education?
What are some of
the major change forces
shaping the future of higher education?
• Globalization
• Population Mobility
• D...
3. Education for a better future…
“Despite huge advancements in
technology over the last 50 years, the
wealth gap between developed and
developing countries...
World Bank Group. (2016). Digital dividends: World development report. Washington: A World Bank Group
Flagship Report.
3. ...
Global Attitudes Project, Pew Research, 2011
http://www.pewglobal.org/2011/11/17/the-american-western-european-values-gap/...
Jansen,	D.,	&	Schuwer,	R.	(2015).	Ins$tu$onal	MOOC	strategies	in	Europe	Status	report	based	on	a	mapping	survey	conducted	...
What type of
education system do
we want the use of new
digital technology
to serve?
Framing question…
3. Education for a ...
The current emphasis on education in change
needs to shift to the language
of education for change.
3. Education for a bet...
3. Education for a better future…
3. Education for a better future…
3. Education for a better future…
3. Education for a better future…
3. Education for a better future…
3. Education for a better future…
3. Education for a better future…
3. Education for a better future…
3. Education for a better future…
http://www.portlandpresspublishing.com/content/wenner-gren-international-series-volume-88
3. Education for a better future…
“A prudent question is one-half of wisdom”
Francis Bacon
http://www.slideshare.net/mbrownz
Questions…
Conclusion
In summary…
• State of the actual
• More questions than answers
• Importance of clear moral compass
Conclusion
Conclusion
“If new models of distance
education (including the use
of learning analytics) provide
a dream solution for hig...
Access
Quality
Cost
Iron
Triangle
Conclusion
“Learning
analytics
should be in
the service of
big ideas,
not as a big idea
in itself” (adapted from Barnett, 2011).
Conc...
Go raibh
maith
agaibh!
Professor Mark Brown
Director, National Institute for Digital Learning
www.dcu.ie/nidlmark.brown@dcu.ie
@mbrownz www.slide...
The Story of Distance Education: The Future Is Not What It Used To Be
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The Story of Distance Education: The Future Is Not What It Used To Be

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Invited presentation at Beijing Normal University, Wednesday 8th June, 2016.

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The Story of Distance Education: The Future Is Not What It Used To Be

  1. 1. Professor Mark Brown Director, National Institute for Digital Learning Beijing, China Wednesday 8th June 2016 The Story of Distance Education: The Future Is Not What It Used To Be
  2. 2. National Institute for Digital Learning • DCU Connected • Teaching Enhancement • Digital Learning Research
  3. 3. @mbrownz
  4. 4. Outline… 1. Failed predictions 2. Troublesome tensions 3. Education for a better future The Story of Distance Education: The Future Is Not What It Used To Be
  5. 5. Key question… “If new models of distance education (including the use of learning analytics) provide a dream solution for higher education, then what is the problem?”
  6. 6. The Rhetoric Reality Gap Key message…
  7. 7. This presentation is NOT limited to a focus on just learning analytics Key warning…
  8. 8. 1. Failed predictions…
  9. 9. What technology is likely to have the greatest impact on higher education by 2027? 1. Failed predictions…
  10. 10. “The student who has prepared a certain number of lessons in the correspondence school knows more of the subject treated in those lessons, and knows it better, than the student who has covered the same ground in the classroom.” Soon, he predicted, “the work done by correspondence will be greater in amount than that done in the classrooms of our academies and colleges.” Yale Professor William Rainey Harper - 1885 1. Failed predictions…
  11. 11. “With the coming of the New Media, the need for print on paper will rapidly diminish. The day will soon arrive when the world’s literature will be available from The Automatic Library at the mere pressing of a button” (Uzanne, 1994). 1. Failed predictions…
  12. 12. “With the coming of the New Media, the need for print on paper will rapidly diminish. The day will soon arrive when the world’s literature will be available from The Automatic Library at the mere pressing of a button” (Uzanne, 1894). 1. Failed predictions…
  13. 13. “Books will soon be obsolete in public schools. Scholars will be instructed through the eye. It is possible to teach every branch of human knowledge with the motion picture”. (Thomas Edison, 1912) 1. Failed predictions…
  14. 14. “I believe that the motion picture is destined to revolutionize our educational system and that in a few years it will supplant largely, if not entirely, the use of textbooks,” (Thomas Edison, 1922) 1. Failed predictions…
  15. 15. “The central and dominant aim of education by radio is to bring the world to the classroom, to make universally available the services of the finest teachers, the inspiration of the greatest leaders... and unfolding world events which through the radio may come as a vibrant and challenging textbook of the air.” Benjamin Darrow 1932 Director of Ohio School of the Air 1. Failed predictions…
  16. 16. “We will undoubtedly have lectures of every conceivable kind presented to us right in our homes, when practical television arrives, possibly a year or two off.” Short Wave Craft, 1935 1. Failed predictions…
  17. 17. 1. Failed predictions… “It happens every day! Many so c a l l e d ‘ s l o w students’ learn to type and then show up on the honor roll.” https://larrycuban.wordpress.com
  18. 18. “Modern educators and psychologists have found, through thousands of tests in the nations schools, that “typewriter” children do better work… get from 10% to 30% higher grades...” https://twitter.com/audreywatters/status/719231612865544192 1. Failed predictions…
  19. 19. 1. Failed predictions… “Your teaching efforts are more effective. Pupils comprehend faster with the brighter, more detailed image.” https://larrycuban.wordpress.com
  20. 20. Project Plato – 1960s 1. Failed predictions…
  21. 21. Project Plato – 1960s 1. Failed predictions…
  22. 22. Cuban, L. (1986). Teachers and machines: The classroom use of technology since 1920. New York: Teachers’ College Press. Technology Expectation Cycle (1986) High Expectations Subsided Enthusiasm Growing Support 1. Failed predictions…
  23. 23. Gartner Hype Cycle “Technology-enhanced learning involves an ongoing cycle of hype, hope and disappointment” (Gouseti, 2010). MOOCs (THE, 2014) 1. Failed predictions…
  24. 24. Gartner Hype Cycle “Technology-enhanced learning involves an ongoing cycle of hype, hope and disappointment” (Gouseti, 2010). MOOCs 1. Failed predictions… 2016
  25. 25. “Resilience requires adaptation and evolution to new environmental conditions, but retains core identity” (Weller & Anderson, 2013, p.55). 1. Failed predictions…
  26. 26. 1. Failed predictions…
  27. 27. “In 50 years… there will be only 10 institutions in the world delivering higher education and Udacity has a shot at being one of them” (cited in Leckart, 2013, P.28) In a March 2012 Wired cover story, Sebastian Thrun predicted: 1. Failed predictions…
  28. 28. “According to the hype cycle model, MOOCs should now be exiting the ‘trough of disillusionment’ and entering a period of ‘enlightenment’ as second-generation products and services come onto the market (Linacre, 2014, P.4) United States 1. Failed predictions…
  29. 29. Allen, E., & Seaman, J., with Poulin, R., & Taylor Straut, T. (2016). Online report card: Tracking online education in the United States. Babson Survey Research Group and Quahog Research Group. 59% 11% 1. Failed predictions…
  30. 30. Students’ experiences with MOOCs https://library.educause.edu/resources/2015/8/2015-student-and-faculty-technology-research-studies 1. Failed predictions…
  31. 31. 1. Failed predictions…
  32. 32. “Big data, powerful analytical tools, and sophisticated data mining techniques is poised to spark a revolution in how education is delivered and in how the efficacy of that education is measured” (ECAR Working Report, 2015, p. 1). http://net.educause.edu/ir/library/pdf/ewg1510.pdf 1. Failed predictions…
  33. 33. 1. Failed predictions…
  34. 34. 1. Failed predictions… http://www.aupress.ca/index.php/books/120258
  35. 35. “We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.” Amara’s Law 1. Failed predictions…
  36. 36. 1. Failed predictions…
  37. 37. “A prudent question is one-half of wisdom” Francis Bacon http://www.slideshare.net/mbrownz Questions…
  38. 38. 2. Troublesome tensions…
  39. 39. What will be the greatest change to higher education by 2027? 2. Troublesome tensions…
  40. 40. Tension 1 The international demand for higher education is growing exponentially but relatively few universities around the world are exploring the potential of new models of online distance learning for full degrees. 2. Troublesome tensions…
  41. 41. Education at a Glance… 2. Troublesome tensions…
  42. 42. Allen, E., & Seaman, J., with Poulin, R., & Taylor Straut, T. (2016). Online report card: Tracking online education in the United States. Babson Survey Research Group and Quahog Research Group. 2% 2. Troublesome tensions…
  43. 43. Horrigan, J. (2016). Lifelong learning and technology. Pew Research Center. Available from http:// www.pewinternet.org/2016/03/22/lifelong-learning-and-technology/ 2. Troublesome tensions…
  44. 44. (Heinlein, 2015) 71% outside 2. Troublesome tensions…
  45. 45. 2. Troublesome tensions… http://asemlllhub.org/fileadmin/www.asem.au.dk/publications/MOOCs_and_Educational_Challenges_around_Asia_and_Europe_FINAL.pdf Editor Kim Bowen - 2015
  46. 46. 2. Troublesome tensions… Wang Ying, 2015
  47. 47. 2. Troublesome tensions… Wang Ying, 2015
  48. 48. Jansen, D., & Schuwer, R. (2015). Ins$tu$onal MOOC strategies in Europe Status report based on a mapping survey conducted in October - December 2014. EADTU – HOME project. EU EU MOOC Drivers 2. Troublesome tensions…
  49. 49. “It will not be possible to satisfy the rising demand for Higher Education, especially in developing countries, by relying on traditional approaches.” (Sir John Daniel, 2013) Past President, Commonwealth of Learning; Previous Vice-Chancellor, UK Open University 2. Troublesome tensions…
  50. 50. Blended, Online and Distance (BOLD) education is booming but the level of concern is increasing throughout the world. Tension 2 2. Troublesome tensions…
  51. 51. http://www.studyportals.com 2. Troublesome tensions…
  52. 52. 2015 - 35 million learners 2014 - 18 million learners http://www.onlinecoursereport.com/state-of-the-mooc-2016-a-year-of-massive-landscape-change-for-massive-open-online-courses/ 2. Troublesome tensions…
  53. 53. Worldwide 2. Troublesome tensions…
  54. 54. Worldwide 75% English Language 2. Troublesome tensions…
  55. 55. Allan, I., & Seaman, J. (2015). Grade level: Tackling online education in the United States. Babson Survey Research Group and Quahog Research Group, LLC. 2. Troublesome tensions…
  56. 56. UK Open University Woodley, A., & Simpson, O. (2014). Student dropout: The elephant in the room (pp. 459-483). In O. Zawacki-Richter & T. Anderson (Eds.). Online distance education: Towards a research agenda. Athabasca: AU Press. 2. Troublesome tensions…
  57. 57. http://www.icde.org 2. Troublesome tensions…
  58. 58. 2. Troublesome tensions… http://student.success.ie
  59. 59. 2. Troublesome tensions… http://student.success.ie
  60. 60. 2. Troublesome tensions…
  61. 61. 2. Troublesome tensions…
  62. 62. 2. Troublesome tensions…
  63. 63. 2. Troublesome tensions… http://student.success.ie
  64. 64. 2. Troublesome tensions…
  65. 65. 2. Troublesome tensions… http://student.success.ie
  66. 66. While the benefits of higher education have been quantified we know very little about the societal and economic returns on investment for the subset of off-campus online distance learners. Tension 3 2. Troublesome tensions…
  67. 67. Ireland NZ Education at a Glance… United States 2. Troublesome tensions…
  68. 68. Stiles, J., Hout, M., & Brady, H. (2012). California’s economic payoff: Investing in college and completion. Available from https://alumni.berkeley.edu/sites/default/files/Californias_Economic_Payoff_Executive_Summary.pdf 2. Troublesome tensions…
  69. 69. 2. Troublesome tensions…
  70. 70. “There is also almost no understanding of the private and social [public] benefits of distance and online education in comparison with those of face-to-face education” (Rumble, 2014, p.208). Rumble, G. (2014). The costs and economics of online distance education (pp. 197-216). In O. Zawacki-Richter & T. Anderson (Eds.). Online distance education: Towards a research agenda. Athabasca: AU Press. 2. Troublesome tensions…
  71. 71. In New Zealand… 2. Troublesome tensions…
  72. 72. 6. “National funding frameworks should create incentives… for higher education institutions to open up education, to develop more flexible modes of delivery and to diversify their student population.” Recommendations 2. Troublesome tensions…
  73. 73. Callender, C. (2015). Putting part-time students at the heart of the system? In N. Hillman (ed.). It’s the finance, stupid: The decline of part-time higher education and what to do about it. Oxford: UK: Higher Education Policy Institute. Available from http:// www.hepi.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/part-time_web.pdf 2. Troublesome tensions…
  74. 74. 2.7% Higher Education Authority. (2014). Higher education system performance. First report 2014-2016. Available from http:// www.hea.ie/sites/default/files/final_volume_i_system_report_with_cover_letter_.pdf 2. Troublesome tensions…
  75. 75. 3. Education for a better future…
  76. 76. 3. Education for a better future… What are some of the major change forces shaping the future of higher education?
  77. 77. What are some of the major change forces shaping the future of higher education? • Globalization • Population Mobility • Demographic Changes • Changing Nature of Work • The Cost of Higher Education 3. Education for a better future…
  78. 78. 3. Education for a better future…
  79. 79. “Despite huge advancements in technology over the last 50 years, the wealth gap between developed and developing countries has more than doubled” (John Pilger, 2002). 3. Education for a better future…
  80. 80. World Bank Group. (2016). Digital dividends: World development report. Washington: A World Bank Group Flagship Report. 3. Education for a better future…
  81. 81. Global Attitudes Project, Pew Research, 2011 http://www.pewglobal.org/2011/11/17/the-american-western-european-values-gap/ The American-Western European Values Gap 3. Education for a better future…
  82. 82. Jansen, D., & Schuwer, R. (2015). Ins$tu$onal MOOC strategies in Europe Status report based on a mapping survey conducted in October - December 2014. EADTU – HOME project. Available from hJp://eadtu.eu/documents/PublicaOons/OEenM/ InsOtuOonal_MOOC_strategies_in_Europe.pdf 3. Education for a better future…
  83. 83. What type of education system do we want the use of new digital technology to serve? Framing question… 3. Education for a better future…
  84. 84. The current emphasis on education in change needs to shift to the language of education for change. 3. Education for a better future…
  85. 85. 3. Education for a better future…
  86. 86. 3. Education for a better future…
  87. 87. 3. Education for a better future…
  88. 88. 3. Education for a better future…
  89. 89. 3. Education for a better future…
  90. 90. 3. Education for a better future…
  91. 91. 3. Education for a better future…
  92. 92. 3. Education for a better future…
  93. 93. 3. Education for a better future…
  94. 94. http://www.portlandpresspublishing.com/content/wenner-gren-international-series-volume-88 3. Education for a better future…
  95. 95. “A prudent question is one-half of wisdom” Francis Bacon http://www.slideshare.net/mbrownz Questions…
  96. 96. Conclusion In summary… • State of the actual • More questions than answers • Importance of clear moral compass
  97. 97. Conclusion
  98. 98. Conclusion “If new models of distance education (including the use of learning analytics) provide a dream solution for higher education, then what is the problem?”
  99. 99. Access Quality Cost Iron Triangle Conclusion
  100. 100. “Learning analytics should be in the service of big ideas, not as a big idea in itself” (adapted from Barnett, 2011). Conclusion
  101. 101. Go raibh maith agaibh!
  102. 102. Professor Mark Brown Director, National Institute for Digital Learning www.dcu.ie/nidlmark.brown@dcu.ie @mbrownz www.slideshare.net/mbrownz

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