Over the next ten years, connectivity will increasingly become the norm in vehicles. Today the automotive sector is dominated by after-market devices such as satellite navigation or stolen vehicle recovery devices. Between now and 2020, however, the focus will shift as the number of vehicles with built-in platforms grows. The drivers for growth are two-fold. Firstly Automotive OEMs are seeking to differentiate their offering and build new revenue streams. Secondly, plug-in electric vehicles, which will account for an increasing proportion of new vehicles, will demand connectivity. By 2020, Machina Research anticipates that 90% of new passenger cars sold will have some form of vehicle platform, up from less than 10% today. Between now and 2020 built-in connectivity will increasingly become a must-have in vehicles. It will become an integral part of the driving experience. Machina Research has sought to value the impact of this improvement in the driving experience, and the increasing necessity of connectivity. Nominally USD600 billion, or 20% of the value of new connected vehicles, can be attributed to the Connected Life in 2020.
Today healthcare is a massive government and private expense. Health spending in the OECD (which accounts for 70% of the world economy) today is USD5 trillion (of which 40% is private). With populations aging worldwide this expense can be expected to grow rapidly both in absolute terms and as a proportion of GDP. Clearly, reducing the ‘unit cost’ of healthcare will be a priority over the coming decade. In particular, there is a huge benefit to be gained from the remote monitoring of the condition of patients with serious chronic illnesses such as heart disease. Such monitoring improves the subject’s quality of life, improves the care that they receive and reduces the cost of delivering it. In 2020, Machina Research estimates that the use of clinical remote monitoring will generate USD350 billion in healthcare cost savings and benefits from pre-emptive action.
The world’s population is aging. The proportion of the people over the age of 60 is expected to rise from 11% to 14% between 2010 and 2020, and will continue to rise to 22% in 20501. The cost associated with caring for the infirm is set to grow dramatically, particularly in relation to the growth in working-age populations worldwide. Assisted living solutions are predominantly aimed at enabling the continuing independence of old and infirm people. This includes a range of applications from the more consumer electronics style Vitality Glow-Caps medicine dispensers and people tracking devices, through to comprehensive living solutions. As well as the emotional benefit that results from postponing or mitigating the need to move to a care home, there is also a cost saving associated with people remaining in their own home compared to the cost of moving to a care home. Machina Research estimates that in 2020 the saving associated with people being supported in their own homes rather than care homes will be USD270 billion.
The three principal elements of private building security (alarms, CCTV and intercoms) can benefit substantially from being wide-area connected in terms of providing enhanced remote monitoring and flexible security management. Wide-area connected security systems can both be a more effective deterrent (through provision of a higher quality solution), and also cheaper (through more efficient resource allocation). The value of connected security systems, based on the cost of providing equivalent levels of cover without connectivity is valued at USD250 billion worldwide in 2020.
The next ten years will see a rapid take-off in pay-as-you-drive car insurance that charges users according to driving behaviour. The addition of connectivity facilitates a range of new pricing options and PAYD will ultimately become the norm. One recent example is the pay-as-you-drive insurance policy launched the UK’s Automobile Association (AA) in February 20122. The AA claims that drivers can save up to GBP850 (USD1,300) per year. By 2020 Machina Research estimates that globally USD210 billion will be spent on connected car insurance policies. Insurance companies are also set to benefit to the tune of USD35 billion from increased efficiency and improvements in customer service.
The addition of connectivity in road vehicles brings added value to a number of sectors and facilitates a range of new business models. The car-hire business, for instance, will benefit significantly from having its vehicles connected, for instance by facilitating tracking and remote access. Further to this, we will see the continuing growth in flexible alternatives to traditional car ownership. For instance, the ability to locate and access vehicles and implement real-time charging will encourage the growth of share car schemes. It will also allow for a greater variety of hire purchase-type arrangements. Machina Research estimates that these new business models for car usage will represent USD150bn in additional revenue and USD75bn cost savings for vehicle users.
Between 2011 and 2020 Machina Research expects the number of smart meters deployed globally to increase from 130 million at the end of 2011 to 1.5 billion in 2020. There are several drivers behind these figures. Most notable is government regulation, but there are other benefits to utility companies which encourage them to be proactive about deployment above and beyond what is required by law. The direct benefits that accrue include remote meter reading and a reduction in ‘non-technical losses’, i.e. fraud and theft. Machina Research estimates that automated meter reading will save utilities USD20 billion in 2020. In addition to the cost benefits to the utilities, there are also demonstrable benefits in terms of cost savings for the end user. It has been shown in trials that people who have smart meters reduce their usage by 3-13%3. This is based on changed behaviour, rather than building automation (as described in section 3.10 below). Based on a conservative assumption, this translates to USD85 billion in cost savings for consumers in 2020. Over time the potential savings are assumed to fall slightly as more savings are achieved through building automation. Beyond these direct benefits to utilities, there are a number of less tangible, but nevertheless consequential, benefits. Most notable is the ability of utilities to leverage load balancing of electricity demand to reduce the requirements for building additional generating capacity.
The number of cars on the world’s roads is set to increase from 900 million in 2011 to 1.2 billion in 2020. In order to ensure that cities can cope with this growth, government is increasingly turning to connected traffic management solutions. This includes road signs, congestion charging schemes and road tolling aimed at both improving the efficiency of traffic flow and also reducing the number of vehicles at peak times (and, of course, generating revenue). Many of these solutions have already been implemented today. By 2020 the revenue generated by connected tolling, road charging and congestion charging will have reached USD100 billion. Another key area of traffic management relates to parking spaces. There are substantial efficiencies to be gained by allowing cars to be guided directly to available spaces. One study from 2006 estimated that 5-10% of urban traffic (and up to 60% in small streets) is accounted for by vehicles looking for a parking space4. The parking fees associated with connected car parking space management will generate revenue of USD30 billion in 2020, as well as helping to reduce congestion and pollution.
The charging of electric vehicles will typically be a ‘connected’ activity. Drivers wanting to make use of public charging points will need to locate, book and pay for their charging, all of which requires connectivity. Even domestic use will benefit from connecting the charging process. EV charging will generate a huge additional demand resulting in much more requirement for load balancing, i.e. charging when electricity is cheap. Machina Research estimates that by 2020 the value of the connected charging process will run to USD75 billion.
There are huge energy savings to be made from automating a number of business and domestic appliances to ensure optimum use of energy. Connecting heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) and other appliances can substantially reduce power consumption. For instance, an HVAC system could be remotely activated when a householder is getting near home, rather than being given an arbitrary time to switch on. Connectivity can also be used to reduce consumption during times of peak electricity usage. For instance, fridges could be programmed to initiate defrost cycles during off-peak times and freezers could effectively ‘store’ off peak electricity by lowering storage temperatures when power is cheap, in both cases substantially reducing the cost of electricity consumed. Energy savings associated with connecting HVAC and other power management activities will generate savings of US$40 billion in 2020.
10 Connected Llfe Applications
10 HOT Connected Life Applications
Dr. Mazlan Abbas