Mark Svoboda National Drought Mitigation Center

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Mark Svoboda National Drought Mitigation Center

  1. 1. Mark Svoboda National Drought Mitigation Center Is There a Need for a Water Resources Monitor? With Contributions From: Harry Lins, USGS Phil Pasteris, USDA/NRCS Frank Richards, NOAA U.S. Water Resources Monitor Companion to the U.S Drought Monitor Reflecting 7-day average conditions ending May 27, 2003 Current Assessment Forecast Long-Term Supply Reservoir Conditions Links Explanation Water Emergency Water Warning Water Advisory Insufficient data for assessment Detailed explanation of data and procedures used to create these maps.
  2. 2. Water Resources Monitor - Overview Concept Questions Observational/Data Requirements Approach Next Steps
  3. 3. A proposed partnership between the USGS, NOAA, USDA and the NDMC Idea hatched in spring 2003 as a potential answer to the debate of 1 vs. 2 DM maps (short- and long-term drought) and as a better tool for the DM authors A consolidation of indices and indicators into one comprehensive national drought map by basin or hydrological unit The Water Resources Monitor would be updated monthly (?) providing for a general hydro assessment of water resources in the U.S. to compliment the Drought Monitor Water Monitor Concept
  4. 4. Is there a need for a hydro-oriented companion to the Drought Monitor? Who’s the audience? What’s needed to make it happen? Questions
  5. 5. Observational/Data Requirements Primary *surface water *reservoir *groundwater Others *snow *soil moisture *water supply forecasts *PRISM to address elevation
  6. 6. A Possible Approach Start w/ streamflow data Supplement as best as possible w/ other data Base analysis on HUC’s Use GIS/IMS as key tools Map depicts where impact occurs? Value added from experts/subjective assessment and interpretation of the objective factors Maintain web site and open listserver like the DM
  7. 7. Water Resources Monitor U.S. Water Resources Monitor Companion to the U.S Drought Monitor Reflecting 7-day average conditions ending May 27, 2003 Current Assessment Forecast Long-Term Supply Reservoir Conditions Links Explanation Water Emergency Water Warning Water Advisory Insufficient data for assessment Detailed explanation of data and procedures used to create these maps.
  8. 8. Water Resources Monitor U.S. Water Resources Monitor Companion to the U.S Drought Monitor Reflecting streamflow conditions ending Septermber 26, 2003 Current Assessment Forecast Long-Term Supply Reservoir Conditions Links 1-Day 7-Day 14-Day 28-Day Detailed explanation of data and procedures used to create these maps.
  9. 9. Water Resources Monitor U.S. Water Resources Monitor Companion to the U.S Drought Monitor Current Assessment Forecast Long-Term Supply Reservoir Conditions Links
  10. 10. Water Resources Monitor U.S. Water Resources Monitor Companion to the U.S Drought Monitor Current Assessment Forecast Long-Term Supply Reservoir Conditions Links
  11. 11. Issues Resources Not another “unfunded mandate” Who does it? Lack of adequate observations (current and historical) Can this product better address the fundamental question of significant rains and how they impact short- vs. long-term recovery Better approach to account for elevation
  12. 12. The North America Drought Monitor - Overview History – Background - Objectives Participants Procedure Input Indicators User Feedback
  13. 13. The North America Drought Monitor Primary Participants U.S. NCDC, US Dept. of Agriculture, Climate Prediction Center and National Drought Mitigation Center Canada Agriculture and Agrifood Canada Meteorological Service of Canada Mexico National Meteorological Service of Mexico (SMN - Servicio Meteorologico Nacional) Comision Nacional del Agua
  14. 14. Evolution of the North America Drought Monitoring Effort November 2001 Meeting of Troika at NCDC to discuss assessment and monitoring of climate extremes across North America Decision to initiate assessment of extremes with most widespread problem – DROUGHT • Develop monitoring program similar to U.S. Drought Monitor
  15. 15. Evolution of the North America Drought Monitoring Effort April 2002 Combined U.S./North America Drought Monitor Workshop at NCDC One day devoted to discussions on the new drought monitoring program for N. America December 2002 First experimental North America Drought Monitor Map completed
  16. 16. Development of Monthly NADM Map NCDC receive, process, ingest daily/monthly station data (Tx, Tn, P, SF) from U.S., Canada, Mexico NCDC compute continental-scale input indicators Monthly station SPI, PCTPCP, Palmer Drought Index NADM Author prepare first draft map From continental-scale indicators & national products Use USDM from month’s final week for U.S. depiction Draft map sent to each country’s experts for feedback Using ArcGIS NADM Author prepare final map & text Released on NCDC website by middle of following month
  17. 17. Data for Continental Indicators Mexico Precipitation data set development for Mexico (Art Douglas and Miguel Cortez) • 132 of the highest quality stations from a database of ~1000 stations • Begin in 1950 or earlier and continue to provide near-real-time reporting – Some merging of climatically similar stations – Quality controlled using nearby stations – Missing months estimated by using % of normal maps Temperature data set available soon • 65 high quality Observatory stations • Plus 67 additional stations
  18. 18. Data for Continental Indicators U.S. – Precipitation & Temperature Climate Division Database • 344 climate divisions in contiguous US with data from 1895 through the previous month – Using climate division data as surrogate stations – Centroid of climate division 15 stations added along US/Mexico border ASOS data for Alaska (planned) • Climate division data begins in 1931 but is not available until 3 to 4 months after the end of the month
  19. 19. Data for Continental Indicators Canada – Precipitation & Temperature Database of ~800 stations, many (~200-300) with near-real- time reporting Most stations in southern Canada Homogeneity adjustments to daily data applied by Pasha Groisman before monthly totals calculated • Rainfall: 1. Adjustment for the instrument and observation practice changes in the 1970s (peak of changes in 1977); 2. Small wind undercatch scale correction (factor 1.02) • Snowfall: 1. Reduction of snow ruler to snow gauge measurements (everywhere); at 540 stations where the switch from ruler to gauge was made in 1960s this affects the homogeneity of time series. 2. Constant wind undercatch scale correction (factor 10/9).
  20. 20. NADM Input Indicators Continental-Scale Indices & Indicators Standardized Precipitation Index Palmer Drought Index (available soon) Percent of Normal Precipitation SSM/I Wetness Satellite Vegetation Health Index Other Streamflow Dugout Levels* *Canada only
  21. 21. Continental-Scale Indicators Standardizing Period: 1951-2001 (for PCTPCP, SPI, PDI) Guidance for drought category boundaries across international borders
  22. 22. Continental-Scale Indicators SSM/I Wetness Soil wetness in top layers 1988-present period of record Satellite Vegetation Health Index
  23. 23. Continental-Scale Indicators Station Network Density in Canada Coarse Results in Unreliable Contours
  24. 24. Producing Dot Maps for North America, Contour Maps for U.S.-Mexico * Denser Network of Stations Needed for Contours in Canada
  25. 25. North America Drought Monitor Strengths Continental-scale depiction of drought Consistent across international borders Pool resources, increase communication Future Goals Move U.S. from climate divisions to station network Increase spatial density of stations across North America
  26. 26. NADM Web Site http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/moni toring/drought/nadm/index.html
  27. 27. NADM Web Site http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/monitor ing/drought/nadm/index.html USDM Web Site http://drought.unl.edu/dm/ NADM Workshop June 25-27, 2003, Asheville, NC, USA http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2003/NADM- workshop/nadm-workshop03avl.html

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