Week 5 Disruption

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Disruption caused by technical innovations of Web 2.0 and pervasive broadband by industry sector

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Week 5 Disruption

  1. 1. CS 292: Beyond the One Way Web Matthew Jett Hall, Spring 2008 http://beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com
  2. 2. <ul><li>Shell Global Scenarios Overview </li></ul><ul><li>Blogging Iran: Esfandiar Zafar </li></ul><ul><li>What is Disruption? </li></ul><ul><li>Impacted Industries </li></ul><ul><li>Chapter 4 Summary </li></ul>CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)
  3. 3. CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)
  4. 4. <ul><li>The Three Global Scenarios </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Low Trust Globalisation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Open Doors </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Flags </li></ul></ul><ul><li>How do these scenarios impact </li></ul><ul><ul><li>… IT Professional? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>… individuals? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>… governments? </li></ul></ul>CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)
  5. 5. <ul><li>Response To </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Technology </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Terrorism </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Bad Corporate Conduct </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Generates </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Regulatory Compliance </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Accounting and Auditing (Logging) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>E-Discovery (Preservation and Protocol) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>State Censorship </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Increase in Security / Decrease in Trust </li></ul></ul>CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)
  6. 6. <ul><li>Blogging </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Drivers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Rate of Growth </li></ul></ul><ul><li>State of Blogging in Iran </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Motivations </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Penetration </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Infrastructure used </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Limitations, Filtering </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Sample blogs </li></ul>CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)
  7. 7. <ul><li>“ Low Cost” of online Publishing </li></ul><ul><li>Another medium of communication </li></ul><ul><li>Low cost of entry </li></ul><ul><li>As easy of writing an email </li></ul><ul><li>Enhanced by pictures and podcasting </li></ul><ul><li>Ability to comment </li></ul><ul><li>And now mobile posting </li></ul>CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)
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  13. 13. <ul><li>Islamic republic in 1979 </li></ul><ul><li>1980-88, Iran-Iraq War </li></ul><ul><li>Isolated by sanctions </li></ul><ul><li>Population </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Doubled in under 30 yrs </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Large ex-pat community </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Reformer: President Khatami ‘97 – ‘05 </li></ul><ul><li>President Mahmud AHMADI-NEJAD ‘05 - Present </li></ul>CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com) Source: google earth
  14. 14. <ul><li>Youth culture pushing the envelope </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Seeking a medium to self express </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Thirst for knowledge and information </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Lack of trust in government </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Restrictions in social gatherings </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Religious </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Cultural </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Restrictions in publishing and media </li></ul>CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)
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  19. 21. <ul><li>IR - 70,431,905 population - Country size: 1,648,195 sq km </li></ul><ul><li>Capital City: Tehran - population 7,185,831 ('07) </li></ul><ul><li>18,000,000 users as of Aug/07, 25.6% penetration, per ITU. </li></ul><ul><li>465,100 Broadband Internet connections as of Sept/07, per ITU </li></ul><ul><li>Source: http://www.internetworldstats.com/ </li></ul>CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)
  20. 22. CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com) <ul><li>Conclusions : </li></ul><ul><li>Tremendous growth in Internet usage over 7 years </li></ul><ul><li>Substantial portion of total Internet adoption in Middle East </li></ul><ul><li>Amplifies the youth culture’s ability to </li></ul><ul><ul><li>challenge authority </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>access the world’s popular culture </li></ul></ul>Population 2007 Est. Usage 2000 Usage Latest Data % Population % of M.E. 7 Year Usage Growth Iran 65,397,521 250,000 18,000,000 27.5% 53.7% 7,100.0% Middle East 192,755,045 3,284,800 33,510,500 17.4% 100% 920.2%
  21. 23. <ul><li>Persian Blog </li></ul><ul><li>BlogFa </li></ul><ul><li>Blog Sky </li></ul><ul><li>Mihan Blog </li></ul><ul><li>Parsi Blog </li></ul>CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)
  22. 24. <ul><li>www.wordpress.org </li></ul><ul><li>www.youtube.com </li></ul><ul><li>… </li></ul>CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)
  23. 25. <ul><li>OpenNet Initiative </li></ul><ul><li>Most Restrictive Filtering </li></ul><ul><ul><li>China </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Iran </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Detailed Report on Iran 2004-2005 </li></ul>CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)
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  25. 27. <ul><li>Government and/or ISPs? </li></ul><ul><li>Persian Text reads: </li></ul><ul><li>“ Dear Customer </li></ul><ul><li>Access to this site is not possible.” </li></ul><ul><li>Captured from a blog in Persian </li></ul>CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)
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  28. 30. <ul><li>Back of a bus seat in Tehran </li></ul><ul><li>Persian text reads “fast filter breaker” </li></ul>CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)
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  30. 32. <ul><li>Discussing gOS and Web 2.0 </li></ul>CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)
  31. 33. <ul><li>Persian blog entry on how to pass filters to access Google, Gmail, Blogfa </li></ul>CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)
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  33. 35. CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)
  34. 36. CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)
  35. 37. <ul><li>“ The action of rending or bursting asunder; violent dissolution of continuity; forcible severance. “ (OED) </li></ul><ul><li>Out with the old, in with new! </li></ul><ul><li>Sources </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Social Change: Revolution </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Technical Innovation: Obsolescence </li></ul></ul>CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)
  36. 38. <ul><li>When an industry is disrupted </li></ul><ul><ul><li>It impacts that industry </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>It impacts the suppliers of that industry </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>It impacts the sellers of the products </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>It impacts the people transporting the products </li></ul></ul>CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)
  37. 39. CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com) CIA World Factbook: July 2007 Age Male Female Total 0-14 31,152,050 29,777,438 60,929,488 15-64 100,995,752 101,365,035 202,360,787 65+ 15,858,477 21,991,195 37,849,672 Total 148,006,279 153,133,668 301,139,947
  38. 40. CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com) http://www.pewinternet.org/ Web 2.0
  39. 41. <ul><li>Notice emergence – late ‘04 / ‘05 </li></ul>CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com) Web 2.0
  40. 42. <ul><li>Learning and Dissemination </li></ul><ul><li>Broadcast and Print </li></ul><ul><li>Advertising </li></ul><ul><li>Health Care </li></ul><ul><li>Research </li></ul><ul><li>Politics </li></ul><ul><li>Shopping </li></ul>CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)
  41. 43. <ul><li>How do you meet your reference needs? </li></ul><ul><li>How do you learn? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Classroom? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Recorded Lecture </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Live Lecture </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>E-Learning </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Computer Based Training? </li></ul></ul>CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)
  42. 44. <ul><li>“ A type of web page designed so that its content can be edited by anyone who accesses it, using a simplified markup language.” wiki, n. &quot; The Oxford English Dictionary . 2nd ed. 1989. OED Online . Oxford University Press. </li></ul>CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)
  43. 45. <ul><li>WIKIPEDIA </li></ul><ul><li>2001: Wiki Software and Web Server from a dude in St. Pete </li></ul><ul><li>Utilizes wiki social editing </li></ul><ul><li>Donation supported </li></ul><ul><li>Style and structure defined by the contributor </li></ul><ul><li>“ Our goal is to get to Britannica quality, or better.” Jimmy Wales, Founder </li></ul><ul><li>BRITANNICA </li></ul><ul><li>“ December 1768, and the whole work was completed in 1771 in three volumes containing 2,391 pages, four folded leaves of unnumbered tables, and 160 copperplates” </li></ul><ul><li>Professional editors” </li></ul><ul><li>Revenue model </li></ul><ul><li>Style and structure defined by the editorial process </li></ul><ul><li>Gold Standard for information quality </li></ul>CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)
  44. 46. CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)
  45. 47. <ul><li>1974 : The 15th edition was given a world point of view by more than 4,000 contributing authors from more than 100 countries. The editorial creation of the work cost $32 million exclusive of printing costs, representing the largest single private investment in publishing history up to that time. </li></ul><ul><li>“ Encyclopædia Britannica .&quot; Encyclopædia Britannica . 2008. Encyclopædia Britannica Online.  < http://search.eb.com/eb/article-2112 >. </li></ul>CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)
  46. 48. <ul><li>December 2005: Nature magazine “Internet encyclopaedias go head to head” by Jim Giles </li></ul><ul><li>42 entries examined </li></ul><ul><ul><li>“ the average science entry in Wikipedia contained around four inaccuracies; Britannica, about three.” </li></ul></ul>CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)
  47. 49. CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com) Date # Articles Increase from Previous Year 1/1/2002 19,700 19,700 1/1/2003 96,500 76,800 1/1/2004 188,800 92,300 1/1/2005 438,500 249,700 1/1/2006 895,000 456,500 1/1/2007 1,560,000 665,000 1/1/2008 2,153,000 593,000
  48. 50. <ul><li>Compression of Time </li></ul><ul><li>Compression of Distance </li></ul><ul><li>Modes of Learning </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Live Lecture </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Recorded Lecture </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Interactive Seminar </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Asynchronous / Interactive </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Question: Is Face to Face / Live Better? </li></ul></ul>CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)
  49. 51. <ul><li>Course Management Systems </li></ul><ul><li>Telepresence </li></ul><ul><li>Messages come to you, not to a desk </li></ul>CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)
  50. 52. CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)
  51. 53. <ul><li>Anywhere Learning </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Technical Certifications </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>CISSP, Network+, Security+ </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Instructor Led </li></ul><ul><li>Through web based conferencing </li></ul>CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)
  52. 54. <ul><li>TRADITIONAL </li></ul><ul><li>Print </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Book </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Newspaper </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Magazines </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Advertising </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Yellow Pages </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Print </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Broadcast </li></ul><ul><li>DISRUPTION </li></ul><ul><li>Books </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Lulu.com </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Amazon kindle </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Newspaper </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Blogs </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>On-Line editions </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Advertising </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Search engines </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Reduction in print readership </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Dispersion of readership to sites of narrow, topical interest </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Broadcast </li></ul><ul><ul><li>ABC, CBS, NBC  Cable </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Cable  YOUTUBE </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>On-demand, digital distribution </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>DVR </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>What you want when you want it </li></ul></ul>CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)
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  54. 56. CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)
  55. 57. CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)
  56. 58. <ul><li>Are newspapers dead? </li></ul><ul><li>HBO – The Wire </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Episode 53 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Baltimore Sun </li></ul></ul>CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)
  57. 59. <ul><li>“ NAA is a nonprofit organization representing the $59 billion newspaper industry and more than 2,000 newspapers in the U.S. and Canada.” -  naa.org </li></ul>CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)
  58. 60. CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)
  59. 61. <ul><li>701 hits </li></ul><ul><li>It’s your work </li></ul><ul><li>You took someone and redirected their energy 701 times </li></ul><ul><li>They could have been reading the New York Times </li></ul><ul><li>They could have been watching CBS </li></ul><ul><li>Instead they were reading your blog! </li></ul>Your blog --- 701 Hits as of 6 Feb 08
  60. 62. <ul><li>Problem – how do I reach micro-markets? </li></ul><ul><li>Banner Ads </li></ul><ul><li>Flash Ads </li></ul><ul><li>Text Message Ads </li></ul><ul><li>Paid placement in search </li></ul><ul><li>Blog topic related ads </li></ul>CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)
  61. 63. <ul><li>Web 1.0 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Electronic Medical Record </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>CPOE </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Imaging and Diagnostics </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Web 2.0 moves towards </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Personalized </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Evidenced based medicine </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>On-demand </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>access to clinical records for patient and physician </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>access to clinical data regarding procedure outcomes </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>access to clinical data regarding pharmacological outcomes </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Error reduction and quality improvement </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Reduced Cycle Time </li></ul></ul>CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)
  62. 64. <ul><li>Personalized Medicine </li></ul><ul><li>On-Demand 24 x 7 x 365 </li></ul><ul><li>Physician & Patient Messaging </li></ul><ul><li>Yes privacy people -- that is my cholesterol </li></ul>CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)
  63. 65. CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)
  64. 66. <ul><li>Distributed Computation </li></ul><ul><ul><li>SETI </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Cancer </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Supercomputiing </li></ul><ul><li>National Cyber Infrastructure </li></ul><ul><li>Many </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Disciplines </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Researchers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>data sets </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Scientific instrumentation </li></ul></ul>CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)
  65. 67. <ul><li>Personal Crusades </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Utah Taser </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Bad Cop News </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Scandal </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Old School vs. 1.0 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Campaigning </li></ul>CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)
  66. 68. <ul><li>Old School – Rodney King </li></ul><ul><li>New School – Utah Taser Guy </li></ul>CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)
  67. 69. <ul><li>This author really loves the po-po </li></ul>CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)
  68. 70. <ul><li>Monica Lewinsky </li></ul><ul><li>+ </li></ul><ul><li>Bill Clinton </li></ul><ul><li>+ </li></ul><ul><li>HTTP+ TCP/IP </li></ul><ul><li>= </li></ul><ul><li>Major Scandal Spark </li></ul>CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)
  69. 71. CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)
  70. 72. <ul><li>June 17, 1972 </li></ul><ul><li>Watergate Hotel </li></ul><ul><li>Break In </li></ul><ul><li>Presidents </li></ul><ul><li>Reporters </li></ul><ul><li>Large Papers </li></ul><ul><li>Even a movie about the reporters! </li></ul>CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)
  71. 73. <ul><li>Youtube Debates </li></ul><ul><li>Question directly from the population </li></ul>CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)
  72. 74. <ul><li>Amazon.com rating systems </li></ul><ul><li>Netflix Reviews </li></ul><ul><li>It’s nice to know what others experienced before you buy your products! </li></ul><ul><li>Based upon your ratings, systems can now recommend things to you. </li></ul>CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)

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