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MEN OF VIOLENCE?THE DRIVERS OF PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR THE ENGLISH DEFENCELEAGUE (EDL)TERRORISM AND POLITICAL VIOLENCE ASSN MEE...
Four questions.1. Who sympathises with the EDL, and who joins?2. What are their core concerns?3. What are the most importa...
Data and Methods• Survey based on random sample of 1,666 respondents from @YouGov online panel• Weighted to profile of eli...
Social Profile – Who are they?Age Breakdown• Sympathy concentrated most heavily among citizens aged 45 and older• Membersh...
Social Profile – Who are they?Class Breakdown• EDL support is spread relatively evenly across social classes• Sympathy str...
Social Profile – Who are they?Working status• Only a very small minority of EDL supporters are unemployed• Some evidence E...
Social Profile – Who are they?Levels of Education• Both groups of EDL supporters characterised by low education levels• On...
Social Profile – Who are they?Property Status• Only a very small minority of EDL supporters are in social housing• Little ...
Social Profile – Who are they?Newspaper Readership• Both groups of EDL supporters tend to rely on tabloid newspapers• Wort...
Party IdentificationWhere is EDL support coming from politically?• Large majorities of EDL supporters identify with mainst...
Trust in Institutions% who say they ‘do not trust much’, or ‘at all’• EDL supports broadly reflective of wider trend: high...
Attitudes toward the Political Systemwhich statement comes closest to your view?• Only small minority of EDL supporters th...
Issue Priorities for EDL SupportersWhat are the most important issues facing country (tick three)?• Both groups of EDL sup...
Attitudes toward Islam, and Muslims% agreeing with statements• EDL supporters consistently more hostile than average towar...
Attitudes toward Immigration, and Minorities% agreeing with statements• EDL supporters consistently more likely than avera...
Attitudes toward Violence, and Intergroup Conflict% agreeing with statements• All EDL supporters consistently more likely ...
Attitudes toward Classical Racism Measures% agreeing with statements• Only a minority of EDL supporters endorse expression...
Drilling Down:What are the most important drivers of EDL support?• ‘Logistic regression analysis’ is a technique that allo...
What are the most important drivers?Predicted probabilities of significant predictors on EDL sympathy• Xenophobic hostilit...
What are the most important drivers?Predicted probabilities of significant predictors on EDL membership• Regression analys...
Lastly, What was the ‘Woolwich effect’ on EDL support?How likely would you be to consider joining the EDL?77911384619Would...
What was the ‘Woolwich effect’ on EDL support?Thinking about the EDL, which of these comes closest to yourview?N=1,571 (on...
Thanks.@GoodwinMJFull academic working paper at:http://nottingham.academia.edu/MatthewGoodwinChatham House report based on...
Men of Violence? The Drivers of Public Support for the English Defence League
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Men of Violence? The Drivers of Public Support for the English Defence League

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presentation for the 2013 Terrorism and Political Violence Conference, London.

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Men of Violence? The Drivers of Public Support for the English Defence League

  1. 1. MEN OF VIOLENCE?THE DRIVERS OF PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR THE ENGLISH DEFENCELEAGUE (EDL)TERRORISM AND POLITICAL VIOLENCE ASSN MEETING, LONDON, 2013Matthew Goodwin (co-authors David Cutts and Laurence Janta-Lipinski)@GoodwinMJ
  2. 2. Four questions.1. Who sympathises with the EDL, and who joins?2. What are their core concerns?3. What are the most important drivers of EDL support?4. Finally, what was the ‘Woolwich effect’ on EDL support?
  3. 3. Data and Methods• Survey based on random sample of 1,666 respondents from @YouGov online panel• Weighted to profile of eligible UK voters on basis of internet access, age, gender,social class, region, party ID and newspaper readership• Any biases introduced by method extremely small and offset by larger sample size• From these, we will examine 298 agree with EDL values: ‘EDL sympathisers’• And we will explore 124 who have/would consider: ‘EDL members’• Survey was undertaken October 21-22 2012 (during period of decline)• We’ll use these data for two tasks:1. To examine EDL sympathisers and members, compared to wider population2. To conduct logistic regression analysis to identify the key predictors of publicsupport for the EDL
  4. 4. Social Profile – Who are they?Age Breakdown• Sympathy concentrated most heavily among citizens aged 45 and older• Membership higher than average among 18-29 year olds16233129272225 262026 262818-29 Yrs 30-44 Yrs 45-59 Yrs 60 Yrs +EDL Sympathisers EDL Member Full Sample
  5. 5. Social Profile – Who are they?Class Breakdown• EDL support is spread relatively evenly across social classes• Sympathy stronger than average among skilled manual workers (C2)• Membership strongest among routine non-manual, semi-/unskilled workers252826222034192728 2921 22Professional/managerial Routine non-manual Skilled manual Semi/unskilled manualEDL Sympathizers EDL Members Full Sample
  6. 6. Social Profile – Who are they?Working status• Only a very small minority of EDL supporters are unemployed• Some evidence EDL members in more economically insecure positions501232639217154813423Work full-time Work part-time Unemployed RetiredEDL Sympathisers EDL Members Full Sample
  7. 7. Social Profile – Who are they?Levels of Education• Both groups of EDL supporters characterised by low education levels• Only limited evidence that members are especially low educated9391317 1812412052082717 1727No Qualifications GCSE/Secondary level A-Level Other post-16 quals Degree/PostgraduateEDL Sympathisers EDL Members Full Sample
  8. 8. Social Profile – Who are they?Property Status• Only a very small minority of EDL supporters are in social housing• Little evidence to support popular assumptions concerning social housing6971856112166721Own/mortgage Local authority rented Privately rented/otherEDL Sympathisers EDL Members Full Sample
  9. 9. Social Profile – Who are they?Newspaper Readership• Both groups of EDL supporters tend to rely on tabloid newspapers• Worth noting these criticized for irresponsible coverage of Islam/migration1810657189641025145012No paper Broadsheet Tabloid Other/local paperEDL Sympathisers EDL Members Full Sample
  10. 10. Party IdentificationWhere is EDL support coming from politically?• Large majorities of EDL supporters identify with mainstream parties• Both sympathisers and members more likely to identify with centre-right• No more likely than average to reject political parties25439311932341031193329121 220Labour Conservatives Lib Dems UKIP/BNP Other No partyEDL Sympathisers EDL Members Full sample
  11. 11. Trust in Institutions% who say they ‘do not trust much’, or ‘at all’• EDL supports broadly reflective of wider trend: high levels of distrust• But consistently more distrustful (with exception of journalists)• Members significantly more distrustful of police than average757985698546717785 8675 78517067757963753277Parliament MPs PoliticalpartiesLocalcouncillorsEuropeanUnionPolice JournalistsEDL Sympathisers EDL Members Full Sample
  12. 12. Attitudes toward the Political Systemwhich statement comes closest to your view?• Only small minority of EDL supporters think system is ‘completely broken’• Sympathisers especially likely to see ‘serious faults within the system’• But generally, these supporters do not appear to be giving up on system865232958179658282Completely broken andcannot be repairedSerious faults, thatneed to be addressedSome faults, but notthat seriousNothing wrong withthe systemEDL Sympathisers EDL Members Full Sample
  13. 13. Issue Priorities for EDL SupportersWhat are the most important issues facing country (tick three)?• Both groups of EDL supporters foremost concerned about immigration• Economy 2nd most imp. issue, but they are less likely than average to cite this issue• ‘Muslims in Britain’ distant third concern though members express strong concern74 7227 262191624025 27487912 1317Immigration &asylumEconomy Muslims inBritainEurope CrimeEDL Sympathisers EDL Member Full sample
  14. 14. Attitudes toward Islam, and Muslims% agreeing with statements• EDL supporters consistently more hostile than average toward Muslims and Islam• Interestingly, sympathizers consistently more hostile than members• Perceived threats from Muslims and Islam also strong among general population7680 80 808268647073624957524951ms not compatible with British lifeIslam a danger to Western civilisationGrowth of Muslims threatens survival of white BritishThere will be ‘clash of civilisations’ between Muslims and white BritonHigh Muslim birth rates threaten BriEDL Sympathisers EDL Members Full Sample
  15. 15. Attitudes toward Immigration, and Minorities% agreeing with statements• EDL supporters consistently more likely than average to express xenophobic views• Significantly more likely than average to associate migrants with negative effects• Further evidence that EDL support not single-issue in nature4679466771 694669487065 663066244442 40Send immigrantshome nowSend illegalimmigrants backto originImmigrants nothonest andhardworkingImmigrants badfor nationaleconomyImmigrantunderminecultural lifeBritain notbenefitting fromdiversityEDL Sympathisers EDL Members Full Sample
  16. 16. Attitudes toward Violence, and Intergroup Conflict% agreeing with statements• All EDL supporters consistently more likely than average to expect group conflicts• But it is members who are most likely to view violence as justifiable and necessary• Members three times as likely as sympathisers and public to consider violence7237295654542154621155Violence between differentethnic and racial groups isinevitableViolence against extremistsis justifiedViolence needed to protectgroup from threatsWould engage in violenceto achieve goalEDL Sympathisers EDL Members Full Sample
  17. 17. Attitudes toward Classical Racism Measures% agreeing with statements• Only a minority of EDL supporters endorse expressions of biological racism• Yet EDL members significantly more likely than sympathisers & full sample to do so• Points to a more openly racist inner core, surrounded by xenophobic circle ofsympathisers who mostly reject traditional, biological racism232033311311Non-whites are not as British as whites There is a difference in intelligence of Blackand WhiteEDL Sympathisers EDL Members Full Sample
  18. 18. Drilling Down:What are the most important drivers of EDL support?• ‘Logistic regression analysis’ is a technique that allows us to identify themost important predictors of EDL sympathy, and membership• We use as much data as possible, through ‘principal components factoranalysis’ (PCF) to aggregate questions that reflect particular ‘clusters’ ofattitudes. There are four of these clusters:o Classical racism (e.g. non-whites not British like whites)o Xenophobic hostility (e.g. Immigrants are not honest and hardworking)o Political dissatisfaction (e.g. distrust of parliament)o Pessimism and pro-violence (e.g. violence is inevitable, justified andnecessary)• We test for the impact of these attitudes (and also social characteristics)on the likelihood that somebody will sympathise with the EDL, or considerjoining the movement
  19. 19. What are the most important drivers?Predicted probabilities of significant predictors on EDL sympathy• Xenophobic hostility to minorities is the strongest predictor of EDL sympathy• Sympathy also prominent among citizens who anticipate group conflicts in the futureand who perceive violence as legitimate/necessary action• Voting for radical/extreme right parties also emerges a significant predictor ofwhether someone will sympathise with the EDL• It’s not just apathy: political dissatisfaction the least influential of four clusters
  20. 20. What are the most important drivers?Predicted probabilities of significant predictors on EDL membership• Regression analysis points to particular significance of poorly educated, tabloid-reading men between 18-29 years old• Whereas sympathisers heavily xenophobic, EDL membership predicted far morestrongly by classic racism, alongside pessimistic and pro-violent outlook. Whilexenophobia remains significant, it is less central to explaining membership• EDL has rallied a younger, harder and more racist core, but is surrounded by a widercircle of xenophobic sympathisers. Both groups are extremely pessimistic about thefuture of an increasingly diverse Britain
  21. 21. Lastly, What was the ‘Woolwich effect’ on EDL support?How likely would you be to consider joining the EDL?77911384619Would never join Would consider joiningConsider myself a member Dont knowPre-Woolwich (Oct 20-21) Post-Woolwich (May 23-24)N=1,571 (only asked to those who have heard of the EDL)
  22. 22. What was the ‘Woolwich effect’ on EDL support?Thinking about the EDL, which of these comes closest to yourview?N=1,571 (only asked to those who have heard of the EDL)32147293225223Agree with EDLvalues & methodsAgree with EDLvalues but notmethodsDo not agree withEDL values ormethodsDont knowPre-Woolwich (Oct 20-21) Post-Woolwich (May 23-24)
  23. 23. Thanks.@GoodwinMJFull academic working paper at:http://nottingham.academia.edu/MatthewGoodwinChatham House report based on data at:http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/189767

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