Market Expert Handout - North Shore Real Estate Market - May 2011

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This handout is provided to members of the @properties Market Expert program in conjunction with Keeping Current Matters. The enclosed information discusses factual information about the Chicago North Shore real estate market specifically - as well as local North Shore neighborhoods.

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Market Expert Handout - North Shore Real Estate Market - May 2011

  1. 1. Key points of Discussion – Market Expert Classes – May 2011After months of discussing the Keeping Current Matters materials, a key point that we mustfocus on as “Real Estate Advisors” is the presentation of layers of materials to justify our case.Pricing data is not enough to justify our position, we must build a tiered case of facts aroundALL factors that contribute to the real estate market of today.We know that some (but not all) of these contributing factors are as follows: • House pricing • Home buyer mentality • Mortgage rates • Consumer Confidence Index • Unemployment NumbersTo truly build our case for home pricing and purchase, we need to use ALL of these factorstogether when discussing our clients’ options. While we gather much of this information fromthe presentations of Steve Harney and his Keeping Current Matters team, the local numbersprovided today should assist in brining your arguments local.Some key points in these materials: 1. Crains Article – Great @properties promotion and the idea that home sellers are beginning to understand what they must do to sell. 2. Explaining Mortgage Deductions – a great article and link to online calculator that describes the benefits of owning a home 3. Rent or Buy – the New York Times and Trulia provide great data showing why Chicago is a better “buy” for home shoppers. 4. CAR Fast Stats – The Chicago Association of Realtors provides amazing data in various formats on units and sales price for many Chicago (and suburban) neighborhoods 5. Strategic Defaults – a recent article from Mary Ellen Podmolik of the Chicago Tribune describing the growing trend of strategic mortgage defaults. 6. Unemployment Numbers Decrease in Chicago – down to 8.7% Chicago unemployment numbers have decrease for the last 15 months and are now below National numbers.
  2. 2. 7. Consumer Confidence Grows – Last month the consumer confidence index posted its highest numbers since 2008. 8. Mortgage Rates – hit their highest mark in the last 12 months in February of 2011 causing some home buyers to write – while others wait to see. 9. Chicago “for sale” Inventory hits its lowest mark in the over 2 years 10. Long Term Effects of the Homebuyer Tax Credit – a year later we are starting to see signs of true recovery, without government intervention.The charts that follow are pulled for the Chicago market, (77 MLS areas), for all housing typescombined using the Agent Metrics program (available for download at www.MREDLLC.com).When discussing these numbers with one another take into account the tax credit dates (undercontract date – April 2010, closed contract date – August 2010* adjusted) as well as otherfactors such as consumer confidence, mortgage rates, and unemployment numbers. Thesefactors when explored and accounted for together, will help you to create a trustworthy “case”to justify your client advisement for their current, and future, well being.You are the solution to the current real estate market.
  3. 3. 5/20/2011 Print Story CHlCAGOBUSINES,S Print Story Printed from ChicagoBusiness.com - POWERil) IIY UAINS-Home > This Weeks Crains > Business of life >From this weeks Business of LifeHome sellers move beyond denial, accept lowervalues when setting price Article available at http://www.chicagobusiness.com/ article/20110507/ISSUE03/305079994/home-sellers-move-By: H. Lee Murphy May 09, 2011 beyond-denial-accept-lower-values-when-se Share This 14 Share Print 1 Email l 3 comments This is what passes for a victory in the housing market these days: Homeowners are no longer in denial about how little their properties will fetch. Several years into the downdraft in residential real estate, manysellers around Chicago have moved past shock, anger and disbelief, givi ng way to subdued resignation. Those w ho have stopped fighting their agents on pricing are allowing deals to be made quicker. "A lot has changed," says Elise Rinaldi , an agent in the @Properties office in lvlnnetka. "Three years ago, w hen this decline was still new, people insisted thatPamela Zdunek, left, recently sold her house on Old Green Bay the marketwould come back and refusedRoad in Glencoe. Elise Rinaldi was one of the agents inIOived in to mark down their listing prices. Nowthe sale. people are accepting this landscape.Photo by: John R. Boehm TheYve had the recession and the depth of this decline blasted at them by the media,and theytre far more w illing to go along with the market."Our jobs have become somew hat easier as a result."There has been a lot for homeowners to adjust to. According to the Standard & Poors/Case-Sh iller Index ofChicago-area single-family homes, prices have plum meted 31% since the market peak in September 2006.There have been portents of recovery in the past year, but prices are down nearly8% in that time.rv1anysellers have had to stare dow n the cold, hard realityofcomparable sales , regardless ofthe factors theyfeel make their property unique.NO LANGUISHINGNichole Converse-Hum phreyand her husband, Scott, listed their Glencoe home for $1.65 million in rv1arch. Theprice was in keeping with similar four-bedroom brick Georgians in the neighborhood , but Ms. Converse-Hum phreythoughtthe homes proxim ityto them iddle school and the com muter train station made it worth morethan the others."Ne paid $1.8 mill ion for the house four years ago, and I was hopi ng to list it at $ 1.7 m ill ion and get somethingclose to that," says Ms. Converse-Humphrey, 40. "Our broker suggested wed get more traffic if we priced itlower. It turned out she was right: VVe had lots of people looking on the first weekend and got an immediate offerand accepted it. Essentially the house was on the market for just 24 hours. Ne hope to close on the sale by thechicagobusiness.com/article/. ../305079994 ... 1/4
  4. 4. 5/20/2011 Print Storyend of May."Stephen Haas, a broker at Koenig & Strey Real Living inGlen Ellyn, took over a listing in Vtheaton recently that hadlanguished on the market for three years. Originally listed at I didntwantthe house on$1.2 million, it was marked dow n to $850,000 by Mr. Haaslate last year and sold in a week at $815,000. the market lor six monthsThat had to sting, but it got the job done. or a vear hoping lor a"In this market, pricing a house too high is a waste of m y better price. -Pamela Zdunek, homeownertime and my clienfs time," Mr. Haas says.In a previous job, Ms. Rinaldi worked on a listing for Pamela Zdunek, w ho with ex-husband Clifford Sladn ickowned a 5,000-square-foot home they built in 1998 on Old Green Bay Road in Glencoe. They put it up for salelast year. Ms. Zdunek, 51 , calculated that the house was worth about $2.8 million at the market peak. She heldout hope that she might get $2 .2 m iIlion for it.Instead, Ms. Rinaldi persuaded Ms Zdunekto list the housefor$19 million"Elise explained to me that the $2-m ill ion mark was a critical threshold. Houses similar to ours listed at $2.2million had been sitting on the marketfortwo years and more," says Ms. Zdunek, a non-practici ng lawyer withfour ch ildren. "It was prettytough, but I understood in the end. I was going to lose money in the same waythatpeople woke up and found their stock market portfolios were suddenly worth half what they had once beenworth."Mthin four days of listing the house, two prospective buyers made offers. Bythe sixth day, Ms. Zdunekacceptedthe higher bid, $1.82 million."I didnt want the house on the market for six months or a year hoping for a better price," she says. "At somepoint buyers begin to think there is something w rong w ith your house."Indeed, real estate agents are increasingly pushing sellers to price aggress ively at the start rather thanchoosing a wished-for number and hoping to get lucky. Too often price "adjustments" become necessary, givingthe house a stigma.A recent studyby@Properties finds that houses with no price adjustments from the opening listing sold, onaverage, atalmost95% of listing price at 122 days on the market. Houses that wentthrough one or moreadjustments-typically meaning that the asking price was originally too high-took an average of 218 days tosell and garnered less than 80% of the Iisting price.Thats a big gap. "Simply put, the houses that are sell ing quickly today are the ones that have been priced rightfrom the start," says Matthew Dollinger, vice-presiden t of strategic development at @Properties in Chicago, whocounsels agents on listing practices. "Selling a home has become like opening a new restaurant or club: Youwant the buzz and promotion and red ropes out front right from the start. Lower prices draw lots of couples whowant to look, and that creates a positive energythat puts the property in demand."Miss the splashy opening salvo, and the quest to sell can become a slog.UTILE INTERESTPaige Dooley, an agent at Hudson Co. in Winnetka, put a house in Winnetka up for sale in May2009 at $2.8million. The ow ners had paid $2.29 million for the house, which had unusual12-foot ceilings and a stunningpanorama of private gardens, in 2003 and then sunk more money into renovations."I knew the asking price was too high, but the ow ners wanted to see w hat they could get," Ms. Dooley says.Diana lvas, left, of the ReJMax Elite office in Hinsdale, with client Gayle Panos. Ms. Panos and her husbandfound that interest in their house spiked after they tweaked the price. Photo: John R. BoehmThe house got precious little attention. The asking price was lowered to $2.6 million in July2009, then $2 .5million in February of last year, then $2.3 million in March. In July, the sellers bit the bullet and went down to$1.99 mill ion. Wthin a week it was under contract, eventually selling for $1 .9 mill ion.chicagobusiness.com/article/. ../305079994 ... 2/4
  5. 5. M Mortgage Tax Deduction ...+- C Q www.money-zine.com/Calculators/Mortgage-Calculators/Mortgage-Tax-Deduction-Calculator/ _:__ _ __~ TweetDeck D Rll [:) Scrible ... Images [:) Bcamp @ QA • MRED Cs Connect [:) Realist 0 Events 1!1 @videos [:) Matt < Ads by Gooq!e Loan Calculator Goog~- c..tom S.ltlcll 401 K Calculator You r 401K Info Sjte Infiniti G37 Couoe Free Information on 40 lk Roll ove rs No Pay Off Calculator Compar e Lease Pricing on the G37 . Hassle Answers Research, Price , Design, &. Locate . 40 1 k .Eve ryM• n Bu slneu .com v.vNt. I nfin it iUSA.com Ada by CoogleMortgage Tax Deduction Calculator One of the nice things about a mortgage is ttat the internt charges are deductible from your federal income taxes. If you want to know just how 100ehyou can deduct, then try OU1 IIIOrtiage tax deduction calculator. It P<ov1des you with thetotal interest charees I tax. deductions over the tife of a mortgage as nf!l as an amor-tizationtaHe. K £ ~ toSignupfor Our Monthly Newsle tte r Nortgage Tax De6.Jction • 1 "" T ler Tolal Home loan Amount (S) 100.000.0C1 0 SHARE IJ t 181 ... Annual Interest Rate r;.) 6.000~. Tenn of the loan (Years) 30 Federal Tax Rate r;.) 33.0% Calculaor Reds: Morchly Paymere (S I Marth) 599.55 Total Paymeres (S) 215,838.19 Tolallnlereot Paid I Dedx:tion (S) 115.838.19 Tolal Tax BenefC (S) 38226.60 Principal Tax Deduction Year 1 (S) 98.771 .99 5.966.59 Year 2 (S) 97.468.24 5.890.85 Year 3 (S) 96.084.07 5.810.44 Year 4 (S) 94.614.53 5.725.07 Year 5($) 93.054.36 5.634.43 Year 6 (S) 5.538.20
  6. 6. REASONS TO BUY A HOME - THE MORTGAGE INTEREST DEDUCTIONWhile having lunch with a Realtor friend of mine yesterday, he commented that most of hiscolleagues still have a hard time explaining to potential buyers the benefits of HomeOwnership. There is a layer of negativity that is hovering over our industry right now. Its not justmedia. It is very real, to everyone out there, owner or renter. We know people underwater ontheir mortgages. We have friends and family members that are suffering through theforeclosure process or a short sale. Relatives that are enduring problems within condoassociations or who cannot get their mortgages refinanced or modified, even though it seemsthat the bank would want to help them. Given the circumstances, its really not that hard tobelieve that the very professionals who are supposed to be out there promoting homeownership, cant give a ringing endorsement for owning a home!The Mortgage Interest and Property Tax Deductions are probably the most tangible and easilysold benefits to Home Ownership, but also the least understood. Even I dont like getting intothis one, in a general sense, because every individuals taxes are different and I am far from aCPA. So, I went online and pulled tax forms from irs.gov and put together a very simpleexample of how much owning a home can save a single property owner in a given year.For this exercise, I am assuming the following. The tax payer is a Single Man or Woman,makes $75,000.00 a year and purchases a $200,000.00 home at 5% down. That would havethem carrying a mortgage of $237,500.00. I used an interest rate of 5% on a 30 Year Fixed formy calculations. The only other assumption I made here is that the tax payer puts 10% into a401K, reducing their taxable income to $67,500.00.Taking the standard deduction of $3650 this year, that leaves their taxable income at $63,850and leaves them with a tax in 2010 of $12,150.00.Now, using the assumptions above, in the first 9 years of Home Ownership, the tax payer wouldpay no less than $10,000.00 in mortgage interest. In our area, they would also typically payabout $3750 in property taxes, which is also an itemized deduction associated with owning ahome. That puts their Schedule A deduction between $15500 the first year in the home and$13750 by year nine. Now, heres what happens. That deduction reduces the taxable income,dollar for dollar. Subtracting that from your $63,850, puts the tax payer in a lower tax bracket,thus reducing there overall tax to around $8300. So, the home owner, between years 1 and 9,will save an estimated $3500-$3800 per year. Thats $31,000.00 over nine years. Those arereal dollars, not paid to the IRS, and a huge benefit to owning a home.Now, this scenario is going to be different for everyone buying a home, but thats how itworks. The Mortgage Interest Deduction is a very real, tangible benefit to owning a home. Onethat comes with a dollar sign attached!Joe Burke Read the full post atYour Chicago Mortgage Guy www.yourchicagomortgageguy.com773-742-6707joe@yourchicagomortgageguy.com
  7. 7. r- --t ~-o ___ ·L~~ H -m e s.._~~~--------~~s_c __._--~~ R- e~e _ ~~ _om ·· =·~es___···--~=~Th_m~···--~~~-EO~Str~· ~~~ sw r_ ·· --~~~~You_ub··---~~- ea__s_ .. ~, i Is: ~ _ o_ P- S _ ~ ··~ !a A___ ·- ~ __ T__ · ~ R_ I E t._ - ~ c ~==~================~==========~L_ of TweetDeck I] RIL Cl Scrible ~~ Images Cl Scamp @ QA !I MRED Cs Connect Cl Realist ____________________________ 0 ClEvents !!:) @videos Matt [f) Pandora ~ • L:B ~ YOUR INFORMATION Buying is better than renting after 5 years. AOVANCEDSETnNGS• Monthly rent 1, 100 Annual home price change +2% Annual rent increase or decrease +3% Buying is better ~ CJ Renting is better Home price ·10 0 10 20 30 ·10 0 10 20 30 172,000 $20,000 Down payment (%) $34.400 $15,000 20.0 $10,000 Mortgage rate(%) $781 $5,000 5.50 Annual property taxes (%) 52.322 -$5,000 1.35 -$10,000 -$15,000 -$20,000 YEARS FROM NOW 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30Y EAR-BY-Y EAR ANALYSIS Spent in Cumulative spent Spent in Cumulative spentYear 6 Buy ing year 6 from years 1 to 6 Renting year 6 from years 1 to 6 PURCHA SE COSTS INITIAL RENTING COSTSIf you stay in your Down payment 34,400 Rent deposit 1,100home for 6 years, Closing costs 6,880 Brokers fee 0buying is better. YEARLY COSTS YEARLY COSTS Mortgage payment• 7,988 47,564 Rent 15,302 85,383It will cost you Principal 2,439 12,813 - Renters insurance 202 1,127 Interest• 5,549 34,751 -$ 10,460 less Condo/common fees• 0 0 Property taxes• 2,092 11,952 -than renting, Utilities 7,570 • 1,325an average savings of Renovations 968 5,533 • Maintenance 968 5,533 •$ 1,74 3 each year. Homeowners insurance 891 5,091 I LOST OPPORTUNITY COSTS LOST OPPORTU,UTY COSTS .... ,...,,.., .......... . .... . . ,. ,; ... ;.;,..., ,..,. ........ .., a:c:n n ..,7n - o,. ..... .......,,..,...;.,;,..;.;,..., ... ,. ....... ~A A II
  8. 8. ~ Homes... ~New Yo... . SCom... c:I Reserve... c:I Thomp... " B sEOStr... !j!I ASW Tr... i!i YouTub... $R•+- C lp explore.trulia.com tdatav·s/ entvsouy/Q2-201l/of TweetDeck I] RIL Cl Scrible ~~ Images Cl Scamp @ QA • MRED Cs Connect Cl Realist 0 Events 1!1 @videos Cl Matt [f) Pand 9trulia·Rent vs. Buy Q2 2011 :#Tweet 314 () like 2K ~ Send Trulias Q2 2011 Rent vs. Buy Index provides guidance to help you better to rent or buy in each of Americas 50 largest cities by population. Click here for the full mel·hod ~u u Rent:Buy Ratio Rent Price Rent Price list Price San Fra nci. SanJose • Los Angeles San Antonio • 31 . 35 M ore affotd.able to rent • • · 26 · 30 21 . 25 16 . 20 Renting less expensive, but buying might be better . , - 15 • 6 · 10 M ore afforda ble to buy
  9. 9. 2011 YEAR TO DATE ESTIMATES FOR THE STATE, METROPOLITAN AREAS, MICROPOLITAN AREAS, COMBINED STATISTICAL AREASCOUNTIES, CITIES, LOCAL WORKFORCE AREAS AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT REGIONS - NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTEDScroll down to see full content of report LABOR UNEMPLOYEDAREA YEAR MO# FORCE EMPLOYED NUMBER RATESTATE AND METROPOLITAN AREASILLINOIS 2011 1 6,565,729 5,933,320 632,409 9.6 NationalILLINOIS 2011 2 6,532,580 5,916,702 615,878 9.4ILLINOIS 2011 3 6,573,126 5,974,123 599,003 9.1 UnemploymentBLOOMINGTON-NORMAL MSA 2011 1 91,496 84,632 6,864 7.5 Numbers for the U.S.BLOOMINGTON-NORMAL MSA 2011 2 92,116 85,257 6,859 7.4 stood at 9.0% endingBLOOMINGTON-NORMAL MSA 2011 3 92,651 86,242 6,409 6.9 the Month of AprilCHAMPAIGN-URBANA MSA 2011 1 121,198 110,858 10,340 8.5CHAMPAIGN-URBANA MSA 2011 2 121,030 110,931 10,099 8.3CHAMPAIGN-URBANA MSA 2011 3 121,380 111,930 9,450 7.8CHICAGO-JOLIET-NAPERVILLE METROPOLITAN DIVISION 2011 1 4,043,468 3,664,655 378,813 9.4CHICAGO-JOLIET-NAPERVILLE METROPOLITAN DIVISION 2011 2 4,042,306 3,678,629 363,677 9.0CHICAGO-JOLIET-NAPERVILLE METROPOLITAN DIVISION 2011 3 4,055,028 3,700,495 354,533 8.7LAKE COUNTY-KENOSHA COUNTY IL-WI METROPOLITAN DIVISION 2011 1 439,745 393,972 45,773 10.4LAKE COUNTY-KENOSHA COUNTY IL-WI METROPOLITAN DIVISION 2011 2 435,984 389,604 46,380 10.6LAKE COUNTY-KENOSHA COUNTY IL-WI METROPOLITAN DIVISION 2011 3 440,421 395,083 45,338 10.3CHICAGO-JOLIET-NAPERVILLE-IL-IN-WI MSA 2011 1 4,798,649 4,342,817 455,832 9.5CHICAGO-JOLIET-NAPERVILLE-IL-IN-WI MSA 2011 2 4,793,710 4,352,870 440,840 9.2CHICAGO-JOLIET-NAPERVILLE-IL-IN-WI MSA 2011 3 4,813,265 4,384,168 429,097 8.9DANVILLE MSA 2011 1 36,894 32,750 4,144 11.2DANVILLE MSA 2011 2 36,268 32,195 4,073 11.2DANVILLE MSA 2011 3 36,652 32,758 3,894 10.6DAVENPORT-MOLINE-ROCK ISLAND, IA-IL MSA, IL PART 2011 1 113,117 102,948 10,169 9.0DAVENPORT-MOLINE-ROCK ISLAND, IA-IL MSA, IL PART 2011 2 111,051 101,033 10,018 9.0DAVENPORT-MOLINE-ROCK ISLAND, IA-IL MSA, IL PART 2011 3 112,705 102,651 10,054 8.9DAVENPORT-MOLINE-ROCK ISLAND, IA-IL MSA 2011 1 202,930 185,602 17,328 8.5DAVENPORT-MOLINE-ROCK ISLAND, IA-IL MSA 2011 2 200,856 183,964 16,892 8.4DAVENPORT-MOLINE-ROCK ISLAND, IA-IL MSA 2011 3 202,551 186,046 16,505 8.1DECATUR MSA 2011 1 54,645 48,586 6,059 11.1DECATUR MSA 2011 2 53,773 47,738 6,035 11.2DECATUR MSA 2011 3 54,412 48,613 5,799 10.7
  10. 10. News Release 33 S. State Street / Chicago, Illinois 60603 Pat Quinn, Governor Theresa P. Larkin, Acting Director Greg Rivara FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Phone: (312) 814-0095 May 19, 2011 www.ides.illinois.gov www.ILWorkInfo.com Unemployment Rate Falls 15th Time to 8.7 Percent Illinois Adds 100,000 Jobs Since Recovery Began CHICAGO – The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell for the 15th consecutive month, dropping -0.1 to 8.7 percent in April, according to preliminary data released today by the Illinois Department of Employment Security. This is the lowest unemployment rate since February 2009 when it was 8.6 percent. The national rate in April increased slightly by +0.2 to 9.0 percent. The Illinois rate has been equal to or below the U.S. rate for seven consecutive months. “Long-term trends show our economy continues to steadily improve,” IDES Acting Director Theresa P. Larkin said. “But no recovery is marked by a straight upward line. Even with a growing recovery, slight up-and-down movement in the unemployment rate and job creation is to be expected.” Illinois added +9,900 jobs in April. The three-month moving average of seasonally adjusted payroll employment gain for February through April is +10,900. The three-month context better depicts trends in the labor market by offsetting fluctuations in monthly payroll estimates. Since January 2010 when Illinois employment resumed after the national recession, Illinois has added +100,300 net new jobs. Leading sectors are Professional and Business Services (+39,200); Educational and Health Services (+26,200); Trade, Transportation and Utilities (+26,100); and Manufacturing (+14,600). That represents a 1.8 percent job growth, compared to the nation’s 1.4 percent. In April, the number of unemployed individuals fell for the 15th consecutive month, dropping -6,600 (-1.1 percent) to 575,300, the lowest level since February 2009. Total unemployed has declined -164,800 (-22.3 percent) since January 2010 when the state unemployment rate peaked at 11.2 percent. The unemployment rate identifies those who are out of work and seeking employment. A person who exhausts benefits, or is ineligible, still will be reflected in the unemployment rate if they actively seek work. The IDES supports economic stability by administering unemployment benefits, collecting business contributions to fund those benefits, connecting employers with qualified job seekers, and providing economic information to assist career planning and economic development. It does so through nearly 60 offices, including Illinois workNet centers. - MORE - Illinois Department of Employment Security: 33 S. State St. Chicago, IL 60603
  11. 11. Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rates 3-Month April March April Moving 2011 2011 2010 Avg. Illinois 8.7% 8.8% 10.8%* 8.8% U.S. 9.0% 8.8% 9.8%* 8.9% * Revised Illinois Seasonally Adjusted Non-farm Jobs – by Major Industry Change Over from the Over the Previous April March April Month Year 3-Month 3-MonthIndustry Title 2011* 2011** 2010** Change Change Moving Avg. Mov. Avg.Total Non-farm 5,680,800 5,670,900 5,614,200 9,900 66,600 5,673,300 10,900Mining 9,400 9,400 9,000 0 400 9,500 0Construction 204,400 202,700 203,200 1,700 1,200 202,800 1,200Manufacturing 567,800 563,600 558,900 4,200 8,900 565,000 1,200Trade, Transportation, & Utilities 1,144,900 1,140,200 1,126,600 4,700 18,300 1,140,400 2,900Information 96,400 98,000 102,100 -1,600 -5,700 97,900 -1,300Financial Activities 353,700 354,500 362,300 -800 -8,600 354,700 -900Professional and Business Services 819,500 820,900 797,100 -1,400 22,400 819,500 2,900Educational and Health Services 847,900 847,000 827,500 900 20,400 847,700 1,700Leisure and Hospitality 524,200 524,000 514,300 200 9,900 525,400 900Other Services 259,400 260,800 254,700 -1,400 4,700 259,900 1,100Government 853,200 849,800 858,500 3,400 -5,300 850,700 1,300 * Preliminary ** RevisedNotes:• Illinois monthly labor force, unemployed and unemployment rates for years 2006-2010 have been revised as required by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. In February of each year, monthly labor force data for all states are revised to reflect updated Census population controls, seasonal factors, non-farm jobs and unemployment insurance claims inputs. Data were also smoothed to eliminate large monthly changes as a result of volatility in the monthly household (CPS) survey. Comments and tables distributed in prior Illinois unemployment rate news release materials should be discarded because any analysis, including records, previously cited might no longer be valid.• Seasonally adjusted employment data for subsectors within industries are not available. For not seasonally adjusted jobs data with greater industry detail, go to http://lmi.ides.state.il.us/cesfiles/cescurrent.htm.• “Other Services” includes a wide range of activities in three broad categories: Personal and laundry; repair and maintenance; and religious, grant making, civic and professional organizations.• Monthly seasonally adjusted unemployment rates for Illinois and the Chicago-Naperville-Joliet Metropolitan Division are available at: http://lmi.ides.state.il.us/laus/icmaur.htm. - END - Illinois Department of Employment Security: 33 S. State St. Chicago, IL 60603
  12. 12. Sinking values prompting homeowners to consider strategic default as best businessdecisionSlight drop in strategic defaults unlikely to last as more people do the math, see they cantrecover and make a business decision to walk away from their mortgage, even if it ruinstheir creditBy Mary Ellen Podmolik, Tribune reporterMay 22, 2011Strategic default — opting to walk away from a mortgage you can afford — isnt a new phenomenon in the housingcrisis. But with home values continuing to decline, more owners are finding themselves in a position where theymay see it as a savvy business decision to destroy their credit rather than wait years for prices to recover.Marty Likier is one who knows the mental hurdles that have to be crossed to make the decision.Likier put almost 20 percent down to purchase a $312,000 townhouse in Westmont in 2006 and lived there until twoyears ago, when he remarried and bought a home in Chicago Ridge. For a year he rented the townhouse. When achange in rules at the community meant Likiers days as a landlord would end, he called his lender and asked if hecould rework the loan, but he didnt have enough equity left to refinance the $240,000 mortgage.Likier, 55, took a long look at his finances and the combined monthly mortgage payments of more than $4,700 anddecided last fall that the struggle wasnt worth it.He listed the townhouse for $249,000, figuring he would bring $20,000 to the closing table to facilitate a deal. Thelisting has since dropped to $179,000, which is lower than the unit sold for when it was built in 1999. He stoppedpaying the mortgage in January and recently was served with foreclosure papers.Despite the fact that he and his wife are employed and have an annual household income near $150,000, hescomfortable with his decision."I did a lot of soul-searching about whether it was morally the right thing to do," he said. "I felt there was no moralobligation to make a payment. The contract says its a financial obligation, not a moral obligation."I was in a boat with a slow leak. It was manageable, but I know I was slowly sinking."The decision to walk, tied to a housing crisis that continues to grip the market, is far-reaching, raising seriousquestions about whether financial commitments can ever be considered optional.Earlier this month, CoreLogic reported that as of the end of March, home prices had declined for eight consecutivemonths, and more than 11 million borrowers nationally were underwater, which means they owe more on theirmortgages than the home is worth. Its difficult to predict just how many of those borrowers may opt for default, butFICO, the widely used credit scoring system, recently developed a formula to help lenders pinpoint borrowers whomight default."This is not a problem thats going away," said Joanne Gaskin, director of product management for scores at FICOInc. "Theres an exceptionally high interest from the banks in getting ahead of it.The Chicago area remains ripe for strategic defaults because of a triple whammy of circumstances.With local home values having sunk to 2001 levels, more homeowners have negative equity in their homes. At the
  13. 13. end of December, about one-quarter of Chicago-area homeowners with a mortgage were underwater and another 5percent of mortgage holders had less than 5 percent equity in their homes, putting them in danger of fallingunderwater, CoreLogic said.Also, foreclosures in Illinois are processed through a court system overwhelmed by the housing crisis. On average,the time to process a mortgage foreclosure, from the first default notice to a bank repossessing a home, was 494 daysin March, RealtyTrac said. That means a homeowner who decides to default doesnt have to walk away so quickly;he can live mortgage-free during the drawn-out process.And finally, there is growing consumer sentiment that if there is little financial upside to staying in a home,voluntarily defaulting on the mortgage is a smart decision, not a moral shortcoming. In its most recent nationalconsumer survey, Fannie Mae found that 27 percent of people think its acceptable to walk away from a mortgage ifthey face financial distress, twice as many as did a year ago.The decision isnt made overnight. "You see the house price dropping, you dont walk away the next day," said LuigiZingales, a professor at University of Chicago Booth School of Business who studies strategic defaults. "You hopethat the first time the condo next to you sold for half price, that it isnt going to happen to (you.)"Once accepting of the facts, it takes some time for people to rationalize the social and moral considerations ofshirking their financial responsibilities and preparing for the legal and financial ramifications, Zingales said.A recent study co-written by Zingales found a decrease in walkaways since December. He doesnt think theimprovement will last."Especially in states like Illinois, people held out hope for a little while," Zingales said. "Maybe they are paying themortgage a little but when theyre seeing that prices arent recovering, they default."A lot of people strategically default because they want to preserve their retirement savings."When a vacation condo in Panama City, Fla., became difficult to rent, Naperville resident Philip Burdi tried to sell itfor $90,000 — far less than the $190,000 owed on the mortgage. His lender, doubting Burdis financial hardship,wouldnt approve it.Burdi stopped paying the two mortgages on the condo in March 2010 and is over the guilt, particularly after hetapped retirement savings to settle the second mortgage debt. He occasionally stays in the condo, and he lets friendsand family stay there for free. He has yet to be served with foreclosure."I know its going to have very dire consequences when the foreclosure happens," he said. "Millions of Americansare in the same shoes Im in."The fact that others are doing it doesnt make it moral, because a borrower signed a contract that said he will pay,Zingales said. And the problem is bigger than individual borrowers, he adds. "The cost long-term to society is verylarge and not just for the housing market. Moving forward, promises will be a different thing and contracts will be adifferent thing if they can be broken so easily."The decision to walk away carries long-lasting repercussions. A foreclosure strikes the same blow whether it wasvoluntary or involuntary, decreasing a credit score as much as 250 points, a drop that it may take an otherwisecreditworthy consumer up to seven years to recoup.That lower score will affect a consumers ability to access additional credit, whether it is credit cards, an automobileor rental housing. Landlords pull credit reports too. Auto insurance premiums also would increase. "Were not surethat consumers understand the ramifications of it," FICOs Gaskin said.Some do, though, and theyre taking steps beforehand to position themselves for the difficult years ahead. Theyremaking repairs to their cars and applying for extra credit cards because they wont qualify after a foreclosure.
  14. 14. Margie Jones prepared for the fallout, getting her finances in order and making any big-ticket purchases. When sheand her husband bought a home in El Paso, Texas, they put it in his name only.The Chicago native endured multiple deployments to Iraq and Kosovo as an Army warrant officer overseeing motorpools. But she no longer can take the financial stress associated with a three-flat in Chicagos Logan Squareneighborhood, a home she still lists as her legal address, and a mortgage she took over from her mother more thanfive years ago.Bought in 2002, the building where her mother and two renters live last appraised for less than half its purchaseprice. Efforts to refinance its two mortgages failed, and the first lien holder wouldnt approve a loan modificationbecause the lender views Jones, who is now stationed in El Paso, as an investor.The last time she made a payment on the first mortgage was in February."We were barely able to make ends meet," Jones said. "I told my husband I cant do this anymore. The day I madethe decision to just walk away was one of the better nights sleeps I had because I wasnt going to worry about itanymore."Jones, who said her credit score was above 700, is still waiting for the decision to catch up with her, but shesaccepting of it. "I can stand to lose a couple hundred points."mepodmolik@tribune.com
  15. 15. 2008 Index Consumer Confidence Graphed at http:// future.aae.wisc.edu/data/monthly_values/by_area/998? yoy=true&yearlist=2008|2009|2010| 2011&gtype=line&area=US&normalize=false 2011 Index Full data available at the Consumer Board Index page by clicking here 2010 Index2009 Index
  16. 16. Methodology for the Housing A ordability Index The NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® a ordability index measures whether or not a typical family could qualify for a mortgage loan on a typical home. A typical home is de ned as the national median-priced, existing single-family home as calculated by NAR. The typical family is de ned as one earning the median family income as reported by the U.S. Bureau of the Census.To interpret the indices, a value of 100 means that a family with the median income has exactly enough income to qualify for a mortgage on a median-priced home. An index above 100 signi es that family earning the median income has more than enough income to qualify for a mortgage loan on amedian-priced home, assuming a 20 percent down payment. For example, a composite HAI of 120.0 means a family earning the median family income has120% of the income necessary to qualify for a conventional loan covering 80 percent of a median-priced existing single-family home. An increase in theHAI, then, shows that this family is more able to a ord the median priced home.The calculation assumes a down payment of 20 percent of the home price and it assumes a qualifying ratio of 25 percent. That means the monthly P&Ipayment cannot exceed 25 percent of a the median family monthly income.
  17. 17. Detached Homes Under Contract City Apr-10 Apr-11 %change YTD-10 YTD-11 %changeAlgonquin 24 20 -16.7% 101 83 -17.8%Arlington Heights 63 46 -27.0% 170 156 -8.2%Barrington 28 23 -17.9% 75 77 2.7%Barrington Hills 2 4 100.0% 13 15 15.4%Buffalo Grove 35 30 -14.3% 99 87 -12.1%Cary 25 25 0.0% 77 56 -27.3%Chicago - Lake View 18 19 5.6% 54 52 -3.7%Chicago - Near North Side 1 2 100.0% 5 9 80.0%Chicago - Rogers Park 3 5 66.7% 13 12 -7.7%Chicago - West Ridge 16 7 -56.3% 58 37 -36.2%Crystal Lake 63 59 -6.3% 186 163 -12.4%Deer Park 1 1 0.0% 6 5 100.0%Deerfield 26 24 -7.7% 65 68 4.6%DeKalb 41 25 -39.0% 90 64 -28.9%Des Plaines 55 37 -32.7% 155 138 -11.0%Evanston 59 52 -11.9% 152 129 -15.1%Glencoe 14 24 71.4% 36 59 63.9%Glenview,Golf 51 52 2.0% 151 151 0.0%Grayslake 43 29 -32.6% 102 1 -99.0%Gurnee 34 34 0.0% 97 86 -11.3%Hainesville 4 4 0.0% 15 104 593.3%Hawthorn Woods 11 7 -36.4% 30 11 -63.3%Highland Park 38 36 -5.3% 136 37 -72.8%Highwood 2 1 -50.0% 6 109 100.0%Hoffman Estates 46 24 -47.8% 122 9 -92.6%Inverness 7 10 42.9% 21 88 319.0%Island Lake 3 10 233.3% 18 23 27.8%Kenilworth 1 6 500.0% 13 27 107.7%Kildeer 8 6 -25.0% 15 19 26.7%Lake Barrington 1 3 200.0% 9 17 100.0%Lake Bluff 5 13 160.0% 31 11 -64.5%Lake Forest 33 20 -39.4% 83 35 -57.8%
  18. 18. Detached Homes Under Contract City Apr-10 Apr-11 %change YTD-10 YTD-11 %changeLake In The Hills 24 30 25.0% 96 68 -29.2%Lake Zurich 29 22 -24.1% 93 121 30.1%Lakemoor 6 10 66.7% 16 69 331.3%Lakewood 3 13 333.3% 18 28 55.6%Libertyville 29 32 10.3% 86 24 -72.1%Lincolnshire 14 11 -21.4% 25 98 292.0%Lincolnwood 19 14 -26.3% 45 25 -44.4%Long Grove 6 13 116.7% 25 46 84.0%McHenry 49 41 -16.3% 148 35 -76.4%Morton Grove 31 17 -45.2% 84 139 65.5%Mount Prospect 39 31 -20.5% 137 72 -47.4%Mundelein 41 32 -22.0% 107 104 -2.8%North Barrington 9 7 -22.2% 17 110 547.1%Northbrook 49 38 -22.4% 139 22 -84.2%Northfield 5 6 20.0% 16 126 687.5%Palatine 45 36 -20.0% 133 15 -88.7%Riverwoods 6 7 16.7% 18 108 500.0%Round Lake 26 36 38.5% 104 24 -76.9%Round Lake Beach 43 25 -41.9% 120 89 -25.8%Round Lake Heights 4 7 75.0% 14 101 621.4%Round Lake Park 8 7 -12.5% 19 16 -15.8%Schaumburg 50 38 -24.0% 105 22 -79.0%Skokie 46 44 -4.3% 141 133 -5.7%South Barrington 6 8 33.3% 22 10 -54.5%Sycamore 18 12 -33.3% 48 50 4.2%Vernon Hills 18 16 -11.1% 47 39 -17.0%Wauconda 21 17 -19.0% 61 60 -1.6%Waukegan 78 60 -23.1% 242 191 -21.1%Wheeling 23 19 -17.4% 63 46 -27.0%Wilmette 46 38 -17.4% 117 96 -17.9%Winnetka 23 20 -13.0% 61 73 19.7%Total 1575 1365 -13.3% 4571 4098 -10.3%
  19. 19. NORTH SHORE - BARRINGTON ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS YTD 2011 Sales for Detached Single Family - Listed by TOWN Detached Single Family # OF HOUSES SOLD AVERAGE SALE PRICE MEDIAN SALE PRICE TOWN Sold Q1 Sold Q1 Q1 AVG PRICE AVG PRICE Q1 MEDIAN MEDIAN Q1 2011 2010 % CHG 2011 2010 % CHG 2011 2010 % CHG ALGONQUIN 59 72 -18.1% 212,753 250,538 -15.1% 212,500 234,500 -9.4% ANTIOCH 50 62 -19.4% 162,812 193,078 -15.7% 158,950 176,750 -10.1% ARLINGTON HEIGHTS 106 107 -0.9% 336,547 343,172 -1.9% 285,000 310,000 -8.1% BANNOCKBURN 1 1 0.0% 950,000 720,000 31.9% 950,000 720,000 31.9% BARRINGTON AREA 117 98 19.4% 559,043 644,586 -13.3% 485,000 472,500 2.6% BARTLETT 63 59 6.8% 241,855 264,094 -8.4% 217,000 253,000 -14.2% BEACH PARK 20 19 5.3% 125,213 131,846 -5.0% 136,500 130,000 5.0% BUFFALO GROVE 49 61 -19.7% 291,528 330,711 -11.8% 268,000 295,000 -9.2% CAROL STREAM 45 35 28.6% 214,144 221,142 -3.2% 185,000 215,000 -14.0% CARPENTERSVILLE 111 97 14.4% 101,582 96,543 5.2% 70,000 73,900 -5.3% CHICAGO - ALBANY PARK 19 28 -32.1% 287,963 292,661 -1.6% 219,900 233,500 -5.8% CHICAGO - DUNNING 92 114 -19.3% 167,755 207,018 -19.0% 162,500 197,500 -17.7% CHICAGO - EDGEWATER 17 17 0.0% 474,606 561,204 -15.4% 457,500 533,000 -14.2% CHICAGO - IRVING PARK 50 57 -12.3% 297,695 311,409 -4.4% 260,000 262,000 -0.8% CHICAGO - LAKE VIEW 28 29 -3.4% 1,169,589 1,018,297 14.9% 1,072,500 880,000 21.9% CHICAGO - LINCOLN PARK 28 46 -39.1% 1,546,457 1,732,133 -10.7% 1,162,000 1,530,000 -24.1% CHICAGO - LINCOLN SQUARE 18 19 -5.3% 528,722 625,447 -15.5% 442,500 578,000 -23.4% CHICAGO - LOGAN SQUARE 55 44 25.0% 570,347 437,534 30.4% 490,000 333,300 47.0% CHICAGO - NEAR NORTH SIDE 7 6 16.7% 2,028,929 2,405,083 -15.6% 1,625,000 1,830,000 -11.2% CHICAGO - NEAR SOUTH SIDE 2 3 -33.3% 1,052,500 800,000 31.6% 1,052,500 770,000 36.7% CHICAGO - NEAR WEST SIDE 8 12 -33.3% 167,625 385,665 -56.5% 113,500 193,450 -41.3% CHICAGO - PORTAGE PARK 86 100 -14.0% 180,981 220,937 -18.1% 160,750 209,500 -23.3% CHICAGO - ROGERS PARK 8 9 -11.1% 270,925 352,572 -23.2% 232,500 290,000 -19.8% CHICAGO - UPTOWN 4 9 -55.6% 934,750 895,894 4.3% 755,500 935,000 -19.2% CHICAGO - WEST RIDGE 27 38 -28.9% 250,890 313,040 -19.9% 240,000 264,000 -9.1% CHICAGO - WEST TOWN 41 32 28.1% 629,450 658,139 -4.4% 617,500 597,500 3.3% DE KALB 37 43 -14.0% 142,546 173,268 -17.7% 135,153 165,000 -18.1% DEERFIELD 46 42 9.5% 438,182 513,378 -14.6% 350,750 497,000 -29.4% DES PLAINES 89 94 -5.3% 219,025 239,962 -8.7% 190,000 215,000 -11.6% ELGIN 238 255 -6.7% 141,894 162,115 -12.5% 115,000 145,000 -20.7% ELK GROVE VILLAGE 37 38 -2.6% 224,709 240,067 -6.4% 233,000 215,000 8.4% EVANSTON 63 95 -33.7% 443,080 431,624 2.7% 433,000 375,000 15.5% FOX LAKE 16 16 0.0% 163,169 156,937 4.0% 145,000 141,950 2.1% GLENCOE 45 25 80.0% 1,024,510 1,111,950 -7.9% 825,000 820,000 0.6%Disclaimer:Statistics provided using data from Midwest Real Estate Data LLC.The Association makes no claim as to the accuracy of this data and has provided this data as a service to our members.
  20. 20. NORTH SHORE - BARRINGTON ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS YTD 2011 Sales for Detached Single Family - Listed by TOWN Detached Single Family # OF HOUSES SOLD AVERAGE SALE PRICE MEDIAN SALE PRICE TOWN Sold Q1 Sold Q1 Q1 AVG PRICE AVG PRICE Q1 MEDIAN MEDIAN Q1 2011 2010 % CHG 2011 2010 % CHG 2011 2010 % CHG GOLF-GLENVIEW 97 96 1.0% 609,838 545,331 11.8% 530,000 437,500 21.1% GREEN OAKS-LIBERTYVILLE 63 71 -11.3% 407,085 463,078 -12.1% 376,000 460,640 -18.4% GREENWOOD- WOODSTOCK 57 54 5.6% 168,434 199,211 -15.4% 156,000 156,750 -0.5% GURNEE 66 68 -2.9% 235,893 296,003 -20.3% 218,750 274,000 -20.2% HAINESVILLE-GRAYSLAKE 58 78 -25.6% 168,224 183,480 -8.3% 162,450 180,000 -9.8% HANOVER PARK 48 56 -14.3% 136,732 161,001 -15.1% 135,500 162,000 -16.4% HIGHLAND PARK 75 101 -25.7% 538,655 611,527 -11.9% 435,000 465,000 -6.5% HIGHWOOD 4 5 -20.0% 169,975 290,500 -41.5% 162,500 242,500 -33.0% HOFFMAN ESTATES 69 70 -1.4% 255,789 282,738 -9.5% 230,000 253,000 -9.1% INGLESIDE 21 17 23.5% 114,412 241,259 -52.6% 112,447 152,500 -26.3% INVERNESS 11 19 -42.1% 640,636 580,752 10.3% 650,000 570,000 14.0% ISLAND LAKE 6 19 -68.4% 134,900 138,945 -2.9% 132,450 135,000 -1.9% KENILWORTH 10 12 -16.7% 1,758,375 1,285,042 36.8% 1,422,500 1,070,000 32.9% LAKE BLUFF 19 24 -20.8% 568,684 561,333 1.3% 400,000 408,750 -2.1% LAKE FOREST 44 58 -24.1% 1,158,430 1,000,774 15.8% 846,500 790,000 7.2% LAKE IN THE HILLS 73 62 17.7% 169,288 197,704 -14.4% 171,000 202,000 -15.3% LAKE VILLA- LINDENHURST 73 78 -6.4% 208,667 216,708 -3.7% 187,950 221,000 -15.0% LAKEWOOD-CRYSTAL LAKE 103 140 -26.4% 232,122 218,481 6.2% 215,000 185,000 16.2% LINCOLNSHIRE 16 11 45.5% 591,500 571,955 3.4% 455,000 530,000 -14.2% LINCOLNWOOD 32 22 45.5% 391,273 320,409 22.1% 317,500 287,500 10.4%LONG GROVE-LAKE ZURICH- HAWTHORN WOODS- KILDEER 115 109 5.5% 417,670 398,548 4.8% 370,000 338,000 9.5% METTAWA 1 1 0.0% 700,000 595,000 17.6% 700,000 595,000 17.6% MORTON GROVE 52 52 0.0% 248,482 279,335 -11.0% 239,000 252,500 -5.3% MT. PROSPECT 70 90 -22.2% 269,829 274,560 -1.7% 267,000 279,000 -4.3% MUNDELEIN 63 78 -19.2% 209,654 225,431 -7.0% 165,000 214,350 -23.0% NAPERVILLE 267 301 -11.3% 415,406 414,871 0.1% 387,000 366,000 5.7% NILES 48 51 -5.9% 238,460 273,864 -12.9% 219,500 255,000 -13.9% NORTH CHICAGO 19 13 46.2% 45,572 56,282 -19.0% 37,500 45,000 -16.7% NORTHBROOK 80 88 -9.1% 463,662 499,306 -7.1% 432,500 487,500 -11.3% NORTHFIELD 11 11 0.0% 584,209 868,409 -32.7% 520,000 798,000 -34.8% OAKWOOD HILLS - CARY 33 54 -38.9% 247,257 212,399 16.4% 215,000 185,131 16.1% PALATINE 95 82 15.9% 313,380 344,507 -9.0% 285,000 319,625 -10.8% PARK CITY -WAUKEGAN 106 155 -31.6% 68,957 73,748 -6.5% 50,000 68,500 -27.0% PARK RIDGE 86 99 -13.1% 441,425 446,516 -1.1% 373,625 395,000 -5.4% PRAIRIE VIEW 3 4 -25.0% 205,600 223,250 -7.9% 200,000 222,500 -10.1% Disclaimer: Statistics provided using data from Midwest Real Estate Data LLC. The Association makes no claim as to the accuracy of this data and has provided this data as a service to our members.
  21. 21. NORTH SHORE - BARRINGTON ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS YTD 2011 Sales for Detached Single Family - Listed by TOWN Detached Single Family # OF HOUSES SOLD AVERAGE SALE PRICE MEDIAN SALE PRICE TOWN Sold Q1 Sold Q1 Q1 AVG PRICE AVG PRICE Q1 MEDIAN MEDIAN Q1 2011 2010 % CHG 2011 2010 % CHG 2011 2010 % CHG PROSPECT HEIGHTS 12 9 33.3% 275,004 326,500 -15.8% 237,500 278,000 -14.6% RIVERWOODS 17 11 54.5% 640,412 579,855 10.4% 500,000 577,000 -13.3% ROLLING MEADOWS 17 23 -26.1% 217,244 224,478 -3.2% 174,000 186,000 -6.5% ROUND LAKE 126 149 -15.4% 93,458 117,145 -20.2% 67,750 122,000 -44.5% SCHAUMBURG 55 53 3.8% 269,332 297,681 -9.5% 223,900 274,800 -18.5% SKOKIE 80 82 -2.4% 235,528 288,115 -18.3% 213,950 248,000 -13.7% STREAMWOOD 83 83 0.0% 147,152 178,502 -17.6% 134,000 160,000 -16.3% MCHENRY-LAKEMOOR-JOHNSBURG 111 140 -20.7% 172,750 172,420 0.2% 125,000 154,500 -19.1% SYCAMORE 33 28 17.9% 169,541 178,203 -4.9% 173,000 192,000 -9.9% VERNON HILLS 35 35 0.0% 384,000 417,678 -8.1% 373,000 377,200 -1.1% WADSWORTH - OLD MILL CREEK 9 9 0.0% 362,006 272,990 32.6% 235,000 250,000 -6.0% WAUCONDA 38 37 2.7% 196,516 209,724 -6.3% 216,750 200,000 8.4% WHEELING 33 39 -15.4% 164,991 190,769 -13.5% 135,000 174,000 -22.4% WILMETTE 55 65 -15.4% 734,837 852,219 -13.8% 625,000 695,000 -10.1% WINNETKA 45 46 -2.2% 1,299,458 1,462,365 -11.1% 970,000 1,156,000 -16.1% WINTHROP HARBOR 13 13 0.0% 129,865 143,922 -9.8% 129,600 125,000 3.7% ZION 68 54 25.9% 73,825 82,177 -10.2% 68,750 80,000 -14.1%Disclaimer:Statistics provided using data from Midwest Real Estate Data LLC.The Association makes no claim as to the accuracy of this data and has provided this data as a service to our members.
  22. 22. Economic MonitorThis table reflects data available throughApril 1, 2011. Likely Direction Recent Over the Next ForecastMonthly Indicator Forecast Six Months Existing-home sales declined in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.88 million units – down 9.6% from Feb 2011 4,920 Pent up demand January and 2.8% below the pace in February of 2010. Even Jan 2011 5,400 finally set to be so, the pace of re-sales remained 26.4% above the cyclical unleashed, Feb 2010 5,020 low in July of 2010, and January’s re-sales figures were though slowly revised upward to 5.40 million units New home sales also declined in February, posting a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 250,000 units – off Feb 2011 250 Recovering stock market 16.9% from January’s sales pace and 28.0% off the pace in Jan 2011 301 helps with down February of 2010. While the number of new homes available Feb 2010 347 payment to buy for sales was unchanged at 186,000, the month’s supply did expensive rise to 8.9 based on the current sales rate. homes Housing starts posted a seasonally adjusted annual rate of Banks with huge 479,000 units in February – 22.5% below the pace in January Feb 2011 479 cash pile looking and 20.8% below the pace in February 2010. Both single- and Jan 2011 618 for places to lend multifamily starts were off on a month to month basis, but Feb 2010 605 including to multifamily starts were up by more than 54% from a year ago. builders Housing affordability continues at very high levels. NAR’s Housing Affordability Index posted a reading of 192.3 for February, up slightly from January’s index and ahead of the Feb 2011 192.3 Down from 178.5 index registered in February of 2010. Continued low Jan 2011 192.2 record high home prices – and an improving economy – are contributing Feb 2010 178.5 levels to the record levels of affordability. Mortgage rates The average 30 year fixed mortgage rate was 4.83% in March – a decline from the 4.95% in Mar 2011 4.83% High budget February and 4.97% a year ago. Historic low inflation rates deficit raises Feb 2011 4.95% and the recently increased demand for U.S. securities borrowing costs allowed fixed mortgage rates to drift lower. Mar 2010 4.97% Employment The U.S. economy added a net 216,000 jobs in March, with the private sector accounting for 230,000 new payrolls. Sectors that gained the most jobs included durable Mar 2011 +216 1.5 to 2 million manufacturing, retail, education and health care, and Feb 2011 +194 net new jobs in professional and financial services, while the public sector 12-month the next 12 (mainly local governments) shed positions. The total: +1,300 months unemployment rate fell again – to 8.8% which is its lowest level in two years. Economic Growth Real GDP increased at a 3.1% annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2010. This is the third estimate of GDP based on more complete data. As a comparison, real GDP increased 2010:IV +3.1% Nothing exciting 2.6% in the third quarter of last year. The healthy GDP growth 2010:III +2.6% but steady was due primarily to increases in consumer spending and exports. 2009:IV +5.0% growth In fact, consumer spending rose 4.0% in the fourth quarter of last year, with spending on durable goods increasing 21.1%Notes: All rates are seasonally adjusted. Existing home sales, new home sales and housing starts are shown in thousands. Employment growth isshown as month-to-month change in thousands. Sources: NAR, Bureau of the Census, Bureau of Labor Statistics and Freddie Mac. 21
  23. 23. DOM Quartiling for ALL North Shore UNDER CONTRACT Properties - April 2011 # of Price Org. Price List Price SP/UC% DOM SP% Est. Ave. SP DOM Changes BD BA Ave. SQFT $/SQFT Lot Size (Acres)0 - 90 Days on Market $ 757,419.76 $ 747,216.94 99% 93% $ 737,151.55 26.927 0.3 3.8 2.6 1664.0 $ 250.84 0.3790 - 180 Days on Market $ 778,765.00 $ 732,024.69 94% 89% $ 688,089.66 140.19 1.8 3.5 2.6 1383.0 $ 246.76 0.42180 - 365 Days on Market $ 897,982.21 $ 809,510.94 90% 89% $ 729,756.06 272.73 1.6 3.7 2.6 1303.5 $ 236.53 0.89365+ Days on Market $ 959,209.26 $ 824,151.65 86% 89% $ 708,110.28 643.15 2.4 3.6 2.6 1581.1 $ 259.85 0.81 * Averages pulled from the areas of Evanston, Wilmette, Kennilworth, Winnetka, Glencoe, Northfield, Lake Bluff and Lake Forest $1,000,000.00 Org. Price $900,000.00 List Price $800,000.00 $700,000.00 Est. Ave. SP $600,000.00 $500,000.00 $400,000.00 Ave. Days on Market $300,000.00 643 DOM $200,000.00 700 $100,000.00 600 $- 500 0 - 90 Days 90 - 180 180 - 365 365+ Days 400 273 on Market Days on Days on on Market 300 Market Market 140 200 27 100 0 0 - 90 Days 90 - 180 180 - 365 365+ Days on Market Days on Days on on Market Market Market
  24. 24. Market Dynamics At Properties Supply & Demand - # Units (FS, UC, Sold) 2 Years (Monthly) 04/01/09 - 04/30/11 Under Contract Deadline for Tax Buyer Credit 2010 Closed Deadline for Tax Buyer Credit 2010* Extended KEY INFORMATION Monthly Change Monthly % Total Change Total % ChangeFor Sale -31.69 -0.94 -760.52 -22.51Under Contract -0.08 -0.04 -1.82 -0.97Sold -0.46 -0.25 -10.99 -6.07MLS: MRED Period: 2 Years (Monthly) Price: All Construction Type: All Bedrooms: All Bathrooms: All Lot Size: AllProperty Types: Residential: (Detached Single, Attached Single) Sq Ft: AllN. Shore - Matt Kenilworth, Lake Forest, Highland Park, Northfield, Wilmette, Lake Bluff, Evanston, Winnetka, GlencoeBrokerMetrics® 1 of 2 05/25/11 Information not guaranteed. © 2011 - 2012 Terradatum and its suppliers and licensors (http://www.terradatum.com/metrics/licensors).
  25. 25. Market Dynamics At Properties Supply & Demand - # Units (FS, UC, Sold) Apr-10 through Apr-11 Under Contract Deadline for Tax Buyer Credit 2010 Closed Deadline for Tax Buyer Credit 2010* Extended KEY INFORMATION Monthly Change Monthly % Total Change Total % ChangeFor Sale -71.63 -2.17 -859.59 -26.03Under Contract -5.09 -2.28 -61.06 -27.35Sold -11.70 -4.56 -140.34 -54.72MLS: MRED Period: 2 Years (Monthly) Price: All Construction Type: All Bedrooms: All Bathrooms: All Lot Size: AllProperty Types: Residential: (Detached Single, Attached Single) Sq Ft: AllN. Shore - Matt Kenilworth, Lake Forest, Highland Park, Northfield, Wilmette, Lake Bluff, Evanston, Winnetka, GlencoeBrokerMetrics® 1 of 2 05/25/11 Information not guaranteed. © 2011 - 2012 Terradatum and its suppliers and licensors (http://www.terradatum.com/metrics/licensors).
  26. 26. Market Dynamics At Properties Supply & Demand - # Units (FS, UC, Sold) Apr-10 through Apr-11 FOR SALE UNDER CONTRACT SOLD EXPIRED NEW LISTINGS Time Period # Properties Average DOM # Properties Average DOM # Properties Average DOM # Properties Average DOM # PropertiesApr-11 2,763 166 273 219 190 197 231 366 517Mar-11 2,657 174 211 187 136 243 200 325 524Feb-11 2,505 183 174 218 97 172 198 326 449Jan-11 2,399 195 123 215 112 215 220 379 385Dec-10 2,418 198 120 215 165 189 284 299 197Nov-10 2,656 186 135 209 155 212 300 308 232Oct-10 2,912 176 173 227 155 208 315 324 344Sep-10 3,000 169 164 201 162 166 268 304 442Aug-10 3,075 167 164 180 240 169 353 262 424Jul-10 3,152 163 186 172 199 174 315 278 479Jun-10 3,266 160 225 165 358 184 368 293 585May-10 3,204 164 239 178 220 183 284 306 502Apr-10 3,320 163 318 167 231 229 300 316 688BrokerMetrics® 2 of 2 05/25/11 Information not guaranteed. © 2011 - 2012 Terradatum and its suppliers and licensors (http://www.terradatum.com/metrics/licensors).
  27. 27. North Shore Area Active Listings All Property Types 6,600 6,400 6,200Amount of Listings 6,000 Note the difference in FOR SALE inventory between 5,800 ALL NSBAR and just N. Shore 5,600 5,400 5,200 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 /20 /20 /7/20 /20 /20 /20 /4/20 /20 /20 /20 /4/20 /20 /20 /20 /1/20 /8/20 /20 /20 /20 /24 /31 1 1/14 1/21 1/28 2 2/11 2/18 2/25 3 3/11 3/18 3/25 4 4 4/15 4/22 4/29 12 12 Time Period
  28. 28. Market Dynamics At Properties Supply & Demand - # Units (FS, UC, Sold) Apr-09 through Apr-11 When comparing "non tax credit" markets - 2011 shows that we have made some great movements forward. KEY INFORMATION Apr-09 Apr-11 # Units Change Percent ChangeFor Sale 3,255.0 2,763.0 -492.0 -15.1Under Contract 155.0 273.0 118.0 76.1Sold 92.0 190.0 98.0 106.5MLS: MRED Period: 2 Years (Monthly) Price: All Construction Type: All Bedrooms: All Bathrooms: All Lot Size: AllProperty Types: Residential: (Detached Single, Attached Single) Sq Ft: AllN. Shore - Matt Kenilworth, Lake Forest, Highland Park, Northfield, Wilmette, Lake Bluff, Evanston, Winnetka, GlencoeBrokerMetrics® 1 of 2 05/25/11 Information not guaranteed. © 2011 - 2012 Terradatum and its suppliers and licensors (http://www.terradatum.com/metrics/licensors).
  29. 29. All statistics courtesy ofNSBAR.org Market Statistics -available by clicking this link orvisiting www.NSBAR.org

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