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Oct 2010Analysis of Chinese inland regionsMore insight, better decisions….Confidential – not for third party distribution ...
The interest in Chinese inland provinces in the mediaEach part of the supply chain recognizes the potential of the Chinese...
Comparing Chinese Coastal regions with the inlandsFor the analysis we compared the trade data of the major gateway regions...
Export growth Chinese inland regions looks promisingMajority of the inland regions show above average China growth figures...
Inland growth compared to coastal regions  Exports for inland regions show high volatility whereas imports show structural...
Drivers behind growth for inland gateway regionsThe share of raw material exports for the inland regions is decreasing, in...
Trade imbalance at coastal regions and inland regionsInland regions are more balanced than coastal regions resulting in le...
Chongqing gateway region       Motor cycle exports remain the largest commodity. The impact of new high tech production   ...
Wuhan gateway region On average double digit export growth from Wuhan in the last 5 years. Especially automotive and high ...
Contact details  For more information, please contact…Mathijs SlangenSenior AnalystSeabury Cargo AdvisoryE-mail:    mslang...
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Seabury analysis Of Chinese Inland Regions

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Seabury analysis Of Chinese Inland Regions

  1. 1. Oct 2010Analysis of Chinese inland regionsMore insight, better decisions….Confidential – not for third party distribution © Seabury Group 2010
  2. 2. The interest in Chinese inland provinces in the mediaEach part of the supply chain recognizes the potential of the Chinese inlands “Shenzhen is reaching out to the interior for a larger proportion of its cargo” “Nissan to Set up Electric-Car Production in Wuhan”“NOL Group to Establish Global Service Centre in Chongqing Municipality, Western China “ “Special report: Worlds workshop heads to inland China“ “Ch in e se in lan d o p e n fo r b u sin e ss, w ith e v e ry in ce n tiv e ” “Foxconn to build laptop manufacturing hub in Chongqing”“APM Terminals sees great potential for growth in the central China logistics hub on the Yangtze river” “Chinas rising wages push investors inland “ “Wuhan, China to be Base for Electric-Auto Output “ “Intels move signals inland shift in China” “Two-speed China: faster inland, slowing coast” “P fizer look s in la n d for les s cos t ly t a len t p ool” Source: various media channels “Investment in China Migrates Inland” Confidential – not for third party distribution © Seabury Group 2010 1
  3. 3. Comparing Chinese Coastal regions with the inlandsFor the analysis we compared the trade data of the major gateway regions around sea portswith gateway data at inland locations with high-class waterways Coastal gateway regions 1 Guangzhou 9 Shenzhen 6 2 Ningbo 10 Hangzhou 3 Shantou 11 Gongbei 4 Qingdao 12 Shanghai 5 Xiamen 13 Huangpu 6 Tianjin 14 Zhanjiang 8 6 7 Fuzhou 15 Jiangmen 4 8 Dalian 16 Haikou 4 5 12 Inland gateway regions 1 10 9 1 Wuhan 6 Harbin 2 2 2 Chongqing 7 Nanning 3 10 7 3 Nanchang 8 Guiyang 8 4 Nanjing 9 Chengdu 7 5 5 Hefei 10 Changsha 13 3 14 9 1 15 11 16 Confidential – not for third party distribution © Seabury Group 2010 2
  4. 4. Export growth Chinese inland regions looks promisingMajority of the inland regions show above average China growth figuresExport growth in the last 12 months (Oct 2009 to Sep 2010) compared to the previous 12 months Growth (YoY)40% Coastal gateway regions35% Inland gateway regions30% Total Chinese export25% growth: 20.3%20%15%10% 5% 0%-5%-10% Source: Seabury’s Global Ocean Database Confidential – not for third party distribution © Seabury Group 2010 3
  5. 5. Inland growth compared to coastal regions Exports for inland regions show high volatility whereas imports show structural growth. This despite the majority of the strong growing waste commodities remaining in coastal provincesMonthly export growth (YoY) in last 18 months Regional imports first three quarters of the year Growth Inland gateway regions Growth Coastal gateway regions (YoY) (YoY) Coastal gateway regions Inland gateway regions60% 15%50% 10%40%30% 5%20% 0%10% 2008 (Q1-Q3) 2009 (Q1-Q3) 2010 (Q1-Q3) 0%-10% Share of waste commodities on total imports (2009)-20% Coastal regions Inland regions-30% Waste* Waste* 26% commodities-40% 47% commodities 53% Sep 74% 2008 2009 2010 Other commodities Other commodities Source: Seabury’s Global Ocean Database * = Waste commodities: waste paper, plastics and metal scrap Confidential – not for third party distribution © Seabury Group 2010 4
  6. 6. Drivers behind growth for inland gateway regionsThe share of raw material exports for the inland regions is decreasing, indicating anincrease of production / manufacturing activity in these regionsCommodity share for inland region exports Commodity share for coastal region exports100% 100% 90% 90% 80% 11% 80% 16% 70% 70% 25% 29% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 0% 2007* 2008* 2009* 2010* 2007* 2008* 2009* 2010* Capital Equipment Fashion Goods High Tech Machinery (parts) Perishables Chemicals Consumer goods Automotive Raw MaterialsSource: Seabury’s Global Ocean Database * = for proper comparison we are comparing January to September for each year Confidential – not for third party distribution © Seabury Group 2010 5
  7. 7. Trade imbalance at coastal regions and inland regionsInland regions are more balanced than coastal regions resulting in less container shortagesor equipment repositioning Regional containerized import and export share in 2009 100% Export 75% 48% Share 69% 50% Import 25% 52% Share 31% 0% Source: Seabury’s Global Ocean Database Confidential – not for third party distribution © Seabury Group 2010 6
  8. 8. Chongqing gateway region Motor cycle exports remain the largest commodity. The impact of new high tech production facilities can already be witnessed in trade data Largest export commodities from Chongqing Fast growing export commodities from region Chongqing region TEU TEU(x 1,000) +100% (x 1,000) 90 6 +55% 2008* 2008* 80 2009* 5 2009* 70 2010* 2010* 60 4 50 +148% 3 40 +37% 30% 30 2 +200% +33% +52% 20 +73% 1 10 0 0 Source: Seabury’s Global Ocean Database * = for proper comparison we are comparing January to September for each year Confidential – not for third party distribution © Seabury Group 2010 7
  9. 9. Wuhan gateway region On average double digit export growth from Wuhan in the last 5 years. Especially automotive and high tech are expected to grow fast in upcoming years Yearly exports from Wuhan gateway region Fast growing export commodities in Wuhan CAGR (’06 - ’10) of 10.9% is much higher than total Chinese export CAGR of 2008** 5.1% in same period TEU 2009** TEU (x 1,000) (x 1,000) 2010** +255% 180 25 +16% 150 10.9% 20 +150% +13% 120 +62% 15 90 10 60 5 30 0 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010** = last three months of 2010 is estimate based on Seabury analysis** = for proper comparison we are comparing January to September for each yearSource: Seabury’s Global Ocean Database Confidential – not for third party distribution © Seabury Group 2010 8
  10. 10. Contact details For more information, please contact…Mathijs SlangenSenior AnalystSeabury Cargo AdvisoryE-mail: mslangen@seaburygroup.comCell: +31 6 1585 6951Phone: +31 20 880 4224Fax: +31 20 890 8620Website: www.seaburygroup.com Confidential – not for third party distribution © Seabury Group 2010 9

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