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Product Market Fit Poker

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Product Market Fit Poker

  1. 1. Product/Market Fit Poker Are you ready for growth?
  2. 2. Who Am I?• @matjohnson
  3. 3. Definitions• Product/Market Fit: Customers look for your product, pay for it, and love it.• Poker: A series of repeated investment games with limited information.
  4. 4. Why is P/M Fit Important?• Don’t go all-in when you are holding an immature product• Don’t just take it from me . . .
  5. 5. Andreessen• The only thing that matters
  6. 6. Blank• Search, then execute
  7. 7. Ellis• Cannot market without it
  8. 8. Ries• Find the market for product as specced
  9. 9. Dorsey• Product is what we say to the world
  10. 10. The Problem• “The only thing that matters”• “You know it when you see it”
  11. 11. How can you measure P/M Fit?
  12. 12. Back to Poker• Every week/month/quarter you look at your cards and decide how to invest for that period.
  13. 13. Game Theory of P/M Fit Mkt not ready Mkt readyInvest in Blow-up Win ScaleInvest in Play again Lifestyle P/M Fit
  14. 14. Know what hand you are holding
  15. 15. Ranking the hands• Useful benchmarks
  16. 16. Money-making formula• Growth doesn’t exhaust marketing channels• Multiple, sustainable channels• $ in to marketing < $ out from sales
  17. 17. LTV 3x CAC, 12 month payoff• David Skok, Matrix Partners
  18. 18. 15% DAU/MAU• Active and engaged users• CasualConnect, et al.
  19. 19. 3% Upgrade Rate• Fred Wilson, USV• Market specific (3% for consumer freemium,Yammer 20% paid seats)• 3% is a starting point, not an optimization goal.
  20. 20. 40% “Must-have”• Sean Ellis• Specific survey question• Specifically for P/M Fit• Not an end in itself
  21. 21. +50 NPS• Raving fans outnumber tepid and negative combined.• HBR 2003
  22. 22. 30 Surveys• Roger Murff (Box, MSFT)• Central Limit Theorem• Strong signals, no rat-holing on statistical significance
  23. 23. 10 Customer interviews• Eric Ries• Forces a strong thesis about your target market niche
  24. 24. Know your starting hand• When to bet and when to wait for the next hand• The nice thing is that you can work to improve your next hand
  25. 25. Discussion/Questions•

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