Weather	
  
Lars	
  Böcker 	
  Sofia	
  Thorsson	
  
&	
  
Cycling	
  
•  Exis;ng	
  studies	
  lack	
  a>en;on	
  for	
  dura;ons	
  
•  Exis;ng	
  studies	
  have	
  meteorological	
  shortco...
Methods	
  
N	
   A$ri'on	
  
Wave	
  1:	
  Summer	
   950	
  
Wave	
  2:	
  Autumn	
   826	
   -­‐13,1%	
  
Wave	
  3:	
 ...
0
5
10
15
20
25
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Precipitationinmm/windspeedinm/s
Maximumairtemperaturein˚C
Wind speed (m/s)
Precipitatio...
0
5
10
15
20
25
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Precipitationinmm/windspeedinm/s
Maximumairtemperaturein˚C
Wind speed (m/s)
Precipitatio...
Descrip;ves:	
  modal	
  split	
  
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Ta (max)
Bicycle
Walking
Public transport
Car
20-­‐25˚C	
  
100...
Descrip;ves:	
  modal	
  split	
  
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Ta (max)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Precipitation (sum)
0%
20%
40%...
Descrip;ves:	
  cycling	
  frequencies	
  
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1,2
1,4
Ta (max)
20-­‐25˚C	
  
Bicycle as main mode
Bic...
Descrip;ves:	
  cycling	
  frequencies	
  
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1,2
1,4
Ta (max)
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1,2
1,4
Precip...
Descrip;ves:	
  cycling	
  dura;ons	
  
0
5
10
15
20
25
Ta (max)
Bicycle as main mode
20-­‐25˚C	
  
25
0
5
10
15
20
min.
Descrip;ves:	
  cycling	
  dura;ons	
  
0
5
10
15
20
25
Ta (max)
0
5
10
15
20
25
Precipitation (sum)
0
5
10
15
20
25
Ws (a...
Mul;variate	
  analysis	
  
Meteorological	
  a$ributes	
  
(Daily	
  level)	
  
-­‐Maximum	
  Ta	
  
-­‐Maximum	
  Tmrt	
...
Mul;variate	
  analysis	
  
Spa'otemporal	
  a$ributes	
  
-­‐Residen;al	
  environment	
  
-­‐Weekday/weekend	
  
-­‐Morn...
Three	
  thermal	
  parameters	
  
Air	
  temperature	
  (Ta)	
  
Air	
  temperature	
  (Ta)	
   Mean	
  Radiant	
  	
  
Temperature	
  (Tmrt)	
  
Three	
  thermal	
  parameters	
  
Air	
  temperature	
  (Ta)	
   Mean	
  Radiant	
  	
  
Temperature	
  (Tmrt)	
  
Physiological	
  Equivalent	
  	
  
Tempe...
14 August 2012
- semi-cloudy day no precipitation, mean wind speed 1.3 m/s (1.1m)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9...
Results:	
  mode	
  choice	
  
Ta	
  model	
   Cycling	
  v	
  car	
   Walking	
  v	
  car	
   Publ.	
  transp.	
  v	
  ca...
Results:	
  cycling	
  frequencies	
  
Tmrt	
  Model	
   #	
  Cycling	
  trips	
  /	
  person	
  /	
  day	
  
Tmrt	
  bell...
Results:	
  cycling	
  dura;ons	
  
Ta	
  (model)	
   Cycling	
  hours	
  /	
  person	
  /	
  day	
  
Ta	
  bell-­‐shaped	...
Summary	
  
•  Thermal	
  condi;ons	
  have	
  non-­‐linear	
  bell	
  shaped	
  effects	
  on	
  cycling	
  
•  The	
  PET...
Conclusion	
  
•  Cycling	
  is	
  most	
  sensi;ve	
  to	
  weather	
  
•  Complexity	
  weather	
  and	
  mobility	
  
•...
Thank	
  you!	
  
Böcker	
  &	
  Thorsson	
  (2013)	
  Integrated	
  weather	
  effects	
  on	
  cycling	
  
shares,	
  fre...
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Nectar 2013

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Nectar 2013

  1. 1. Weather   Lars  Böcker  Sofia  Thorsson   &   Cycling  
  2. 2. •  Exis;ng  studies  lack  a>en;on  for  dura;ons   •  Exis;ng  studies  have  meteorological  shortcomings:   –  Assumed  linear  rela;onships   –  Thermal  condi;ons  are  only  analysed  by  air  temperatures   –  Weather  parameters  are  oFen  singled  out   –  Need  for  analysing  the  integrated  effects  of  weather       Background  
  3. 3. Methods   N   A$ri'on   Wave  1:  Summer   950   Wave  2:  Autumn   826   -­‐13,1%   Wave  3:  Winter   718   -­‐13,0%  
  4. 4. 0 5 10 15 20 25 -10 0 10 20 30 40 Precipitationinmm/windspeedinm/s Maximumairtemperaturein˚C Wind speed (m/s) Precipitation Ta_max (observed) Ta_max (1980-2010) August September October November December January February Wind Speed Precipitation Ta(max), observed Ta(max), 1980-2010 Snow Cover Methods  
  5. 5. 0 5 10 15 20 25 -10 0 10 20 30 40 Precipitationinmm/windspeedinm/s Maximumairtemperaturein˚C Wind speed (m/s) Precipitation Ta_max (observed) Ta_max (1980-2010) August September October November December January February Wind Speed Precipitation Ta(max), observed Ta(max), 1980-2010 Snow Cover Methods  
  6. 6. Descrip;ves:  modal  split   0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Ta (max) Bicycle Walking Public transport Car 20-­‐25˚C   100 0 %
  7. 7. Descrip;ves:  modal  split   0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Ta (max) 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Precipitation (sum) 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Ws (avg.) Bicycle Walking Public transport Car 100 0 % 20-­‐25˚C  
  8. 8. Descrip;ves:  cycling  frequencies   0,0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1,0 1,2 1,4 Ta (max) 20-­‐25˚C   Bicycle as main mode Bicycle as access/egress to public transport
  9. 9. Descrip;ves:  cycling  frequencies   0,0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1,0 1,2 1,4 Ta (max) 0,0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1,0 1,2 1,4 Precipitation (sum) 0,0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1,0 1,2 1,4 Ws (avg.) 20-­‐25˚C   Bicycle as main mode Bicycle as access/egress to public transport
  10. 10. Descrip;ves:  cycling  dura;ons   0 5 10 15 20 25 Ta (max) Bicycle as main mode 20-­‐25˚C   25 0 5 10 15 20 min.
  11. 11. Descrip;ves:  cycling  dura;ons   0 5 10 15 20 25 Ta (max) 0 5 10 15 20 25 Precipitation (sum) 0 5 10 15 20 25 Ws (avg.) Bicycle as main mode 25 0 5 10 15 20 min. 20-­‐25˚C  
  12. 12. Mul;variate  analysis   Meteorological  a$ributes   (Daily  level)   -­‐Maximum  Ta   -­‐Maximum  Tmrt   -­‐Maximum  PET   -­‐Precipita;on  sum   (between  6  and  12  a.m.)   -­‐Wind  speed     (between  6  and  12  a.m.)     Cycling  behaviour   -­‐Mode  choice     -­‐Cycling  frequencies     (per  person  per  day)   -­‐Cycling  dura;on     (total  per  person  per  day)  
  13. 13. Mul;variate  analysis   Spa'otemporal  a$ributes   -­‐Residen;al  environment   -­‐Weekday/weekend   -­‐Morning  peak/  evening   peak/off-­‐peak  day;me/ offpeak  nigh`me   -­‐Daylight/darkness   Personal  a$ributes   -­‐Age,  gender   -­‐Ethnicity   -­‐BMI   -­‐Educa;on   -­‐Weekly  work  dura;on   -­‐Working  hour  flexibility   -­‐Bicycle  ownership   -­‐Public  transport  card     Household  a$ributes   -­‐Household  type   -­‐Car  ownership   -­‐Household  income   -­‐Garden/balcony  size   -­‐House  air-­‐condi;oning     AAtudes/habits   -­‐Urban/countryside  person   -­‐Environmental  concern   -­‐A`tude  towards  seasons           Meteorological  a$ributes   (Daily  level)   -­‐Maximum  Ta   -­‐Maximum  Tmrt   -­‐Maximum  PET   -­‐Precipita;on  sum   (between  6  and  12  a.m.)   -­‐Wind  speed     (between  6  and  12  a.m.)     Cycling  behaviour   -­‐Mode  choice     -­‐Cycling  frequencies     (per  person  per  day)   -­‐Cycling  dura;on     (total  per  person  per  day)   Trip  a$ributes   -­‐Trip  purpose  (work/ study,  errands,  social   visit,  leisure)   -­‐Type  of  trip  (rou;ne,   planned,  impulsive  
  14. 14. Three  thermal  parameters   Air  temperature  (Ta)  
  15. 15. Air  temperature  (Ta)   Mean  Radiant     Temperature  (Tmrt)   Three  thermal  parameters  
  16. 16. Air  temperature  (Ta)   Mean  Radiant     Temperature  (Tmrt)   Physiological  Equivalent     Temperature  (PET)     à  Air  temperature     à  Radiant  heat  load     à  Wind  speed     à  Humidity   Three  thermal  parameters  
  17. 17. 14 August 2012 - semi-cloudy day no precipitation, mean wind speed 1.3 m/s (1.1m) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Hour TemperatureC Ta Tmrt PET Ta   Tmrt   PET   Three  thermal  parameters   Weather  change:   from  clear  and  calm   to  cloudy  and  windy  
  18. 18. Results:  mode  choice   Ta  model   Cycling  v  car   Walking  v  car   Publ.  transp.  v  car   Ta  bell-­‐shaped  24˚C   +   Wind  speed   -­‐   Precipita;on  sum   -­‐  -­‐   Tmrt  model   Cycling  v  car   Walking  v  car   Publ.  transp.  v  car   Tmrt  bell-­‐shaped  52˚C   ++   -­‐   Wind  speed   -­‐   Precipita;on  sum   -­‐  -­‐   PET  model   Cycling  v  car   Walking  v  car   Publ.  transp.  v  car   PET  bell-­‐shaped  30˚C   +++   Precipita;on  sum   -­‐  -­‐  -­‐   Mul'nomial  LOGIT  model  (clustered  S.E.)   Wald  Chi2   =  3176     Wald  Chi2   =  3242     Wald  Chi2   =  3173    
  19. 19. Results:  cycling  frequencies   Tmrt  Model   #  Cycling  trips  /  person  /  day   Tmrt  bell-­‐shaped  52˚C   +++   Wind  speed   Precipita;on  sum   -­‐  -­‐  -­‐   PET  (model)   #  Cycling  trips  /  person  /  day   PET  bell-­‐shaped  33˚C   +++   Precipita;on  sum   -­‐  -­‐  -­‐   Nega've  Binomial  model  (clustered  S.E.)   Ta  Model   #  Cycling  trips  /  person  /  day   Ta  bell-­‐shaped  24˚C   +++   Wind  speed   Precipita;on  sum   -­‐  -­‐   Wald  Chi2   =  407     Wald  Chi2   =  428   Wald  Chi2   =  415  
  20. 20. Results:  cycling  dura;ons   Ta  (model)   Cycling  hours  /  person  /  day   Ta  bell-­‐shaped  24˚C   +++   Ws   -­‐  -­‐  -­‐   Precip.   -­‐  -­‐   Tmrt  Model   Cycling  hours  /  person  /  day   Tmrt  bell-­‐shaped  52˚C   +++   Ws   -­‐   Precip.   -­‐  -­‐  -­‐   PET  (model)   Cycling  hours  /  person  /  day   PET  bell-­‐shaped  31˚C   +++   Precip.   -­‐  -­‐  -­‐   TOBIT  model  (clustered  S.E.)   Wald  Chi2   =  235     Wald  Chi2   =  244     Wald  Chi2   =  240    
  21. 21. Summary   •  Thermal  condi;ons  have  non-­‐linear  bell  shaped  effects  on  cycling   •  The  PET  and  Tmrt  models  perform  be>er  than  the  Ta  models   •  Precipita;on  and  wind  have  nega;ve  linear  effects  on  cycling   •  Exchange  mostly  between  cycling  and  the  car,  less  for  other  modes •  Effects  on  dura'ons  are  stronger  than  on  frequencies   •  Effects  are  stronger  for  leisure  trips  than  for  u;litarian  trips      
  22. 22. Conclusion   •  Cycling  is  most  sensi;ve  to  weather   •  Complexity  weather  and  mobility   •  Non  linear  rela;onships,  op;mums  and  thresholds   •  Combining  parameters  (Tmrt  or  PET)  be>er  than  singling  out  (Ta)   •  Nevertheless  Ta  is  s;ll  very  useful:   –  widely  available     –  easily  interpretable   –  compa;ble  to  weather  forecasts  and  climate  change    
  23. 23. Thank  you!   Böcker  &  Thorsson  (2013)  Integrated  weather  effects  on  cycling   shares,  frequencies  and  dura;ons  in  Ro>erdam,  the  Netherlands     Exis;ng  knowledge  on  weather  and  transport  mode  choices:     Böcker,  Dijst  &  Prillwitz  (2013)  “Impact  of  weather  on  travel   behaviour  in  perspec;ve:    a  literature  review”,  Transport  Reviews                  L.Bocker@uu.nl                                Funded  by:  

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