YesProbablyPeople will seek alternative methods of learning. Some people will still want highly structured courses. There will be less de-motivated students in those courses. The experience will be better for all concerned. There will be a greater expectation of service from teaching staff.
Smaller, more focussed? Larger more general.Spend 5 minutes in your group.
DISRUPTIVE INNOVATIONS It’s been interesting
watching this unfold in music, books, newspapers, TV, but nothing has ever been as interesting to me as watching it happen in my own backyard. Higher education is now being disrupted; our MP3 is the massive open online course (or MOOC), and our Napster is Udacity, the education startup.
FORECASTING THE DEMISE OF THE
UNIVERSITY "Universities won't survive. The future is outside the traditional campus, outside the traditional classroom. Distance learning is coming on fast.“ - Peter Drucker, Forbes magazine 1997
DEFINING DI Christensen describes disruptive
innovation as: “Generally, disruptive innovations were technologically straightforward, consisting of off- the-shelf components put together in a product architecture that was often simpler than prior approaches. They offered less of what customers in established markets wanted and so could rarely be initially employed there. They offered a different package of attributes valued only in emerging markets remote from, and unimportant to, the mainstream”
“Disruptive technologies bring to market
a very different value proposition than had been available previously. Generally, disruptive technologies underperform established products in mainstream markets. But they have features that a few fringe (and generally new) customers value. Products based on disruptive technologies are typically cheaper, simpler, smaller and, frequently, more convenient to use” DEFINING DI
QUESTION – BE HONEST NOW
• Are you employed in a role in which you have no formal qualifications? What is it? • What do you think you are really good at or know a lot about but for which you have no formal qualifications? Could you be employed in a role using your unqualified skills and/or knowledge? • Are these things you learnt by doing a course? Or are they things that you learnt by yourself in an informal, ad-hoc way? Or something else? • Let’s spend 5 minutes discussing and then see what capabilities we have in the room.
QUESTION – ON THE QUALIFICATION
• Should it be possible for people to achieve a qualification evidencing their learning and/or skills without completing a course? • If it is possible then will it be important that people are able to do this? • What will the effect be on the role of the course as it exists today if people can evidence their own learning without completing a course? • Let’s spend 5 minutes thinking and sharing.
QUESTION – ON THE MAKER
CULTURE • What happens when the barriers to the production of engaging content fall so low that anyone can create content? • What does it mean when the students can produce learning content? • What about when other people can create open content? What does it mean for the role of the academic as subject matter expert?
QUESTION – ON THE SHARING
CULTURE • What happens when content is shared openly and is built communally? • What happens when learners engage with each other on their own in ways not mediated by the subject matter expert?
QUESTION – ON CREDENTIALING •
Do we need credentialing? • What are we measuring? • What is the role of the wider community in credentialing? • How will we credential? • Do degrees still have a place? • What will be the role of professional organisations?
QUESTION – WHAT WILL COURSES
LOOK LIKE? • Will they look the same? • Will they be time and place dependent? • Will there be instances of courses that occur between fixed intervals? • When will we enrol in courses? • Will courses resemble communities of practice? • How will personal learning environments interact with course learning environments? • Who will build courses? • Who will run courses? • Spend 5 to 10 minutes talking about how courses may look in 20 years time.
Traditional Higher Degree SPOC xMOOC
cMOOC Professional Development Training Community Course Informal, ad- hoc open Online No Partly Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Mostly Open No No No Yes Yes No Yes Yes Directed Yes Yes Yes Yes Partly Yes No No Structured Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No No Time based Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No No No Fixed outcome Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No No Topic focussed Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No Personal Very low Low Low Low High High Very High Very High Social Very low Low Low Low High Low High High School/ early tertiary education Small, Private Online Courses COURSES
QUESTION – WHAT WILL TERTIARY
INSTITUTIONS LOOK LIKE? • How will universities, colleges and further education providers look in the future? • Smaller? Larger? More specialised? More general? • Virtual? Bricks and mortar? • Spend 5 minutes thinking about what your institution might be like in 20 years time.
WHAT DOES A UNIVERSITY DO
NOW? The three purposes of the University? – To provide sex for the students, sports for the alumni, and parking for the faculty. I have sometimes thought of it [the university] as a series of individual faculty entrepreneurs held together by a common grievance over parking. - Clark Kerr
QUESTION - WHAT ABOUT THE
ROLE OF THE ACADEMIC? • Do you think that the role of the academic will change? • Will we still have the notion of academic and non academic? • How do personal learning environments change the nature of the academy? • Spend 5 minutes at your table?
DISRUPTIVE INNOVATIONS In the academy,
we lecture other people every day about learning from history. Now its our turn, and the risk is that we’ll be the last to know that the world has changed, because we can’t imagine - really cannot imagine - that story we tell ourselves about ourselves could start to fail. Even when it’s true. Especially when it’s true. - Clay Shirky, 2012
SUMMARY – WHY I’M AN
OUTRAGEOUS OPTIMIST Future is more social, more flexible, more personal but… … we’ll still have courses, there will just be a wider range of types of courses. And they will be better than they are now.