VRCAI 2011 Billinghurst Keynote

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Keynote presentation by Mark Billinghurst for the VRCAI 2011 conference - December 11th, 2011.

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VRCAI 2011 Billinghurst Keynote

  1. 1. The Reality of Augmented Reality Mark Billinghurst [email_address] The HIT Lab NZ, University of Canterbury December 2011
  2. 2. Falling in Love <ul><li>1989… </li></ul>
  3. 3. Virtual Reality Was COOL!
  4. 4. Joining the HIT Lab in Seattle <ul><li>Only $250K for 1500 polygons/sec! </li></ul>
  5. 5. My VR Predictions <ul><li>I knew everyone would use VR when: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>HMDs were cheap (<$300) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Computers generate millions of polys/sec </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Tracking was inexpensive </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Good 3D input devices </li></ul></ul>
  6. 6. Cheap HMDs
  7. 8. Gartner Hype Cycle
  8. 9. 1990-95 1995-2000
  9. 11. <ul><li>April 2007 Computer World </li></ul><ul><ul><li>VR Voted 7 th on list of 21 biggest technology flops </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>MS Bob Winner </li></ul></ul></ul>
  10. 12. Back to Reality <ul><li>1999 Fred Brooks – “What’s Real about Virtual Reality” </li></ul><ul><ul><li>In 1994 VR barely works </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>In 1999 VR is now really real </li></ul></ul><ul><li>3 stages of application maturity: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Demonstration </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Pilot </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Production </li></ul></ul><ul><li>There are successful VR application domains </li></ul>
  11. 13. VR Business Today <ul><li>> $3-5 Billion VR business (+ > $150 Billion Graphics Industry) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Visualization, simulation, gaming, CAD/CAE, multimedia, graphics arts </li></ul></ul>
  12. 14. > $3-5 Billion
  13. 15. Lessons learned <ul><ul><li>Don’t believe the hype </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Many factors determine technology acceptance </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Design for users </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Need to move from Demo to Production </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Profitable niche markets </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Follow the money </li></ul></ul>
  14. 16. What’s Real About Augmented Reality?
  15. 17. Key Questions <ul><li>Where is AR technology today? </li></ul><ul><li>What are the key opportunities? </li></ul><ul><li>What are research obstacles? </li></ul><ul><li>Where will the technology be in 5-10 years? </li></ul>
  16. 18. AR History <ul><li>1960’s – 80’s: Early Experiments </li></ul><ul><li>1980’s – 90’s: Basic Research </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Tracking, displays </li></ul></ul><ul><li>1995 – 2005: Tools/Applications </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Interaction, usability, theory </li></ul></ul><ul><li>2005 - : Commercial Applications </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Games, Medical, Industry </li></ul></ul>
  17. 19. 2007 - AR Reaches Mainstream <ul><li>MIT Technology Review </li></ul><ul><ul><li>March 2007 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>list of the 10 most exciting technologies </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Economist </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Dec 6 th 2007 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Reality, only better </li></ul></ul>
  18. 20. Google Searches for AR 2009 Key crossover point – More people interested in AR than VR
  19. 21. <ul><li>Gartner’s top 10 disruptive technologies 2008-2012: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Multicore and hybrid processors </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Virtualisation and fabric computing </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Social networks and social software </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Cloud computing and cloud/Web platforms </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Web mashups </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>User Interface </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Ubiquitous computing </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Contextual computing </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Augmented reality </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Semantics </li></ul></ul>
  20. 23. AR Technology Today
  21. 24. 1977 – Star Wars
  22. 25. Key Features <ul><li>Classic Augmented Reality (Azuma 97) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Combines Real and Virtual Images </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Display technology </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Interactive in Real-Time </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Real time graphics </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Content Registered in 3D </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Viewpoint tracking </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Other Features </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Shared 3D viewing </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Individual views </li></ul></ul></ul>
  23. 26. HMD, HMD, HMD...
  24. 27. Tracking, Tracking, Tracking Contours Feature Points Surfaces
  25. 28. 1999 - HIT Lab US Shared Space
  26. 30. AR Conferencing <ul><li>Moves conferencing from the desktop to the workspace </li></ul>
  27. 31. Virtual Viewpoint Generation
  28. 32. 3D Live System
  29. 33. 2008 - CNN
  30. 34. The Red Planet (2000) <ul><li>Outdoor AR </li></ul><ul><li>Flexible Lens Surface </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Bimanual interaction </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Digital paper analogy </li></ul></ul>
  31. 35. AR FlexiLens <ul><li>Real handles/controllers with flexible AR lens </li></ul>
  32. 36. 2008: Location Aware Phones Nokia Navigator Motorola Droid
  33. 37. HIT Lab NZ Outdoor AR Platform <ul><li>Cross platform </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Android, iPhone </li></ul></ul><ul><li>3D onsite visualization </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Intuitive user interface </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Positions content in space </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Camera, GPS, compass </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Client/Server software architecture </li></ul><ul><li>Targeting museum guide/outdoor site applications </li></ul>
  34. 40. Earthquake Reconstruction <ul><ul><li>See past, present and future building designs </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Earthquake survivor stories shown on map view </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Collect user comments </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Android platform </li></ul></ul>
  35. 41. IronMan2
  36. 42. Natural Hand Interaction (2011) <ul><li>Using bare hands to interact with AR content </li></ul><ul><ul><li>MS Kinect depth sensing </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Real time hand tracking </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Physics based simulation model </li></ul></ul>
  37. 43. AR Today <ul><ul><li>Key Technologies Available </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Robust tracking (Computer Vision, GPS/sensors) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Display (Handheld HMDs) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Input Devices (Kinect, etc) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Developer tools (Qualcomm, Metaio, ARTW) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Commercial Business Growing </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Gaming, GPS/Mobile, Online Advertisement </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>>$5 Billion USD by 2016 (MarketsandMarkets) </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>>$1.5 Billion USD in Mobile AR by 2014 (Juniper Research) </li></ul></ul></ul></ul>
  38. 44. AR Business Today <ul><li>Marketing </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Web-based, mobile </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Mobile AR </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Geo-located information and service </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Driving demand for high end phones </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Gaming </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Mobile, Physical input (Kinect, PS Move) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Upcoming areas </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Manufacturing, Medical, Military </li></ul></ul>
  39. 45. Research Directions
  40. 46. Important Research Directions <ul><li>Fundamental Technologies </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Unobtrusive displays </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Ubiquitous tracking </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Improving the user experience </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Interaction, Information management </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Social networking + AR </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Standards (Content, interaction) </li></ul><ul><li>Integrating with related technologies </li></ul>
  41. 47. AR User Experience
  42. 50. Future Displays <ul><li>Always on, unobtrusive </li></ul>
  43. 51. Contact Lens Display <ul><li>Babak Parviz </li></ul><ul><ul><li>University Washington </li></ul></ul><ul><li>MEMS components </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Transparent elements </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Micro-sensors </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Challenges </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Miniaturization </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Assembly </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Eye-safe </li></ul></ul>
  44. 52. Contact Lens Prototype
  45. 53. Information Presentation <ul><li>Public and private annotations </li></ul><ul><li>Aid recognition, “extended memory” </li></ul>
  46. 54. Wikitude – www.mobilizy.com Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah
  47. 55. Information Filtering
  48. 56. Information Filtering <ul><li>Information Filtering (Julier et al. ’00) </li></ul><ul><li>Remove clutter by goal- and distance based filtering </li></ul><ul><li>User’s task is route finding: Sniper and relevant buildings are displayed; objects, which are determined to be unnecessary, removed </li></ul>
  49. 57. Metaverse <ul><li>Neal Stephenson’s “SnowCrash” </li></ul><ul><li>The Metaverse is the convergence of: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>1) virtually enhanced physical reality </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>2) physically persistent virtual space </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Metaverse Roadmap </li></ul><ul><ul><li>http://metaverseroadmap.org/ </li></ul></ul>
  50. 58. Metaverse Dimensions <ul><li>• Augmentation technologies that layer information onto our perception of the physical environment. </li></ul><ul><li>• Simulation refers to technologies that model reality </li></ul><ul><li>• Intimate technologies are focused inwardly, on the identity and actions of the individual or object; </li></ul><ul><li>• External technologies are focused outwardly, towards the world at large; </li></ul>
  51. 60. Mirror Worlds <ul><li>Mirror worlds are informationally-enhanced virtual models or “reflections” of the physical world. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Google Earth, MS Street View, Google Maps </li></ul></ul>
  52. 61. LifeLogging <ul><li>Technologies record and report the intimate states and life histories of objects and users </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Nokia LifeBlog, Nike+ </li></ul></ul>
  53. 62. Ubiquitous AR (GIST, Korea) <ul><li>How does your AR device work with other devices? </li></ul><ul><li>How is content delivered? </li></ul>
  54. 63. ubiHome @ GIST  ubiHome What/When/How Where/When Media services Who/What/ When/How ubiKey Couch Sensor PDA Tag-it Door Sensor ubiTrack When/How When/How Who/What/When/How Light service MR window
  55. 64. CAMAR GIST <ul><li>( C ontext- A ware M obile A ugmented R eality ) </li></ul>
  56. 65. Conclusions
  57. 66. Conclusions <ul><li>AR is becoming a real industry </li></ul><ul><li>Key areas of everyday use include </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Location Based, Gaming </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Web-based, Mobile AR </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Important research for the future </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Tracking, Interaction, Displays, User experience </li></ul></ul>
  58. 67. More Information <ul><li>Mark Billinghurst </li></ul><ul><ul><li>[email_address] </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Website </li></ul><ul><ul><li>http://www.hitlabnz.org/ </li></ul></ul>

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