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H1N1 Influenza: A Harbinger of Things to Come Michael T. Osterholm, PhD, MPH Director, Center for Infectious Disease  Rese...
 
 
 
 
Human Influenza Pandemics <ul><li>Human influenza pandemics are a part of our history </li></ul><ul><ul><li>11 in the past...
Novel Influenza A (H1N1)  Virus Outbreak <ul><li>Caused by a novel influenza A virus that likely made the “animal to human...
 
WHO Phases Of Pandemic Alert
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
The Critical Concepts for Pandemic Preparedness That Are Largely Absent in Our Current Planning Efforts <ul><li>The global...
Global Just-in-time Economy <ul><li>Globalization of the world’s economy results from the movement of manufacturing and se...
 
Critical Products and Services <ul><li>Products and services on which we depend for our immediate health and safety  </li>...
 
50 Largest Container Ports and Major Sea Lanes, 2004
 
Weather-Watch Ships at Sea: Tuesday , February 12, 2008, 1:00 PM  (ships participating in a voluntary global weather watch...
The Integrated Freight Transportation Network
<ul><li>Little planning has been done on how we will maintain critical international, national, regional or local transpor...
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
A Modern World View of Pandemic Influenza Chicken Little “ We’re All Going to Die” The Truth
<ul><li>“ Plans are useless, but planning is invaluable.” </li></ul><ul><li>Sir Winston Churchill </li></ul>
 
 
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H1N1 Influenza: A Harbinger of Things to Come by Michael T. Osterholm

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Michael Osterholm's presentation at the Sept. 10, 2009 H1N1: Lessons from the Southern Hemisphere and Minnesota's Preparedness seminar at the University of Minnesota.

Published in: Health & Medicine
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H1N1 Influenza: A Harbinger of Things to Come by Michael T. Osterholm

  1. 1. H1N1 Influenza: A Harbinger of Things to Come Michael T. Osterholm, PhD, MPH Director, Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy Director, Minnesota Center of Excellence for Influenza Research and Surveillance Professor, Division of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health Adjunct Professor, Medical School University of Minnesota
  2. 6. Human Influenza Pandemics <ul><li>Human influenza pandemics are a part of our history </li></ul><ul><ul><li>11 in the past 300 years </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Novel influenza virus subtype emerges in humans with: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>little or no human immunity </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>transmission of the virus to humans by humans </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>moderate to severe disease occurrence </li></ul></ul>
  3. 7. Novel Influenza A (H1N1) Virus Outbreak <ul><li>Caused by a novel influenza A virus that likely made the “animal to human jump” in Mexico in the late winter/early spring of 2009 </li></ul><ul><li>Human-to-human transmission is well established (worldwide distribution) </li></ul><ul><li>Severity of illness spectrum varies by age and risk factor </li></ul><ul><li>The virus is largely sensitive to Tamiflu and Relenza </li></ul>
  4. 9. WHO Phases Of Pandemic Alert
  5. 28. The Critical Concepts for Pandemic Preparedness That Are Largely Absent in Our Current Planning Efforts <ul><li>The global just-in-time economy </li></ul><ul><li>Critical products and services </li></ul>
  6. 29. Global Just-in-time Economy <ul><li>Globalization of the world’s economy results from the movement of manufacturing and services to developing world countries due to reduced costs for labor and natural resources and less government regulation </li></ul><ul><li>Just-in-time (JIT) is an inventory strategy implemented to improve the return on investment of a business by reducing in-process inventory and its associated carrying costs. Quick communication of the consumption of old stock which triggers new stock to be ordered is key to JIT and inventory reduction. This saves warehouse space and costs. However, because stock levels are determined by historical demand, if any sudden demand rises above the historical average demand, the firm will deplete inventory faster than usual and cause customer service issues. </li></ul>
  7. 31. Critical Products and Services <ul><li>Products and services on which we depend for our immediate health and safety </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Water </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Food </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Basic prescription drugs </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Safety </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Protection against the elements (heat or cold) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>These products and services are often taken for granted and it is assumed they will “always be available” </li></ul>
  8. 33. 50 Largest Container Ports and Major Sea Lanes, 2004
  9. 35. Weather-Watch Ships at Sea: Tuesday , February 12, 2008, 1:00 PM (ships participating in a voluntary global weather watch system, of 40,000 ships at sea today ) World container ship traffic has doubled since 1997
  10. 36. The Integrated Freight Transportation Network
  11. 37. <ul><li>Little planning has been done on how we will maintain critical international, national, regional or local transportation </li></ul><ul><li>One million highly skilled workers on 50,000 maritime freighters that move the global supply chain: they are not on any country’s priority plan for pandemic vaccine or antivirals </li></ul><ul><li>No plans for how to prioritize fuel for critical transportation needs </li></ul>Transportation and Supply Chain Integrity During the Next Pandemic
  12. 46. A Modern World View of Pandemic Influenza Chicken Little “ We’re All Going to Die” The Truth
  13. 47. <ul><li>“ Plans are useless, but planning is invaluable.” </li></ul><ul><li>Sir Winston Churchill </li></ul>

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