1. TRENDS IN SECURITY PERCEPTIONS IN ROTTERDAM (NL)
AND THE NEED FOR A NEW NARRATIVE
Conference Security in Marginalized Neighbourhoods
April 4 2017, Budapest
Marnix Eysink Smeets - Professor (lector) of Public Security
Perceptions - Inholland University of Applied Sciences

2. IT’S CONSIDERED A COOL CITY NOW….
De criminaliteit blijft maar dalen…
…maar het lijkt wel of burgers het niet zien…
EYSINK SMEETS - TRENDS IN SECURITY PERCEPTIONS IN ROTTERDAM

3. BUT THAT WAS QUITE DIFFERENT AT THE BEGINNING OF
THIS MILLENNIUM…
EYSINK SMEETS - TRENDS IN SECURITY PERCEPTIONS IN ROTTERDAM
Rotterdam inhabitants fed up with crime levels ánd
inadequate answer of institutions

4. ‘REGIME CHANGE’ ON SECURITY IN 2002
• Drastic shift from policy development (‘paper’) to policy execution (practice)
• Integrated approach of security problem: aimed at social, physical, institutional and criminal
context
• Headed by Mayor, aided by large Public Security Directorate
• Introduction of ‘City Marines’: highly experienced local civil servants’ with far reaching
mandate in ‘front line’
• Extra investments in lower scoring neighbourhoods
• Clean, well maintained and safe became leading city motto
• Within a few months ‘copied’ at national level!
EYSINK SMEETS - TRENDS IN SECURITY PERCEPTIONS IN ROTTERDAM

5. PROGRESS MONITORED BY LOCAL SECURITY INDEX
EYSINK SMEETS - TRENDS IN SECURITY PERCEPTIONS IN ROTTERDAM
• Expresses state of security (on scale 1-10)
• At city, district and neighbourhood level
• Annually from 2001 onwards (later bi-annually)
• Based upon registered crime/nuisance and victimsurveys
• Showed steady increase at city level :
from 5,6 in 2001 to 7,4 in 2012.
Shock in
2014:
index shows
first drop:
(to 7,2)

6. Conclusion of preliminary analysis of local government:
“The safety and security in Rotterdam continues to increase, but nontheless
Rotterdam residents still are fearful”.
But…was this really the case?
How could this then be explained?
And…what were the implications for local security policy?
EYSINK SMEETS - TRENDS IN SECURITY PERCEPTIONS IN ROTTERDAM
RESEARCH QUESTIONS

7. MULTI-METHOD META STUDY
EYSINK SMEETS - TRENDS IN SECURITY PERCEPTIONS IN ROTTERDAM
1. Data from (security) monitors and surveys
Rotterdam Security Index - Rotterdam Social Index - Neigbourhood Profile - Dutch Victimisation Survey -
Passenger Monitor of Rotterdam Public Transport - statistics on perceived School Security - etc
2. Review of available studies 2000-2015
Policy and project evaluations - studies of local security perceptions - etc.
3. Additional qualitative and quantitative studies
Secundary analysis of the Security Index- Analysis of Index methodology – Reconstruction of Security
policy – Interviews- Participant obervation - Consultation of residents in ten neighbourhoods- Etc

8. EYSINK SMEETS - TRENDS IN SECURITY PERCEPTIONS IN ROTTERDAM
MAJOR POLICY OUTPUTS

9. EYSINK SMEETS - TRENDS IN SECURITY PERCEPTIONS IN ROTTERDAM
Many signal crimes, signal
people, signal places (Innes,
2002) adressed effectively
Institutions more responsive
Focused on solving problems
Message: we see your
problems, we work on them
Strong investments in social quality
and social cohesion
Special laws to influence influx in
weakest neighboorhoods
Improvement of maintenance,
Inspiring development of complete
neighbourhoods (Katendrecht) or
places (cf. Central Station)
Gradual change in media portrayal: from
the place ‘not to be’ to the ’place to be’

10. EYSINK SMEETS - TRENDS IN SECURITY PERCEPTIONS IN ROTTERDAM

11. EYSINK SMEETS - TRENDS IN SECURITY PERCEPTIONS IN ROTTERDAM
FINDING 1:
ENOUGH DATA, BUT ARE THEY UNDERSTOOD?

12.  Quantitative data in
abundance, but…
...Verstehen?
 Figures and findings were
seen in splendid isolation
 And most crucial, the data on
security perceptions showed
inexplicable patterns….
EYSINK SMEETS - TRENDS IN SECURITY PERCEPTIONS IN ROTTERDAM
Data
Information
Knowledge
Intelligence
Understanding
Meaning
Observation
Action
Den Hengst, 2013

13. 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Tengelycím Percentage of population that at least ‘sometimes’ feels insecure
Nederland
Rotterdam
Politieregio Rotterdam
Cijfers Rotterdam veiligheidsindex; NL en Politieregio Rotterdam VRM,IVM, VM gecorrigeerd
EYSINK SMEETS - TRENDS IN SECURITY PERCEPTIONS IN ROTTERDAM

14. 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Tengelycím Percentage of population that at least ‘sometimes’ feels insecure
Nederland
Rotterdam
Politieregio Rotterdam
Cijfers Rotterdam veiligheidsindex; NL en Politieregio Rotterdam VRM,IVM, VM gecorrigeerd
EYSINK SMEETS - TRENDS IN SECURITY PERCEPTIONS IN ROTTERDAM
Changes in
surveymethod
were not
controlled for,
for of fear of
(political)
accusations
of data
manipulation

15. EYSINK SMEETS - TRENDS IN SECURITY PERCEPTIONS IN ROTTERDAM
FINDING 2:
PERCEPTIONS OF INSECURITY DID DROP SUBSTANTIALLY

16. EYSINK SMEETS - TRENDS IN SECURITY PERCEPTIONS IN ROTTERDAM
% of inhabitants that feels insecure at least sometimes 2006-2014.
Indexed, 2006-100 (CBS, 2016)

17. Percentage of Dutch population that feels ‘not safe’ often
Dutch national crime surveys 1990-2015
Perceptions: PMB, VMR, IVM/VM.Victimisation: Vollaard et al. (2009), IVM/VM.

18. Perceptions: PMB, VMR, IVM/VM. Victimisation: Vollaard et al. (2009), IVM/VM.
Fin
.
Cri
s.
Fi
n.
is
.
Feeling not safe often vs. victimisation
Dutch national crime surveys 1990-2015

19. FINDING 3:
THERE IS A FEAR DROP,
BUT A FEAR CHANGE AS WELL….

20. EYSINK SMEETS - TRENDS IN SECURITY PERCEPTIONS IN ROTTERDAM
FeardropCrimedrop
Crimechange Fearchange
% of population that perceives crime, immigration or terrorism as 1 of the 2 most important
problems for the country (NL) (Eurobarometer 2003-2016)
Source: Eurobarometer

21. EYSINK SMEETS - TRENDS IN SECURITY PERCEPTIONS IN ROTTERDAM
Upcoming new perceived threats,
Terrorism - Influx migrants –
Cybercrime – Hate crimes -
Organised crime (drug trade)
Due tot budgetcuts and
ideological shift
‘withdrawing
government’ - changes
in social policies –
incidents ethnic
profiling/discrimination
– political polirisation
Budgetcuts in maintenance
Growing discontent in politics and
society in general, esp. in lower SES
Influx of migrants
Growing perceived inequality
Polarisation - tensions
Growing role of
social media
EysinkSmeets,2013

22. A NEED FOR A NEW NARRATIVE?

23. ON SIGNAL CRIMES, SIGNAL PLACES, SIGNAL EVENTS(INNES C.S, 2002 – 2016)
Congruency is all
Visibility & ‘frame’
of interventions
Low High
Public
‘belly ache’
Low
+
Must be
Very insecure
High ‘They’ don’t
care about ‘us’
+

24. EYSINK SMEETS - TRENDS IN SECURITY PERCEPTIONS IN ROTTERDAM
Just City?

25. Thank you!
More information:
Marnix Eysink Smeets
Head of Security & Law Research Group, Inholland Univ. Of Appl. Sciences
Marnix.eysinksmeets@xs4all.nl
00 31 6 53 63 68 65
@EysinkSmeets
EYSINK SMEETS - TRENDS IN SECURITY PERCEPTIONS IN ROTTERDAM

26. EYSINK SMEETS - TRENDS IN SECURITY PERCEPTIONS IN ROTTERDAM
PUBLICATION & LITERATUREORIGINAL PUBLICATION IN DUTCH, ENGLISH ARTICLE WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY