*Professor Shlomo Ben-Hur - October 2012**Oct 23rd 2012, 15:04 by J.L.H.D | ATLANTA
*Financial crisesIs the slow recovery unusual? Surprisingly not so much!Oct 15th 2012, 20:28 by M.C.K. | WASHINGTON “The Economist”
Starting in 2006 … Dake & Becker started tracking job openings for 13 Technology jobs categories.The list grew in 2007-20013 …. See next slide too..
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Numbers come out approximately 2 months AFTER we have our CareerBuilder.com Job Opening numbers. Also, the last number they provide is LABELED as Preliminary. It is ALWAYS revised the next month..!!While their numbers may be more accurate, and may contain less duplication… our are 2-3 months AHEAD of them!!
Analysts Job Openings dropped precipitiously.. . During the banking crisis of 2008 along with the NYSEThe TARP Bailout followed by the First Stimulus ($1 Trillion)… did jump start the economy, but the Analysts Job Openings are Still below their recent highs in 2007Analysts jobs seem to track the economy (NYSE) fairly closely throughout 2006-2013.. More recently… they seem to be trending upwards at least according to our 6-degree polynomial trend line!
JOLT – Job Openings and Labor Turnover
Points:1. In the year over year Analysts openings we see a smoothing for routine seasonality changes. It is fairly apparent that job openings have remained relatively unchanged in a monthly seasonally adjusted sense since June 2010.2. A trend which came to light in the September US Employment numbers verified that there is usually an uptick in part time jobs, especially for college age students in Aug-Sep timeframe, due to a return to colleges and and all of the part-time employment at these predominantly government-funded institutions. This is especially pronounced if the actual Summer employment for college students was stagnant, as was the case this past summer.3. The inflation adjusted and $US exchange rate adjusted NYSE average provides some interesting observations, also. 1) From 2006 to end of 2008, the $US value decrease exceeded inflationary pressures on the NYSE.; 2) Between Jan 2009 until Mar 2012, inflation and $US values moved in parallel.; 3) starting in Apr 2012 Inflationary pressure has lead $US valuation decreases (i.e., the $US dollar has been relatively stronger).
After the glory days of the Dot.Com boom… leading up to 2001… Information Industry jobs according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reached a high of around 362,000 in Jan 2001This dropped precipitously to under 50,000 by the end of 2002.Except for a somewhat robust recovery between August 2003 and December 2007, growth is this sector has been fairly flat… especially since April 2009
Fairly sustained growth in BI openings since 2006
Enterprise Database specialist for ORACLE and SAP move in tandem!.. ORACLE slightly leading SAP
Robust growth in IT Project Mgt Openings beginning in Jan 2011– a good sign!!
Job Openings in IT and Decision Sciences
Jobs in IT & DS: Texas A Small BI ProjectShows Texas Is Still Leading the Technology Job Recovery Jerry L. Dake & Jack D. Becker University of North Texas Information Technology & Decision Sciences (ITDS) Department
Introduction – Why?• IT & Decision Science majors difficult to attract• Try to find ways to help grow our majors• Decided to use BI in a creative, entertaining, engaging way for our students to see benefits of IT and DS – they like to see job openings that pay well• Mined the online real-time CareerBuilder.com database for job openings
THE FRAGILE STATE OF TALENT MANAGEMENT A crisis ahead that wont be financial*• The continuing war for talent**
Changes in Direction• Project has taken additional dimensions (2006 – present) – Tracking more job categories – Forecasting market trends – Leading economic indicator• Many limitations for serious research, but serves as a valuable set of data for our students, the Center for Decision & Information Technologies’ members and the ITDS Department• A directional set of data• Aside: Structural Unemployment issues foretell an overall depressing job market into the future. Specific skills will become very important… J. Dake (2006)
Tracking More Categories The World Changes 2006 2007 2008 2009 ANALYST VIRTUAL GIS CLOUD 6 SIGMA BUDGET INFO. TECH LEAN PLANNING LIFECYCLE SAS STRATEGY ENT. ARCH. DATA CONSULTING IT PROJ. MGT. BI INNOVATION QUALITY SAP SCORECARD ORACLE GRAPHIC FORECAST VISUALPERFORMANCE MRO SUPPLY LOGISTICS
Tracking More Categories Sometimes the Mind Moves Slowly (BFO’s) 2010 2011 2012 2012 continued ProcessImprovement 0 Mobile Apps Big Data Dashboard Gas Risk Mgt. Oil Social Media Chemical SharePoint Petroleum SQL .NET SPSS NoSQL Apache Hadoop
Forecasting Market Trends• Existing Job Categories – Are the jobs we are educating our students to fill increasing or declining? – Technical Change in the world? – Economic Change in the world? – Cultural Change in the world?• New Job Categories – What do we need to educate our students for over the coming years to serve industry and keep our students the most competitive? – Technical Drivers? – Economic Drivers? – Cultural Drivers?
Job Openings for IT-related Jobs Leading Economic Indicator?• Traditional data sources are 2 or more months behind the real-time data sources – Sample data collection screen (next slide)• Collected data from Careerbuilder.com on job postings within the last 30 days – looking forward data?• Data collected on approximately the 15th of every month.• Categories of job growth or decline for our students.• Are we likely to see tax revenue growth for the state?
Compare Real-time Data to Other Data Sources• Bureau of Labor Statistics – Employment/Unemployment data – Job Openings Data• Private reporting agencies – Gartner, Forrester, etc.• Credibility of Real-time data??
JOLT Data for Information Industry Job (2006 thru Present)Openings & LaborTurnover
E.g., IT Project Mgt Takes Off• In last year IT Project Management openings have literally taken off• One anomaly drop in April 2011??• Essentially job openings increased 6Xs from 500+ to over 3,500!!
Information Technology & Decision Sciences University of North Texas - MSDSCI 5240 Data-Based Decision Support Systems (DataMining)DSCI 5330 Enterprise Applications of Business IntelligenceDSCI 5340 Predictive Analytics and Business ForecastingDSCI 5350 Big Data Analytics - Fall 2013DSCI ???? Analytics of Data Visualization & Exploration(2014)
Information Technology & Decision Sciences University of North Texas - BBA• DSCI 2710 (Business Stats I)• DSCI 3710 (Business Stats II)• DSCI 3870 (Management Science)• DSCI 4510 (Model-based Decision Support Systems)• DSCI 4520 (Data-based Decision Support Systems• DSCI 4700 (Problem Solving and Decision Making Process)• BCIS 4660 (Decision Software Design)• MGMT 3830 (Operations Management)• Approved Supporting Courses (12 semester hours)• We require the students to choose a functional area, outside of Decision Sciences, so they will have grounding in a functional area of their choice. This requires 12 semester hours of upper division course work in that functional area; to include one international course. Our students have completed these hours in everything in business like finance or marketing to other fields; such as geography (GIS) to math(for actuarial analysis).