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- 1. Probability Distributions of the Relative Saturation and Saturated Areas of a River Basin Salvatore Manfreda and Mauro Fiorentino Dipartimento di Ingegneria e Fisica dell’Ambiente, Università degli Studi della Basilicata EGU - General Assembly Vienna EGU - General18 April 2008 (Austria), 13 - Assembly, Vienna (Austria), 13 - 18 April 2008 1
- 2. Water Balance Dynamics in a River Basin: Outlines Soil moisture dynamics driven by a stochastic rainfall forcing; Dynamics of soil water balance in a schematic river basin; Effects due to the soil heterogeneity in basin response; Investigation on the dynamics of significant hydrological variable such as the saturated portion of a basin and of its relative saturation; Investigation on the dynamics of probability distribution of the produced runoff. EGU - General Assembly, Vienna (Austria), 13 - 18 April 2008 2
- 3. Model Assumptions WM' WMM Wmax The watershed heterogeneity is described using a parabolic curve for the water storage capacity of the soil (Zhao et al., 1980) Soil Water Content Wmax Eq.1 0 1 a Saturated portion of the basin where f/F represents the fraction of the basin with water storage capacity ≤WM’, WMM represents the maximum value of the water storage capacity in the basin and b is a shape parameter that according to Zhao (1992) assumes values between 0.1-0.4 increasing with the characteristic dimension of the basin. Wmax is the total water storage capacity. EGU - General Assembly, Vienna (Austria), 13 - 18 April 2008 3
- 4. Definitions The watershed-average soil moisture storage at time t, is the integral of 1-f/F between zero and WM*t water content Wmax Eq.2 A relevant variable for this problem is given by the relative saturation, s, expressed as the ratio between watershed-average soil moisture storage and the total available volume W WMM max Wmax Eq.3 Runoff Y WM t The relative water level Wt Wmax Eq.4 0 f/F 1 Saturated portion of the basin EGU - General Assembly, Vienna (Austria), 13 - 18 April 2008 4
- 5. V Soil water losses Soil Water Losses WM' Wmax WMM A possible approximation for the sum of soil leakage and actual evapotranspiration is given by a linear function (e.g., Pan et al., 2003; Porporato et al., 2004) where the soil losses are assumed to be proportional to the soil water content in a point 0 1 a Eq.5 that, at the basin scale, becomes Wmax Eq.7 Wmax EGU - General Assembly, Vienna (Austria), 13 - 18 April 2008 5
- 6. Soil Water Balance at Basin Scale The soil water balance over the basin can be described through the following differential equation in WMt Wmax Eq.8 where Y represents an additive term of infiltration (poisson process) and water losses are assumed to be proportional to the relative saturation of the basin s. The above differential equation after the standardization of the variables becomes Wmax Eq.9 with Wmax EGU - General Assembly, Vienna (Austria), 13 - 18 April 2008 6
- 7. Solution at the Steady State Following Rodrìguez-Iturbe et al. (1999), the steady state probability density function of R with the simplified loss function ρ(R) can be obtained as Eq.10 the constant C1 assumes the following value Eq.11 Under these hypotheses, it is possible to define the probability distribution of saturated areas from the probability density function of R as Eq.12 where EGU - General Assembly, Vienna (Austria), 13 - 18 April 2008 7
- 8. Results: PDFs of s and a EGU - General Assembly, Vienna (Austria), 13 - 18 April 2008 8
- 9. Numerical Simulation Temporal dynamics of saturated areas for different values of wmax and b reproduced by a numerical simulation performed at the daily time-scale. EGU - General Assembly, Vienna (Austria), 13 - 18 April 2008 9
- 10. Expected Value and Standard Deviation of a Expected value and standard deviation of the saturated area as a function of the soil water losses coefficient V Saturated areas reach the maximum variance when the soil water losses coefficient is equal to the mean daily rainfall. EGU - General Assembly, Vienna (Austria), 13 - 18 April 2008 10
- 11. Probability Distribution of Runoff In the present scheme, the runoff can be described through the following equation Eq.13 In order to derive the probability distribution of runoff, one should integrate the join probability distribution of rainfall, Y, and R Runoff R' R 0 1 Y > (1-R)WMM WMM Y [mm] Y < (1-R)WMM EGU - General Assembly, Vienna (Austria), 13 - 18 April 2008 11
- 12. Runoff Probability Distributions Rainfall CDF PQHq¥QL PQHq¥QL 1 1 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 Decreasing Wmax WMM 0.1 Increasing soil water 0.05 from 150 up to 10cm 0.05 losses (V) from 5 to 40mm/day 0.02 0.02 Runoff @mmD Runoff @mmD 0 10 20 30 40 0 10 20 30 40 PQ Hq¥QL PQHq¥QL 1 1 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 Decreasing b from 0.4 to 0.1 0.1 Increasing λ from 0.05 0.05 0.1 up to 0.4 0.02 0.02 Runoff @mmD Runoff @mmD 0 10 20 30 40 0 10 20 30 40 EGU - General Assembly, Vienna (Austria), 13 - 18 April 2008 12
- 13. Conclusion Definition of a feasible mathematical characterization of soil moisture dynamics at the basin scale (humid environment); Effects due to the soil heterogeneity in basin response; Derivation of the probability density function of the saturated portion of a basin and of its relative saturation; Derivation of the cumulative probability distribution of the produced runoff with a clear dependence from climatic and physiographic basin characteristics. EGU - General Assembly, Vienna (Austria), 13 - 18 April 2008 13
- 14. Papers related to this research line… Manfreda, S., M. Fiorentino, A Stochastic Approach for the Description of the Water Balance Dynamics in a River Basin, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 5, 723-748, 2008. Manfreda, S., M. McCabe, E.F. Wood, M. Fiorentino and I. Rodríguez-Iturbe, Spatial Patterns of Soil Moisture from Distributed Modeling, Advances in Water Resources, 30(10), 2145-2150, 2007, (doi: 10.1016/j.advwatres.2006.07.009). Fiorentino, M., S. Manfreda, V. Iacobellis, Peak Runoff Contributing Area as Hydrological Signature of the Probability Distribution of Floods, Advances in Water Resources, 30(10), 2123- 2144, 2007 (doi: 10.1016/ j.advwatres.2006.11.017). EGU - General Assembly, Vienna (Austria), 13 - 18 April 2008 14
- 15. Thanks for your attention… EGU - General Assembly, Vienna (Austria), 13 - 18 April 2008 15

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