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Berry et al


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Berry et al

  1. 1. Next Assignment <ul><li>Read Berry et al (1998) </li></ul><ul><li>Answer questions on PS 372 blog </li></ul><ul><li>Due next Friday (9/24) </li></ul>
  2. 2. Berry, Ringquist, Fording, Hanson (1998) <ul><li>Developed two widely used state-level measures </li></ul><ul><ul><li>State citizen ideology </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>State government ideology </li></ul></ul>
  3. 3. State Citizen Ideology <ul><li>Pre-Berry measures did not account for variation over time. </li></ul><ul><li>Some scholars previously contended citizen ideology had not changed much since World War II </li></ul><ul><li>However, the attitudes of voters surveyed by pollsters tells a different story (Stimson, 1991) </li></ul>
  4. 5. State Government Ideology <ul><li>Most previous measures of state government ideology did not account for regional or state-level differences within parties </li></ul><ul><li>The Erikson, Wright and McIver scores did account for these differences, but does not… </li></ul><ul><ul><li>vary longitudinally (over time) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>account for the influence of the governor over policy-making </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>account for institutional factors that limit minority party power </li></ul></ul>
  5. 6. Challenges <ul><li>Surveys of citizen attitudes in a particular state are only available for some years and not others </li></ul><ul><li>No consistent ideological assessment of state legislators </li></ul>
  6. 7. Strategy <ul><li>Use interest group ratings of members of Congress </li></ul><ul><li>Supplement with election returns for congressional races </li></ul><ul><li>Also use data on party composition of state legislatures and governors' party affiliation </li></ul>
  7. 8. Citizen Ideology <ul><li>1) Identify each legislator's interest group ideology </li></ul><ul><li>2) Develop a district-based measure based on the incumbent's ideology and the (hypothetical) challenger's ideology </li></ul><ul><li>3) Weight each measure by the percentage of votes won by each candidate </li></ul>
  8. 9. Citizen Ideology <ul><li>Where d = district and t = time </li></ul><ul><li>INCSUPP = proportion voting for incumbent </li></ul><ul><li>INCIDEO = incumbent ideology </li></ul><ul><li>CHALSUPP = proportion voting for challenger </li></ul><ul><li>CHALIDEO = challenger ideology </li></ul>
  9. 10. Challenger Ideology <ul><li>Because challenger ideology is not directly observable the authors use the mean ideology score for all incumbents of the same party and state as the challenger. </li></ul>
  10. 11. Government Ideology <ul><li>Ideology estimation is not directly available for most state legislators </li></ul><ul><li>Berry et al assume the average state legislator has the same ideology as the average member of Congress from his/her party. </li></ul><ul><li>Governor ideology is measured the same way as state legislator ideology. </li></ul>
  11. 13. State Government Ideology
  12. 19. Recent Pres Elections
  13. 20. 2008 Presidential Election
  14. 21. 2008 Presidential Election by County