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Dicition making 5


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Dicition making 5

  1. 1. - - 2 Decision Making is a choice made between two or more alternatives. It is choosing the best alternative to reach the predetermined objective. Thus decision-making is a process of identifying and selecting a course of action to solve specific problem.
  2. 2. - - 3 Another definition : A systematic approach to defining the problem and creating a vast number of possible solutions without judging these solutions.
  3. 3. - - 4 • Types of Decisions : 1. Programmed decisions: repetitive and routine decisions. • Decision’s rule identifies the situation and specifies how the decision will be made. 2. Non-programmed decisions • Decisions made in complex and non- routine situations. – Problem hasn’t arisen before. – It is difficult to define problem’s nature and structure. – Problem is important and requires a unique solution.
  4. 4. - - 5 Major Decision-Making Process
  5. 5. - - 6
  6. 6. - - 7 Step 1: Identify the decision to be made. You realize that a decision must be made. You then go through an internal process of trying to define clearly the nature of the decision you must make. This first step is a very important one.
  7. 7. - - 8 Step 2: Gather relevant information. Most decisions require collecting pertinent information. The real trick in this step is to know what information is needed, the best sources of this information, and how to go about getting it. Some information must be sought from within yourself through a process of self-assessment; other information must be sought from outside yourself-from books, people, and a variety of other sources. This step, therefore, involves both internal and external “work”.
  8. 8. - - 9 Step3:Identify alternatives. Through the process of collecting information you will probably identify several possible paths of action, or alternatives. You may also use your imagination and information to construct new alternatives. In this step of the decision-making process, you will list all possible and desirable alternatives.
  9. 9. - - 10 Step 4: Weigh evidence. In this step, you draw on your information and emotions to imagine what it would be like if you carried out each of the alternatives to the end. You must evaluate whether the need identified in Step 1 would be helped or solved through the use of each alternative. In going through this difficult internal process, you begin to favor certain alternatives which appear to have higher potential for reaching your goal. Eventually you are able to place the alternatives in priority order, based upon your own value system.
  10. 10. - - 11 Step5:Choose among alternatives. Once you have weighed all the evidence, you are ready to select the alternative which seems to be best suited to you. You may even choose a combination of alternatives. Your choice in Step 5 may very likely be the same or similar to the alternative you placed at the top of your list at the end of Step 4.
  11. 11. - - 12 Step 6: Take action. You now take some positive action which begins to implement the alternative you chose in Step 5.
  12. 12. - - 13 Step 7: Review decision and consequences. In the last step you experience the results of your decision and evaluate whether or not it has “solved” the need you identified in Step 1. If it has, you may stay with this decision for some period of time. If the decision has not resolved the identified need, you may repeat certain steps of the process in order to make a new decision. You may, for example, gather more detailed or somewhat different information or discover additional alternatives on which to base your decision.
  13. 13. - - 14 Problem Solving • Problem Solving – The conscious process of closing the gap between actual and desired situations. – Problem solving is a Cognitive Processing directed at achieving a goal where no solution method is obvious to the problem solver. Problem solving is the mental process you follow when you have a goal but can’t immediately understand how to achieve it. It’s a process that depends on you – how you perceive a problem, what you know about it, and the end-state you want to reach.
  14. 14. - - 15 • Solving a problem involves a number of cognitive activities: 1. ascertaining what the problem really is 2. identifying the true causes of your problem and the opportunities for reaching your goal 3. generating creative solutions to the problem 4. evaluating and choosing the best solution, and implementing the best solution, then monitoring your actions and their results to ensure the problem is solved successfully. Clearly, problem solving isn't a one-step process. Your success will depend on whether you approach and implement each of the stages effectively. The best way to do this is to use a well-established, systematic problem- solving model.
  15. 15. - - 16 The steps in the problem-solving model are as follows: 1.Define the problem – Defining the problem is a crucial step that involves digging deeper to identify what it is that needs to be solved. The more clearly a problem is defined, the easier you’ll find it to complete subsequent steps. A symptom is a phenomenon or circumstance that results from a deeper, underlying condition. It’s common to mistake symptoms for problems themselves – and so to waste a lot of time and effort on tackling consequences of problems instead of their causes. To define a problem, you can use gap analysis, which involves comparing your current state to the future state you want to be in, to identify the gaps between them.
  16. 16. - - 17 2.Analyze the problem – You decide what type of problem it is – whether there’s a clear barrier or circumstance you need to overcome, or whether you need to determine how to reach a goal. You then dig to the root causes of the problem, and detail the nature of the gap between where you are and where you want to be. The five-why analysis is a tool that’ll help you get to the heart of the problem. Ask “Why?” a number of times to dig through each layer of symptoms and so to arrive at the problem’s root cause. You can get to the root of a more complicated problem using a cause-and-effect diagram. A cause is something that produces an effect, result, or consequence – or what contributed to the current state of affairs. Categories of causes include people, time, and the environment.
  17. 17. - - 18 3.Identify as many potential solutions as you can – Brainstorm creatively ask lots of questions about the who, what, where, when, and how of the causes to point to various possibilities. Don’t limit yourself by considering practicalities at this stage; simply record your ideas
  18. 18. - - 19 4.Choose the best solution – In evaluating your ideas, more options could present themselves. You could do this by rating each possible solution you came up with in step 3 according to criteria such as how effective it will be, how much time or effort it will take, its cost, and how likely it is to satisfy stakeholders
  19. 19. - - 20 5.Plan of action – During this step, you determine what steps must be taken, designating tasks where necessary. And you decide on deadlines for completing the actions and estimate the costs of implementing them. You also create a contingency plan in case of unforeseen circumstances so that if anything goes wrong with your plan, you have a “plan B” in place. Typically, this stage involves narrowing down the possible ways to implement the solution you’ve chosen, based on any constraints that apply. You also should draw up an action plan. The complexity of the plan will depend on the situation, but it should include the who, what, and when of your proposed solution.
  20. 20. - - 21 6.Implement the solution – This is an ongoing process. You need to ensure the required resources remain available and monitor progress in solving the problem; otherwise, all the work you’ve done might be for nothing
  21. 21. - - 22 Remember that this model is highly adaptable. Although you shouldn’t skip any of the six steps, you can tailor the amount of time you spend on each stage based on the demands of your unique situation.