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FluCast
Risk assessment and Forecast of
seasonal flu in real time
YIXIN HU, SANDEEP SHANTHARAM AND LASIFU TA
Data Sciences...
FluCast - Mobile App for Risk and Forecast of Flu
Why Flu?
Infectious respiratory disease causing Seasonal Epidemic
$71-16...
FluCast - Mobile App for Risk and Forecast of Flu
Need for Mobile App
Target Customers
- Epidemiologists – primary
- Trans...
FluCast - Mobile App for Risk and Forecast of Flu
Flu Forecast
August 6, 2014 4
FluCast - Mobile App for Risk and Forecast of Flu
Flu Forecast – Approach
Prediction with data from historical flu cases, ...
FluCast - Mobile App for Risk and Forecast of Flu
Flu Forecast – Approach
August 6, 2014 6
H1N1
FluCast - Mobile App for Risk and Forecast of Flu
Flu Forecast – Implementation
Automated data retrieval from CDC and Prog...
FluCast - Mobile App for Risk and Forecast of Flu
Flu Forecast – UX Design
August 6, 2014 8
FluCast - Mobile App for Risk and Forecast of Flu
Flu Forecast – UX Design
August 6, 2014 9
FluCast - Mobile App for Risk and Forecast of Flu
Data Sharing
August 6, 2014 10
FluCast - Mobile App for Risk and Forecast of Flu
Data Sharing – Approach
Information Sharing and Collaboration between Ep...
FluCast - Mobile App for Risk and Forecast of Flu
Data Sharing – Implementation
Sharing the screenshot of the active windo...
FluCast - Mobile App for Risk and Forecast of Flu
Data Sharing – UX Design
August 6, 2014 13
FluCast - Mobile App for Risk and Forecast of Flu
Flu Stream
August 6, 2014 14
FluCast - Mobile App for Risk and Forecast of Flu
Flu Stream – Approach
News stream from RSS feeds of flu related websites...
FluCast - Mobile App for Risk and Forecast of Flu
Flu Stream – Implementation
Flu Stream is updated every hour for both RS...
FluCast - Mobile App for Risk and Forecast of Flu
Flu Stream – UX Design
August 6, 2014 17
FluCast - Mobile App for Risk and Forecast of Flu
Flu Stream – UX Design
August 6, 2014 18
FluCast - Mobile App for Risk and Forecast of Flu
Outbreak Alert
August 6, 2014 19
FluCast - Mobile App for Risk and Forecast of Flu
Outbreak Alert – Approach
Real-time monitoring of Twitter stream for the...
FluCast - Mobile App for Risk and Forecast of Flu
Outbreak Alert – Approach
August 6, 2014 21
H1N1
FluCast - Mobile App for Risk and Forecast of Flu
Outbreak Alert – Implementation
Live data stream from twitter allows for...
FluCast - Mobile App for Risk and Forecast of Flu
Outbreak Alert – UX Design
August 6, 2014 23
FluCast - Mobile App for Risk and Forecast of Flu
Competition
August 6, 2014 24
FluCast - Mobile App for Risk and Forecast of Flu
Benefit
August 6, 2014 25
FluCast - Mobile App for Risk and Forecast of Flu
Future Direction
July 22, 2014 26
Option for robust prediction models
Of...
FluCast - Mobile App for Risk and Forecast of Flu
Acknowledgement
August 6, 2014 27
Technical Staff
Harisson, Joshua J
Dow...
FluCast - Mobile App for Risk and Forecast of Flu
Yixin Hu – Data Analyst
Columbia University
Android Team One
Lasifu Ta –...
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FluCast - Android Application to Forecast Flu

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FluCast - Android Application to Forecast Flu

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FluCast - Android Application to Forecast Flu

  1. 1. FluCast Risk assessment and Forecast of seasonal flu in real time YIXIN HU, SANDEEP SHANTHARAM AND LASIFU TA Data Sciences & Analytics Group, Computational & Statistical Analytics Division, National Security Directorate PNNL-SA-104651
  2. 2. FluCast - Mobile App for Risk and Forecast of Flu Why Flu? Infectious respiratory disease causing Seasonal Epidemic $71-167 billion per year spent on “Flu” in the U.S. Transmission rate between humans is high Keywords of flu symptoms are expressed on Social Media Rich and Varied data sources for disease analysis August 6, 2014 2
  3. 3. FluCast - Mobile App for Risk and Forecast of Flu Need for Mobile App Target Customers - Epidemiologists – primary - Transport / School / Company Officials – secondary Customer Needs - Decrease time to action - Enhance collaboration - Access to varied data sources - Targeted flu news - Mobile analytics app August 6, 2014 3
  4. 4. FluCast - Mobile App for Risk and Forecast of Flu Flu Forecast August 6, 2014 4
  5. 5. FluCast - Mobile App for Risk and Forecast of Flu Flu Forecast – Approach Prediction with data from historical flu cases, weather and social media. ARIMA Model for flu prediction with Time-Series data. Forecasting three weeks ahead of CDC. Estimated flu cases with accuracy about 90% August 6, 2014 5
  6. 6. FluCast - Mobile App for Risk and Forecast of Flu Flu Forecast – Approach August 6, 2014 6 H1N1
  7. 7. FluCast - Mobile App for Risk and Forecast of Flu Flu Forecast – Implementation Automated data retrieval from CDC and Programmatically access weather and twitter data from NOAA and Twitter Flask web framework for backend REST API with Mongo Database suited for time series data Jquery Mobile to build the HTML5 App PhoneGap framework for transformation August 6, 2014 7
  8. 8. FluCast - Mobile App for Risk and Forecast of Flu Flu Forecast – UX Design August 6, 2014 8
  9. 9. FluCast - Mobile App for Risk and Forecast of Flu Flu Forecast – UX Design August 6, 2014 9
  10. 10. FluCast - Mobile App for Risk and Forecast of Flu Data Sharing August 6, 2014 10
  11. 11. FluCast - Mobile App for Risk and Forecast of Flu Data Sharing – Approach Information Sharing and Collaboration between Epidemiologists Sharing data within a group of trusted individuals Communication between the analysts over E-mail Sharing public domain information to Social Network August 6, 2014 11
  12. 12. FluCast - Mobile App for Risk and Forecast of Flu Data Sharing – Implementation Sharing the screenshot of the active window and data in tabular form Information sharing through the phone’s email application Ability to create groups with the contacts on the analyst’s phone Sharing public level data to Social Networks like Facebook, Twitter August 6, 2014 12
  13. 13. FluCast - Mobile App for Risk and Forecast of Flu Data Sharing – UX Design August 6, 2014 13
  14. 14. FluCast - Mobile App for Risk and Forecast of Flu Flu Stream August 6, 2014 14
  15. 15. FluCast - Mobile App for Risk and Forecast of Flu Flu Stream – Approach News stream from RSS feeds of flu related websites like CDC and WHO Twitter real-time stream with geo-location for tweets related to Flu Stay updated with the news from the RSS and Twitter in real time Share the News article and Tweets to Social Network August 6, 2014 15
  16. 16. FluCast - Mobile App for Risk and Forecast of Flu Flu Stream – Implementation Flu Stream is updated every hour for both RSS and Twitter Stream Items in News stream and Twitter stream are geotagged to allow analysts identify the location associated Geotagging by the list of keywords based on states and usage of natural language processing to tokenize the keywords Sharing to all third party apps with the phones in-built share function August 6, 2014 16
  17. 17. FluCast - Mobile App for Risk and Forecast of Flu Flu Stream – UX Design August 6, 2014 17
  18. 18. FluCast - Mobile App for Risk and Forecast of Flu Flu Stream – UX Design August 6, 2014 18
  19. 19. FluCast - Mobile App for Risk and Forecast of Flu Outbreak Alert August 6, 2014 19
  20. 20. FluCast - Mobile App for Risk and Forecast of Flu Outbreak Alert – Approach Real-time monitoring of Twitter stream for the flu symptom mentions Exponential Smoothing Model used in calculating the threshold value Push Notification to the analyst, for possible outbreaks on a daily basis August 6, 2014 20
  21. 21. FluCast - Mobile App for Risk and Forecast of Flu Outbreak Alert – Approach August 6, 2014 21 H1N1
  22. 22. FluCast - Mobile App for Risk and Forecast of Flu Outbreak Alert – Implementation Live data stream from twitter allows for real-time analysis Tweets are automatically geotagged as the data is streamed Push notification to the analyst based on the twitter mentions being higher than threshold value for high risk Push Notification to the device with related information gathered from twitter for Outbreak Conditions August 6, 2014 22
  23. 23. FluCast - Mobile App for Risk and Forecast of Flu Outbreak Alert – UX Design August 6, 2014 23
  24. 24. FluCast - Mobile App for Risk and Forecast of Flu Competition August 6, 2014 24
  25. 25. FluCast - Mobile App for Risk and Forecast of Flu Benefit August 6, 2014 25
  26. 26. FluCast - Mobile App for Risk and Forecast of Flu Future Direction July 22, 2014 26 Option for robust prediction models Offline access to the app Subtyping Flu Data source from multiple social networks Better Twitter Data Analysis Analyst reporting
  27. 27. FluCast - Mobile App for Risk and Forecast of Flu Acknowledgement August 6, 2014 27 Technical Staff Harisson, Joshua J Dowling, Chase P Henry, Michael J Franklin, Lyndsey R Lancaster, Mary Managerial Staff Spence, Christine N Noonan, Christine F Cowley, Wendy E Corley, Courtney D Didier, Brett T
  28. 28. FluCast - Mobile App for Risk and Forecast of Flu Yixin Hu – Data Analyst Columbia University Android Team One Lasifu Ta – UX Designer/ Front-end University of Washington Sandeep Shantharam – Developer Indiana University Purdue University, Indianapolis Thank you! August 6, 2014 28

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