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globo.com

Sunday, September 9, 12               1
globo      Scrum beyond the basics
                          .com


Sunday, September 9, 12                                    2
Igor Macaúbas
                           http://about.me/macaubas
                                     @igor




Sunday, September 9, 12                               3
Sunday, September 9, 12   4
Sunday, September 9, 12   5
12
                          anos de estrada

Sunday, September 9, 12                     6
550.000+
                          assinantes
Sunday, September 9, 12                7
200+ Gbps
                          de banda*
                                * 2 datacenters - RJ e SP
Sunday, September 9, 12                                     8
500+
                          funcionários
                                  27 times multidisciplinares
Sunday, September 9, 12                                         9
Sunday, September 9, 12   10
Sunday, September 9, 12   11
Sunday, September 9, 12   12
Sunday, September 9, 12   13
Sunday, September 9, 12   14
Sunday, September 9, 12   15
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Sunday, September 9, 12   17
Sunday, September 9, 12   18
Sunday, September 9, 12   19
Sunday, September 9, 12   20
NÃO
Sunday, September 9, 12         21
Sunday, September 9, 12   22
Sunday, September 9, 12   23
Sunday, September 9, 12   24
Desenvolvimento ágil é um
                     sistema de valores - não um
                               processo!


Sunday, September 9, 12                             25
As pessoas são a parte
                           mais importante desse
                                  sistema!

Sunday, September 9, 12                            26
Sunday, September 9, 12   27
“aquele todo complexo que inclui o conhecimento, as crenças, a
         arte, a moral, a lei, os costumes e todos os outros hábitos e
       aptidões adquiridos pelo homem como membro da sociedade”
                                                          Edward B. Taylor




Sunday, September 9, 12                                                      28
Sunday, September 9, 12   29
Sunday, September 9, 12   30
Sunday, September 9, 12   31
Sunday, September 9, 12   32
Sunday, September 9, 12   33
Sunday, September 9, 12   34
Sunday, September 9, 12   35
Sunday, September 9, 12   36
Sistema de gestão
                              globo.com

Sunday, September 9, 12                       37
Sunday, September 9, 12   38
Planejamento
Sunday, September 9, 12   39
Sunday, September 9, 12   40
Acompanhamento
Sunday, September 9, 12   41
Sunday, September 9, 12   42
Reports A3 - Toyota




Sunday, September 9, 12                         44
Sunday, September 9, 12
                          “Melhoramento”   45
Sunday, September 9, 12   46
Sunday, September 9, 12   47
Sunday, September 9, 12   48
Velocity
  40

  35

  30

  25

  20

  15

  10
                                                                                                                          Entregue
   5
                                                                                                                          Estimado
   0                                                                                                                      Vel. média
        4                      5         6             1                  2                 3        4                5
                                                       Product Burndown
  150
  135            140
  120                              131

  105
   90                                                      98
   75                                                                         83
   60                                                                                                67
   45                                                       36
                    27                   31                                        27                    30
   30
   15                                                                                                                     Backlog restante
                              18                  -2                 21                         11                0
    0                                                                                                                     Entregue Sprint
  -15                                                                                                                     Cancelado/adicionado
                          1                   2                  3                      4                     5
Sunday, September 9, 12                                                                                                                          49
Project risk management
              ‣   Risk management do planejamento do projeto (Product Backlog)
              ‣   Forecast que monitora quantos sprints temos em backlog
              ‣   Numero ótimo: maior que 2,5 menor que 4
              ‣   Inventado pelo Danilo Bardusco

                                       Backlog Total
                                   Velocidade média * 3
                                                     Ref: http://macaubas.com/agile/backlog-ready
Sunday, September 9, 12                                                                        50
Backlog ready - exemplo
              ‣   Velocity:
                    ‣     25 story points
              ‣   Product backlog no início do sprint:
                    ‣     120 story points
              ‣   Backlog ready:
                    ‣     120 / (25 * 3) = 160%
              ‣   Significa que no início deste sprint, havia backlog para 4.8 sprints
                                                            Ref: http://macaubas.com/agile/backlog-ready
Sunday, September 9, 12                                                                               51
Backlog ready - na prática
                                                        Backlog ready
            200%

             175%         187%
                                 170%
             150%

             125%
                                                  118%
             100%

               75%                                                  88%
                                                                                  71%
              50%

               25%                                                                             40%

                0%
                           1      2                3                    4          5             6
                                        Backlog ready          Minimo desejável

                                                                   Ref: http://macaubas.com/agile/backlog-ready
Sunday, September 9, 12                                                                                      52
Sprint risk
                          forecasting
          Complexidade média       Taxa de sucesso


Sunday, September 9, 12                              53
Sprint risk forecasting
              ‣   Risk management do planejamento do sprint (Sprint Backlog)
              ‣   Métrica de forecast do sprint
              ‣   Numero ótimo: depende do time
              ‣   Inventado por mim
                     Insight - há uma relação inversamente proporcional entre o
                    tamanho médio das histórias planejadas no sprint backlog e a
                                       taxa de entrega do sprint

                                                               Ref: TBD - http://macaubas.com/
Sunday, September 9, 12                                                                          54
Sprint risk forecasting
              ‣   Complexidade média:
                    ‣     Média aritimética do sprint backlog (início do sprint)
                    ‣     Complexidade planejada: 26 pontos, em 7 histórias
                    ‣     Complexidade média: 26/7 = 3.25




                                                                      Ref: TBD - http://macaubas.com/
Sunday, September 9, 12                                                                                 55
Sprint risk forecasting
              ‣   Taxa de sucesso
                    ‣     % de pontos entregues de fato, em relação ao planejado
                    ‣     Complexidade planejada: 26 pontos
                    ‣     Complexidade entregue: 27 pontos
                          (time entregou mais do que o planejado)

                    ‣     Taxa de sucesso: (26/27)*100 = 104%


                                                                    Ref: TBD - http://macaubas.com/
Sunday, September 9, 12                                                                               56
Tamanho médio - na prática
                                  Tamanho média das histórias
               6                                                     5.6                     250%

                                                                                       4.9
               5                                                                             200%
                                              4.0

               4 3.3      3.2                                                                150%

                104%      107%               100%
               2                                                                             100%
                                                                                       77%
                                                                     69%

               1                                                                              50%


               0                                                                              0%
                   1       2                   3                      4                 5

                                 Complexidade Media     Taxa de sucesso

                                                           Ref: http://macaubas.com/agile/backlog-ready
Sunday, September 9, 12                                                                              57
E daí?


Sunday, September 9, 12            59
Sprint risk forecasting
              ‣   É possível prever o resultado do sprint (taxa de sucesso)
                  baseado em dados históricos!
              ‣   Regressão linear simples (least square estimates),
                    ‣     Entrada = complexidade média das histórias do sprint atual.
                    ‣     Entrada = histórico de compl. média & taxa de sucesso
                    ‣     Saída = forecast da taxa de sucesso do sprint que está
                          começando
                                                                    Ref: TBD - http://macaubas.com/
Sunday, September 9, 12                                                                               60
Sprint risk forecasting
                    Sprints    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9    10   11   12    13   14   15   16   17   18
          Compl. planejada     20   32   16   17   37   30   36   40   47   50   34   51    19   21   45   24   40   41
          Compl. entregue      50   43   9    32   29   35   31   40   53   62   46   46    20   24   45   34   42   47
          Qtd planejado        4    9    6    5    12   8    9    8    14   17   10   16     9   10   20   10   14   14
          Qtd entregue         20   17   6    13   13   13   8    9    17   22   14   17    10   13   21   15   15   18
          Complexidade
                              1.00 1.88 2.67 1.31 2.85 2.31 4.50 4.44 2.76 2.27 2.43 3.00 1.90 1.62 2.14 1.60 2.67 2.28
          Media
          Taxa de sucesso     250% 134% 56% 188% 78% 117% 86% 100% 113% 124% 135% 90% 105% 114% 100% 142% 105% 115%



         19o Sprint:
                                                                            Taxa de sucesso prevista:
         Complexidade planejada: 48
                                                                                      102%
         Quantidade de histórias: 16
         Complexidade média: 3                                                             Ref: TBD - http://macaubas.com/
Sunday, September 9, 12                                                                                                      61
Sunday, September 9, 12   62
Sunday, September 9, 12   63
Sprint risk forecasting in action
                          Taxa de sucesso prevista       Nível de risco


                            maior ou igual a 95%             Baixo


                              entre 95% e 80%               Médio


                             entre 80% e 70%                 Alto


                              menor que 70%          Fujam para as colinas!

                                                                 Ref: TBD - http://macaubas.com/
Sunday, September 9, 12                                                                            64
Sprint risk forecasting
              ‣   Massa de dados:
                    ‣     Coleta em 2 times por 18 sprints (G1 e Ego)
                    ‣     Coleta em 3 times por 9 sprints, e contando (Webmedia)




                                                                        Ref: TBD - http://macaubas.com/
Sunday, September 9, 12                                                                                   65
Sunday, September 9, 12   66
globo                         Crie tendência,

                               .com
                                                             venha construir o
                                                             futuro da internet.
                                                             AGILE
                                                             SCRUM

                          Venha trabalhar                    PYTHON
                                                             DJANGO

                           com a gente                       RUBY ON RAILS
                                                             JAVA
                                                             JAVASCRIPT
                                                             HTML5
                          Você cria, 45 milhões              CSS
                           usam diariamente                  LINUX
                                                             MYSQL
                                                             OPEN-SOURCE


   Vagas para desenvolvedores, SMs e POs                     globo.com/talentos
        Aceitamos candidatos de qualquer região do Brasil.
Sunday, September 9, 12                                                            67
Igor Macaúbas
                           http://about.me/macaubas
                                     @igor




Sunday, September 9, 12                               68
‣   Crédito das imagens aos seus criadores!
              ‣   http://www.flickr.com/photos/woodlouse/3984461581/ - numbers.jpg
              ‣   http://www.flickr.com/photos/pointshoot/2512909030/ - demolition.jpg
              ‣   http://www.flickr.com/photos/drift-words/10434156/ - gantt-chart.jpg
              ‣   http://www.flickr.com/photos/jasonpier/3546243380/ - soldiers.jpg
              ‣   http://www.flickr.com/photos/wonderlane/2748985530/ - want-change.jpg
              ‣   http://www.flickr.com/photos/londonmatt/3163571645/ - change-alley.jpg
              ‣   http://www.flickr.com/photos/nickelmedia/5379533031/ - native-american.jpg
              ‣   http://www.flickr.com/photos/firewall/4639732980 - lake-with-rocks.jpg
              ‣   http://www.flickr.com/photos/katska/5499031880/ - card-sorting.jpg
              ‣   http://www.flickr.com/photos/atelier_tee/2485049294/ - pillars.jpg
              ‣   http://www.flickr.com/photos/alper/5222966685/ - strategic-planning.jpg
              ‣   http://www.flickr.com/photos/37996583811@N01/5716819528/ - electronic heart




Sunday, September 9, 12                                                                        69

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Scrum beyond the basics

  • 2. globo Scrum beyond the basics .com Sunday, September 9, 12 2
  • 3. Igor Macaúbas http://about.me/macaubas @igor Sunday, September 9, 12 3
  • 6. 12 anos de estrada Sunday, September 9, 12 6
  • 7. 550.000+ assinantes Sunday, September 9, 12 7
  • 8. 200+ Gbps de banda* * 2 datacenters - RJ e SP Sunday, September 9, 12 8
  • 9. 500+ funcionários 27 times multidisciplinares Sunday, September 9, 12 9
  • 25. Desenvolvimento ágil é um sistema de valores - não um processo! Sunday, September 9, 12 25
  • 26. As pessoas são a parte mais importante desse sistema! Sunday, September 9, 12 26
  • 28. “aquele todo complexo que inclui o conhecimento, as crenças, a arte, a moral, a lei, os costumes e todos os outros hábitos e aptidões adquiridos pelo homem como membro da sociedade” Edward B. Taylor Sunday, September 9, 12 28
  • 37. Sistema de gestão globo.com Sunday, September 9, 12 37
  • 43. Reports A3 - Toyota Sunday, September 9, 12 44
  • 44. Sunday, September 9, 12 “Melhoramento” 45
  • 48. Velocity 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 Entregue 5 Estimado 0 Vel. média 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 Product Burndown 150 135 140 120 131 105 90 98 75 83 60 67 45 36 27 31 27 30 30 15 Backlog restante 18 -2 21 11 0 0 Entregue Sprint -15 Cancelado/adicionado 1 2 3 4 5 Sunday, September 9, 12 49
  • 49. Project risk management ‣ Risk management do planejamento do projeto (Product Backlog) ‣ Forecast que monitora quantos sprints temos em backlog ‣ Numero ótimo: maior que 2,5 menor que 4 ‣ Inventado pelo Danilo Bardusco Backlog Total Velocidade média * 3 Ref: http://macaubas.com/agile/backlog-ready Sunday, September 9, 12 50
  • 50. Backlog ready - exemplo ‣ Velocity: ‣ 25 story points ‣ Product backlog no início do sprint: ‣ 120 story points ‣ Backlog ready: ‣ 120 / (25 * 3) = 160% ‣ Significa que no início deste sprint, havia backlog para 4.8 sprints Ref: http://macaubas.com/agile/backlog-ready Sunday, September 9, 12 51
  • 51. Backlog ready - na prática Backlog ready 200% 175% 187% 170% 150% 125% 118% 100% 75% 88% 71% 50% 25% 40% 0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 Backlog ready Minimo desejável Ref: http://macaubas.com/agile/backlog-ready Sunday, September 9, 12 52
  • 52. Sprint risk forecasting Complexidade média Taxa de sucesso Sunday, September 9, 12 53
  • 53. Sprint risk forecasting ‣ Risk management do planejamento do sprint (Sprint Backlog) ‣ Métrica de forecast do sprint ‣ Numero ótimo: depende do time ‣ Inventado por mim Insight - há uma relação inversamente proporcional entre o tamanho médio das histórias planejadas no sprint backlog e a taxa de entrega do sprint Ref: TBD - http://macaubas.com/ Sunday, September 9, 12 54
  • 54. Sprint risk forecasting ‣ Complexidade média: ‣ Média aritimética do sprint backlog (início do sprint) ‣ Complexidade planejada: 26 pontos, em 7 histórias ‣ Complexidade média: 26/7 = 3.25 Ref: TBD - http://macaubas.com/ Sunday, September 9, 12 55
  • 55. Sprint risk forecasting ‣ Taxa de sucesso ‣ % de pontos entregues de fato, em relação ao planejado ‣ Complexidade planejada: 26 pontos ‣ Complexidade entregue: 27 pontos (time entregou mais do que o planejado) ‣ Taxa de sucesso: (26/27)*100 = 104% Ref: TBD - http://macaubas.com/ Sunday, September 9, 12 56
  • 56. Tamanho médio - na prática Tamanho média das histórias 6 5.6 250% 4.9 5 200% 4.0 4 3.3 3.2 150% 104% 107% 100% 2 100% 77% 69% 1 50% 0 0% 1 2 3 4 5 Complexidade Media Taxa de sucesso Ref: http://macaubas.com/agile/backlog-ready Sunday, September 9, 12 57
  • 58. Sprint risk forecasting ‣ É possível prever o resultado do sprint (taxa de sucesso) baseado em dados históricos! ‣ Regressão linear simples (least square estimates), ‣ Entrada = complexidade média das histórias do sprint atual. ‣ Entrada = histórico de compl. média & taxa de sucesso ‣ Saída = forecast da taxa de sucesso do sprint que está começando Ref: TBD - http://macaubas.com/ Sunday, September 9, 12 60
  • 59. Sprint risk forecasting Sprints 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Compl. planejada 20 32 16 17 37 30 36 40 47 50 34 51 19 21 45 24 40 41 Compl. entregue 50 43 9 32 29 35 31 40 53 62 46 46 20 24 45 34 42 47 Qtd planejado 4 9 6 5 12 8 9 8 14 17 10 16 9 10 20 10 14 14 Qtd entregue 20 17 6 13 13 13 8 9 17 22 14 17 10 13 21 15 15 18 Complexidade 1.00 1.88 2.67 1.31 2.85 2.31 4.50 4.44 2.76 2.27 2.43 3.00 1.90 1.62 2.14 1.60 2.67 2.28 Media Taxa de sucesso 250% 134% 56% 188% 78% 117% 86% 100% 113% 124% 135% 90% 105% 114% 100% 142% 105% 115% 19o Sprint: Taxa de sucesso prevista: Complexidade planejada: 48 102% Quantidade de histórias: 16 Complexidade média: 3 Ref: TBD - http://macaubas.com/ Sunday, September 9, 12 61
  • 62. Sprint risk forecasting in action Taxa de sucesso prevista Nível de risco maior ou igual a 95% Baixo entre 95% e 80% Médio entre 80% e 70% Alto menor que 70% Fujam para as colinas! Ref: TBD - http://macaubas.com/ Sunday, September 9, 12 64
  • 63. Sprint risk forecasting ‣ Massa de dados: ‣ Coleta em 2 times por 18 sprints (G1 e Ego) ‣ Coleta em 3 times por 9 sprints, e contando (Webmedia) Ref: TBD - http://macaubas.com/ Sunday, September 9, 12 65
  • 65. globo Crie tendência, .com venha construir o futuro da internet. AGILE SCRUM Venha trabalhar PYTHON DJANGO com a gente RUBY ON RAILS JAVA JAVASCRIPT HTML5 Você cria, 45 milhões CSS usam diariamente LINUX MYSQL OPEN-SOURCE Vagas para desenvolvedores, SMs e POs globo.com/talentos Aceitamos candidatos de qualquer região do Brasil. Sunday, September 9, 12 67
  • 66. Igor Macaúbas http://about.me/macaubas @igor Sunday, September 9, 12 68
  • 67. Crédito das imagens aos seus criadores! ‣ http://www.flickr.com/photos/woodlouse/3984461581/ - numbers.jpg ‣ http://www.flickr.com/photos/pointshoot/2512909030/ - demolition.jpg ‣ http://www.flickr.com/photos/drift-words/10434156/ - gantt-chart.jpg ‣ http://www.flickr.com/photos/jasonpier/3546243380/ - soldiers.jpg ‣ http://www.flickr.com/photos/wonderlane/2748985530/ - want-change.jpg ‣ http://www.flickr.com/photos/londonmatt/3163571645/ - change-alley.jpg ‣ http://www.flickr.com/photos/nickelmedia/5379533031/ - native-american.jpg ‣ http://www.flickr.com/photos/firewall/4639732980 - lake-with-rocks.jpg ‣ http://www.flickr.com/photos/katska/5499031880/ - card-sorting.jpg ‣ http://www.flickr.com/photos/atelier_tee/2485049294/ - pillars.jpg ‣ http://www.flickr.com/photos/alper/5222966685/ - strategic-planning.jpg ‣ http://www.flickr.com/photos/37996583811@N01/5716819528/ - electronic heart Sunday, September 9, 12 69