Preparing for Workforce Success in Oregon’s Current Economic Climate<br />Presented by:<br />Gail Krumenauer<br />February...
Overview: Preparing for Workforce Success<br />Knowing where we are: still in a difficult economic climate<br />An educate...
The Recession is Over?<br />Defining A Recession<br />To a Household or Individual<br />Employment and Income<br />Persona...
Visually, you would expect a recovery period to look about exactly opposite of this.<br />
Nationally we see growth in our Gross Domestic Product (GDP)<br />
Portland at the lower-end of Metro area recovery<br />Source: Brookings Institute<br />
We have seen some positive employment growth in recent months…<br />
…but the effects of recession will last for years.<br />
Where We’re Heading: Short- and Long-term  Employment Growth<br />
Vacancies: Fall 2010 Survey ResultsTotal vacancies statewide = 30,652<br />
Over half of vacancies 60+ days in professional and business services or health care<br />
Help-Wanted OnLine Ads Rebounding<br />
Future Hiring: One-third of employers expect to hire, mostly for turnover openings<br />
For 2011: Job Growth Projected in Most Industries<br />
2011 Hiring Forecast* in a Variety of Occupations<br />*Employment Department estimates based on OEA forecast. <br />
Long-term Projections<br />More than 430,000 openings from 2008 to 2018 to replace current workers as they …<br />change o...
What do we mean by “total job openings?”<br />In the context of these projections, we mean:<br />Growth openings – net gai...
Services industries will add many jobs, especially health care services<br />
Manufacturing industries are expected to see the greatest losses<br />
Projected job growth also varies by region<br />
All occupational groups are projected to add jobs…<br />Important Notes<br />Relatively low-wage occupations add the most ...
…and many projected openings will be high wage…<br />
…but pay varies widely by occupational group.<br />
Service and administrative support openings no longer top the list, once we focus only on high-wage, high-demand jobs. <br />
“Usual Suspects” List of Occupations<br />
Factors that Enhance Competitiveness for Job Openings<br />
Education Pays!<br />
Higher education also associated with lower unemployment rates.<br />
Postsecondary training will only continue to be increasingly more important.<br />
Two-thirds of job openings in high-demand occupations paying at least $50,000 per year require some postsecondary training...
… and 95%of the “above $50,000” high-demand jobs desire post-secondary training if you want to be competitive.<br />* Due ...
We’ve updated Oregon’s high-wage, high-demand occupations lists.<br />The statewide list…<br />… includes 222 occupations ...
Need skills that employers want, in addition to education requirements.<br />
The ability to work across generations is essential<br />Gen Y<br />Gen X<br />vs.<br />Boomers<br />
Same Workplace, Different Perspectives<br />Gen Y<br />Boomers<br />Gen X<br />WHY do I need to learn this?<br />Tell me H...
Resources Available at QualityInfo.org<br />
Occupational Information Center<br />Detailed info on more than 700 occupations!<br />Current job openings<br />Employment...
Educational Information Center<br />Program reports with training in your area!<br />Institutions<br />Number of Graduates...
High-Wage, High-Demand jobs on the Web<br />To view all the High-Wage, High-Demand, and High-Skill jobs:<br />Go to www.Qu...
The Take Home Messages<br />The effects of “The Great Recession” (2007-2009) will continue to impact the workforce for yea...
For the latest Workforce & Economic Research news:www.QualityInfo.orgwww.OregonEmployment.Blogspot.comwww.twitter.com/OrEm...
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020111 marylhurst workforce success

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Gail Krumenauer, an economist with the Oregon Workforce and Economic Research Division present new labor market information to Marylhurst University students and alumni at a Workforce 21 event on February 1, 2011.

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020111 marylhurst workforce success

  1. 1. Preparing for Workforce Success in Oregon’s Current Economic Climate<br />Presented by:<br />Gail Krumenauer<br />February 1, 2011<br />
  2. 2. Overview: Preparing for Workforce Success<br />Knowing where we are: still in a difficult economic climate<br />An educated guess of where we’re going:<br />Short-term forecasts and expectations<br />Occupational projections 2008-2018, and where we expect growth<br />Factors that enhance competitiveness in the labor market<br />Useful tools along the way:resources at QualityInfo.org<br />
  3. 3. The Recession is Over?<br />Defining A Recession<br />To a Household or Individual<br />Employment and Income<br />Personal and Community<br /> Across the U.S. Economy<br />Decline or Growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP)<br />
  4. 4. Visually, you would expect a recovery period to look about exactly opposite of this.<br />
  5. 5. Nationally we see growth in our Gross Domestic Product (GDP)<br />
  6. 6. Portland at the lower-end of Metro area recovery<br />Source: Brookings Institute<br />
  7. 7. We have seen some positive employment growth in recent months…<br />
  8. 8. …but the effects of recession will last for years.<br />
  9. 9. Where We’re Heading: Short- and Long-term Employment Growth<br />
  10. 10. Vacancies: Fall 2010 Survey ResultsTotal vacancies statewide = 30,652<br />
  11. 11. Over half of vacancies 60+ days in professional and business services or health care<br />
  12. 12. Help-Wanted OnLine Ads Rebounding<br />
  13. 13. Future Hiring: One-third of employers expect to hire, mostly for turnover openings<br />
  14. 14. For 2011: Job Growth Projected in Most Industries<br />
  15. 15. 2011 Hiring Forecast* in a Variety of Occupations<br />*Employment Department estimates based on OEA forecast. <br />
  16. 16. Long-term Projections<br />More than 430,000 openings from 2008 to 2018 to replace current workers as they …<br />change occupations early in their careers,<br />or retire – baby boomers are nearing retirement<br />Add to this the more than 160,000 openings due to economic growth, and we expect …<br />about 600,000 total occupational openings*<br />*This doesn’t include job openings due to people changing jobs but not their occupations.<br />
  17. 17. What do we mean by “total job openings?”<br />In the context of these projections, we mean:<br />Growth openings – net gains from more firms being created or growing that firms going out of business or declining<br />PLUS<br />Replacement openings – caused by individuals permanently leaving occupations due to retirement, death, disability, or occupational transfer.<br />In addition to the above, there are many – perhaps a million each year – turnover openings. These create opportunities for individuals and headaches for businesses, but do not represent “need” in terms of education/workforce planning.<br />
  18. 18. Services industries will add many jobs, especially health care services<br />
  19. 19. Manufacturing industries are expected to see the greatest losses<br />
  20. 20. Projected job growth also varies by region<br />
  21. 21. All occupational groups are projected to add jobs…<br />Important Notes<br />Relatively low-wage occupations add the most jobs.<br />Professional and health care significantly contribute to high-wage job growth.<br />
  22. 22. …and many projected openings will be high wage…<br />
  23. 23. …but pay varies widely by occupational group.<br />
  24. 24. Service and administrative support openings no longer top the list, once we focus only on high-wage, high-demand jobs. <br />
  25. 25. “Usual Suspects” List of Occupations<br />
  26. 26. Factors that Enhance Competitiveness for Job Openings<br />
  27. 27. Education Pays!<br />
  28. 28. Higher education also associated with lower unemployment rates.<br />
  29. 29. Postsecondary training will only continue to be increasingly more important.<br />
  30. 30. Two-thirds of job openings in high-demand occupations paying at least $50,000 per year require some postsecondary training … <br />* Due to growth and replacement.<br />
  31. 31. … and 95%of the “above $50,000” high-demand jobs desire post-secondary training if you want to be competitive.<br />* Due to growth and replacement.<br />
  32. 32. We’ve updated Oregon’s high-wage, high-demand occupations lists.<br />The statewide list…<br />… includes 222 occupations (out of more than 700 total)<br />… accounts for over 230,000 of the 600,000 projected total openings between 2008 and 2018<br />… includes occupations that pay at least $15.97 median hourly wages<br />
  33. 33. Need skills that employers want, in addition to education requirements.<br />
  34. 34. The ability to work across generations is essential<br />Gen Y<br />Gen X<br />vs.<br />Boomers<br />
  35. 35. Same Workplace, Different Perspectives<br />Gen Y<br />Boomers<br />Gen X<br />WHY do I need to learn this?<br />Tell me HOW to do it<br />School and Training<br />Tell me WHAT to do<br />Defining Issues<br />Watergate, <br />Iran (Contra and Hostages)<br />JFK Assassination, Civil Rights<br />Sept. 11, 2001, “Great Recession”<br />Masters<br />Comfortable<br />Challenged<br />Technology<br />DEMAND<br />Accept<br />Dislike<br />Change<br />
  36. 36. Resources Available at QualityInfo.org<br />
  37. 37. Occupational Information Center<br />Detailed info on more than 700 occupations!<br />Current job openings<br />Employment projections<br />Wages<br />Industries of employment<br />Training providers<br />
  38. 38. Educational Information Center<br />Program reports with training in your area!<br />Institutions<br />Number of Graduates <br />Relevant Occupations<br />Employment Projections<br />
  39. 39. High-Wage, High-Demand jobs on the Web<br />To view all the High-Wage, High-Demand, and High-Skill jobs:<br />Go to www.QualityInfo.org<br />Click On Occupation Explorer under Tools<br />At the bottom of the page, click on <br />High Demand, High Skill, High Wage Occupations<br />
  40. 40. The Take Home Messages<br />The effects of “The Great Recession” (2007-2009) will continue to impact the workforce for years.<br />Vacancies and hiring are occurring! We expect modest employment growth through 2011, and roughly 9 percent statewide between 2008 and 2018.<br />Even those occupations that aren’t growing will need new workers, to replace those who leave. Replacement openings will outnumber growth openings by roughly 2:1.<br />The majority of high-wage and high-demand jobs require postsecondary education, especially in this competitive job market<br />
  41. 41. For the latest Workforce & Economic Research news:www.QualityInfo.orgwww.OregonEmployment.Blogspot.comwww.twitter.com/OrEmployment <br />Gail Krumenauer, Economist<br />Oregon Employment Department<br />Gail.K.Krumenauer@state.or.us<br />(503) 947-1274<br />

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