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Gil Zilberfeld. Better Estimation and Planning.

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Gil Zilberfeld. Better Estimation and Planning.

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Gil Zilberfeld. Better Estimation and Planning.

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Gil Zilberfeld. Better Estimation and Planning.

Ukraine Online PMDay Conference - http://online.pmday.org
Part of Kyiv PMDay Conference - http://pmday.org

Video at https://www.youtube.com/user/StartupLviv

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Gil Zilberfeld. Better Estimation and Planning.

  1. 1. @gil_zilberfeld@gil_zilberfeld Better Estimation and Planning
  2. 2. @gil_zilberfeld Hello! I AM GIL ZILBERFELD TestinGil www.gilzilberfeld.com www.testingil.com @gil_zilberfeld
  3. 3. @gil_zilberfeld “Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.” Niels Bohr, Nobel Prize in Physics
  4. 4. @gil_zilberfeld “It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law” Douglas Hofstadter Professor of cognitive science
  5. 5. @gil_zilberfeld
  6. 6. @gil_zilberfeld@gil_zilberfeld Story Points
  7. 7. @gil_zilberfeld I am not sure I invented story points, but if I did, I’m sorry now. Ron Jeffries
  8. 8. @gil_zilberfeld Story points ◉ Everybody knows the “algorithm” ◉ The business talks in dates ◉ We want to encourage ubiquitous language and openness ◉ Just use time measurements
  9. 9. @gil_zilberfeld@gil_zilberfeld Planning Poker
  10. 10. @gil_zilberfeld https://www.amazon.com/Agile-Stationery-Estimation-Poker-players/dp/B01MDTJDST
  11. 11. @gil_zilberfeld Planning Poker ◉ Fibonacci numbers ◉ Full story estimation ◉ Promote discussion through variation ◉ All the team and just the team ◉ No HIPPOs
  12. 12. @gil_zilberfeld
  13. 13. @gil_zilberfeld Planning Poker ◉ Process that requires practice ◉ Make it quick or find another way ◉ Discuss the “why” behind variation
  14. 14. @gil_zilberfeld
  15. 15. @gil_zilberfeld@gil_zilberfeld Consensus is not that important
  16. 16. @gil_zilberfeld Comparative estimations ◉ We’re optimistic and want to please ◉ We don’t remember what it took last time ◉ We don’t remember how it looked last time ◉ We don’t foresee what will happen ◉ Our estimates suck
  17. 17. @gil_zilberfeld@gil_zilberfeld What is a good estimate?
  18. 18. @gil_zilberfeld The primary purpose of an estimate is not to predict a project’s outcome. Steve McConnell, Software Estimation (2006) It is to determine whether a project’s targets are realistic enough to allow the project to be controlled to meet them.
  19. 19. @gil_zilberfeld@gil_zilberfeld How confident are you with your estimates?
  20. 20. @gil_zilberfeld Liz Keogh’s Complexity Scale 1. We all know how to do it 2. Someone on our team has done this before 3. Someone in our company has done this before 4. Someone has done this outside our organization 5. Nobody has done this before. https://lizkeogh.com/2013/07/21/estimating-complexity/
  21. 21. @gil_zilberfeld
  22. 22. @gil_zilberfeld Velocity is a measure of the amount of work a team can tackle during a single sprint https://www.scruminc.com/velocity/
  23. 23. @gil_zilberfeld
  24. 24. @gil_zilberfeld But stories are not the same size! ◉ Make them the same size! ◉ If all stories / tasks are the same it’s easy to count ◉ Count same-size stories over time, that is your velocity ◉ Then estimation goes away!
  25. 25. @gil_zilberfeld “When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure.” Goodheart’s Law
  26. 26. @gil_zilberfeld
  27. 27. @gil_zilberfeld Projection over estimation ◉ Projection is what we think our progress would be, based on the recorded past. ◉ We can be more statistically “accurate” ◉ But it only works if people understand statistics
  28. 28. @gil_zilberfeld Monte-Carlo simulation ◉ Based on small sample size, create projections in different confidence levels ◉ The sample need relevance into the projected future
  29. 29. @gil_zilberfeld Demo: Monte Carlo Simulation ◉ Demo ◉ Troy Magennis’ tools ◉ You need relevant data ◉ You need people who understand probabilities
  30. 30. @gil_zilberfeld “Done” ◉ You can have different “done”-s ◉ Have a common definition before you start ◉ Measure the important “done”. ◉ Stories, not tasks ◉ Demos
  31. 31. @gil_zilberfeld User Story Mapping - Examples https://realtimeboard.com/examples/user-story-map/
  32. 32. @gil_zilberfeld
  33. 33. @gil_zilberfeld Lead time and Cycle time https://www.minterapp.com/takt-time-vs-cycle-time-vs-lead-time/
  34. 34. @gil_zilberfeld Cumulative Flow Diagram https://kanbanize.com/kanban-resources/kanban-software/kanban-lead-cycle-time/
  35. 35. @gil_zilberfeld Leading indicators examples ◉ Blockers ◉ Velocity ◉ Morale ◉ Closing rate ◉ Backlog ready ◉ Team structure ◉ Demos ◉ Cadence ◉ Historic lead and cycle time
  36. 36. @gil_zilberfeld Resources ◉ The Principles of Product Development Flow by Don Reinertsen ◉ Cost of Delay ◉ The Story Mapping book by Jeff Patton ◉ The Personal Kanban book by Jim Benson ◉ Statistical Planning Tools
  37. 37. @gil_zilberfeld Thanks! ANY QUESTIONS? TestinGil @gil_zilberfeld http://www.testingil.com/online-courses

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