NUCLEAR ENERGY SECTOR IMPACT TO SOCIO–ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

1. NUCLEAR ENERGY SECTOR IMPACT TO SOCIO–ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT dr. Luka Štrubelj GEN energija 15.-16. November 2012

2. Outline
•Slovenia
•Current socio-economic status in Slovenia
•Future socio-economic development in Slovenia
•European Union
•Current socio-economic status in EU
•Future socio-economic status in EU
•Worldwide data
•Conclusions

3. Socio-economic impact of nuclear energy sector
•Direct jobs (NPP, design, manufacturing ie. turbine, RPV)
•Indirect jobs (upstream or downstream suppliers, ie. suppliers of steel)
•Induced jobs (in general economy, grocery store clerks, teachers, doctors, …)
•Development of region
•National level: increased GDP

4. Slovenia – existing NPP
One nuclear power plant – NEK
•Net power: 696 MWe (40% of the total electricity produced)
•Co-owned by Slovenia (GEN energija) and Croatia (HEP)
•Employment of 620 people
•2000 indirect jobs
•Increased GDP by 61 million EUR*
•Added value: 66 million EUR (110.000 EUR per employee)*
•Well paid jobs: 80% above Slovenian average
•Increased housing by 1000 apartments and 700 residental houses in years 1971-1981**
•Increased sport, culture and touristic offer
•The education level and technological development increased
•Increased number of population in the region
•Induced development of region
* reference: Valvazorjev raziskovalni center, Analiza dobrih praks pri gradnji jedrskih elektrarn, April 2011
** reference: KIN.PS, Analiza ekonomskih in socioloških razvojnih vplivov jedrskih objektov na lokalno skupnost Krško in regionalni prostor Posavja,2008

5. Slovenia – existing NPP
Population in municipality
reference: SURS
NEK construction 1975- 1983
Independence of Slovenija
Decision to build NEK 1970

6. Slovenia - development
•One nuclear power plant NEK in operation, second unit – JEK2 is planned
•Net power 1000-1600 MWe, all available PWR technologies

7. Slovenia - development
During construction (5 years)*
•Increased GDP from 500 million EUR (1,7 % - option with smaller 1000 MW unit) or nearly 680 million EUR (2,2 % - option with larger 1600 MW unit)
•Direct, and especially an indirect engagement of approximately 20.000 or 27.000 employees
•4 – 5 million EUR of additional expenses for research and development activities
•The general government revenue will increase for almost 190 or 260 million EUR
•Contracts with domestic construction companies
•Use of accommodation facilities
•Additional consumption
* reference: Macroeconomic effects of the Krško 2 NPP construction and operation, Ekonomski institute pravne fakultete, May 2008

8. Slovenia - development
During operation (60 years)*
•GDP increase for 100 million EUR (0,3 % - 1000 MW unit) or 150 million EUR (0,5 % - 1600 MW unit) at a yearly level
•Direct, and especially an indirect engagement of approximately 3.000 or 4.800 employees at a yearly level
•0,9 or 1,4 million EUR of additional expenses for research and development activities
•The inflow of general government revenues will increase for 30 or 50 million EUR
•Employment of 400 people (training, scholarships, consumption)
•Increase of population (new schools, social infrastructure)
•New enterprises, business zones, new jobs in tourism and agriculture
•Development of infrastructure: roads, municipal infrastructure, telecommunications, housing
* reference: Macroeconomic effects of the Krško 2 NPP construction and operation, Ekonomski institute pravne fakultete, May 2008

9. EU - status
•132 NPPs in operation
•250,000 direct jobs*
•250,000 indirect jobs*
•Nearly 400,000 induced jobs
•Estimated added value of 55 – 70 billion EUR per year
* reference: Foratom, The socio-economic benefits of nuclear energy, 2010
EU 27

10. EU - development
Stress tests
•10.000 direct and indirect jobs*
•10 billion EUR investment until 2020* (75 million per NPP)
* reference: Jean-Pol Poncelet, director-general of the Foratom , Fukushima- Daiichi Consequences ‘Will Not Affect’ Nuclear Operation

11. EU - development
Long term operation – LTO (Lifetime extension)
•100 NPPs (except Belgium, Germany and United Kingdom)*
•Life time extension from 40 up to 50 or 60 years*
•90 billion EUR investment in next 20 years* (900 mio. per NPP)
•30.000 direct and indirect jobs* (300 per NPP)
•reference:Jean-Pol Poncelet, director-general of the Foratom , Fukushima- Daiichi Consequences ‘Will Not Affect’ Nuclear Operation
Age of existing NPP

12. EU - development
Decommissioning and waste management
•Annual investment of 3-5 billion EUR*
•30.000 direct and indirect jobs *
* reference:Jean-Pol Poncelet, director-general of the Foratom , Fukushima- Daiichi Consequences ‘Will Not Affect’ Nuclear Operation
www.arao.si

13. EU - development
New built
•100 new NPPs until 2050 according to Delayed CCS scenario of the EU energy roadmap 2050, that corresponds 140 GWe between 2025 and 2045 (post Fukushima)*
–EU energy roadmap 2050, pre Fukushima 180 GW
–Eurelectric projection up to 198 GW
–IAEA projection from 134 up to 294 GW (including non-member states)
•500 billion EUR investment until 2050 (5 billion per NPP)
•250.000 new direct and indirect jobs in supply chain and construction
* reference: European commission, Energy roadmap 2050, 2012
TVO, Olikuoto 3

14. EU - development
How many nuclear power plants could operate?
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0
20.000
40.000
60.000
80.000
100.000
120.000
140.000
160.000
2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 2048
Number of reactors
Instaled power (MW)
Year
No LTO
LTO 50 a
LTO 60 a
New built
27 % reduction in nuclear share of electricity production 20 %
No LTO for Great Britain, Belgium and Germany is included. Construction of 4 NPPs according to the plan is
included in all options.

15. EU - development
How many jobs (direct and indirect) could be available?
Existing 500,000 direct and indirect jobs Total 1,450,000 jobs, including induced

16. EU – development - projects
•In the UK the 10 new plants that will be built will provide around 9,000 highly-skilled jobs and a further 7,000 supply chain and local service jobs
•In France EDF will hire 400 engineers for the UK new build market over the next 5 years. During the five-year construction period of the EPR reactor at Flamanville, in France, a total of up to 2,300 people will have worked on-site. Once built, the EPRs at Flamanville and Penly (also France) will create 800 new operational jobs - 300 permanent ones and 100 supply chain jobs per plant.
•In Finland, 4,000 people will have been employed during the construction phase of Olkiluoto 3. Once operational, it will create 300 new jobs.
•In Sweden, the construction of the underground waste repository at Forsmark will create around 400 jobs and provide added economic stimulus to the region.
* reference: Foratom, The socio-economic benefits of nuclear energy, 2010

17. Worldwide data
•NPP in operation: 437; 372 GWe
•NPP in construction: 64
•Projection 2020: 421-508 GWe*
•Projection 2030: 456-740 GWe*
•Projection 2050: 469-1137 GWe*
* reference: IAEA, Energy, electricity and nuclear power estimates for the period up to 2050

18. Development of nuclear countries
Gapminder.org
TOE

19. Development of nuclear countries
Gapminder.org
TOE

20. GDP vs. nuclear power generation
Gapminder.org
TOE

21. GDP vs. nuclear power generation
Gapminder.org
TOE

22. Conclusions
Nuclear energy = job opportunities
Nuclear energy = business opportunities
Nuclear energy = development of region/country

23. References
[1] IBE, Pre-feasibility study JEK 2, March 2011
[2] Macroeconomic effects of the Krško 2 NPP construction and operation, Ekonomski institiut pravne fakultete, May 2008
[3] IAEA, The database on nuclear power reactors (http://www.iaea.org/pris/), August 2012
[4] OECD NEA, The role of nuclear energy in a low-carbon energy future, 2012
[5] European commission, Energy roadmap 2050, 2012
[6] Nuctnet news, Fukushima-Daiichi Consequences ‘Will Not Affect’ Nuclear Operation, http://www.nucnet.org/all-the-news/2012/08/07/fukushima- daiichi-consequences-will-not-affect-nuclear-operation, August 2012
[7] Eurelectric, Power Coices: Pathways to carbon-neutral electricity in Europe by 2050, 2010
Thank you for your attention!