Keynote delivered on behalf of Cary Fowler at international conference on Food Security and Climate Change in Dry Areas -- 1-4 February 2010 -- Amman, Jordan. Thanks to Colin Khoury for putting this together.

1. Adapting to climate change: The importance of ex situ conservation of crop genetic diversity Luigi Guarino Global Crop Diversity Trust Rome, Italy http:// croptrust.org

3. Change in Water Availability under climate change, population growth and industrialization 1961-1990 Source: BBC, Tuesday, 8 December 2009. The key effects of climate change. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7821082.stm

4. Change in Water Availability under climate change, population growth and industrialization 2070s Source: BBC, Tuesday, 8 December 2009. The key effects of climate change. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7821082.stm

5. Likelihood (in percent) that the summer average temperature in 2050 will exceed the highest summer temperature ever observed (1900-2006). Source: Battisti, D.S., and R.L. Naylor. 2009. Historical warnings of future food insecurity with unprecedented seasonal heat. Science , 323, 240-244. Change in Temperature

6. Likelihood (in percent) that the summer average temperature in 2090 will exceed the highest summer temperature ever observed (1900-2006). Source: Battisti, D.S., and R.L. Naylor. 2009. Historical warnings of future food insecurity with unprecedented seasonal heat. Science , 323, 240-244. Change in Temperature

7. Distributions of average (summer) temperature for 20th century (blue), and climate model projections for 2080-2100 (red) (y=number of summers, x=departure from long-term 20th century mean) Source: Battisti, D.S., and R.L. Naylor. 2009. Historical warnings of future food insecurity with unprecedented seasonal heat. Science , 323, 240-244. Change in Temperature

8. Climate Change and Crop Adaptation Source: Burke, M.B., et al., Shifts in African crop climates by 2050, and the implications for crop improvement and genetic resources conservation. Global Environ. Change (2009), doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2009.04.003 Percentage overlap between historical and 2025 (left), 2050 (middle), and 2075 (right) simulated growing season average temperature at over African maize area. Dark blue colors represent 100% overlap between past and future climates, dark red colors represent 0% overlap

9. Overlap of Future Temperatures with Present average growing season temperatures, Sub-Saharan Africa Percent Source: Burke, M.B., et al., Shifts in African crop climates by 2050, and the implications for crop improvement and genetic resources conservation. Global Environ. Change (2009), doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2009.04.003

10. Sources of Cereal Production Growth (2000-50) EAP: East Asia and the Pacific; MENA: Middle East and North Africa; LAC: Latin America and the Caribbean; SSA: Sub-Saharan Africa Source: Hubert et al . 2010. The Future of Food: Scenarios for 2050. Crop Sci 50.

11. 6 Components of Increasing Food Supplies Source: adapted from Evans L.T. 2000. Feeding the Ten Billion: Plants and Population Growth. Cambridge University Press Crop diversity needed for breeding Crop diversity indirectly needed Increase area of land under cultivation Reduce use of grains fed to animals Reduce post-harvest losses Replace lower yielding crops with higher yielding ones Increase yield on existing lands, per crop Increase number of crops grown on the land (e.g. shorter season crops)

13. Impacts of Climate Change on CWRs Arachis (peanut, groundnut) Current 2055 Source: Jarvis, A., Ferguson, M., Williams, D., Guarino, L., Jones, P., Stalker, H., Valls, J., Pittman, R., Simpson, C. & Bramel, P. 2003. Biogeography of Wild Arachis: Assessing Conservation Status and Setting Future Priorities. Crop Science 43, 1100-1108.

14. Impacts of Climate Change on CWRs Source: Jarvis A., Ramirez J., Zapata E., and Guevara E. 2008. Use of GBIF data for conserving and adapting agricultural biodiversity in the face of climate change. Powerpoint Presentation.

15. Impacts of Climate Change on CWRs Source: Jarvis A. 2009. personal communication.

18. Source: adapted from Palacios XF. 1998. Contribution to the Estimation of Countries’ Interdependence in the Area of Plant Genetic Resources. Rep. 7, Rev. 1, UN Food. Agric. Org. Comm. Genet. Resour. Food Agric., Rome, Italy. taken from Fowler C. and Hodgkin T. 2004. Plant Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture: Assessing Global Availability. Annu Rev Environ Resour 29: 10.1-10.37. Global interdependence Food Energy Supply (calories/day) = % genetic resources of crops not indigenous to country = % genetic resources of crops indigenous to country

19. Global Interdependence: “Veery” Wheat Source: Payne T. 2009. International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center. personal communication Country sources - 49 landraces and 66 cultivars from 20 countries

20. Global Interdependence: “Veery” Wheat Countries of release - 160 cultivars in 35 countries Source: Payne T. 2009. International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center. personal communication; Rajaram S. 2009. personal communication.

21. Climate Change and Crop Adaptation Source: Burke, M.B., et al., Shifts in African crop climates by 2050, and the implications for crop improvement and genetic resources conservation. Global Environ. Change (2009), doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2009.04.003

22. % of World Ex Situ Collection Source: Wiews 2009 Countries Cassava Maize Potato Sweet Potato Wheat Brazil 18 3 0 5 4 China 0 6 0 4 5 India 8 2 5 0.1 8 Philippines 0.2 1 0 1 0 USA 0.3 8 4 4 7

23. Conservation Use Svalbard Global Seed Vault Safety backup Long term storage: CG Centres, regional organizations Active national etc. collections Breeding/working collections Farmers

26. Photo: Global Crop Diversity Trust; Stattsbygg

27. Photo: Mari Tefre; Global Crop Diversity Trust

29. Genebank Data Management Software Source: USDA-ARS. 2009. GRIN-Global_manual_v1-022409.pdf

31. Source: Bioversity International 2009. http://www.global-alis.org / Global Portal for Accession-level Information

32. Smart Collecting Strategies Threat assessment: use climate change models to determine vulnerability of populations Rare traits: compare distribution with environmental factors Areas of species richness not previously sampled Source: Jarvis A. 2008. Protocol for Gap Analysis in Wild Species. Draft Report for the Global Crop Diversity Trust.

33. Endowing a Global System for a Crop

35. The Global Crop Diversity Trust “providing a permanent source of funds to support the long-term conservation of the ex-situ germplasm on which the world depends for food security”