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Climate change: last call?

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climate KIC
Pioneers Into Practice International Workshop
Bologna, 13th October 2015
ASTER Bologna - AESS Modena

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Climate change: last call?

  1. 1. Pioneers Into Practice International Workshop Bologna, 13th October 2015 Climate change: last call 1 Luca Lombroso www.lombroso.it
  2. 2. Pioneers Into Practice International Workshop Bologna, 13th October 2015 Speaker Profile Luca Lombroso 2 Luca Lombroso I’m a weather forecaster and broadcaster, climate change expert, writer. I’m also technologist at Osservatorio Geofisico DIEF UNIMORE. I’ve a long operational forecast experience and many scientific papers on weather and climate science. I wrote some books, the last “Apocalypse Now? clima ambiente cataclismi”, Artestampa edition, award “Penna d’autore” and “Contropremio Carver”. I received also the “Bosco per Kyoto” award. I’ve been delegate, as observer, on some of the last climate summit (COP) starting from Copenhagen 2009 (COP 15). I eat organic food, I produce my energy by PV, I’ve a ibrid car but I go to work usually by bike. web site: www.lombroso.it email: luca@lombroso.it facebook.com/lombrosoluca twitter @lucalombroso
  3. 3. Pioneers Into Practice International Workshop Bologna, 13th October 2015 The climate system 3 climate is a common good, belonging to all and meant for all.
  4. 4. But greenhouse grases from human activity induce a “enanched greenhouse effect” H2O CO2 CH4 Greenhouse effect is a natural phenomenon
  5. 5. Pioneers Into Practice International Workshop Bologna, 13th October 2015 IPCC keywords timeline 5 A very solid scientific consensus indicates that we are presently witness- ing a disturbing warming of the climatic system. 1990: doubt and evidence of global warming 1995: distinguible human influence on climate 2001: is likely (60%) that global warming is mainly due tu human activities 2007: global warming is unequivocal and primarily human-induced 2014: it is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause
  6. 6. Pioneers Into Practice International Workshop Bologna, 13th October 2015 Modena warming: 6 Modena: July warmed month, Summer 2015: 3° hottest
  7. 7. Pioneers Into Practice International Workshop Bologna, 13th October 2015 7 Italy warming:
  8. 8. Pioneers Into Practice International Workshop Bologna, 13th October 2015 8 Europe warming:
  9. 9. Pioneers Into Practice International Workshop Bologna, 13th October 2015 9 global warming:
  10. 10. Pioneers Into Practice International Workshop Bologna, 13th October 2015 10 today warming:
  11. 11. Pioneers Into Practice International Workshop Bologna, 13th October 2015 11
  12. 12. Pioneers Into Practice International Workshop Bologna, 13th October 2015 12
  13. 13. Pioneers Into Practice International Workshop Bologna, 13th October 2015 one day we call “cool” the worst and hottest summer 13
  14. 14. Pioneers Into Practice International Workshop Bologna, 13th October 2015 Global warming: Emma’s video https://youtu.be/dX11HDjiMg4 14
  15. 15. Pioneers Into Practice International Workshop Bologna, 13th October 2015 Extreme weather & climate change 15 In recent decades this warming has been accom- panied by a constant rise in the sea level and, it would appear, by an increase of extreme weather events,
  16. 16. Pioneers Into Practice International Workshop Bologna, 13th October 2015 Content 16 Piacenza flood 13-14 set 2015 300 mm/ 6 h Parma flood 13-14 set 2015 200 mm/6 h Modena flood 18-19 gen 2014 307 mm/3 days Romagna flood 18-19 set 2014 150 mm/6 h main floods on Emilia Romagna in the last 2 years
  17. 17. Posti ritenuti sicuri fino a ieri non è detto lo siano in futuro o forse già oggi: NON BASTA UNA CONCESSIONE EDILIZIA
  18. 18. Pioneers Into Practice International Workshop Bologna, 13th October 2015 18 http://youtu.be/NVGGgncVq-4
  19. 19. Pioneers Into Practice International Workshop Bologna, 13th October 2015 climate change denial 19 Credit: Denial101x, Based on a work at www.skepticalscience.com J.Cook
  20. 20. Pioneers Into Practice International Workshop Bologna, 13th October 2015 example of denia: cherry picking 20
  21. 21. Pioneers Into Practice International Workshop Bologna, 13th October 2015 Sea level rise on 2100, BAU scenario Sea level rise on 2100, BAU scenario
  22. 22. Pioneers Into Practice International Workshop Bologna, 13th October 2015 Sea level rise, 2300 scenario using and burning all fossil fuel Sea level rise, 2300 scenario using and burning all fossil fuel 22 http://flood.firetree.net/
  23. 23. Pioneers Into Practice International Workshop Bologna, 13th October 2015 Consensus 23 s a number of scientific studies indicate that most global warming in recent decades is due to the great concentration of greenhouse gases Credit: Denial101x, Based on a work at www.skepticalscience.com J.Cook
  24. 24. Pioneers Into Practice International Workshop Bologna, 13th October 2015 CO2: the meeting curve 24 s
  25. 25. Pioneers Into Practice International Workshop Bologna, 13th October 2015 25 CO2 during last 800000 years
  26. 26. last “man” that breath air with CO2 over 400 ppm
  27. 27. Gli orsi polari siamo noi!we are the polar bear!
  28. 28. Rio  1992 Grossglockner  glacier  from  Rio    Earth  Summit  1992  to  Doha  COP  18  2012 Doha  2012
  29. 29. Pioneers Into Practice International Workshop Bologna, 13th October 2015 Methane isn’t a “eco fuel”! s 29 Siberia, earth on fire! http://www.crisiswhatcrisis.it/2015/04/20/in-siberia-si- incendia-il-permafrost-ed-e-strage/ The melting in the polar ice caps and in high altitude plains can lead to the dangerous release of methane gas,
  30. 30. Pioneers Into Practice International Workshop Bologna, 13th October 2015 Methane: 32 more powerful that CO2 on greenhouse effect s 30 s 1650% 1670% 1690% 1710% 1730% 1750% 1770% 1790% 1810% 1830% 1850% 1987% 1988% 1989% 1990% 1991% 1992% 1993% 1994% 1995% 1996% 1997% 1998% 1999%2000% 2001% 2002% 2003% 2004% 2005% 2006% 2007% 2008% 2009% 2010% 2011% 2012% 2013% concentrazione*in*ppb* Concentrazione*di*metano*in*atmosfera*
  31. 31. Pioneers Into Practice International Workshop Bologna, 13th October 2015 Summer 2015: ground on fire on Ferrara land s 31 Summer 2015: ground on fire on Ferrara land http://www.emiliaromagnameteo.com/incendio-da-giorni-nel-ferrarese-a-bruciare-e-torba-puzza-nei-lidi-insopportabile/
  32. 32. Pioneers Into Practice International Workshop Bologna, 13th October 2015 We have the choice! 32 s this century may well witness extraordinary climate change and an unprecedented destruction of ecosystems, with serious consequences for all of us 2 degrees 5 degrees
  33. 33. Pioneers Into Practice International Workshop Bologna, 13th October 2015 World bank: avoid a 4°C world 33 World Could Be 4 Degrees Hotter By End of This Century https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CQbOlI0YQNs
  34. 34. Nicholas Stern, Economics of climate change, 2006. “Cost of inaction could be from 5 to 20% of global PIL, cost of action will be less than 1% of PIL”, But climate change isn’t a economic problem, is a survival question!
  35. 35. Pioneers Into Practice International Workshop Bologna, 13th October 2015 Global emission trend 35 There is an urgent need to develop policies so that, in the next few years, the emission of carbon dioxide and other highly polluting gases can be drastically reduced, for example, substituting for fossil fuels
  36. 36. 1 m3 methane ->1.8 kg/CO2 1 kWh->0.4-0.9 kg/CO2 1 l gasoline->2.4 kg/CO2 1 l diesel->2.6 kg/CO2 1 kg coal -> 3.7 kg/CO2
  37. 37. Pioneers Into Practice International Workshop Bologna, 13th October 2015 37 How oil we use? each day a month a year, a family one day in Italy
  38. 38. Pioneers Into Practice International Workshop Bologna, 13th October 2015 38
  39. 39. Pioneers Into Practice International Workshop Bologna, 13th October 2015 39
  40. 40. Pioneers Into Practice International Workshop Bologna, 13th October 2015 40 “emission gap”: how to reduce emission? a Kyoto protocol each year!
  41. 41. Pioneers Into Practice International Workshop Bologna, 13th October 2015 Common but differential responsibility 41 Reducing greenhouse gases requires honesty, courage and responsibility, above all on the part of those countries which are more powerful and pollute the most.
  42. 42. Pioneers Into Practice International Workshop Bologna, 13th October 2015 toward Paris 2015 COP 21 42 The failure of global summits on the environment make it plain that our politics are subject to technology and finance.
  43. 43. Pioneers Into Practice International Workshop Bologna, 13th October 2015 43
  44. 44. if we wait the government, will be too little and too late
  45. 45. Pioneers Into Practice International Workshop Bologna, 13th October 2015 Content 45 if we act alone, it’s too little
  46. 46. Pioneers Into Practice International Workshop Bologna, 13th October 2015 Content 46 Transition town model but if we act as comunity, cold be enough and in time Each community can take from the bounty of the earth whatever it needs for subsistence, but it also has the duty to protect the earth and to ensure its fruitfulness for coming generations.
  47. 47. Pioneers Into Practice International Workshop Bologna, 13th October 2015 Content 47 Transition Training & Consulting 2010 CLIMATE CHANGE   geoengineering   CCS   emission trading   adaptation   nuclear Energy   • High/Green Tech P O + C C =Change the system   • relocalisation, reeconomy   • energy regrowth   • local resilience   • change on food   TRANSITION! peak oil   • burn all! Deregulation, drill baby drill!   • biofuel   • tar sands, fracking   • war for oil It is essential to seek comprehensive solutions which consider the interactions within natural systems themselves and with social systems.
  48. 48. sostenibility recycling organic food idraulic defense ethical finance high efficiency boiler Carbon neutral competitivity, innovation, meritocracy resilience zero west permaculture back space to river local circular economy passive house Post carbon invention, cooperation, working together
  49. 49. Pioneers Into Practice International Workshop Bologna, 13th October 2015 Rockfeller family is divest from fossil fuel 49 Some good example
  50. 50. Pioneers Into Practice International Workshop Bologna, 13th October 2015 Barack Obama (too late!?) 50 Some good example
  51. 51. Pioneers Into Practice International Workshop Bologna, 13th October 2015 51 Pope Francis Some good example
  52. 52. Pioneers Into Practice International Workshop Bologna, 13th October 2015 52 Islamit climate change declaration Some good example
  53. 53. Pioneers Into Practice International Workshop Bologna, 13th October 2015 53 Some good example
  54. 54. Pioneers Into Practice International Workshop Bologna, 13th October 2015 54 Some good example
  55. 55. Pioneers Into Practice International Workshop Bologna, 13th October 2015 55 resilient house on Philippines. after typhoone Yolanda
  56. 56. Pioneers Into Practice International Workshop Bologna, 13th October 2015 56 We know that technology based on the use of highly polluting fossil fuels – especially coal, but also oil and, to a lesser degree, gas – needs to be progressively replaced without delay.
  57. 57. Pioneers Into Practice International Workshop Bologna, 13th October 2015 Content 57 house heating house energy how travel how eat waste
  58. 58. Pioneers Into Practice International Workshop Bologna, 13th October 2015 58 my fuel (CH4) consumption
  59. 59. Pioneers Into Practice International Workshop Bologna, 13th October 2015 Content 59 #mysolarpanel #myPV 0" 100" 200" 300" 400" 500" 600" gennaio" febbraio" marzo" aprile" maggio" giugno" luglio" agosto" se9embre" o9obre" novembre" dicembre" energia'mensile'in'kWh' Produzione'e'consumo'#ilmiofotovoltaico'' Produzione" Consumo" Produzione / consumo in % energia autoconsumata % 219,4 22,9 Produzione in kWh consumo in kWh 3247,21 1479,78 1624 kg/CO2 evitata autoconsumato del consumo % 50,2
  60. 60. Pioneers Into Practice International Workshop Bologna, 13th October 2015 60 In Italy you can put your PV on apartment building roof!
  61. 61. Pioneers Into Practice International Workshop Bologna, 13th October 2015 energy profiler: your energy and consumption under control! 61
  62. 62. Pioneers Into Practice International Workshop Bologna, 13th October 2015 62
  63. 63. Pioneers Into Practice International Workshop Bologna, 13th October 2015 63 can your trolley make bad and good weather ? yes!
  64. 64. Pioneers Into Practice International Workshop Bologna, 13th October 2015 64 The emptier a person’s heart is, the more he or she needs things to buy, own and consume discount! tutto sottocosto!
  65. 65. Pioneers Into Practice International Workshop Bologna, 13th October 2015 65 Consumption and energy saving: Jevons paradox, grey energy
  66. 66. Pioneers Into Practice International Workshop Bologna, 13th October 2015 66 what does means global warming for your life?
  67. 67. Pioneers Into Practice International Workshop Bologna, 13th October 2015 67
  68. 68. left fossil fuel underground save the forest zero waste hire renewables energy
  69. 69. weather forecasting
  70. 70. Gioco delle braccia di last call a simple test cross yoyr arm look with wrist is above cross your arm again who has the same wrist above? You have a life stile that coud be easy for you but sometime the world change and you must change! cross your arm reversing wrist look, and try again You note that 1. It’s possible 2. We have to think and sometime wrong 3. it’s unconfortable, but then will be better!

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