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Digital Humanities | Pisa febbraio-aprile 2017 | Luca De Biase
2. Futuro How to be humans
in the digital age
http://blog.d...
8:30 - 10:00 10:15 - 11:45 12:00 - 13:30 14:15 - 15:45 16:00 - 17:30 17:45 - 19:15
24 febbraio x x x
2 marzo x x x
3 marzo...
DIGITAL soluzioni power law moore’s law shannon fogg & co.
infosfera
futuro
innovazione
felicità
piattaforma
conoscenza
di...
DIGITAL soluzioni power law moore’s law shannon fogg & co.
infosfera 24 febbraio
futuro 2 marzo
innovazione 3 marzo
felici...
DIGITAL soluzioni power law moore’s law shannon fogg & co.
infosfera digitalizzazione polarizzazione esponenziale algoritm...
paper
Che cosa sappiamo
Perché è importante
Che cosa possiamo fare
sync
https://mitpress.mit.edu/sites/default/files/titles/content/
9780262018470_Open_Access_Edition.pdf
Oggi e domani parliamo di:
❖ futuro
❖ innovazione
Oggi e domani parliamo di:
❖ come si organizza la conoscenza per pensare il futuro
❖ come si organizza la conoscenza per f...
Data science is an interdisciplinary and pervasive paradigm aiming to turn data into knowledge and value. Data may be
stru...
Digital Humanities | Pisa febbraio-aprile 2017 | Luca De Biase
Il futuro
“We shape our buildings;
thereafter they shape us...
per decidere ci facciamo un’idea del futuro
possiamo leggere i fatti come finestre per conoscere il futuro?
Cassie, robot bipede di Agility Robotics, spin-off dell’Oregon State University.
http://www.futurix.it/2017/02/cassie-robo...
il futuro sta cambiando
Shift happens
❖ Deep Knowledge Ventures hires Vital,
an algorithm, for the board
❖ Narrative sciences writes financial
arti...
Shift happens
❖ Digital technologies have taken
most of human information
recording
❖ The web has changed a lot of
industr...
Shift happens
❖ Big data
❖ Robotics
❖ Nanotechnology
❖ Biotechnology
❖ Neuro-science
❖ Particle physics
❖ Additive product...
A robot suitcase which
follows you is made by the
Israeli startup NUA Robotics.
It is full of sensors, computer
vision and...
Lily is a drone that follows you
whereever you go and takes pictures
or movies about everything you do
Teslasuit is a virtual reality
device for full immersion
experiences
–Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, Oxford University
“According to our estimates, about 47 percent of
total US em...
Edward Snowden revealed
what the Us mass surveillance
program is doing to the net
❖ sei un cittadino o un lavoratore preoccupato del futuro?
❖ sei interessato al futuro per migliorare i tuoi progetti?
❖ s...
come guardiamo avanti?
Le previsioni sono difficili
quando i cambiamenti sono profondi
–The Economist
“L’economia è la scienza che studia perché le sue
previsioni non si sono avverate”.
Che cosa succederà?
❖ Che cosa sappiamo di non sapere?
❖ Che cosa non sappiamo di non sapere?
Che cosa succederà?
❖ Siamo influenzati da ciò che vogliamo?
❖ Siamo influenzati da ciò che speriamo?
❖ Siamo influenzati dal...
Che cosa succederà?
❖ Abbiamo bisogno di una migliore comprensione del
futuro per migliorare i nostri progetti?
Abbiamo bisogno di un’epistemologia
❖ Fare la Domanda
❖ Cercare nel mondo
❖ Mappare le possibilità;
❖ fare la prossima Dom...
Abbiamo bisogno di un’epistemologia
❖ The Dragon - what we know that we don’t know
❖ The Black Swan - what we know doesn’t...
Abbiamo bisogno di una strategia
❖ Non c’è una possibile previsione: è possibile definire
una strategia per costruire siste...
Che cosa possiamo dire del futuro?
–Everybody knows that
“Il futuro è la conseguenza di ciò che facciamo”.
How we decide?
How we decide?
❖ Daniel Kahneman, Thinking,
Fast and Slow, Penguin, 2013
How we decide?
❖ We usually go with the first
idea that comes to our mind
❖ Reasoning is rare
❖ The first idea, intuition, c...
❖ We decide by intuition
❖ What we decide builds the future
❖ Sometimes there is reasoning, most of the times not
❖ The id...
La prima legge degli studi sul
futuro…
–Institute for the Future
“There are no facts in the future, only narratives”
Narrative
Narratives
❖ Financial
❖ Technological
❖ Ecological
Narratives
❖ This is where humanities and
techno-science collide and
generate what we are - for now
- calling: digital hum...
Narratives
Financial values
The only judge is the market value,
which in turn is defined by future ability
to make profits. ...
Narratives
Techno-progress
What works wins. There are laws in
technological progress which allow us to
understand what wil...
Narratives
Ecological stories
Everything is interconnected.
Phenomena coevolve. There is a plurality
of life forms and the...
Narratives create a perspective
❖ People need to choose and a narrative creates an idea of
what a choice will bring
❖ Stor...
–Carlo Goldoni
“I cannot write what is true,
because if I did nobody would believe me.
Thus, I write what is likely”.
Narratives need to be credible
❖ If people experience a life that is defined by a narrative,
they are brought to think that...
Future thinking readings:
❖ Al Gore, The future, WH Allen, 2013
❖ James Canton, The extreme future, Dutton, 2006
❖ Joel Ga...
Future thinking readings:
❖ Age of networked matter. http://www.iftf.org/aonm/
❖ Future visions. http://news.microsoft.com...
Future thinking readings:
❖ FUTURES THINKING: THE BASICS
❖ http://www.fastcompany.com/1362037/futures-thinking-basics
❖ FU...
Future thinking readings:
❖ Future timelinehttp://futuretimeline.net
❖ How to see into the future. http://www.ft.com/intl/...
If we think the future as narratives:
❖ We don’t know the future, we just build it, by acting
now and generating consequen...
–Tom Perrault, Harvard Business Review
“But there will be a limit to how far computers can
replace humans. What can’t be r...
It’s what happens in the info-sphere
It’s what happens in the info-sphere
❖ The info-sphere is no abstract notion: it is build of
nature, cables, platforms, in...
Corso pisa-2 dh-2017
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Corso pisa-2 dh-2017

  1. 1. Digital Humanities | Pisa febbraio-aprile 2017 | Luca De Biase 2. Futuro How to be humans in the digital age http://blog.debiase.com
  2. 2. 8:30 - 10:00 10:15 - 11:45 12:00 - 13:30 14:15 - 15:45 16:00 - 17:30 17:45 - 19:15 24 febbraio x x x 2 marzo x x x 3 marzo x x 23 marzo x x x 24 marzo x x 6 aprile x x x 7 aprile x x
  3. 3. DIGITAL soluzioni power law moore’s law shannon fogg & co. infosfera futuro innovazione felicità piattaforma conoscenza diritti HUMAN domande discernimento narrazione responsablità ricerca
  4. 4. DIGITAL soluzioni power law moore’s law shannon fogg & co. infosfera 24 febbraio futuro 2 marzo innovazione 3 marzo felicità 23 marzo piattaforma 24 marzo conoscenza 6 aprile diritti 7 aprile HUMAN domande discernimento narrazione responsablità ricerca
  5. 5. DIGITAL soluzioni power law moore’s law shannon fogg & co. infosfera digitalizzazione polarizzazione esponenziale algoritmo nicchia futuro shift pattern senso evoluzione arte & scienza innovazione immaginazione abilitazione selezione sperimentazione adozione felicità ecologia fini & mezzi ambiente relazioni cultura piattaforma interfaccia codice filtro motivazione incentivo conoscenza valore verità metodo contesto design diritti privacy accesso interoperabilità neutralità sicurezza HUMAN domande discernimento narrazione responsablità ricerca
  6. 6. paper
  7. 7. Che cosa sappiamo Perché è importante Che cosa possiamo fare
  8. 8. sync
  9. 9. https://mitpress.mit.edu/sites/default/files/titles/content/ 9780262018470_Open_Access_Edition.pdf
  10. 10. Oggi e domani parliamo di: ❖ futuro ❖ innovazione
  11. 11. Oggi e domani parliamo di: ❖ come si organizza la conoscenza per pensare il futuro ❖ come si organizza la conoscenza per fare innovazione
  12. 12. Data science is an interdisciplinary and pervasive paradigm aiming to turn data into knowledge and value. Data may be structured or unstructured, big or small, static or streaming. Knowledge and value may be provided in the form of predictions, automated decisions, models learned from data, or any type of data visualization delivering insights. Data science includes data extraction, data preparation, data exploration, data transformation, storage and retrieval, computing infrastructures, various types of data mining and statistical learning, presentation of explanations and predictions, and the exploitation of results taking into account ethical, social, legal, and business aspects. Data science emerged due to three concurring factors, unleashed by the digital transformation of society: a) the advent of Big Data; b) the advances in data analysis and learning techniques; and c) the advances in scalable high-performance computing infrastructures. The three factors together are an explosive mix: big data provide the critical mass of factual examples to learn from; analytics are able to learn predictive models and behavioral patterns from these data; scalable computing platforms make to ingest the data and perform the analytics feasible in practice.
  13. 13. Digital Humanities | Pisa febbraio-aprile 2017 | Luca De Biase Il futuro “We shape our buildings; thereafter they shape us”. Winston Churchill
  14. 14. per decidere ci facciamo un’idea del futuro possiamo leggere i fatti come finestre per conoscere il futuro?
  15. 15. Cassie, robot bipede di Agility Robotics, spin-off dell’Oregon State University. http://www.futurix.it/2017/02/cassie-robot-levoluzione-della-specie_78.html alcuni fatti parlano di futuro in modo più evidente degli altri
  16. 16. il futuro sta cambiando
  17. 17. Shift happens ❖ Deep Knowledge Ventures hires Vital, an algorithm, for the board ❖ Narrative sciences writes financial articles for Forbes with no human involvement ❖ Watson, IBM, is better than most physicians in reading medical analysis ❖ A self-driving car, by Alphabet Google, has not been responsible of any accidents after 3 millions miles on the road (there have been 17 small accidents caused by cars that were driven by humans)
  18. 18. Shift happens ❖ Digital technologies have taken most of human information recording ❖ The web has changed a lot of industries (music, news, tourism, banks, and counting) ❖ But a lot more is coming
  19. 19. Shift happens ❖ Big data ❖ Robotics ❖ Nanotechnology ❖ Biotechnology ❖ Neuro-science ❖ Particle physics ❖ Additive production ❖ Artificial intelligence ❖ Collective intelligence ❖ Sharing economy ❖ Climate change ❖ Space exploration ❖ Startups ❖ Bitcoin
  20. 20. A robot suitcase which follows you is made by the Israeli startup NUA Robotics. It is full of sensors, computer vision and robotics
  21. 21. Lily is a drone that follows you whereever you go and takes pictures or movies about everything you do
  22. 22. Teslasuit is a virtual reality device for full immersion experiences
  23. 23. –Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, Oxford University “According to our estimates, about 47 percent of total US employment is at risk”. THE FUTURE OF EMPLOYMENT: HOW SUSCEPTIBLE ARE JOBS TO .COMPUTERISATION? http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf
  24. 24. Edward Snowden revealed what the Us mass surveillance program is doing to the net
  25. 25. ❖ sei un cittadino o un lavoratore preoccupato del futuro? ❖ sei interessato al futuro per migliorare i tuoi progetti? ❖ stai cercando opportunità nel contesto del Big Shift?
  26. 26. come guardiamo avanti?
  27. 27. Le previsioni sono difficili quando i cambiamenti sono profondi
  28. 28. –The Economist “L’economia è la scienza che studia perché le sue previsioni non si sono avverate”.
  29. 29. Che cosa succederà? ❖ Che cosa sappiamo di non sapere? ❖ Che cosa non sappiamo di non sapere?
  30. 30. Che cosa succederà? ❖ Siamo influenzati da ciò che vogliamo? ❖ Siamo influenzati da ciò che speriamo? ❖ Siamo influenzati dal pregiudizio?
  31. 31. Che cosa succederà? ❖ Abbiamo bisogno di una migliore comprensione del futuro per migliorare i nostri progetti?
  32. 32. Abbiamo bisogno di un’epistemologia ❖ Fare la Domanda ❖ Cercare nel mondo ❖ Mappare le possibilità; ❖ fare la prossima Domanda Jamais Cascio, futuris, Futures Thinking: The Basics http://www.fastcompany.com/1362037/futures-thinking-basics
  33. 33. Abbiamo bisogno di un’epistemologia ❖ The Dragon - what we know that we don’t know ❖ The Black Swan - what we know doesn’t fit the theory ❖ The Mule - what we don’t know that we don’t know Jamais Cascio, futuris, Futures Thinking: The Basics http://www.fastcompany.com/1362037/futures-thinking-basics
  34. 34. Abbiamo bisogno di una strategia ❖ Non c’è una possibile previsione: è possibile definire una strategia per costruire sistemi anti-fragili Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Black Swan, 2007 Nassim Nicholas Taleb's Home Page: http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com Two quotes form Taleb’s new book: “Rationality is avoidance of systemic ruin.” And “Rationality is indistinguishable from precaution.”
  35. 35. Che cosa possiamo dire del futuro?
  36. 36. –Everybody knows that “Il futuro è la conseguenza di ciò che facciamo”.
  37. 37. How we decide?
  38. 38. How we decide? ❖ Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow, Penguin, 2013
  39. 39. How we decide? ❖ We usually go with the first idea that comes to our mind ❖ Reasoning is rare ❖ The first idea, intuition, comes for repeated messages, deep rooted ideas, culture, prejudice and other things ❖ Some intuitive decisions are made in terms of the way we look at the future
  40. 40. ❖ We decide by intuition ❖ What we decide builds the future ❖ Sometimes there is reasoning, most of the times not ❖ The ideas we have about the future shape in some ways our decision making ❖ The ideas we have about the future shape the future
  41. 41. La prima legge degli studi sul futuro…
  42. 42. –Institute for the Future “There are no facts in the future, only narratives”
  43. 43. Narrative
  44. 44. Narratives ❖ Financial ❖ Technological ❖ Ecological
  45. 45. Narratives ❖ This is where humanities and techno-science collide and generate what we are - for now - calling: digital humanities ❖ Both science and arts are a sort of research in unknown territories ❖ They just use different tools. And they should be talking more between each other
  46. 46. Narratives Financial values The only judge is the market value, which in turn is defined by future ability to make profits. This means, for example, that if humans cost too much, they will be replaced by robots. This means that if a startup has more financial backing it will win on every competing idea. Because the best is the financially healthier. The rest is secondary.
  47. 47. Narratives Techno-progress What works wins. There are laws in technological progress which allow us to understand what will happen. The Moore’s law commands on all of them. And it describes the future in terms of exponential explosion of the power of computing. Which will extend to every digitally powered machine. Exponential growth is inevitable. Resistance is futile.
  48. 48. Narratives Ecological stories Everything is interconnected. Phenomena coevolve. There is a plurality of life forms and the more there are the better for the health of the environment. Pollution happens when consumption of resources exceeds the generation of resources. Every species growth arrives to its limits. Every mutation looks for its niche. Equilibrium is in diversity.
  49. 49. Narratives create a perspective ❖ People need to choose and a narrative creates an idea of what a choice will bring ❖ Storytelling can be a sort of manipulation of the will of people ❖ Freedom is consciousness about the narrative we think we live in
  50. 50. –Carlo Goldoni “I cannot write what is true, because if I did nobody would believe me. Thus, I write what is likely”.
  51. 51. Narratives need to be credible ❖ If people experience a life that is defined by a narrative, they are brought to think that the narrative is the truth ❖ If a narrative is shared by the vast majority and is not challenged, it tends to become self-fulfilling ❖ People live in an environment which is build by its architects with a narrative in mind
  52. 52. Future thinking readings: ❖ Al Gore, The future, WH Allen, 2013 ❖ James Canton, The extreme future, Dutton, 2006 ❖ Joel Garreau, Radical evolution, Broadway Books, 2005
  53. 53. Future thinking readings: ❖ Age of networked matter. http://www.iftf.org/aonm/ ❖ Future visions. http://news.microsoft.com/ futurevisions/ ❖ Fantascienza come racconto del futuro http:// blog.debiase.com/2016/01/15/fantascienza-come- racconto-del-futuro/
  54. 54. Future thinking readings: ❖ FUTURES THINKING: THE BASICS ❖ http://www.fastcompany.com/1362037/futures-thinking-basics ❖ FUTURES THINKING: ASKING THE QUESTION ❖ http://www.fastcompany.com/1413317/futures-thinking-asking-question ❖ FUTURES THINKING: SCANNING THE WORLD ❖ http://www.fastcompany.com/1470137/futures-thinking-scanning-world ❖ FUTURES THINKING: A BIBLIOGRAPHY ❖ http://www.fastcompany.com/1617780/futures-thinking-bibliography
  55. 55. Future thinking readings: ❖ Future timelinehttp://futuretimeline.net ❖ How to see into the future. http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/ 2/3950604a-33bc-11e4- ba62-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3zPYJLR8D ❖ CHAMP ● Comparisons are important: use relevant comparisons as a starting point; ● Historical trends can help: look at history unless you have a strong reason to expect change; ● Average opinions: experts disagree, so find out what they think and pick a midpoint; ● Mathematical models: when model-based predictions are available, you should take them into account; ● Predictable biases exist and can be allowed for. Don’t let your hopes influence your forecasts, for example; don’t stubbornly cling to old forecasts in the face of news.
  56. 56. If we think the future as narratives: ❖ We don’t know the future, we just build it, by acting now and generating consequences ❖ We act now by thinking in a way that is understandable in terms of narratives ❖ The future is not the future of technology: it is a mix of scientific, technological and humanistic knowledge
  57. 57. –Tom Perrault, Harvard Business Review “But there will be a limit to how far computers can replace humans. What can’t be replaced in any organization imaginable in the future is precisely what seems overlooked today: liberal arts skills, such as creativity, empathy, listening, and vision. These skills, not digital or technological ones, will hold the keys to a company’s future success.”. Digital Companies Need More Liberal Arts Majors https://hbr.org/2016/01/digital-companies-need-more-liberal-arts-majors
  58. 58. It’s what happens in the info-sphere
  59. 59. It’s what happens in the info-sphere ❖ The info-sphere is no abstract notion: it is build of nature, cables, platforms, information, knowledge, networks, social relations, algorithms… ❖ The info-sphere evolves by projects and failures, visions and experiments, startups and mega-companies, software and hardware, power and critics. ❖ Innovation is the name of the game. And it shows some evolutionary patterns

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