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Chapter01 Introduction 2019

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Chapter01 Introduction 2019

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Chapter01 Introduction 2019

  1. 1. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 1 Please discontinue use of cell phone and turn off ringer Introduction Winter session 2019
  2. 2. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 2 The world produces between one and two exabytes of unique information per year, which is roughly 250 megabytes for every man, woman, and child on earth. Source: Lyman, P. and Varian, H.R. (2000). Reprint: How Much Information? The Journal of Electronic Publishing, Vol. 6, Issue 2, Dec., http://quod.lib.umich.edu/cgi/t/text/text-idx?c=jep;view=text;rgn=main;idno=3336451.0006.204 How much information is there in the world? The world produces between one and two exabytes of unique information per year, which is roughly 250 megabytes for every man, woman, and child on earth. An exabyte is a billion gigabytes, or 1018 bytes. Unit Symbol Size Kilobyte Megabyte Gigabyte Terabyte Petabyte Exabyte Zettabyte Yottabyte Brontobyte Kb Mb Gb Tb Pb Eb Zb Yb Bb 210 bytes 220 bytes 230 bytes 240 bytes 250 bytes 260 bytes 270 bytes 280 bytes 290 bytes
  3. 3. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 3 2002 could be considered the beginning of the digital age, the first year worldwide digital storage capacity overtook total analog capacity. Hilbert, M. and López, P. The World's Technological Capacity to Store, Communicate, and Compute Information. Science, 10 February 2011 DOI:10.1126/science.1200970 and ScienceDaily (Feb. 11, 2011). How Much Information Is There in the World? http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/02/110210141219.htm How much information is there in the world?
  4. 4. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 4Visualized: Rise of the digital information age, Posted by Jack Dutch, on http://4feb2011.blogspot.com/ 2002
  5. 5. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 5 Hilbert, M. and López, P. The World's Technological Capacity to Store, Communicate, and Compute Information. Science, 10 February 2011 DOI:10.1126/science.1200970 and ScienceDaily (Feb. 11, 2011). How Much Information Is There in the World? http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/02/110210141219.htm 2002 could be considered the beginning of the digital age, the first year worldwide digital storage capacity overtook total analog capacity. As of 2007, almost 94% of our memory was in digital form. How much information is there in the world?
  6. 6. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 6 94%
  7. 7. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 7 In 2013, the digital part represents more than 98% of the total. A new term has been coined to illustrate this trend: big data. In 2013, the digital part represents more than 98% of the total. How much information is there in the world?
  8. 8. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 8 GetSoftwareHelp (April 28, 2014). Introduction to ‘Deep Web’, https://getsoftwarehelp24x7.wordpress.com/2014/04/28/introduction-to- deep-web/, last accessed May 24, 2016. BrightPlanet (March 27, 2014). Clearing Up Confusion – Deep Web vs. Dark Web, BrightPlanet, https://brightplanet.com/2014/03/clearing-confusion-deep-web-vs-dark-web/, last accessed May 24, 2016 The Web contains more than 170 terabytes of information on its surface How much information is there in the world? The Surface Web is anything that a search engine can find The Surface Web is anything that a search engine can find while the Deep Web is anything that a search engine cannot find. Surface Web: 4% of Web content Deep Web: 96% of Web content
  9. 9. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 9 The Web contains more than 170 terabytes of information on its surface; in volume this is seventeen times the size of the Library of Congress print collections. How much information is there in the world? Surface Web: 4% of Web content Deep Web: 96% of Web content The Web contains more than 170 terabytes of information on its surface
  10. 10. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 10 The deep Web contains nearly 550 billion individual documents compared to the 1 billion of the surface Web. How much information is there in the world? GetSoftwareHelp (April 28, 2014). Introduction to ‘Deep Web’, https://getsoftwarehelp24x7.wordpress.com/2014/04/28/introduction-to- deep-web/, last accessed May 24, 2016.
  11. 11. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 11 How much information is there in the world? Levitin, D.J. (Sunday 18 January 2015). Why the modern world is bad for your brain, http://www.theguardian.com/science/2015/jan/18/modern-world-bad-for-brain-daniel-j-levitin-organized-mind-information- overload?CMP=fb_gu, last accessed June 26, 2015. 20 emails Have a minute? 7 voice messages 12 attachments psst…. u there?Information overload
  12. 12. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 12 How much information is there in the world? Information overload
  13. 13. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 13 The ratio between information supply and information demand grew from 82:1 minutes in 1960 to 884:1 minutes in 2005. How much information is there in the world? Minutes offered versus minutes consumed (eg., how many TV channels are offered) compared with how much information is consumed (eg., the typical TV displays only one TV channel at a time). W. Russell Neuman, Yong Jin Park, and Elliot Panek, “Tracking the Flow of Information Into the Home: An Empirical Assessment of the Digital Revolution in the U.S. from 1960 to 2005.”, as cited by Hilbert, M. (2012). How to Measure “How Much Information”? Theoretical, Methodological, and Statistical Challenges for the Social Sciences, International Journal of Communication, Vol. 6, pp. 1042–1055, ijoc.org/index.php/ijoc/article/viewFile/1318/746, last accessed May 24, 2016.
  14. 14. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 14 The ratio between information supply and information demand grew from 82:1 minutes in 1960 to 884:1 minutes in 2005. How much information is there in the world? The ratio between information supply and information demand grew from 82:1 minutes in 1960 to 884:1 minutes in 2005. Obviously, this “is not a human-scale cognitive challenge; it is one in which humans will inevitably turn to the increasingly intelligent digital technologies that created the abundance in the first place for help in sorting it out”. W. Russell Neuman, Yong Jin Park, and Elliot Panek, “Tracking the Flow of Information Into the Home: An Empirical Assessment of the Digital Revolution in the U.S. from 1960 to 2005.”, as cited by Hilbert, M. (2012). How to Measure “How Much Information”? Theoretical, Methodological, and Statistical Challenges for the Social Sciences, International Journal of Communication, Vol. 6, pp. 1042–1055, ijoc.org/index.php/ijoc/article/viewFile/1318/746, last accessed May 24, 2016.
  15. 15. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 15 The limitations of the human being • The sensory limitations • The mental limitations • The exceptions
  16. 16. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 16 • The sensory limitations • Eyesight • Hearing • Touch • Taste • Smell • The mental limitations • The exceptions The limitations of the human being
  17. 17. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 17 The whole continuum of light size, frequency, and energy is called the electromagnetic spectrum. Visible light is only a very tiny part of that spectrum - about one-thousandth of 1 percent (1% x 10-3). Booker, R. and Boysen, E. (2005). Nanotechnology for Dummies, Wiley Publishing, p. 49. The limitations of the human being
  18. 18. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 18 The limitations of the human being The whole continuum of light size, frequency, and energy is called the electromagnetic spectrum. Visible light is only a very tiny part of that spectrum - about one-thousandth of 1 percent (1% x 10-3). Booker, R. and Boysen, E. (2005). Nanotechnology for Dummies, Wiley Publishing, p. 49.
  19. 19. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 19 The illusion of White The limitations of the human being - Eyesight See: http://www.techno-science.net/?onglet=news&news=10235 A B
  20. 20. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 20 The limitations of the human being - Eyesight YouTube (Jan 27, 2017). Better world for Blind People, Tech Insider, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S6GvsXJl2xY, last accessed Feb 4, 2017. 0:59
  21. 21. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 21 The limitations of the human being • The sensory limitations • Eyesight • Hearing • Touch • Taste • Smell • The mental limitations • The exceptions
  22. 22. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 220:24 The limitations of the human being - Hearing
  23. 23. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 23 1 Hz 20 Hz 1 KHz 20 KHz 200 MHz Frequencies Decibels (dB) 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 10 The limitations of the human being - Hearing 1 Hz 20 Hz 1 KHz 20 KHz 200 MHz Frequencies Decibels (dB) 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 10 infrasounds 1 Hz 20 Hz 1 KHz 20 KHz 200 MHz Frequencies Decibels (dB) 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 10 infrasounds supersounds 1 Hz 20 Hz 1 KHz 20 KHz 200 MHz Frequencies Decibels (dB) 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 10 infrasounds supersounds ultrasounds 1 Hz 20 Hz 1 KHz 20 KHz 200 MHz Frequencies Decibels (dB) 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 10 infrasounds supersounds ultrasounds hypersounds Audible area
  24. 24. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 24 The limitations of the human being - Hearing
  25. 25. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 25 The limitations of the human being • The sensory limitations • Eyesight • Hearing • Touch • Taste • Smell • The mental limitations • The exceptions
  26. 26. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 26 • The sensory limitations • The mental limitations • The exceptions The limitations of the human being
  27. 27. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 27 • The sensory limitations • The mental limitations • The exceptions • Limited rationality • Levels of abstraction • Memory limits • Attention & concentration • Imagination & creativity • Selective perception • Reasoning • Probability and future events • Regression toward the mean • Association & causality • Mathematics The limitations of the human being
  28. 28. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 28 • The sensory limitations • The mental limitations • The exceptions • Limited rationality • Levels of abstraction • Memory limits • Attention & concentration • Imagination & creativity • Selective perception • Reasoning • Probability and future events • Regression toward the mean • Association & causality • Mathematics The limitations of the human being
  29. 29. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 29 The limitations of the human being
  30. 30. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 30 The limitations of the human being – Limited rationality Aristotle thought that heavy objects fell faster than lighter objects, it took a millennium before Galileo proved otherwise.
  31. 31. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 31 The limitations of the human being – Limited rationality-Framing effects Imagine that I give you TD 200. Source: Dawes, R.M. (1988). Rational Choice in an Uncertain World, (Editor-Jerome Kagan) Harcourt Brace Jovanovich. Imagine that I give you TD 200. I now offer you more, in the form of one of two options: Imagine that I give you TD 200. I now offer you more, in the form of one of two options: Option 1: I will give you an additional TD 100. Imagine that I give you TD 200. I now offer you more, in the form of one of two options: Option 1: I will give you an additional TD 100. Option 2: I will toss a coin. If it lands heads, I will give you an additional TD 200; if it lands tails, I will give you no additional money.
  32. 32. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 32 Imagine that I give you TD 400.Imagine that I give you TD 400. You must choose one of the following two options: Imagine that I give you TD 400. You must choose one of the following two options: Option 1: You must give me back TD 100. Imagine that I give you TD 400. You must choose one of the following two options: Option 1: You must give me back TD 100. Option 2: I will toss a coin. If it lands heads, you must give me back TD 200; if it lands tails, you may keep all the money I gave you. The limitations of the human being – Limited rationality-Framing effects
  33. 33. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 33 Risk-seeking (Certainty-averse) Gaining money Risk-averse Losing money Risk-seeking The limitations of the human being – Limited rationality-Framing effects
  34. 34. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 34 In the last century, humans have landed a man on the moon, sequenced the genome, and created the Internet — but, surprisingly, we may be slowly evolving to be less intelligent than our ancestors. Source: Koebler, J. (2012). Dumb and Dumber: Study Says Humans Are Slowly Losing Their Smarts - Stanford geneticist says humans evolving into dumber species, November 13, U.S.News & World Report, http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2012/11/13/dumb-and-dumber-study-says-humans-are-slowly-losing-their-smarts, last accessed on Mar 12, 2013. The limitations of the human being – Limited rationality-Framing effects
  35. 35. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 35 The limitations of the human being – Limited rationality-Framing effects Bratsberg, B. and Rogeberg, O. (11 June 2018). Flynn effect and its reversal are both environmentally caused, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the Unites States of America (PNAS), http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/06/05/1718793115, last accessed July 1, 2018.
  36. 36. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 36 The limitations of the human being – Limited rationality-Framing effects Fish, I. (12 June 2018). Young people really ARE getting more stupid: IQs have started to fall by seven points per generation in 'pretty worrying' trend, scientists discover, http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-5832789/Young-people-really-getting-stupid-IQs- falling-seven-points-generation.html, last accessed July 1, 2018. O'Neill, N. (12 June 2018). Millennial men are getting dumber by the year, https://nypost.com/2018/06/12/millennial-men-are-getting- dumber-by-the-year/, last accessed July 1, 2018.
  37. 37. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 37 The limitations of the human being – Limited rationality-Framing effects Bratsberg, B. and Rogeberg, O. (11 June 2018). Flynn effect and its reversal are both environmentally caused, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the Unites States of America (PNAS), http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/06/05/1718793115, last accessed July 1, 2018.
  38. 38. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 38 The limitations of the human being – Limited rationality-Framing effects Bratsberg, B. and Rogeberg, O. (11 June 2018). Flynn effect and its reversal are both environmentally caused, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the Unites States of America (PNAS), http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/06/05/1718793115, last accessed July 1, 2018.
  39. 39. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 39 The limitations of the human being • The sensory limitations • The mental limitations • The exceptions • Limited rationality • Levels of abstraction • Memory limits • Attention & concentration • Imagination & creativity • Selective perception • Reasoning • Probability and future events • Regression toward the mean • Association & causality • Mathematics
  40. 40. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 40 The limitations of the human being: Abstractions Pos Country Area (km²) 83 Laos 236.800 84 Guyana 214.970 85 Belarus 207.600 86 Kyrgyzstan 198.500 87 Senegal 196.190 88 Syria 185.180 89 Cambodia 181.035 90 Uruguay 176.220 91 Tunisia 163.610 92 Suriname 163.270 93 Bangladesh 147.570 94 Nepal 147.181 95 Tajikistan 143.100 96 Greece 131.940 Wikipedia (17 August 2016). List of countries by area, https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_area, last accessed Jan 09, 2017. Is Tunisia a particularly small country?
  41. 41. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 41 Pos Country Area (km²) 83 Laos 236.800 84 Guyana 214.970 85 Belarus 207.600 86 Kyrgyzstan 198.500 87 Senegal 196.190 88 Syria 185.180 89 Cambodia 181.035 90 Uruguay 176.220 91 Tunisia 163.610 92 Suriname 163.270 93 Bangladesh 147.570 94 Nepal 147.181 95 Tajikistan 143.100 96 Greece 131.940 The limitations of the human being: Abstractions Is Tunisia a particularly small country?
  42. 42. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 42 Pos Country Area (km²) 1 Russia 17.098.246 2 Canada 9.984.670 3 China 9.572.900 4 USA 9.525.067 5 Brazil 8.515.767 6 Australia 7.692.024 7 India 3.287.263 8 Argentina 2.780.400 9 Kazakhstan 2.724.900 10 Algeria 2.381.740 11 Congo (Dem.) 2.345.410 12 Denmark 2.210.583 13 Saudi Arabia 2.149.690 The limitations of the human being: Abstractions Is Tunisia a particularly small country?
  43. 43. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 43 Pos Country Area (km²) 186 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 389 187 Grenada 340 188 Malta 316 189 Maldives 300 190 Saint Kitts and Nevis 261 191 Marshall Islands 181 192 Liechtenstein 160 193 San Marino 61 194 Tuvalu 26 195 Nauru 21 196 Monaco 2 197 Vatican City 0.5 Is Tunisia a particularly small country? The limitations of the human being: Abstractions
  44. 44. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 44 There are 90 countries that are larger than Tunisia, but Tunisia is larger than 106 countries. In fact, Tunisia (163.610 km²) is Remarks made by Haithem Kchaou on his Facebook wall (https://www.facebook.com/haithem.k/posts/10211793632135802) on Jan 6, 2017 about the illusion that Tunisia is a “small” country. There are 90 countries that are larger than Tunisia, but Tunisia is larger than 106 countries. In fact, Tunisia (163.610 km²) is 4 times larger than Denmark (43.094 km²). The limitations of the human being: Abstractions
  45. 45. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 45 The limitations of the human being: Abstractions Source: The True Size: http://thetruesize.com/#?borders=1~!MTUxMDA2Njk.MTAxOTM1MTA*MjYyODEzNDE(MTIzNjgyNTU~!CONTIGUOUS_US*MTY0 NDUyNQ.OTg1NDM3MA(MTc1)MA
  46. 46. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 46 There are 90 countries that are larger than Tunisia, but Tunisia is larger than 106 countries. In fact, Tunisia (163.610 km²) is 4 times larger than Denmark (43.094 km²). 4 times larger than Switzerland (41.277 km²). Remarks made by Haithem Kchaou on his Facebook wall (https://www.facebook.com/haithem.k/posts/10211793632135802) on Jan 6, 2017 about the illusion that Tunisia is a “small” country. The limitations of the human being: Abstractions
  47. 47. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 47 The limitations of the human being: Abstractions Source: The True Size: http://thetruesize.com/#?borders=1~!MTUxMDA2Njk.MTAxOTM1MTA*MjYyODEzNDE(MTIzNjgyNTU~!CONTIGUOUS_US*MTY0 NDUyNQ.OTg1NDM3MA(MTc1)MA
  48. 48. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 48 There are 90 countries that are larger than Tunisia, but Tunisia is larger than 106 countries. In fact, Tunisia (163.610 km²) is 4 times larger than Denmark (43.094 km²). 4 times larger than Switzerland (41.277 km²). 4 times larger than the Netherlands (41.543 km²). Remarks made by Haithem Kchaou on his Facebook wall (https://www.facebook.com/haithem.k/posts/10211793632135802) on Jan 6, 2017 about the illusion that Tunisia is a “small” country. The limitations of the human being: Abstractions There are 90 countries that are larger than Tunisia, but Tunisia is larger than 106 countries. In fact, Tunisia (163.610 km²) is 4 times larger than Denmark (43.094 km²). 4 times larger than Switzerland (41.277 km²). 4 times larger than the Netherlands (41.543 km²). larger than England (130.395 km²) by 30.000km². There are 90 countries that are larger than Tunisia, but Tunisia is larger than 106 countries. In fact, Tunisia (163.610 km²) is 4 times larger than Denmark (43.094 km²). 4 times larger than Switzerland (41.277 km²). 4 times larger than the Netherlands (41.543 km²). larger than England (130.395 km²) by 30.000km². larger than North Korea (120.538 km²) by 40.000km². etc.
  49. 49. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 49 The limitations of the human being: Abstractions
  50. 50. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 50 The limitations of the human being – Imagination & creativity “PRACTICALLY EVERY WORD we use to describe a computer is a metaphor. “File,” “window,” even “memory” all stand in for collections of ones and zeros that are themselves representations of an impossibly complex maze of wires, transistors and the electrons moving through them.” Greenberg, A. (2016). Forget Software—Now Hackers Are Exploiting Physics, Wired, Aug 31, https://www.wired.com/2016/08/new- form-hacking-breaks-ideas-computers-work/?CNDID=, last accessed Sept 1, 2016.
  51. 51. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 51 The limitations of the human being • The sensory limitations • The mental limitations • The exceptions • Limited rationality • Levels of abstraction • Memory limits • Attention & concentration • Imagination & creativity • Selective perception • Reasoning • Probability and future events • Regression toward the mean • Association & causality • Mathematics
  52. 52. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 52 Environmental stimuli Environmental stimuli Sensory memorySensory memory Environmental stimuli Touch store Hearing store Vision store Sensory memory Environmental stimuli Sensory memory Not attended to Forgotten Environmental stimuli Touch store Hearing store Vision store Sensory memory Environmental stimuli Sensory memory Not attended to Forgotten Environmental stimuli Touch store Hearing store Vision store Sensory memory Processing Short-term memory (STM) Environmental stimuli Sensory memory Not attended to Forgotten Environmental stimuli Touch store Hearing store Vision store Sensory memory Processing Not coded while in STM Forgotten Short-term memory (STM) Environmental stimuli Sensory memory Not attended to Forgotten Environmental stimuli Touch store Hearing store Vision store Sensory memory Processing Rehearsal Not coded while in STM Forgotten Short-term memory (STM) Environmental stimuli Sensory memory Not attended to Forgotten Environmental stimuli Touch store Hearing store Vision store Sensory memory Processing Processing Rehearsal Not coded while in STM Forgotten Short-term memory (STM) Environmental stimuli Sensory memory Not attended to Forgotten Environmental stimuli Touch store Hearing store Vision store Sensory memory Processing Long-term memory (LTM) Processing Rehearsal Not coded while in STM Forgotten Short-term memory (STM) Environmental stimuli Sensory memory Not attended to Forgotten Environmental stimuli Touch store Hearing store Vision store Sensory memory Processing The limitations of the human being – Memory limits Inspired by BBC (2011). The brain and memory, http://www.bbc.co.uk/schools/gcsebitesize/science/add_ocr/brain_mind/memoryrev1.shtml
  53. 53. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 53 Long-term memory (LTM) Processing Rehearsal Not coded while in STM Forgotten Short-term memory (STM) Environmental stimuli Sensory memory Not attended to Forgotten Environmental stimuli Touch store Hearing store Vision store Sensory memory Processing 7±2 symbols The limitations of the human being – Memory limits
  54. 54. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 54 The limitations of the human being – Memory limits
  55. 55. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 55 The limitations of the human being – Memory limits 0:1 2From: Déjà vu — we've all had it before. But what exactly is it? Everything Explained
  56. 56. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 56 The limitations of the human being – Memory limits
  57. 57. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 57 The MyLifeBits project Gordon Bell saves all his memories on an electronic medium: Voir http://research.microsoft.com/users/GBell/ articles that he reads, Web sites that he visits, mail, phone calls, conferences that he attends, travels,… EVERYTHING. The SenseCam
  58. 58. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 58 1:0 3
  59. 59. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 59 The limitations of the human being • The sensory limitations • The mental limitations • The exceptions • Limited rationality • Levels of abstraction • Memory limits • Attention & concentration • Imagination & creativity • Selective perception • Reasoning • Probability and future events • Regression toward the mean • Association & causality • Mathematics
  60. 60. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 60 The limitations of the human being – Attention & concentration Source: Wikipedia (2011). Attention Span, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attention_span, and Dukette, D. and Cornish, D. (2009). The Essential 20: Twenty Components of an Excellent Health Care Team. RoseDog Books. pp. 72–73 Most people are unable to sustain attention on one thing for more than about 20 minutes at a time, although they can choose repeatedly to re-focus on the same thing. This ability to renew attention permits people to “pay attention” to things that last for more than a few minutes, such as long movies.
  61. 61. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 61 0:30 The limitations of the human being – Attention & concentration
  62. 62. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 62 The limitations of the human being • The sensory limitations • The mental limitations • The exceptions • Limited rationality • Levels of abstraction • Memory limits • Attention & concentration • Imagination & creativity • Selective perceptions • Reasoning • Probability and future events • Regression toward the mean • Association & causality • Mathematics
  63. 63. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 63 The limitations of the human being – Imagination & creativity Submarine Crane
  64. 64. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 64 Dam Train The limitations of the human being – Imagination & creativity
  65. 65. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 65 Caravan Mountain The limitations of the human being – Imagination & creativity
  66. 66. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 66 Caravan Ants den The limitations of the human being – Imagination & creativity
  67. 67. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 67 The Hummingbird, “nature’s helicopter” Helicopter The limitations of the human being – Imagination & creativity
  68. 68. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 68 • In fact, a vast majority of human inventions are akin to lucky finds due to serendipity or the fruit of chance than of creative imagination. Serendipity: a propensity for making fortunate discoveries while looking for something unrelated (Wikipedia). The limitations of the human being – Imagination & creativity
  69. 69. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 69 • In fact, a vast majority of human inventions are akin to lucky finds due to serendipity or the fruit of chance than of creative imagination. • The origins of nuclear physics go back to the completely fortuitous discovery of radioactivity by Henri Becquerel in 1896. • No theory, genius, or imagination led to the discovery of superconductors at high temperature by J.G. Bednorz and K.A. Muller, but their perseverance and their stubbornness to make experiments using various materials. The limitations of the human being – Imagination & creativity
  70. 70. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 70 • Thomas Edison suggested that the genius was composed of 95% of perseverance and 5% of inspiration. The limitations of the human being – Imagination & creativity
  71. 71. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 71 Albert Einstein often repeated that imagination was more important than knowledge. In fact, he attributed his discoveries more to his imagination and his intuition than to his intelligence. “I never discovered anything with my rational mind” Albert Einstein1 1 As reported by Peter Senge, in The Fifth Discipline, p. 169. The limitations of the human being – Imagination & creativity
  72. 72. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 72 The limitations of the human being • The sensory limitations • The mental limitations • The exceptions • Limited rationality • Levels of abstraction • Memory limits • Attention & concentration • Imagination & creativity • Selective perception • Reasoning • Probability and future events • Regression toward the mean • Association & causality • Mathematics
  73. 73. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 73 The limitations of the human being – Selective Perception
  74. 74. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 74 The limitations of the human being – Selective Perception (The Change Blindness) The Monkey Business Illusion 0:48
  75. 75. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 75 We all perceive the world differently. Of all the manifestations of the outside world, we only select those that we like. When we hear a conversation, we retain only what we would have liked to hear. People put more trust in what they already “know” than in what they really see or hear. To judge the reliability of a piece of information, an individual will consider the degree of respectability of the source. One has more trust in what is printed in a book than in what is said by a friend. One has less trust in what is said than in the way in which it is said.
  76. 76. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 76 The limitations of the human being • The sensory limitations • The mental limitations • The exceptions • Limited rationality • Levels of abstraction • Memory limits • Attention & concentration • Imagination & creativity • Selective perceptions • Reasoning • Probability and future events • Regression toward the mean • Association & causality • Mathematics
  77. 77. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 77 The limitations of the human being – Reasoning • One of the most disastrous reasoning is when one posits that something must be true for the simple reason that nobody proved that it is false (argumentum ad ignorantiam). • One of the most disastrous reasoning is when one posits that something must be true for the simple reason that nobody proved that it is false (argumentum ad ignorantiam). • Alternatively, that something must be false for the simple reason that nobody proved that it is true. • One of the most disastrous reasoning is when one posits that something must be true for the simple reason that nobody proved that it is false (argumentum ad ignorantiam). • Alternatively, that something must be false for the simple reason that nobody proved that it is true. • The two reasoning modes are equally invalid, even if, occasionally, or accidentally, they lead to truth. • One of the most disastrous reasoning is when one posits that something must be true for the simple reason that nobody proved that it is false (argumentum ad ignorantiam). • Alternatively, that something must be false for the simple reason that nobody proved that it is true. • The two reasoning modes are equally invalid, even if, occasionally, or accidentally, they lead to truth. • Another reasoning leads to the assertion that something is true because everyone believes in it (or says it). Thus in Tunisia, some traffic red lights are not used simply because “nobody stops there”.
  78. 78. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 78 • One of the most disastrous reasoning is when one posits that something must be true for the simple reason that nobody proved that it is false (argumentum ad ignorantiam). • One of the most disastrous reasoning is when one posits that something must be true for the simple reason that nobody proved that it is false (argumentum ad ignorantiam). • Alternatively, that something must be false for the simple reason that nobody proved that it is true. • One of the most disastrous reasoning is when one posits that something must be true for the simple reason that nobody proved that it is false (argumentum ad ignorantiam). • Alternatively, that something must be false for the simple reason that nobody proved that it is true. • The two reasoning modes are equally invalid, even if, occasionally, or accidentally, they lead to truth. • One of the most disastrous reasoning is when one posits that something must be true for the simple reason that nobody proved that it is false (argumentum ad ignorantiam). • Alternatively, that something must be false for the simple reason that nobody proved that it is true. • The two reasoning modes are equally invalid, even if, occasionally, or accidentally, they lead to truth. • Another reasoning leads to the assertion that something is true because everyone believes in it (or says it). Thus in Tunisia, some traffic red lights are not used simply because “nobody stops there”. The limitations of the human being – Reasoning
  79. 79. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 79 The limitations of the human being – Reasoning 2:56
  80. 80. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 80 • Probability and future events • Regression toward the mean • Association & causality • Mathematics The limitations of the human being • The sensory limitations • The mental limitations • The exceptions • Limited rationality • Levels of abstraction • Memory limits • Attention & concentration • Imagination & creativity • Selective perceptions • Reasoning ‫األصلو‬ ‫يرجع‬ ‫كسكسلو‬
  81. 81. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 81 Source: Wikipedia (2011). Regression toward the mean, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_toward_the_mean, and Stigler, S. M. (1997). Regression toward the mean, historically considered. Statistical Methods in Medical Research, Vol. 6, No. 2, pp. 103–114. The limitations of the human being – Regression to the mean In statistics, regression toward the mean is the phenomenon that if a variable is extreme on its first measurement, it will tend to be closer to the average on a second measurement, and If it is extreme on a second measurement, it will tend to be closer to the average on the first measurement.
  82. 82. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 82 The limitations of the human being – Regression to the mean
  83. 83. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 83 In statistics, regression toward the mean is the phenomenon that if a variable is extreme on its first measurement, it will tend to be closer to the average on a second measurement, and If it is extreme on a second measurement, it will tend to be closer to the average on the first measurement. Regression to the mean might explain why rebukes can seem to improve performance, while praise seems to backfire1. 1. According to psychologist Daniel Kahneman, winner of the 2002 Nobel prize in economics. Source: Wikipedia (2011). Regression toward the mean, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_toward_the_mean, and Stigler, S. M. (1997). Regression toward the mean, historically considered. Statistical Methods in Medical Research, Vol. 6, No. 2, pp. 103–114. The limitations of the human being – Regression to the mean
  84. 84. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 84 • Probability and future events • Regression toward the mean • Association & causality • Mathematics The limitations of the human being • The sensory limitations • The mental limitations • The exceptions • Limited rationality • Levels of abstraction • Memory limits • Attention & concentration • Imagination & creativity • Selective perceptions • Reasoning
  85. 85. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 85 There still are people who would swear that: The limitations of the human being – Association & causality Children with bigger feet spell better. Source: Paulos, J.A. (1992). Beyond Numeracy, First Vintage Books Eds and A. Bogomolny, Correlation and Causation: Misuse and Misconception of Statistical Facts from Interactive Mathematics Miscellany and Puzzles http://www.cut-the-knot.org/do_you_know/misuse.shtml, last accessed 30 May 2011 . Children with bigger feet spell better because they are older, their greater age bringing about bigger feet and, not quite so certainly, better spelling. Older Bigger feet Better spelling
  86. 86. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 86 There still are people who would swear that: In areas of the South those countries with higher divorce rates generally have lower death rates. Those couples who are older are less likely to divorce and more likely to die than are those from counties with younger demographic profiles. Younger age Higher divorce rates Lower death rates Source: Paulos, J.A. (1992). Beyond Numeracy, First Vintage Books Eds and A. Bogomolny, Correlation and Causation: Misuse and Misconception of Statistical Facts from Interactive Mathematics Miscellany and Puzzles http://www.cut-the-knot.org/do_you_know/misuse.shtml, last accessed 30 May 2011 . The limitations of the human being – Association & causality
  87. 87. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 87 Harvard University economics professor Sendhil Mullainathan showed that the number of Google searches for the phrase “iPhone slow” increased by up to three times immediately following a new launch from Apple. The limitations of the human being – Association & causality
  88. 88. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 88 The limitations of the human being – Association & causality Maloney, A. (2014). Big Data: Correlation Does Not Equal Causation, September 2, http://www.letitrain.com/blog/big-data-correlation- does-not-equal-causation, last accessed Sept. 22,2014.
  89. 89. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 89 Harvard University economics professor Sendhil Mullainathan showed that the number of Google searches for the phrase “iPhone slow” increased by up to three times immediately following a new launch from Apple. By comparison, searches for “Samsung Galaxy slow” were unaffected by a new Samsung release. And unlike Apple, Samsung does not also make the software used by its phones. The limitations of the human being – Association & causality
  90. 90. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 90 The limitations of the human being – Association & causality Maloney, A. (2014). Big Data: Correlation Does Not Equal Causation, September 2, http://www.letitrain.com/blog/big-data-correlation- does-not-equal-causation, last accessed Sept. 22,2014.
  91. 91. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 91 The limitations of the human being – Association & causality Mullainathan, S. (2014). Hold the Phone: A Big-Data Conundrum, The New York Times, July 26, 2014, http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/27/upshot/hold-the-phone-a-big-data-conundrum.html?abt=0002&abg=1, alst accessed July 30, 2014. SENDHIL MULLAINATHAN
  92. 92. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 92 The limitations of the human being – Association & causality Mullainathan, S. (2014). Hold the Phone: A Big-Data Conundrum, The New York Times, July 26, 2014, http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/27/upshot/hold-the-phone-a-big-data-conundrum.html?abt=0002&abg=1, alst accessed July 30, 2014. SENDHIL MULLAINATHAN
  93. 93. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 93 The limitations of the human being – Association & causality Fact 1: The population of the state of Florida is mainly composed of senior citizens Fact 1 Fact 2 ? Fact 1: The population of the state of Florida is mainly composed of senior citizens. Fact 2: There is considerable funding for Alzheimer’s decease research Is it: Or: Fact 2 Fact 1 ?
  94. 94. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 94 The limitations of the human being • The sensory limitations • The mental limitations • The exceptions Very dull (0-75) Dull (76-90) Normal (91-110) Bright (111-125) Very bright (126+)
  95. 95. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 95 • The sensory limitations • The mental limitations • The exceptions 95% The limitations of the human being
  96. 96. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 96 Young gifted virtuosos can distinguish up to 50 or 60 different simultaneous sounds. Some have a ceiling of abstraction so high that it becomes impossible for them to communicate easily with common people. Some others can memorize a matrix of 50 numbers in 3 minutes. Very few people have the same kind of intelligence as Descartes, Copernicus or Albert Einstein. The limitations of the human being – The exceptions
  97. 97. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 97 The “unexplained”? 1:24
  98. 98. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 98 The “unexplained”? The explanation?
  99. 99. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com 99 The “unexplained”? 1:2 5
  100. 100. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com100 The “unexplained”? 0:51
  101. 101. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com101 • The very first bomb dropped by the Allies on Berlin during World War II killed the only elephant in the Berlin Zoo. The “unexplained” (Lincoln-Kennedy) • Abraham Lincoln was elected to Congress in 1846. John F. Kennedy was elected to Congress in 1946.
  102. 102. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com102 • The very first bomb dropped by the Allies on Berlin during World War II killed the only elephant in the Berlin Zoo. • Abraham Lincoln was elected to Congress in 1846. John F. Kennedy was elected to Congress in 1946. • Abraham Lincoln was elected to Congress in 1846. John F. Kennedy was elected to Congress in 1946. Abraham Lincoln was elected President in 1860. John F. Kennedy was elected President in 1960. Both were particularly concerned with civil rights. Both wives lost their children while living in the White House. The “unexplained” (Lincoln-Kennedy)
  103. 103. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com103 • Both Presidents were shot on a Friday. Both Presidents were shot in the head. Lincoln’s secretary was named Kennedy. Kennedy’s secretary was named Lincoln. Both were assassinated by Southerners. Both were succeeded by Southerners named Johnson. Andrew Johnson, who succeeded Lincoln, was born in 1808. Lyndon Johnson, who succeeded Kennedy, was born in 1908.
  104. 104. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com104 • John Wilkes Booth, who assassinated Lincoln, was born in 1839. Lee Harvey Oswald, who assassinated Kennedy, was born in 1939. Both assassins were known by their three names. Both names are composed of fifteen letters. Lincoln was shot at the theater named 'Ford.' Kennedy was shot in a car called “Lincoln” made by “Ford.” Lincoln was shot in a theater and his assassin ran and hid in a warehouse. Kennedy was shot from a warehouse and his assassin ran and hid in a theater.
  105. 105. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com105 • Booth and Oswald were assassinated before their trials. A week before Lincoln was shot, he was in Monroe, Maryland A week before Kennedy was shot, he was with Marilyn Monroe. Similar patterns exist between Napoleon and Hitler.
  106. 106. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com106 Resorting to tools • The first class of tools • The second class of tools
  107. 107. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com107 • The first class of tools • The second class of tools This class is made up of tools that help humans to do what they cannot do themselves. This class is made up of tools which help humans to do what they can do but more quickly, more economically or more effectively. • the saw assists them in cutting wood properly, • the wheel assists them in moving heavy objects, • the plane enables them to fly (inspired, obviously from birds), etc. • the car allows them to move more quickly, • the hammer allows them to drive in nails without making holes in their fingers, • the lever enables them to raise weights which would have required the strength of several men, etc. Resorting to tools
  108. 108. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com108 • What the computer can do better than humans A particular tool: The computer • What the computer cannot do (yet)
  109. 109. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com109 • What the computer can do better than humans • What the computer cannot do (yet) • It can carry out an almost infinite number of repetitive and tedious tasks. • It can store and process data in large quantities. • It can assist in complex tasks such as the optimal design of an architectural structure. • It cannot imagine, think, create, have intuition, dream, etc. • It cannot handle information which was not provided to it beforehand. A particular tool: The computer
  110. 110. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com1101. Actively. This does not include losing their keys, forgetting their password or being distracted by others. What humans can do1 What humans cannot do Compute Draw/Paint Imagine Love Decide Fly Dive deep Build Cure illnesses Read/Write Manage/Optimize Apply expertise Think Make precise measurements Dream Move at the speed of light Travel the galaxy(ies) Procrastinate Play music Write novels/poems Read emotions Store data in vast quantities Some inspired from Elder, J. (n.d.). Reading Selection: What Computers Can, Cannot and Should Not Do, Communicate with the past Communicate with the future Time travel Communicate with the after-life Telepathy
  111. 111. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com111 What humans can do What humans cannot do What humans cannot do but know how to do What humans can do and know how to do Compute Draw/Paint Imagine Love Decide Fly Dive deep Build Cure illnesses Read/Write Manage/Optimize Apply expertise Think Make precise measurements Dream Move at the speed of light Travel the galaxy(ies) Procrastinate Play music Write novels/poems Read emotions Store data in vast quantities Communicate with the past Communicate with the future Time travel Communicate with the after-life Telepathy 1. Actively. This does not include losing their keys, forgetting their password or being distracted by others. Some inspired from Elder, J. (n.d.). Reading Selection: What Computers Can, Cannot and Should Not Do,
  112. 112. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com112 Bain, R. (1937). Technology and State Government. American Sociological Review. Vol.2, No. 6, pp. 860-874. A tool or a technology?
  113. 113. Mohamed Louadi mlouadi@louadi.com113 For now….

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