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04 Technology Adoption Life Cycle 2018

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04 Technology Adoption Life Cycle 2018

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04 Technology Adoption Life Cycle 2018

  1. 1. 1 Please discontinue use of cell phone and turn off ringer The Technology Adoption Life Cycle Innovation & IT Management
  2. 2. 2 Introduction Curves we have seen: Curves you have seen elsewhere: Curves we have seen here:
  3. 3. 3 Introduction Curves we have seen elsewhere: Curves we have seen here: ² The Technology Adoption Life Cycle
  4. 4. 4 The IT Industry
  5. 5. 5 The IT Industry
  6. 6. 6 The history of the videocassette recorder furnishes a simple example of positive feedback. The VCR market started out with two competing formats selling at about the same price: VHS and Beta. Arthur, W.B. (1990). Positive Feedbacks in the Economy, Scientific American, Vol. 262, No.2, pp. 92-99, http://cas.umkc.edu/econ/economics/faculty/Forstater/506/506readings/PositiveFeedbacks.pdf, last accessed June 19, 2013. The IT Industry The history of the videocassette recorder furnishes a simple example of positive feedback. The VCR market started out with two competing formats selling at about the same price: VHS and Beta. Each format could realize increasing returns as its market share increased: large numbers of VHS recorders would encourage video outlets to stock more prerecorded tapes in VHS format, thereby enhancing the value of owning a VHS recorder and leading more people to buy one (The same would, of course, be true for Beta-format players). The history of the videocassette recorder furnishes a simple example of positive feedback. The VCR market started out with two competing formats selling at about the same price: VHS and Beta. Each format could realize increasing returns as its market share increased: large numbers of VHS recorders would encourage video outlets to stock more prerecorded tapes in VHS format, thereby enhancing the value of owning a VHS recorder and leading more people to buy one (The same would, of course, be true for Beta-format players). In this way, a small gain in market share would improve the competitive position of one system and help it to further increase its lead.
  7. 7. 7 Arthur, W.B. (1990). Positive Feedbacks in the Economy, Scientific American, Vol. 262, No.2, pp. 92-99, http://www.watsoninstitute.org/ge/scenarios/pubs/BrianArthuronincreasingreturnsSciAm1990.pdf, last accessed June 19, 2013. The IT Industry
  8. 8. 8 Other examples
  9. 9. 9 The Florence Cathedral clock has hands that move “counter- clockwise” around its 24-hour dial… When Paolo Uccello designed it in 1443, a convention for clockfaces had not emerged. Other examples
  10. 10. 10 This is a most unusual clock to the modern eye, not only because the Roman numeral XXIIII (24) is at the bottom, but also the clock runs right to left (counter clockwise). Tann (2008). Tuscan Traveler’s Tales – Duomo Clock Keeps “Italian Time”, http://tuscantraveler.com/2008/florence/tuscan-travelers-tales-duomo-clock-keeps-italian-time/, last accessed June 19, 2013. Other examples
  11. 11. 11 Other examples The clock of the Great Mosque of Testour, built in 1630 by Mohamed Tagharinou, an immigrant of Andalusian origin, ticks again.
  12. 12. 12 Source: WebmanagerCenter (2014). L’Horloge de Testour, enfin en marche pour 500 ans encore, http://directinfo.webmanagercenter.com/2014/11/12/lhorloge-de-testour-enfin-en-marche-pour-500-ans-encore/, last accessed Dec 21, 2014. Other examples
  13. 13. 13Photo Credits: Meriem Jha, Mastère STID, ISG-Tunis, 2017-2018.
  14. 14. 14 Tekiano (2014). L’horloge de Testour qui fonctionne à l’envers et remise en marche ! (vidéo), http://www.tekiano.com/ness/actu/11525-lhorloge-de-testour-qui-fonctionne-a-lenvers-et-remise-en-marche-video-.html, last accessed Dec 21, 2014. Other examples
  15. 15. 15 Tekiano (2014). L’horloge de Testour qui fonctionne à l’envers et remise en marche ! (vidéo), http://www.tekiano.com/ness/actu/11525-lhorloge-de-testour-qui-fonctionne-a-lenvers-et-remise-en-marche-video-.html, last accessed Dec 21, 2014. Other examples
  16. 16. 16 Other examples
  17. 17. 17 6 ÷ 2 x (1 + 2) Other examples (from math) 6 ÷ 2 x (1 + 2) What is the answer? 6 ÷ 2 x (1 + 2) 6 ÷ 2 x ( 3 ) What is inside the parentheses is calculated first 3 Now, what do we apply first? Division or multiplication?
  18. 18. 18 6 ÷ 2 x (1 + 2) What is the answer? If division first: 6 ÷ 2 x ( 3 ) 3 9 x ( 3 ) If multiplication first: 6 ÷ 2 x ( 3 ) 6 ÷ 6 1 x ( 3 ) 6 6 Bedmas Pemdas Parentheses, Exponents, Multiplication, Division, Addition, Subtraction Brackets, Exponents, Division, Multi- plication, Addition, Subtraction. Other examples (from math)
  19. 19. 19 “Track gauge” is a technical term used to define the spacing of the rails on a railway track. Wikipedia (2014). Track Gauge, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Track_gauge, accessed June 7, 2014. One of the gauges is 4 feet, 8.5 inches, and became a standard. The example of the track gauge Why was that gauge used? Because that is the way they built them in England, where railroads developed slightly ahead of the Americans, some US railroads used equipment purchased from English manufacturers.
  20. 20. 20 Because the first rail lines were built by the same people who built the pre-railroad tramways, and that’s the gauge they used. Why did they use that gauge then? Because the people who built the tramways used the same tools that they had used for building wagons, which used that wheel spacing. The example of the track gauge Why did the wagons have that particular wheel spacing? Why did the English build them like that?
  21. 21. 21 Because if they tried to use any other spacing, the wagon wheels would break on some of the old, long distance roads in England, because that’s the spacing of the wheel ruts. And just who built those old rutted roads? Imperial Rome built the first long distance roads in Europe (including England) for their legions. Those roads have been used ever since. The example of the track gauge And the ruts in the roads?
  22. 22. 22 Since the chariots were made for Imperial Rome, they were all alike in the matter of wheel spacing. Imperial Roman army chariots were made just wide enough to accommodate the rear ends of two war horses. The example of the track gauge Therefore, the standard railroad gauge of 4 feet, 8.5 inches is derived from the original specifications for an Imperial Roman war chariot!
  23. 23. 23 Mayan pictograms To this day, pictograms can still be found in the airports for example; they have precisely the same function, that is to provide very simple information independently of any linguistic reference. The unsuspected origins of things… Sellier, J. (2015). Le B.A.-BA de l'écriture, L'Histoire des inventions, Le Monde Hors-Série, pp. 50-51.
  24. 24. 24 Egyptian hieroglyphs The unsuspected origins of things…
  25. 25. 25 4000 years, from: To: The unsuspected origins of things…
  26. 26. 26 Other industries (examples)
  27. 27. 27 When are you going to buy an electric car? 1. I already have one 2. I want to be the first one on my block with an electric car 3. Not until most people have made the switch and it becomes really inconvenient to drive a gasoline car 4. When I have seen electric cars prove themselves and when there are enough service stations on the road 5. Not until hell freezes over The Technology Adoption Life Cycle
  28. 28. 28Moore, G. (1991 revised 1999). Crossing the Chasm: Marketing and Selling High-Tech, HarperCollins. Innovators Early Adopters Early Majority Late Majority Laggards 2.5% 13.5% 34.0% 34.0% 16.0% The Technology Adoption Life Cycle
  29. 29. 29Moore, G. (1991 revised 1999). Crossing the Chasm: Marketing and Selling High-Tech, HarperCollins. They pursue new technology products aggressively. They sometimes seek them out even before a formal marketing program has been launched. Technology is a central interest in their life, regardless of what function it is performing. They often are intrigued with any fundamental advance and often make a technology purchase simply for the pleasure of exploring the new device’s properties. Innovators The Technology Adoption Life Cycle
  30. 30. 30 Early Adopters They buy into new product concepts very early in their life cycle. Unlike innovators, they are not technologists. They find it easy to imagine, understand, and appreciate the benefits of a new technology, and to relate these potential benefits to their other concerns. Whenever they find a strong match, they are willing to base their buying decisions upon it. Because they do not rely on well-established references in making these buying decisions, preferring instead to rely on their own intuition and vision, they are key to opening up any high-tech market segment. Innovators The Technology Adoption Life Cycle
  31. 31. 31 They share some of the early adopter’s ability to relate to technology, but ultimately they are driven by a strong sense of practicality. They know that many of these new inventions end up as passing fads, so they wait and see how other people are making out before they buy in themselves. They want to see well-established references before investing substantially. Because there are so many people in this segment (roughly one-third of the whole adoption life cycle) winning their business is key to any substantial profits and growth. Early Majority Innovators Early Adopters The Technology Adoption Life Cycle
  32. 32. 32 They share all the concerns of the early majority, plus: They are not as comfortable with their ability to handle a technology product, if they decide to purchase it. As a result, they wait until something has become an established standard, and even then they want to see lots of support and tend to buy, therefore, from large, well-established companies. Courting the late majority’s favor is highly profitable indeed, for while profit margins decrease as the products mature, so do the selling costs, and virtually all the R&D costs have been amortized. Late Majority Innovators Early Adopters Early Majority The Technology Adoption Life Cycle
  33. 33. 33 They simply do not want anything to do with new technology, for a variety of reasons, some personal and some economic. The only time they ever buy a technological product is when it is buried so deep inside another product - the way, say, that a microprocessor is designed into the braking system of a new car - that they do not even know it is there. Laggards are generally regarded as not worth pursuing on any other basis. Moore, G. (1991 revised 1999). Crossing the Chasm: Marketing and Selling High-Tech, HarperCollins. LaggardsInnovators Early Adopters Early Majority Late Majority The Technology Adoption Life Cycle
  34. 34. 34 The model describes the market penetration of any new technology product in terms of a progression in the types of consumers it attracts throughout its useful life. We have a bell curve. The divisions in the curve are roughly equivalent to where standard deviations would fall. The model describes the market penetration of any new technology product in terms of a progression in the types of consumers it attracts throughout its useful life. We have a bell curve. The divisions in the curve are roughly equivalent to where standard deviations would fall. That is, the early majority and the late majority fall within one standard deviation of the mean 1 1 2 2 The model describes the market penetration of any new technology product in terms of a progression in the types of consumers it attracts throughout its useful life. We have a bell curve. The divisions in the curve are roughly equivalent to where standard deviations would fall. That is, the early majority and the late majority fall within one standard deviation of the mean, the early adopters and the laggards within two. 3 Early Majority Late Majority LaggardsInnovators Early Adopters Moore, G. (1991 revised 1999). Crossing the Chasm: Marketing and Selling High-Tech, HarperCollins. The Technology Adoption Life Cycle The model describes the market penetration of any new technology product in terms of a progression in the types of consumers it attracts throughout its useful life. We have a bell curve. The divisions in the curve are roughly equivalent to where standard deviations would fall. That is, the early majority and the late majority fall within one standard deviation of the mean, the early adopters and the laggards within two., and way out there, at the very onset of a new technology, about three standard deviations from the norm, are the innovators.
  35. 35. 35 Innovators Early Adopters Early Majority Late Majority Laggards EARLY MARKETS MAINSTREAM MARKETS LATE MARKET Moore, G. (1991 revised 1999). Crossing the Chasm: Marketing and Selling High-Tech, HarperCollins. The Technology Adoption Life Cycle
  36. 36. 36 The first crack This crack is between the innovators and the early adopters. It occurs when a hot technology product cannot be readily translated into a major new benefit - something like Esperanto. The enthusiasts love it for its architecture, but nobody else can even figure out how to start using it. Late Majority LaggardsInnovators Early Adopters Early Majority Moore, G. (1991 revised 1999). Crossing the Chasm: Marketing and Selling High-Tech, HarperCollins and Iskold, A. (2007). Rethinking 'Crossing The Chasm', August 6th, 2007, http://readwrite.com/2007/08/06/rethinking_crossing_the_chasm, last accessed Dec 27, 2012. The Technology Adoption Life Cycle
  37. 37. 37 This is a most unusual clock to the modern eye, not only because the Roman numeral XXIIII (24) is at the bottom, but also the clock runs right to left (counter clockwise). Tann (2008). Tuscan Traveler’s Tales – Duomo Clock Keeps “Italian Time”, http://tuscantraveler.com/2008/florence/tuscan-travelers-tales-duomo-clock-keeps-italian-time/, last accessed June 19, 2013. Which explains this
  38. 38. 38 The second crack The second crack falls between the early majority and the late majority and occurs when the market is already well developed, and the technology product has been absorbed into the mainstream. However, the early majority is willing and able to become technologically competent but the late majority, much less so. When a product reaches this point in the market development, it must be made increasingly easier to adopt in order to continue being successful. If this does not occur, the transition to the late majority may stall or never happen. Innovators Early Adopters Early Majority Late Majority Laggards The Technology Adoption Life Cycle
  39. 39. 39 Which explains this
  40. 40. 40 Innovators Early Adopters Early Majority Late Majority The “Chasm” Moore, G. (1991 revised 1999). Crossing the Chasm: Marketing and Selling High-Tech, HarperCollins. The Technology Adoption Life Cycle
  41. 41. 41 HP Printer, copier scanner, and fax (4 in 1) HP 2450 Smart Photo RICOH 4 in 1 (Copier, Printer, Scanner, Fax) Being victim of the chasm
  42. 42. 42 3:45 The Technology Adoption Life Cycle
  43. 43. 43 Crossing the chasm… (The Lone Nut) 4:08
  44. 44. 44 Crossing the chasm…
  45. 45. 45 Innovators Early Adopters Early Majority Late Majority Laggards Moore, G. (1991 revised 1999). Crossing the Chasm: Marketing and Selling High-Tech, HarperCollins and Groschupf, S. (2012). Big Data – Crossing the Chasm in 2013!, Big Data Analytics Perspectives, December 19, http://www.datameer.com/blog/big-data- analytics-perspectives/big-data-crossing-the-chasm-in-2013.html, last accessed Dec 30, 2012. The Gartner Technology Hype Cycle and the TALC
  46. 46. 46 Bottom line: There is a big difference between people who are willing to try new technologies and the rest of the population, which tends to be much more conservative. But there are exceptions. Bottom line: There is a big difference between people who are willing to try new technologies and the rest of the population, which tends to be much more conservative. The “Chasm” Innovators Early Adopters Early Majority Late Majority Laggards Moore, G. (1991 revised 1999). Crossing the Chasm: Marketing and Selling High-Tech, HarperCollins. The Technology Adoption Life Cycle
  47. 47. 47 Moore, G. (1991 revised 1999). Crossing the Chasm: Marketing and Selling High-Tech, HarperCollins and Iskold, A. (2007). Rethinking 'Crossing The Chasm', readwrite, Aug 6, http://readwrite.com/2007/08/06/rethinking_crossing_the_chasm, last accessed Dec 27, 2012. Early Adopters Early Majority Die-hard Apple fans Viral spread iPod owners love their iPods and talk about them all the time. The early adopters of this product became an army of evangelists The Technology Adoption Life Cycle
  48. 48. 48 The early adopters are the pillars needed to cross the chasm; without them the whole scheme falls apart. Iskold, A. (2007). Rethinking 'Crossing The Chasm', readwrite, Aug 6, http://readwrite.com/2007/08/06/rethinking_crossing_the_chasm, last accessed Dec 27, 2012. The early adopters are the pillars needed to cross the chasm; without them the whole scheme falls apart. You can’t make a leap and bring on board the masses if the very foundation you are standing on, the early adopters, leave to do other things. The Technology Adoption Life Cycle
  49. 49. 49 Influence Marketing (or Influencer Marketing) has recently emerged and in which focus is placed on specific key individuals (or types of individuals) rather than on the entire target market. Influence Marketing concentrates on the individuals that have influence over potential buyers, and orients marketing activities around these influencers. Examples of influencers include journalists, academics, industry analysts, professional advisers, etc. The types of informal networks
  50. 50. 50 Innovators Early Adopters Early Majority Late Majority Laggards The problem is that compared to a few years ago, the speed with which new technologies are coming to the market has increased dramatically. All these technologies are aimed at the early adopters. And they love it and they try it. But the question is what happens when your early adopters run off to play with a new great thing before you have a chance to take your technology mainstream? Iskold, A. (2007). Rethinking 'Crossing The Chasm', readwrite, http://readwrite.com/2007/08/06/rethinking_crossing_the_chasm, last accessed Dec 27, 2012. The Revised Technology Adoption Life Cycle
  51. 51. 51 Neumann, R. (Mar 26, 2013). Innovation and the S-Curve, Presentation from the 2013 LiFT Conference: Driving Innovation-based Growth, https://www.slideshare.net/wright4/double-scurve-model-of-growth?from_action=save, last accessed Aug 14, 2017. Adoption and the S-Curve Conclusion How do we reconcile these two curves?
  52. 52. 52 Neumann, R. (Mar 26, 2013). Innovation and the S-Curve, Presentation from the 2013 LiFT Conference: Driving Innovation-based Growth, https://www.slideshare.net/wright4/double-scurve-model-of-growth?from_action=save, last accessed Aug 14, 2017. Adoption and the S-Curve Conclusion How do we reconcile these two curves? Simply by successively adding the demands created by each segment to the previous one. We thus obtain the S- Curve.
  53. 53. 53 T T H H A A N N K K S SSong: Extracted from the song 141120 TK music sn04.-27510, by Artist: Pleasure Park Music - Licensed by AdRev for Rights Holder (on behalf of Pleasure Park Music), https://soundcloud.com/zoxfox87/141120-tk-music-sn05-1, last accessed July 27, 2018.

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