Wolf and Woolf 2006 paper discussion

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Presentation by Irma Caraballo Alvarez

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Wolf and Woolf 2006 paper discussion

  1. 1. Waves and Climate Change in the North-East Atlantic by Judith Wolf and David K. Woolf Presented by: Irma Caraballo Álvarez October 4, 2012
  2. 2. Outline Introduction Wave models Results Discussion
  3. 3. Introduction Wave height increase  Last 25 years  Up to 14m in January 1993  Observed by  Buoys  Ships  Satellite altimetry  TOPEX/Poseidon
  4. 4. Introduction North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)  Icelandic Low  Azores High +NAO  Stronger westerlies
  5. 5. IntroductionFigure 1. NAO from NOAA (http://www.climatewatch.noaa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/ao-nao2_pos_vs_neg.jpg).
  6. 6. Introduction Possible reasons  Increase in winds  Increase in storminess Storminess variations in decadal scales
  7. 7. Wave Models Usefulness  Interpret data  Study impacts of climate change  Investigate physical explanations  Extrapolate the model
  8. 8. Wave ModelsFigure 2. Mean atmospheric conditions for January 1993. Coloured shading/contours is wind speedin m/s, arrows indicate direction of flow.
  9. 9. Wave Models Data  ECMWF ERA-40 re-analysis model, January 1993  NCEP/NCAR re-analysis model Validation  TOPEX/Poseidon  Buoys
  10. 10. Wave Models Variables  Strength of the westerlies  Frequency of storms  Intensity of storms  Strom tracks  Storm translation speeds
  11. 11. Wave ModelsFigure 3. Idealized storm with maximum wind speed 10m/s.
  12. 12. Wave ModelsTable 1. Features of the Storm Varied in the Experimentsa. Feature Low Medium HighFrequency (month -1) 3 6 9Intensity (m s-1) 10 15 20Relative Strength 0.5 1 1.5Direction ENE NE NNESpeed (km h-1) 25 50 100aValues in bold are the "standard" case.
  13. 13. Results Storm frequency Storm intensity Relative strength of westerlies Storm track Storm translation speedFigure 4. Effects of the variables on wave height.Red crosses = monthly maximum, blue squares = monthly mean.
  14. 14. Discussion Is it possible to predict storms using this model? Can the model be used in other regions? Is NAO and storm frequency related to global warming?
  15. 15. The End

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