Relative sea level changes and vulnerability on the cordillera nature reserve
Relative Sea-Level Changes and Vulnerability on theCordillera Nature Reserve Irma Caraballo Álvarez Sofia Olivero Lora October 25, 2012
Project summaryO Climate change implications critical management and conservation problemO Importance of critical areas O Cordillera Nature Reserve O Cluster islets and submerged reefs O Important ecological systems / Endangered species O Coral, rock, and hardground reefs O Coraline sandy beaches O Sub-tropical dry forests O Case study of special interest
PalominitosSeptember 2012, Picture by: Sofia Olivero Lora
Project summaryO Global warming phenomenon increases erosion by sea level rise (Clayton, 2009). O Transgression – erosion (Chaaban et al., 2012, Ahmad and Lakham, 2011, and Phillips and Williams, 2007) O Tends suggests sea level rise (IPCC, 2007) O Threats to ecosystems (Pendelton et al., 2010; Clayton, 2009; Gesch, 2009; Vafeidis et al., 2008; and Davidson-Arnott, 2005).O Some models suggest trends not necessarily due to sea level rise (Ahmad and Lakhan, 2011).O Comprehensive analysis of shoreline changes O Sea level trends O Possible effects O Vulnerability
Research problemO Drastic shoreline changesO Not a lot of research O Coastline shifts due to sea-level changeO Sea-level changes impact on La Cordillera Natural Reserve
Goals and objectivesO Objective 1. Determine overall trends in relative sea-level changes in the in four study sites of the Cordillera Natural Reserve.O Hypothesis. If an overall relative sea-level rise is observed, then a transgression should be seen and a reduced beach area according to global warming induced sea- level rise.
Goals and objectivesO Objective 2. Determine the impact of sea- level changes on the shoreline.O Hypothesis. If relative sea-level is rising, then higher erosion should be observed at the beach.
Goals and objectivesO Objective 3. Determine if relative sea-level changes correlate with sea-level rise data for San Juan and the Virgin Islands.O Hypothesis. If a decrease in beach area and transgression is observed, then it should correlate with sea-level data from San Juan and the Virgin Islands and the transgression may indeed be caused by sea-level rise.
Goals and objectivesO Objective 4. Asses vulnerability to sea-level changes according to geomorphology, wave exposure, and slope.O Hypothesis. If variability is seen in the shoreline changes among the study sites, then the selection factors have an effect on vulnerability.
MethodologyO Study area O Selection criteria O Type and size of sediments O Beach profile inclination O Exposure to waves O Availability of data O Preliminary analysis geomorphology and elevation O Visual survey
MethodologyO Shoreline changes O Aerial photos and satellite imagery analysis O ArcGIS v. 10.1 O Overlays O Polygons O ENVI v. 5.0 O Change detection toolO Sea-level changes O NOAA Tides and currents
NOAA Tides and Currents http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends.shtml
NOAA Tides and Currents http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_update.shtml?stnid=9755371
ActivitiesO Publication in peer reviewed journal and poster presentation(s) to disseminate findingsO Brochure directed to boat owners written with DRNA raise concern and educate O Local and international tourists O Sailors O Local community
Potential benefitsO With data from this research it may be possible to predict the disappearance of an island with ecological importance and high ecotourism value.O Findings from this project could be used for the development of new long-term management strategies.