The Black SwanBook PresentationPresentation by Pradeep
“The world will not evolve past its current state of crises by using the samethinking that created the situation” ….. Albe...
Music                                   Theme     Irregular          Risk           Fracture                     Noise  Di...
Connect the dots                   Pradeep-XYZ
Contents   What is a Black Swan ?   The World Today   Problem of induction and biases   We just can’t predict   Aesth...
What is a Black swan ?   History behind the title (Once upon a time in Europe)   Highly improbable (difficult to predict...
Examples   9/11   Oct. 19, 1987   Harry Potter   Computer   Internet   iPod (10 years back)   Google(15 years back)...
The world today   Extremistan Vs Mediocristan1   The Flat World (Globalised and interconnected with Web)   Recursive (T...
Mediocristan Vs Extremistan     Mild Randomness         Wild Randomness     [ Height, Weight, IQ]      [ Wealth, Book Sale...
Problem of induction                       Pradeep-XYZ
Biases    Behavioral Economists- irrationality (Daniel Kahneman    and Amos Tversky1)    Confirmation bias2    Narrativ...
System 1 and System 2 (Biases)   System 1 : Experiential one, effortless, automatic, fast,    Opaque, parallel-processed ...
Economist.com – what’s your choice ?                      Pradeep-XYZ
Economist.com- what’s wrong ?                     Pradeep-XYZ
Narrative fallacy (Biases)               A BIRD IN THE             THE HAND IS WORTH              TWO IN THE BUSH         ...
We just cant predict   Examples   Track record – Philip Tetlock’s research1 and WWII   Attitude towards prediction2 ? (...
Examples on prediction errors   Computer (IBM)   Telephone   Beatles (expectation)   Recent economic recession   Tsun...
“This telephone has too many shortcomings to be seriously consideredas a means of communication. The device is inherently ...
“I think there’s a world market for maybe five computers.”            (Thomas Watson, Chairman of IBM, 1943)              ...
"Everything that can be invented has been invented." -- Charles H. Duell,  Commissioner, U.S. Office of Patents, 1899.    ...
“We don’t like their sound and guitar music is on the way out.”         (Decca Recording Company rejecting the Beatles, 19...
Aesthetics of randomness   From Mediocristan to Extremistan   Challenges with Bell-curve   Fractal Geometry (aka Geomet...
Mediocristan to Extremistan   The economics of superstars1   Cumulative advantage (Academic citations)   Lingua franca2...
The aesthetics of randomness   Benoit Mandelbrot ( Rock star of Mathematics- Author-    (Mis) behavior of markets)   Fra...
Pradeep-XYZ
Pradeep-XYZ
Fractals captured in camera…                               Pradeep-XYZ
Indian Temples                 Pradeep-XYZ
Animated fractal mountain                            Pradeep-XYZ
The End“Our knowledge can only be finite, while our ignorance  must necessarily be infinite.”…Karl Popper                 ...
Appendix       Pradeep-XYZ
What to do when you can’t predict ?   Being a fool in the right places (be human)   Be prepared (Barbell strategy)   Th...
Time Scale             Pradeep-XYZ
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The black swan Book Presentation

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The black swan Book Presentation

  1. 1. The Black SwanBook PresentationPresentation by Pradeep
  2. 2. “The world will not evolve past its current state of crises by using the samethinking that created the situation” ….. Albert Einstein Pradeep-XYZ
  3. 3. Music Theme Irregular Risk Fracture Noise Disorder Imperfect Chaos Crises Failure Complex Roughness Unknown Error Irrational err… Unlucky Pradeep-XYZ
  4. 4. Connect the dots Pradeep-XYZ
  5. 5. Contents What is a Black Swan ? The World Today Problem of induction and biases We just can’t predict Aesthetics of randomness Conclusion- Lessons from The Black Swan Pradeep-XYZ
  6. 6. What is a Black swan ? History behind the title (Once upon a time in Europe) Highly improbable (difficult to predict- an outlier) Highly Consequential Retrospective ( see it coming!) Pradeep-XYZ
  7. 7. Examples 9/11 Oct. 19, 1987 Harry Potter Computer Internet iPod (10 years back) Google(15 years back) Pradeep-XYZ
  8. 8. The world today Extremistan Vs Mediocristan1 The Flat World (Globalised and interconnected with Web) Recursive (The Harry Potter effect) Pradeep-XYZ
  9. 9. Mediocristan Vs Extremistan Mild Randomness Wild Randomness [ Height, Weight, IQ] [ Wealth, Book Sales, Hits] Pradeep-XYZ
  10. 10. Problem of induction Pradeep-XYZ
  11. 11. Biases Behavioral Economists- irrationality (Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky1) Confirmation bias2 Narrative fallacy3 Silent evidence Fight with the pecking order Ludic fallacy4 Pradeep-XYZ
  12. 12. System 1 and System 2 (Biases) System 1 : Experiential one, effortless, automatic, fast, Opaque, parallel-processed and can lend itself to errors System 2 : the cognitive one (thinking), reasoned, effortful, slow, logical, serial and self aware Pradeep-XYZ
  13. 13. Economist.com – what’s your choice ? Pradeep-XYZ
  14. 14. Economist.com- what’s wrong ? Pradeep-XYZ
  15. 15. Narrative fallacy (Biases) A BIRD IN THE THE HAND IS WORTH TWO IN THE BUSH Pradeep-XYZ
  16. 16. We just cant predict Examples Track record – Philip Tetlock’s research1 and WWII Attitude towards prediction2 ? (I don’t know Vs Guesstimation) Tools of predictions (Bell curve-extremistan and Spreadsheet- anchoring) Serendipitous world (Sextus empiricus) & Complex world (Sensex and Swine flu) What to do when you can’t predict ? Pradeep-XYZ
  17. 17. Examples on prediction errors Computer (IBM) Telephone Beatles (expectation) Recent economic recession Tsunami Charles Darwin’s “The origin of species” paper Pradeep-XYZ
  18. 18. “This telephone has too many shortcomings to be seriously consideredas a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us.” (Western Union memo, 1876) Pradeep-XYZ
  19. 19. “I think there’s a world market for maybe five computers.” (Thomas Watson, Chairman of IBM, 1943) Pradeep-XYZ
  20. 20. "Everything that can be invented has been invented." -- Charles H. Duell, Commissioner, U.S. Office of Patents, 1899. Pradeep-XYZ
  21. 21. “We don’t like their sound and guitar music is on the way out.” (Decca Recording Company rejecting the Beatles, 1962) Pradeep-XYZ
  22. 22. Aesthetics of randomness From Mediocristan to Extremistan Challenges with Bell-curve Fractal Geometry (aka Geometry of nature) Pradeep-XYZ
  23. 23. Mediocristan to Extremistan The economics of superstars1 Cumulative advantage (Academic citations) Lingua franca2 (Zipf’s law) The Long Tail- Chris Anderson Globalisation (Reason behind recent recession ?) Pradeep-XYZ
  24. 24. The aesthetics of randomness Benoit Mandelbrot ( Rock star of Mathematics- Author- (Mis) behavior of markets) Fractal Geometry or Geometry of Nature (irregularity, Chaos ) What’s common (Connect Dots ?) (Music, Literature, Markets, Sociology, Temples, Nature, Star wars graphics) Symmetry, Scalable2 , exponential1 80/20 or 50/01 Pradeep-XYZ
  25. 25. Pradeep-XYZ
  26. 26. Pradeep-XYZ
  27. 27. Fractals captured in camera… Pradeep-XYZ
  28. 28. Indian Temples Pradeep-XYZ
  29. 29. Animated fractal mountain Pradeep-XYZ
  30. 30. The End“Our knowledge can only be finite, while our ignorance must necessarily be infinite.”…Karl Popper Pradeep-XYZ
  31. 31. Appendix Pradeep-XYZ
  32. 32. What to do when you can’t predict ? Being a fool in the right places (be human) Be prepared (Barbell strategy) The idea of positive accident (love to fail as Americans do) Pradeep-XYZ
  33. 33. Time Scale Pradeep-XYZ

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