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Behavioural insght and policy, David Halpern


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Behavioural insght and policy, David Halpern

  1. 1. Behavioural insight & policyD a v id H a lp e r nNo10 / Cabinet Office19th March 2011 1
  2. 2. Behavioural insight is one of severalnew emphases in government thinking Well-being Cost efficiency Behavioural insights Big Society & Transparency decentralisatio & payment by n results UNCLASSIFIED 2
  3. 3. Coalition agreement “There has been the assumption that central government can only change people’s behaviour through rules and regulations. Our government will be a much smarter one, shunning the bureaucratic levers of the past and finding intelligent ways to encourage support and enable people to make better choices for themselves.” UNCLASSIFIED 3
  4. 4. The Behavioural Insight Team Steering Board Jeremy Heywood (No10) Steve Hilton / Rohan Silva (PM) Polly Mackenzie / Julian A (DPM) Robert Devereux (Head of Policy Profession) Advisory Panel Gus O’Donnell (tbc) Richard Thaler (Chicago) Peter Tufano (Oxford) Theresa Marteau (Cambridge) BIT Julian Le Grand (LSE) David Halpern (Director) Peter John (UCL) OGDs Owain Service (DD) + 6 Nick Chater (Warwick) Dan Goldstein (LBS) OCS / ERG Well-being UNCLASSIFIED agenda
  7. 7. Health: behavioural factors explain the majority of years of healthy life lost Tobacco 12.2% High blood pressure 10.9% Alcohol 9.2% C holesterol 7.6% Overweight 7.4% Low fruit and 3.9% vegetable intake Physical inactivity 3.3% Illicit drugs 1.8% Unsafe sex 0.8% Iron deficiency 0.7% 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 UNCLASSIFIED 7WHO, 2000
  8. 8. Information is generally not the problem % Obese % Overweight % Obese What do you think ‘eating a healthy diet’ involves? Eating more fruit and vegetables Germany England Cyprus Germany 77% Czech Finland UK 70% Malta ** Slovakia Neth 61% Latvia Hungary Ireland 59% Ireland UK Spain Sweden 59% Greece Women Slovenia* Men EU 25 58% Luxembour Estonia ** Spain 49% Lithuania** Austria France 44% Belgium Netherlands Italy 35% Sweden Denmark France ** Italy -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100Fisher & Fisher, 1992; Psychological Bulletin UNCLASSIFIEDEurobarometer 64.3 2005. Base c1,000 interviews in each country
  10. 10. Social norms to encourage tax payment UNCLASSIFIED 10
  11. 11. Taking out ‘friction costs’ to driveinsulation UNCLASSIFIED 11
  12. 12. Personalised texts for fines UNCLASSIFIED 12
  13. 13. Commitment devices used to reduce ‘didnot attends’Reducing NHS Bedford‘Did not attends’Active commitment = filling out your own appointment card and repeating back the time and date(Also included norms, displaying the number of people who turned upon time) UNCLASSIFIED 13
  14. 14. Sorting out unlicensed cars UNCLASSIFIED 14
  15. 15. Big policy issues – not just marginal Economic growth Reduced regulation Social mobility Crime Health ‘Big Society’ UNCLASSIFIED 15
  16. 16. Well-being and harnessing the ‘hidden wealth of nations’ UNCLASSIFIED 16
  17. 17. ...economic growth is a means to an end. If your goal in politics is to help make a better life for people – which mine is – and if you know, both in your gut and from a huge body of evidence that prosperity alone can’t deliver a better life, then you’ve got to take practical steps to make sure government is properly focused on our quality of life as well as economic growth, and that is what we are trying to do. 25th November 2010UNCLASSIFIED
  18. 18. Measuring subjective wellbeingONS is sampling 200,000 Britons to ask: - How satisfied are you with your life nowadays? - How happy did you feel yesterday? - How anxious did you feel yesterday? - To what extent do you feel the things you do in your life are worthwhile?Plus dashboard complement to GDP; Green Book changes;and ‘social value’ test UNCLASSIFIED 18
  19. 19. Rich nations are happier... UNCLASSIFIED
  20. 20. A key puzzle is why our life satisfaction is notincreasing UNCLASSIFIED 20
  21. 21. The Easterlin paradox UNCLASSIFIED 21
  22. 22. A c r o s s U K : s a t is f ie d in S e ve no a ks . Top 10 Bottom 10 % Very Satisfied with Life % Very Satisfied with Life Sevenoaks 37 Huntingdonshire 9 Chester 28 South Derbyshire 10 South Cambridge 28 Havering 10 Teignbridge 27 Luton 11 Rutland 27 Kingston upon Hull 11 Tonbridge & Malling 25 Salford 11 Bristol 25 East Ayrshire 11 Aberdeen 25 Sheffield 12 Warwick 24 Waltham Forest 12 Cardiff 24 Life Carlisle 12 From Whitely et al, 2004 22UNCLASSIFIED
  23. 23. A wide variety of factors are associated with SWB– though the causality is sometimes complex UNCLASSIFIED
  24. 24. Social networks matterMeta analysis: comparative odds of decreased mortality LGID: Wellbeing - why bother? UNCLASSIFIED 24 Source: Holt-Lundstad et al 2010
  25. 25. The formal economy is only a part of our lives The ‘economy of regard’ is 1400 at least big as the ’real Sleep economy’ 1200 Sleep 1000 Med, education Out leisure, shops Medical, education 800 Sport, shopping, Home leisure travel nutrition Shelter, 600 Services (upper) We spend on 23% of our Home leisure Services (other) waking time in paid work 400 Manual down 1hr 15min from Shelter, nutrition 1960’s – with clear 200 evidence of convergence Professional services Other services across class Manual 0 1961 1983 2001 UNCLASSIFIED Data from Geshunny, UK time budget studies; Halpern, 2010 Source:
  26. 26. Across the world, most dramatic transformations ofpublic services harness ‘hidden wealth’ Sweden Patient Hotels Singapore Yellow Ribbon program London UNCLASSIFIED 10% vs 79% recidivism 26
  27. 27. Conclusions UNCLASSIFIED 27
  28. 28. Media - wary early on“DavidCameron’sVanity Project” UNCLASSIFIED 28
  29. 29. Media has become supportive UNCLASSIFIED
  30. 30. ConclusionsBehavioural insights offer practical, low cost policy toolsWell-being data will raise the profile of ‘social’ driversUse experimental approach UNCLASSIFIED 30
  31. 31. UNCLASSIFIED 31
  32. 32. AnnexUNCLASSIFIED 32
  33. 33. Defaults are the most famous of a growingrange of applications UNCLASSIFIED 33
  34. 34. Salience, social norms and ego to reduceenergy consumption UNCLASSIFIED 34
  35. 35. Priming of honesty and consistency toincrease declarations A study in the US found that moving signatureboxes to the beginning ofapplication forms primed customers to increaseself-reported miles driven by 10%. Signed at UNCLASSIFIED Signed at end beginning of of form form
  36. 36. Experiments in giving (restaurant) UNCLASSIFIED 36
  37. 37. MINDSPACE is being widely applied...Messenger We are heavily influenced by who communicates information Our responses to incentives are shaped by predictable mental shortcuts such as stronglyIncentives avoiding lossesNorms We are strongly influenced by what others doDefaults We ‘go with the flow’ of pre-set optionsSalience Our attention is drawn to what is novel and seems relevant to usPriming Our acts are often influenced by sub-conscious cuesAffect Our emotional associations can powerfully shape our actionsCommitment We seek to be consistent with our public promises, and reciprocate actsEgo We act in ways that make us feel better about ourselves UNCLASSIFIED 37
  38. 38. Life satisfaction 1981-2007Ingelhart et al 2008 UNCLASSIFIED 38
  39. 39. Percent ‘Very happy’ 1981-2007Ingelhart et al 2008 UNCLASSIFIED 39
  40. 40. Social trust (national trends) 80 High Sweden trust Norway Denmark Increasing Netherlands 60 Finland1997-2001 Iceland Japan 40 Spain Australia N.Ire W.Ger Italy Ireland USA Mexico Belgium S.Kor UK France 20 Argentina S.Africa Decreasing Low trust 0 0 20 40 60 80 1981-3 UNCLASSIFIED