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Solar radiation forecasting with WRF model in                the Iberian Peninsula               L. Martín, J. Polo, L.F.Z...
Outlook1. Motivation and objectives2. ECMWF ERA-40 validation3. WRF validation4. Synoptic situation: comparison   of ECMWF...
Motivation and objectivesThe need to characterize and predict solar radiation as a solar resource is    legislated in Spai...
ECMWF ERA-40 VALIDATION                                                     •Data Period:                                 ...
ECMWF ERA-40 Daily ValidationW/m2h                          W/m2h                                               W/m2h     ...
ECMWF ERA-40 Daily Validation Granada                                              MBD:-21.67%                            ...
Oviedo                   ECMWF ERA-40 Daily Validation                                                     MBD:-7.52%     ...
WRF DAILY & HOURLY  VALIDATION                                                            •Reanalisys with WRF            ...
WRF RESULTS: HOURLY                        M B E Hourly S olar R adiation F orec as ting2015                              ...
WRF RESULTS: DAILY                            M B E Daily S olar R adiation F orec as ting        20        15            ...
SINOPTIC SITUATION                                     22/2/2005CI from Meteosat 12:00              Albedo                ...
Conclusions ECMWF ERA-40 understimates daily solar irradiance.  Errors are quite high. Analisys errors of WRF model goes...
Thank you for your attention4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007        EUROSUN 2008, Lisbon, October 2008
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Solar radiation forecasting with wrf model in the iberian peninsula

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Solar radiation forecasting with wrf model in the iberian peninsula

  1. 1. Solar radiation forecasting with WRF model in the Iberian Peninsula L. Martín, J. Polo, L.F.Zarzalejo, A. Navarro Energy department CIEMAT R. Marchante Investigaciones y Recursos Solares Avanzados IRSOLAV (www.irsolav.com) E. Lorenz, A. Sood, K. Suselj Oldenburg University, Germany Energy and Semiconductor Research Laboratory Energy Meteorology Group4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007
  2. 2. Outlook1. Motivation and objectives2. ECMWF ERA-40 validation3. WRF validation4. Synoptic situation: comparison of ECMWF and WRF models5. Conclusions4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36Lisbon, October 2008 EUROSUN 2008, Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007 2
  3. 3. Motivation and objectivesThe need to characterize and predict solar radiation as a solar resource is legislated in Spain by different Royal decrees (RD 436/2004 661/2007).Solar thermal and photovoltaic plants operator will compete in energy stock market. There are two basic rules in the market. Objectives  Validate ECMWF ERA-40  Global Model.  Validate Anailsys Mesoescale WRF Model predictions with hourly resolution. 4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007 EUROSUN 2008, Lisbon, October 2008
  4. 4. ECMWF ERA-40 VALIDATION •Data Period: 1994-2004 ten years. •Daily Goblal Solar Radiation •Resolution 1º ≈ 100Km •Ground measurements from National Radiometric Network from AEMet. •CM11 pyranometer •Data filtered BSRN recomendations4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007 4 EUROSUN 2008, Lisbon, October 2008
  5. 5. ECMWF ERA-40 Daily ValidationW/m2h W/m2h W/m2h W/m2h 4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007 EUROSUN 2008, Lisbon, October 2008
  6. 6. ECMWF ERA-40 Daily Validation Granada MBD:-21.67% RMSD:27.20%W/m2h W/m2hW/m2h W/m2h 4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007 W/m2h EUROSUN 2008, Lisbon, October 2008
  7. 7. Oviedo ECMWF ERA-40 Daily Validation MBD:-7.52% RMSD:39.55%W/m2h W/m2h W/m2h W/m2h 4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 2Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007 W/m h
  8. 8. WRF DAILY & HOURLY VALIDATION •Reanalisys with WRF over Europe domain with 3 nesting levels. •Initial conditions GFS. •Goblal Solar Radiation •Data Period 2005: 1/1/2005 – 28/2/2005 •Spatial resolution 27km •Temporal resolution 1h 65 60 55 50 45 404th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 8
  9. 9. WRF RESULTS: HOURLY M B E Hourly S olar R adiation F orec as ting2015 Normalized RMSD R M S E H ourly S olar Radiation F orec as ting 10010 90 5 80 0 70 -5 60-10 % RM S E 50-15 40-20 Lower to higher latitude 30-25 20 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 Latitude 10 Normalized MBD 0 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 Latitude 4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007 9 EUROSUN 2008, Lisbon, October 2008
  10. 10. WRF RESULTS: DAILY M B E Daily S olar R adiation F orec as ting 20 15 Normalized RMSD RM S E D aily S olar R adiation F orec as ting 90 10 5 80 0 70% MBE -5 60 -10 50 % RM S E -15 40 -20 30 -25 20 -30 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 Latitude 10 Normalized MBD 0 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 Latitude 4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007 W/m2h 10 EUROSUN 2008, Lisbon, October 2008
  11. 11. SINOPTIC SITUATION 22/2/2005CI from Meteosat 12:00 Albedo Granada W/m2 ECMWF Operational Model 12:00 ECMWF Mask L/O Oviedo W/m2 4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007 11 EUROSUN 2008, Lisbon, October 2008
  12. 12. Conclusions ECMWF ERA-40 understimates daily solar irradiance. Errors are quite high. Analisys errors of WRF model goes from 30-98% RMSD hourly and from 23-89% daily. WRF fed with NCEP data doesn’t reproduce synoptic situations. Further improvement using data from ECMWF. Cloud movement is a dynamic chaotic system. A paradigm based on deterministic (NWP) and probabilistic (Statistic). RD 661/2007 needs hourly predictions with errors lower than 20%. 4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007 EUROSUN 2008, Lisbon, October 2008
  13. 13. Thank you for your attention4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007 EUROSUN 2008, Lisbon, October 2008

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