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Evaluation of wrf and ecmwf forecasts for spain iea 4th ciemat v2

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Evaluation of wrf and ecmwf forecasts for spain iea 4th ciemat v2

  1. 1. Evaluation of WRF and ECMWF forecasts for Spain L. Ramírez, J. Polo, L.F.Zarzalejo, L. Martín, A. Navarro, J. Navarro, P. Jiménez, A. Araujo, E. Garcia-Bustamante CIEMAT (Energy department – Solar Platform of Almería) E. Lorenz, A. Sood, K. Suselj Oldenburg University, Germany Energy and Semiconductor Research Laboratory Energy Meteorology Group4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007
  2. 2. Objetive1. Validate ECMWF Analisis Data (ERA-40)  Global Model.2. ERA-40 is used as initial conditions for Mesoescale Models for dynamic downscaling.3. Validate Mesoescale Model with higher temporal and spatial resolution.4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007
  3. 3. ECMWF ERA-40 VALIDATION •Data Period: 1994-2004 •Reanalisis data of daily Goblal Solar Radiation •Global Model •Resolution 1º ≈ 100Km4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007 3
  4. 4. ECMWF ERA-40 Daily Validation4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007
  5. 5. ECMWF ERA-40 Daily Validation4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007
  6. 6. ECMWF ERA-40 Daily Validation Granada MBE:-21.67% RMSE:27.20%4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007
  7. 7. Oviedo ECMWF ERA-40 Daily Validation MBE:-7.52% RMSE:39.55%4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007
  8. 8. WRF DAILY & HOURLY VALIDATION •Data Period: 1/1/2005 – 28/2/2005 •#Data: 59 days of data 1416 values. •Reanalisys of Hourly Goblal Solar Radiation •Domain Europe •Resolution 27km 65 60 55 50 45 404th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 8
  9. 9. WRF RESULTS: HOURLY M B E Hourly S olar R adiation F orec as ting201510 RM S E H ourly S olar Radiation F orec as ting 100 5 90 0 80 -5 70-10 60 % RM S E-15 50 40-20 30-25 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 Latitude 20 10 0 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 Latitude 4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007 9
  10. 10. WRF RESULTS: DAILY MBE Daily Solar Radiation Forecasting 20 15 10 5 0% MBE -5 -10 -15 -20 RMSE Daily Solar Radiation Forecasting 90 -25 80 -30 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 Latitude 70 60 50 % RMSE 40 30 20 10 4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007 0 10 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44
  11. 11. HOURLY VALIDATION: GRANADA 37.14º800700600500400300200100 0-010 0 5 00 1 0 00 1 0 50 MBE: 7.46% RMSE: 34.39% 4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007 11
  12. 12. DAILY VALIDATION: GRANADA 37.14º Daily Solar Radiation Forecasting MBE:9.14% RMSE:24.36%4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007 12
  13. 13. HOURLY VALIDATION:700 OVIEDO 43.35º600500400300200100 0-010 0 5 00 1 0 00 1 0 50 MBE: -14.56% RMSE: 75.45% 4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007 13
  14. 14. DAILY VALIDATION: OVIEDO 43.35º Daily Solar Radiation Forecasting MBE: -16.01% RMSE: 64.01%4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007 14
  15. 15. 1/2/2005 SINOPTIC SITUATION 1 12:00CI FROM SATELLITE Granada ALBEDO WRF GHi MAP WRF LAND/SEA Oviedo 4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007 15
  16. 16. 6/2/2005 SINOPTIC SITUATION 2 12:00CI FROM SATELLITE Granada ALBEDO WRF GHi MAP WRF LAND/SEA Oviedo 4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007 16
  17. 17. 9/2/2005 SINOPTIC SITUATION 3 12:00CI FROM SATELLITE Granada ALBEDO WRF GHi MAP WRF LAND/SEA Oviedo 4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007 17
  18. 18. 22/2/2005 SINOPTIC SITUATION 4 12:00CI FROM SATELLITE Granada ALBEDO WRF GHi MAP WRF LAND/SEA Oviedo 4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007 18
  19. 19. Thank you4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007

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