When the world is changing rapidly and unpredictably, when causes and effects are unfathomable and disproportionate, and when things are seldom quite what they seem, what is there for decision-makers to anchor their reasoning to?
Volatility: "Black swan" events – banking crises, social upheaval, natural catastrophes, etc. – are occurring more frequently.
Uncertainty: Uncertainty is making it increasingly hard to predict the future and undermining the authority of the most respected forecasters.
Complexity: With interconnected economies and businesses, and more communicative societies, it is hard to connect causes to effects.
Ambiguity: The confusion of causes and effects makes it more difficult to determine the significance of events and their implications.
2012 04 19 Luis Madureira Innovation for APPM
Consumption Development Innovation LUIS MADUREIRA Head of Innovation & Intelligence
Hart do determine the SIGNIFICANCE of events... ...and their IMPLICATIONS
“SMART DOWNTRADER SHOPPER” has born » Buys Premium Brands only when recognizes its added value » Opts for Value for Money for the rest » Urban with distinct family structures » Social Classes no longer a segmentation criteria » Buys FMCG in Modern Distribution » Increase Frequency but lowers quantity per buying act » Less Out-of-Home dining. » Represents 57% from Portuguese homes.
“Knowledge starts with the definition of terms”
CONSUMPTIONPenetration x Frequency x Quantity BUT ALWAYS a function of CONSUMER NEEDS and DESIRES
Steve Jobs“It is not the customer’s job to know what they want”