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LEARN LIKE
A SCIENTIST:
YOUR FIRST
EXPERIMENT
@cyetain
Joshua (Jabe) Bloom
CTO:

&

blog http://jabe.co
Send Anonymous Feedback

http://sayat.me/jabebloom
@cyetain
@cyetain
#lkce13
@cyetain
@cyetain
Qualities and
Assumptions of
Science

@cyetain
Demarcation
Pseudoscience

@cyetain

Scientism
If It Is Scientific,
You Can Show Me
How You Did It
and We Can See
If I can Repeat It.
@cyetain
Baloney Detection Kit
Wherever possible there must be independent confirmation of the facts.

!

Encourage substantive deb...
Criteria
of
Truth
@cyetain
Lousy Criteria
Authority
Custom
Emotions
Naïve Realism

@cyetain
The truths science attempts
to reveal about atoms and
the solar system and even
about microbes and
bacteria would still be...
Veritas est adaequatio
rei et intellectus
A judgment is said to be
true when it conforms
to the external reality
!

-Thoma...
[Abduction] goes upon the hope that
there is sufficient affinity between the
reasoner's mind and nature's to render
guessi...
That's the whole point to the
Scientific Method. It can never
actually verif truth, but it can
y
show what is not true.
!
...
that which does not
work is not true
!

-William Ernest Hocking

@cyetain
Fallibility

@cyetain
Rationality
Pieces of behaviour, beliefs,
arguments, policies, and other
exercises of the human mind may all
be described ...
@cyetain
Abduction
not just for

Aliens

@cyetain
@@cyetain
cyetain
Analogue
The Way
Humans Think

Probability

Binary
The Way
Computers "Think"

@cyetain

ABDUCE

Plausible Justifiable

IND...
Parsimony
Occam’s Razor

@cyetain
@cyetain
Inspiration
Exploration
Testing
Collaboration
Exploitation
@cyetain
Inspiration
New Technology, New
Problems, Personal
Practice, Managed
Serendipity
!

Surprise
@cyetain
Exploration
Observations,
Research,
Questioning,
Collaboration
@cyetain
Testing
Hypothesis
Generation, Defining
Expectation,
Experimentation

@cyetain
Collaboration
Explanation, Conversation,
Interpretation,
Challenging, Peer
Reviewing, Repeating/
Validating

@cyetain
Exploitation
$$, Solve Problems,
Make the World Better,
Delight Customers

@cyetain
Scientific examination
arises out of, and is
dependent upon, a previous,
or an ontologically prior
praxis context.
-Ihde
@...
Exp

Exploitation
atio
n
ation
abor
oll
ting
C
Tes
Inspiration
@cyetain

lor
What Do
Knowledge Workers
Use Science For?

@cyetain
Scientific Realism
vs
Instrumentalism

@cyetain
Pragmatic
Economic
Instrumentalist

@cyetain
@cyetain
Guess -> Knowledge
!

Knowledge to Profit
!

Canaries
@cyetain
Improve
collaboratively, evolve
experimentally, using
models and the
scientific method

@cyetain
The link between objective
truth and inter-subjective
agreement is so strong that
the former is difficult to
defend when t...
Your First
Experiments

@cyetain
SAFETY RULES

@cyetain
Safe-To-Fail

@cyetain

First Don’t Do
(too much) Harm
Turn
Commitments
into Options
(bring a rope)

@cyetain
There is no surer
way to screw up
an experiment
than to be certain
of its outcome.
!

-Stuart Firestein
@cyetain
Experiences

ABDUCE

Hypothesises

If Coherent

DEDUCE

Expected
Outcomes

If Expected Outcomes
Match Reality

INDUCE

@cy...
Build

Learn

@cyetain

Measure
Build

Learn

@cyetain

Measure
LeanUX
New Product Dev

@cyetain
Problem
Hypothesis

@cyetain
Problem
Hypothesis

Customer
Hypothesis

@cyetain
Problem
Hypothesis

Customer
Hypothesis

@cyetain

Solution
Hypothesis
WHY?
Assumptions

Problem
Hypothesis

Customer
Hypothesis

@cyetain

Assumptions

Solution
Hypothesis

Assumptions
Which of these
Assumptions MUST be
True for my model to
be coherent?
@cyetain
How can I
invalidate these
assumptions?
@cyetain
Write Down What You
Think Will Happen
BEFORE You DO It.
!

Show it to your peers.
!

Honestly PUBLICLY
Examine Your Result...
Joshua (Jabe) Bloom
CTO : The Library Corporation
& TLC Labs
http://tlclabs.co
blog http://blog.jabebloom.com

!
!

Send A...
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LEARN LIKE A SCIENTIST: YOUR FIRST EXPERIMENT (JABE BLOOM) - LKCE13

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A3, PDCA and the Build Measure Learn loop (to name a few loops) are all informed by experimentation. Kanban embraces the scientific method explicitly; "Improve Collaboratively (using models & the scientific method)" and Lean implementations can be more effectively supported by a sound understanding of the philosophy of science and proper experimental design. This presentation will briefly explore the basics of the scientific method, including deductive, inductive and abductive logic, probability, parsimony, and hypothesis testing. Through a series of group exercises, the audience will grapple with the concepts and return home ready to create an execute their first scientific experiment.

LEARN LIKE A SCIENTIST: YOUR FIRST EXPERIMENT (JABE BLOOM) - LKCE13

  1. 1. LEARN LIKE A SCIENTIST: YOUR FIRST EXPERIMENT @cyetain
  2. 2. Joshua (Jabe) Bloom CTO: & blog http://jabe.co Send Anonymous Feedback http://sayat.me/jabebloom @cyetain
  3. 3. @cyetain #lkce13 @cyetain
  4. 4. @cyetain
  5. 5. Qualities and Assumptions of Science @cyetain
  6. 6. Demarcation Pseudoscience @cyetain Scientism
  7. 7. If It Is Scientific, You Can Show Me How You Did It and We Can See If I can Repeat It. @cyetain
  8. 8. Baloney Detection Kit Wherever possible there must be independent confirmation of the facts. ! Encourage substantive debate on the evidence by knowledgeable proponents of all points of view. ! Arguments from authority carry little weight (in science there are no "authorities"). ! Spin more than one hypothesis - don't simply run with the first idea that caught your fancy. ! Try not to get overly attached to a hypothesis just because it's yours. ! Quantify, wherever possible. ! If there is a chain of argument every link in the chain must work. ! Occam's razor - if there are two hypotheses that explain the data equally well choose the simpler. ! Ask whether the hypothesis can, at least in principle, be falsified (shown to be false by some unambiguous test). In other words, it is testable? Can others duplicate the experiment and get the same result? Carl Sagan http://jabe.co/BaloneyKit @cyetain
  9. 9. Criteria of Truth @cyetain
  10. 10. Lousy Criteria Authority Custom Emotions Naïve Realism @cyetain
  11. 11. The truths science attempts to reveal about atoms and the solar system and even about microbes and bacteria would still be true even if human beings had never existed ! -Anthony O'Hear @cyetain
  12. 12. Veritas est adaequatio rei et intellectus A judgment is said to be true when it conforms to the external reality ! -Thomas Aquinas @cyetain
  13. 13. [Abduction] goes upon the hope that there is sufficient affinity between the reasoner's mind and nature's to render guessing not altogether hopeless, provided each guess is checked by comparison with observation... The eff ort should theref ore be to make each hypothesis... as near an even bet as possible. -Charles Peirce @cyetain
  14. 14. That's the whole point to the Scientific Method. It can never actually verif truth, but it can y show what is not true. ! -Jim Haines @cyetain
  15. 15. that which does not work is not true ! -William Ernest Hocking @cyetain
  16. 16. Fallibility @cyetain
  17. 17. Rationality Pieces of behaviour, beliefs, arguments, policies, and other exercises of the human mind may all be described as rational. To accept something as rational is to accept it as making sense, as appropriate, or required, or in accordance with some acknowledged goal, such as aiming at truth or aiming at the good -Blackburn @cyetain
  18. 18. @cyetain
  19. 19. Abduction not just for Aliens @cyetain @@cyetain cyetain
  20. 20. Analogue The Way Humans Think Probability Binary The Way Computers "Think" @cyetain ABDUCE Plausible Justifiable INDUCE Probable DEDUCE Predictive
  21. 21. Parsimony Occam’s Razor @cyetain
  22. 22. @cyetain
  23. 23. Inspiration Exploration Testing Collaboration Exploitation @cyetain
  24. 24. Inspiration New Technology, New Problems, Personal Practice, Managed Serendipity ! Surprise @cyetain
  25. 25. Exploration Observations, Research, Questioning, Collaboration @cyetain
  26. 26. Testing Hypothesis Generation, Defining Expectation, Experimentation @cyetain
  27. 27. Collaboration Explanation, Conversation, Interpretation, Challenging, Peer Reviewing, Repeating/ Validating @cyetain
  28. 28. Exploitation $$, Solve Problems, Make the World Better, Delight Customers @cyetain
  29. 29. Scientific examination arises out of, and is dependent upon, a previous, or an ontologically prior praxis context. -Ihde @cyetain
  30. 30. Exp Exploitation atio n ation abor oll ting C Tes Inspiration @cyetain lor
  31. 31. What Do Knowledge Workers Use Science For? @cyetain
  32. 32. Scientific Realism vs Instrumentalism @cyetain
  33. 33. Pragmatic Economic Instrumentalist @cyetain
  34. 34. @cyetain
  35. 35. Guess -> Knowledge ! Knowledge to Profit ! Canaries @cyetain
  36. 36. Improve collaboratively, evolve experimentally, using models and the scientific method @cyetain
  37. 37. The link between objective truth and inter-subjective agreement is so strong that the former is difficult to defend when the latter fails. ! -Hugh G. Gauch, Jr @cyetain
  38. 38. Your First Experiments @cyetain
  39. 39. SAFETY RULES @cyetain
  40. 40. Safe-To-Fail @cyetain First Don’t Do (too much) Harm
  41. 41. Turn Commitments into Options (bring a rope) @cyetain
  42. 42. There is no surer way to screw up an experiment than to be certain of its outcome. ! -Stuart Firestein @cyetain
  43. 43. Experiences ABDUCE Hypothesises If Coherent DEDUCE Expected Outcomes If Expected Outcomes Match Reality INDUCE @cyetain @cyetain Effective Match
  44. 44. Build Learn @cyetain Measure
  45. 45. Build Learn @cyetain Measure
  46. 46. LeanUX New Product Dev @cyetain
  47. 47. Problem Hypothesis @cyetain
  48. 48. Problem Hypothesis Customer Hypothesis @cyetain
  49. 49. Problem Hypothesis Customer Hypothesis @cyetain Solution Hypothesis
  50. 50. WHY? Assumptions Problem Hypothesis Customer Hypothesis @cyetain Assumptions Solution Hypothesis Assumptions
  51. 51. Which of these Assumptions MUST be True for my model to be coherent? @cyetain
  52. 52. How can I invalidate these assumptions? @cyetain
  53. 53. Write Down What You Think Will Happen BEFORE You DO It. ! Show it to your peers. ! Honestly PUBLICLY Examine Your Results @cyetain
  54. 54. Joshua (Jabe) Bloom CTO : The Library Corporation & TLC Labs http://tlclabs.co blog http://blog.jabebloom.com ! ! Send Anonymous Feedback http://sayat.me/jabebloom @cyetain

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