Enterprise projects are known to have challenges with uncertainty, risk, forecasting and commitment – and the most valuable projects often carry the most risk. Other industries also encounter risk and generate value by understanding and managing that risk effectively. Todd Little explores techniques used in a number of risky businesses – product development, oil and gas exploration, investment banking, medicine, weather forecasting, and gambling – and shares what those industries have done to manage uncertainty.
LKCE19 - Todd Little - Risky Business: Real Options for Business Agility
Risky Business: Real Options for Business Agility
Todd Little, Chairman Kanban University @toddelittle
Managing Enterprise Agility
When will we get the requirements?
All in good time, my little pretty, all in good time
But I guess it doesn't matter anyway
Doesn't anybody believe me?
You're a very bad man!
Just give me your estimates by this afternoon
No, we need something today!
I already promised the customer it will be out in 6 months
No, we need it sooner.
Not so fast! Not so fast! ... I'll have to give the matter a little
thought. Go away and come back tomorrow
Ok then, it will take 2 years.
We’re not in Kansas Anymore
My! People come and go so quickly here!
I may not come out alive, but I'm goin' in there!
The Great and Powerful Oz has got matters well in hand.
"Hee hee hee ha ha! Going so soon? I wouldn't
hear of it! Why, my little party's just beginning!
How do businesses deal with
risk and uncertainty?
Bad Strategies (Rumelt)
Failure to face the problem
Mistaking goals for strategy
Fuzzy or overly complex strategic objectives
“increase market share”
"our fundamental strategy is one of customer-centric intermediation."
“reaching for the impossible to do the impossible"
47 strategies and 178 action items.
Action item number 122 was 'create a strategic plan.’
Purpose Alignment Model
Applicable at all Levels
• Corporate Strategy
• Product Strategy
A View of Strategy - Apple
NEW PRODUCT DESIGN
Fit for Purpose
• Who are your
• What is their
• What Problem(s) do
they want solved
Value of InformationValue of Uncertainty
Tornado ChartReal Options
Value of Flexibility
1. Know what business you are in
2. Discover the risks and uncertainties
that dominate your business
3. Get very good at managing for those
4. Feedback loops are critical to learning