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LKCE18 Janice Linden-Reed - Kanban Saves the World

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How does Kanban handle risk and recovery in global disaster relief and business continuity?

The definition of disaster is a condition in which demand far exceeds capacity to cope. Reports of relief efforts after disasters such as earthquakes and tsunamis show lack of coordination, overwhelmed relief workers, and problems with transporting supplies. Before a disaster, preparation means looking at dimensions of risk reduction: vulnerability, efficiency, resilience, system fragility, and the policies of a recovery plan.

Kanban is uniquely well-suited to manage conditions of unbalanced demand vs capacity. This talk looks at the way elements of Kanban can help your business before and after a market disaster, as well as improve serious disaster relief worldwide.

Published in: Leadership & Management
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LKCE18 Janice Linden-Reed - Kanban Saves the World

  1. 1. KANBAN SAVES THE WORLD J A N I C E L I N D E N - R E E D L E A N K A N B A N C E N T R A L E U R O P E 2 0 1 8
  2. 2. RUSSELL HEALY, KCP • In 2011 a 6.3 earthquake struck Christchurch, New Zealand, killing 185 people • The Ministry of Social Development was unable to meet the demand to distribute emergency relief funds • Russell set up a Kanban system to better manage the work • By the end of the first week, $53 million was distributed. $145 million by week 3. WORKED WITH NEW ZEALAND’S MINISTRY OF SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT
  3. 3. I S K A N B A N A P P L I E D T H E S A M E W AY I N A D I S A S T E R S C E N A R I O ?
  4. 4. A S H O R T L E S S O N O N K A N B A N
  5. 5. KANBAN BALANCES DEMAND AND CAPABILITY Customer  Demand Capability  to DeliverKANBAN  SYSTEM
  6. 6. WHAT HAPPENS WHEN DEMAND AND CAPABILITY ARE OUT OF BALANCE? Quality issues,  causing more delay and dissatisfaction Lack of predictability Overworkedbut  unproductive workers Missed deadlines Capability  to Deliver Customer  Demand KANBAN  SYSTEM
  7. 7. HOW CAN YOU HANDLE TOO MUCH DEMAND FOR THE AVAILABLE CAPABILITY? BETTER TRAINING? REFUSE THE WORK  REQUESTS? HIRE MORE PEOPLE? NEW TOOLS? ??? Capability  to Deliver Customer  Demand KANBAN  SYSTEM
  8. 8. KANBAN HAS TECHNIQUES TO BETTER MANAGE CAPABILITY, DEMAND, AND FLOW Shape Demand Classes of Service Cost of Delay Board Design Options Model Upstream Kanban Queuing Policy Decoupled Cadences Capacity Allocation … Kanban gives us “levers” to adjust as our business needs shift Customer  Demand Capability  to Deliver Improve Capability Identify and Reduce Delay Bottleneck Handling Dependency Management Understanding Variation Economic Cost Model Risk Review Feedback Loops Manage Flow …
  9. 9. DoneNext 5 ∞ Ongoing Development Testing Done Ongoing Done 3 3∞ ∞ Deploy Work Items Who is working on what? How work exits the system How work FLOWS through the system How work enters the system Explicit rules for how to handle the work The activities applied to the work (workflow) A KANBAN SYSTEM MODELS THE SYSTEM OF WORK
  10. 10. Testing DoneNext 5 ∞ Ongoing Development Done Ongoing Done 3 3∞ ∞ Deploy Work Items Who is working on what? How work exits the system How work FLOWS through the system How work enters the system The activities applied to the work (workflow) Explicit rules for how to handle the work POLICIES ARE DELIBERATE AND EXPLICIT, NOT UNSTATED AND ASSUMED
  11. 11. KANBAN: KNOW YOUR SYSTEM OF WORK Observe the current work including  patterns and pain points. Design a Kanban system to model and  manage the system of work Improve the system through gradual,  evolutionary change 3 2 1
  12. 12. A SHORT LESSON ON DISASTER
  13. 13. WHAT IS A DISASTER?
  14. 14. WHAT IS A DISASTER? “Disasters occur when the demands for action exceed the capabilities for response in a crisis situation” Professor Enrico Quarantelli (1985)
  15. 15. UNITED NATIONS “The consequences of events triggered by natural hazards that overwhelm local response capacity and seriously affect the social and economic development of a region.”
  16. 16. INTERNATIONAL FEDERATION OF RED CROSS AND RED CRESCENT VULNERABILTY CAPACITY ASSESSMENT (VCA) (VULNERABILITY+ HAZARD ) / CAPACITY = DISASTER
  17. 17. TYPICAL CAPABILITY TO HANDLE DEMAND CUSTOMER DEMAND CAPACITY TO HANDLE DEMAND
  18. 18. PATTERNS OF DISASTER SITUATIONS • Demand exceeds capacity – suddenly and severely • Previous capacity is reduced CUSTOMER DEMAND CAPACITY TO HANDLE DEMAND
  19. 19. PATTERNS OF DISASTER SITUATIONS After the initial impact, demand increases while capacity continues to decrease CUSTOMER DEMAND CAPACITY TO HANDLE DEMAND
  20. 20. PATTERNS OF DISASTER SITUATIONS
  21. 21. NATURAL DISASTER ON THE RISE Since 1970, the number of disasters worldwide has more than quadrupled to around 400 a year. These include earthquakes, storms, floods and heatwaves.
  22. 22. DISASTER MANAGEMENT WORKS In 1970, 200,000 people perished annually. That figure has been dramatically reduced, thanks to safety measures such as improved buildings and flood-prevention schemes.
  23. 23. DISASTER MANAGEMENT IS RISK MANAGEMENT
  24. 24. Preparedness PHASES OF DISASTER MANAGEMENT • Training • Materials/Supplies • Communication systems in place Response RecoveryPrevention • Building standards • Vaccines • Flood walls • Evacuations • Rescue • Services: providers, equipment, supplies • Rebuilding • Restore infrastructure (govt, water, power)
  25. 25. 2018 INDONESIA EARTHQUAKE • 563 people killed • More than 1000 injured • 417,000 people displaced • 1226 hikers stranded due to landslides • More than 350 aftershocks
  26. 26. MEDICAL ASSISTANCE SEARCH & RESCUE DELIVER SUPPLIES REBUILD BUSINESSES
  27. 27. RISK MITIGATION
  28. 28. MOST SERVICES WERE OVERBURDENED Customer  Demand Capability  to Deliver
  29. 29. PREVIOUS CAPABILITY IS REDUCED – Government buildings and medical clinics destroyed – Roads and bridges impassable – Clean water and plumbing damaged – Telecommunications and power outages
  30. 30. CONDITIONS CREATE MORE NEEDS TO FULFILL • No plumbing – using river as a toilet • Medical facilities overwhelmed, care provided outside – Lack of sterile operating areas
  31. 31. POLICY ISSUES DATA INTEGRITY Assumptions, rumors, and trauma
  32. 32. CAN KANBAN HELP?
  33. 33. K ANBAN SAVED A HOSPITAL IN INDONESIA M A R C U S H A M M A R B E R G
  34. 34. MARCUS HAMMARBERG
  35. 35. “THIS HOSPITAL MUST CLOSE” • Operating with an expired permit • Losing money – in danger of closing down • Paying employees below legal wages • Roof has caved in; Raining every day
  36. 36. SOURCES OF DISSATISFACTION
  37. 37. SCOPE: FACILITY MAINTENANCE AND REPAIR • Facility maintenance and repair issues – Manager has no independent authority – Team constantly interrupted and overwhelmed – Urgent workload (such as fixing the roof) – Open work items for months – Unclear process
  38. 38. APPLYING THE KANBAN METHOD • Feedback loops – Data – Meetings with defined agendas • Policies: – Decision authority – Per-personWIP limit • Classes of service – some of facilities were treated differently
  39. 39. RESULT • Situation went from chaos to orderly • In 2 weeks, went from 6 items completed (2-3 per week) to 46 items complete • In 2 weeks, they served 120 patients in a day. In 6 months, they were averaging 120 patients served a day. The hospital was profitable. • Essential roof repairs completed in 3-4 months • Further improvements were made as time went on • Rebuild was better than before
  40. 40. ANALYSIS • Multiple service system • Ongoing service delivery, not short lived • Helped mature a low maturity organization • Kanban applied here is excellent but not different than a typical Kanban system • Due to the urgency of the situation, there are more aggressive policy changes than is typical, as suggested by the coach (Marcus). Roles and responsibilities were especially affected. • Data is also used throughout as a feedback mechanism
  41. 41. ANALYSIS• . WHEN RISK IS HIGH, MORE MANAGED CHANGE AND MORE DATA MONITORING IS USEFUL
  42. 42. K ANBAN IN EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RECOVERY R U S S E L L H E A LY
  43. 43. DISTRIBUTION OF FUNDS: 2011 NZ EARTHQUAKE Doing (2 per person)  Done   To Do Delivery Replenishment Must be possible to complete each work item in 2 days or less (SLA) Daily 1-hour replenishment meeting 2 releases per day PB DEMN WIP limit: 2 work items in progress per person PBDEMN Per person WIP limits CLEAR FLOW
  44. 44. DISTRIBUTION OF FUNDS: 2011 NZ EARTHQUAKE Doing (2 per person)  Done   To Do Delivery Replenishment PB DEMN PBDEMN Frequent delivery CLEAR FLOW One class of service Decisions upstream Frequent replenishment Opportunity for change
  45. 45. ANALYSIS • Single service system • Critical cost of delay • Short-lived system (service) GREAT IMBALANCE + URGENCY NEEDS TIGHTLY MANAGED FLOW
  46. 46. 1. RISK MANAGEMENT What is at risk? • Work is delivered late • Work is not delivered at all • Wrong work is delivered • Workers and/or Customers are dissatisfied
  47. 47. 1. RISK MANAGEMENT Steps taken to reduce risk: • Low variation – limited scope (SLA), single (familiar) work item type • Workers are “protected” from planning and other such activities • Close monitoring and facilitation of each work item • Tightly defined and enforced policies
  48. 48. 2. AGILITY FOR FAST CHANGING CONDITIONS • Daily opportunity to review and adjust • Meetings with stakeholders are longer and more frequent BUT structured and limited attendance
  49. 49. 3. FEEDBACK LOOPS • Performance is monitored and made visible to manage expectations of capacity • Daily meetings • Data tracking • Frequent customer interaction – are the current activities effective? • Strong visibility and measurement make up for the lack of slow experimentation
  50. 50. GREATER IMBALANCE + URGENCY NEEDS TIGHTLY MANAGED FLOW FLOW • Hands-on facilitation: SRM upstream options, SDM downstream flow • Explicit upstream replenishment process and policies • Constrained scope (low SLA) • ConstrainedWIP limits FEEDBACK LOOPS • More frequent feedback loops: ie., daily meetings • More frequent and accurate data review • More frequent replenishment and delivery activities • More frequent adjustment of policies Customer  Demand Capability  to Deliver
  51. 51. WRAP-UP K A N B A N S AV E S T H E WO R L D
  52. 52. KANBAN IN A DISASTER SCENARIO MANAGE RISK SUPPORT AGILITY COMMUNICATION (FEEDBACK LOOPS) More hands-on policy changes Clear roles, authority, activities Less emergent/evolutionary * Reduce variation Protect bottleneck workers Monitor work items * Once the situation is stable, you can experiment again Build in opportunities for change Identify elements of system to change Consider internal and external Collect data Lots of visibility Get customer feedback often Increase meetings and reviews Structure and limit meetings
  53. 53. LESSONS FOR DISASTER SCENARIOS Smooth out and facilitate flow – reduce variation When risk is higher, communication is more important Visibility is more important for trust, alignment, and performance Data, work status, policies, conversations, … Mandate changes but then measure Build change options into the system
  54. 54. BUSINESS CONTINUITY
  55. 55. BUSINESS CONTINUITY WORKPLACE DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT “Business continuity is the ability of an organization to maintain essential functions during, as well as after, a disaster has occurred.” – TechTarget, Search Disaster Recovery In a disaster scenario, you will need to increase feedback loops and agility. You may have to change policies.
  56. 56. BUSINESS CONTINUITY WORKPLACE DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT STANDARD SOLUTIONS • Cloud • Co-location • Cross training • Monitoring • etc KANBAN SYSTEM – What is your emergency plan? • Alternate policies • Data, other visibility, needed to recover faster • Will services change? • Will dependencies change? • Other disruptions to flow? • Should decision authority change?
  57. 57. RESOURCES • Russell Healy – Using Kanban in earthquake recovery – https://medium.com/@lki_dja/a-kanban-disaster-story-d30051450c1d • Marcus Hammarberg – How Kanban Saved a Hospital in Indonesia – https://youtu.be/nEKuY9P53Q4 • Understanding the statistics of a “100 year flood” (handout) – https://pubs.usgs.gov/gip/106/pdf/100-year-flood-handout-042610.pdf • Definitions of terms for disasters and emergencies – http://apps.who.int/disasters/repo/7656.pdf • Red Cross and Red CrescentVulnerability and Capacity Assessment (VCA) – https://youtu.be/wS719VN-HfU http://www.ifrc.org/vca
  58. 58. THANK YOU! Janice Linden-Reed • Janice@readyoption.com
  59. 59. C A N K A N B A N H E L P D I S A S T E R M A N A G E M E N T A G E N C I E S O V E R A L L ?
  60. 60. COMMON ISSUES WITH AGENCIES Low maturity – poorly defined and implemented process Struggle to make decisions Poor visibility Coordination issues within and between agencies Work is happening but goal isn’t closer Lack of trust
  61. 61. KANBAN FOR AGENCIES Manage incoming requests (options, class of service) Transparency of work in progress, upcoming and finished Focus on feedback loops (data and communication): Improved coordination between agencies or departments Ability to adjust quickly as conditions change without disruption
  62. 62. S U P P L E M E N TA L M AT E R I A L S
  63. 63. COMMUNICATE THE METRIC
  64. 64. CAPACITY DEVELOPMENT BEFORE A DISASTER Disaster Risk Management (DRM) Using administrative directives, organizations, and operational skills and capacities to implement strategies, policies and improved coping capacities in order to lessen the adverse impacts of hazards and the possibility of disaster. Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) Analyze and manage the causal factors of disasters, including through reduced exposure to hazards, lessened vulnerability of people and property, wise management of land and the environment, and improved preparedness for adverse events.
  65. 65. DATA, COMMUNICATIONS, SOCIAL MEDIA, AND TECH ARE HELPING
  66. 66. YOU CAN’T CONTROL THE WEATHER! APPLY RISK MITIGATION MEASURES
  67. 67. TYPES OF VARIATION Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. Expected or unsurprising Inside of typical system parameters. “The noise within the system” Unexpected and unpredictable Possible but outside of system control Improve  processes;  change system  design. Take specific  actions to  mitigate risk Common Cause (“Chance Cause”) Special Cause (“Assignable Cause”)
  68. 68. KANBAN CADENCES Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
  69. 69. KANBAN CADENCES How are we  performing?  What  do the numbers say? Do we need to adjust  the Kanban system? Which options  should we  choose next? What work is in  progress and  how do we  handle it? What work is  ready for  release soon? Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
  70. 70. KANBAN CADENCES Are we fulfilling our goals?What dependencies are coming up? What is de-railing us?What problems do we expect? What are our goals? How should we approach this? Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.

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