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If not now, when? Prospects for a cycling revolution in 2012/13

Presentation by Bruce McVean, Founder, Movement for Liveable London to Newcastle Cycling Camapign on 12/06/12

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If not now, when? Prospects for a cycling revolution in 2012/13

  1. If not now, when?Prospects for a cycling revolution in 2012/13Bruce McVean, Principal Consultant, Beyond Green and Founder, Movement for Liveable London Newcastle Cycling Campaign 12/06/12
  2. If not now, when? 2
  3. If not now, when? Photo: LCC 3
  4. If not now, when? 4
  5. If not now, when?“I think the Times campaign is an excellent campaign. I strongly support what theyare trying to do. Anyone who has got on a bicycle - particularly in one of our busiercities - knows you are taking your life into your hands every time you do so, and so wedo need to do more to try and make cycling safer.” David Cameron, 22 February 2012 5
  6. We‟ve been here before ... Joe Dunckely,“Many people are turning once again to the bicycle ... as a means of transport” -William Whitlock MP, 1976“I am told that bike sales now out number car sales” - Lynda Chalker, TransportMinster, 1985“Cycling is booming” – Peter Hendy, TfL, 2004 6
  7. No more cycling revolutions - the liveable city as a shared ambition Photo: Andrew Cameron, WSP 7
  8. Revolution or evolution? Changing a city takes time, but we can‟t afford delays 8
  9. The internal combustion engine is not the problem ... Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution, 2007 9
  10. The internal combustion engine is not the problem ... 12000 10000 Other public transportDistance travelled (miles) 8000 Taxi and minicab Rail Bus and coach 6000 Other private transport Car passenger Car driver 4000 Cycle Walk 2000 0 Lowest Second Third Fourth Highest Income quintile 10
  11. The internal combustion engine is not the problem ... 40 35KSI rate per 100,000 population 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 0-4 5-7 8-11 12-15 16-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80+ Age band 11
  12. The internal combustion engine is not the problem ...“For most people, the easiest and most acceptable forms of physical activity arethose that can be incorporated into everyday life.” Liam Donaldson, CMO, At least five a week, 2004 12
  13. The internal combustion engine is not the problem ... Appleyard and Lintell, 1972 13
  14. ... the Renault Twizy could be part of the solution (other silver bullets are available) ... Photo: The Telegraph 14
  15. ... but the electric Range Rover is about as far from a solution as you can possibly get! Photo: KatsDekker on Flickr 15
  16. The (de-privatised) car as the option of last resort 16
  17. Cycling - an essential component of a more liveable city Photo: Mikael Colville-Andersen 17
  18. Cycling for all ages and abilities – the 8-80 city 18
  19. Big moves 19
  20. Start with the junctions Image: LCC 20
  21. Cycle lanes and reallocation of road space“You can wish people onto bikes, but you won‟t get them onto bikes unless youprovide a safe network.” Jeanette Sadik Kahn Photo: 21
  22. Reclaim the street 22
  23. The 20mph city“There is an equation in the physical sciences that tells us that kinetic energy in amoving object is equal to one-half of its mass times velocity squared ... A car movingtwice as fast has four times as much kinetic energy. We do not need to have been hitby a car to understand this. Evolution has hard-wired this knowledge into ourbrains.” Ian Roberts and Phil Edwards, The Energy Glut, 2010“Simply put, if you get hit by a car driving at 30 mph you are much more likely to getseriously injured or killed than at 20 mph. In fact a pedestrian struck at 20 mph has a97% chance of survival whilst at 30 mph the figure is 80%, falling to 50% at 35 mph.” Tom Platt, Living Streets 23
  24. Change the economics of car ownership and use“We need to shift the emphasis from households spending thousands of pounds on anew car every few years and then experiencing a relatively low cost per trip, to asituation where people pay for each individual trip but don‟t invest the initial lumpsum. By doing this, we will all think much more carefully about the best way to make ajourney ... Some households will find that they no longer need to keep a car for theirpersonal use and will save money.” Professor Roger Mackett, UCL 24
  25. Small can be beautiful 25
  26. Filtered permeabilityPhoto: shamiejerlock on Flickr 26
  27. Storage and parking Photo: LCC 27
  28. Promotion and training 28
  29. Some reflections on London 29
  30. A cycling mayor or a mayor for cycling? “…sometimes I just go round Elephant & Castle because its fine. If you keep your wits about you, Elephant & Castle is perfectly negotiable.” Boris Johnson, 2011 30
  31. 31
  32. Share the road Photo: Joe Dunckely 32
  33. Share the road“We may share the road, but we don‟t share the risk” Amy Aeron-Thomas, RoadPeace“... possession combined with brute force make up ten-tenths of the law” Ian Roberts and Phil Edwards, The Energy Glut, 2010 33
  34. Share the road Photo: LCC 34
  35. A bike is for life not just commuting“Analysis by TfL shows that usage by cyclists through this junction is predominantlyfor travelling to and from work and is therefore concentrated during traditional „rushhour‟ periods ... Vehicular speeds are predicted to be at their lowest through thejunction during peak time, at an estimated speed of just 12mph, creating a muchimproved and safer environment for cyclists to pass through.” Transport for London, 25th July 2011 35
  36. Cycle Superhighways – a compromise too far ... Photos:, 36
  37. ... or a foundation to build on? Photos: LCC, 37
  38. Hackney – what no cycle lanes?!? Photos: LCC in Hackney, Hackney BC 38
  39. Symbolism Photo: 39
  40. Symbolism“Showing the person on the $40 bicycle that they‟re as important as the person inthe $40,000 car.” Gil Penalosa 40
  41. Love London, Go What? Photo: LCC 41
  42. Cyclists - champions for a more liveable city 42
  43. 43
  44. Pedestrians, pedestrians, pedestrians 44
  45. Cyclists will have to accept a slower pace, but not necessarily slower journeys 45
  46. „All it needs is political will‟“No goal, then no direction: no underlying plan, no consensus, then no effectivepractical action. If society is paralysed today , it is not for lack of means but for lackof purpose.” Lewis Mumford. The Culture of Cities, 1938“Road space for cars is a political decision not a technical decision.” Gil Penalosa 46
  47. „All it needs is political will‟“Decision-making is hard. Everyone always says: listen to the people. The trouble isthey dont always agree … And, in time, you realise putting the country first doesntmean doing the right thing according to conventional wisdom or the prevailingconsensus or the latest snapshot of opinion.” Tony Blair, 10 May 2007“You can‟t be friends with everyone.” Bo Asmuskjeldgaard, Mayor for Technical and Environmental Administration, Copenhagen 47
  48. Local authorities and public health – a new opportunity“The potential benefits of physical activity to health are huge. If a medication existedwhich had a similar effect, it would be regarded as a „wonder drug‟ or „miracle cure‟.” Liam Donaldson, CMO, Annual report of the Chief Medical Officer, 2009 48
  49. It‟s the economy stupid – resilience and first mover advantage 49
  50. Thrive don‟t survive 50
  51. Friendly competition and civic pride Photo: 51
  52. Follow the money, and make sure it‟s being spent wisely Photos: 52
  53. Acceptable compromises? At least in the short term Photo: The Times 53
  54. The liveable city - Shared values and vision 54
  55. Framing the debate about the future of the city 55
  56. It won‟t be easy, it‟ll take longer than we‟d like, and some crap will get built in the meantime ... 56
  57. ... but it will be worth it 57
  58. @liveablelondon 58