1
Understanding the Past; Being Honest about the Present;
Planning for the Future
A presentation for the SAOIM 2014 confer...
Understanding the Past; Being Honest about
the Present; Planning for the Future
A presentation for the SAOIM 2014 conferen...
#saoim
About Me
Brian Kelly:
• Innovation Advocate at Cetis (Centre for Educational
Technology, Interoperability and Stand...
#saoim
About This Talk
How should libraries predict and plan for
technological developments? When it comes to
future plann...
#saoim
About This Talk
What we can learn from:
 Expectations from the past
 Limitations of futurologists
The need to:
 ...
#saoim
In the Future
Data will be Big
6Image from Wikimedia Commons. CC BY-SA
#saoim
In the Future
Content and services will be open
7
Web is Agreement by Paul Downey.
CC BY
#saoim
In the Future
We will own our services and content
8
#saoim
In the Future
We will see a growth in use of online services
9
#saoim
In the Future
We will see a growth in use of online services
10
FinTech Mentor Huy Nguyen Trieu shares his views on...
#saoim
In the Future
We will see a growth in use of online services
11
NASA Turns to Online Giant Amazon for Cloud Computi...
#saoim
In the Future
We will see the importance of librarians and
information professionals acknowledged
12
Causes, ALA
#saoim
In the Future
We will see greater investment in libraries
13
£298k investment!
The Library is committed to enhancin...
#saoim
In the Future
We will travel to work by monorail
14
#saoim
In the Future
We will use jetpacks at weekends (or maybe for
document delivery!)
15
#saoim
When Did You Stop Believing?
At what point did you become sceptical?
16
Big data Growth in onlineOpen sourceOpen co...
#saoim
Top Tips for Predicting the Future
Tip no. 1
17
You will be inclined to believe in predictions
which reflect person...
#saoim
Looking at the Futurologists
Gartner report
18
#saoim
Gartner
Beware vested
interests which
may be
threatened by
implications of
predictions
19
Gartner May Be Too Scared...
#saoim
We commission
reports from
experts in the field
20PDF
#saoim
We commission
reports from
experts in the field
21
… is an information professional who has specialized in the
fiel...
#saoim
Looking at Other Sectors
What can we learn from the changes
in the music industry?
• Record labels & music distribu...
#saoim
Looking at Other Sectors
Are libraries following
the path of HMV or
Apple/Amazon/
Google?
23
#saoim
Top Tips for Predicting the Future
Tip no. 2
24
You can’t always trust futurologists!
(they may bring their sectora...
#saoim
JISC Observatory
JISC Observatory:
• JISC-funded initiative
• Systematises processes for anticipating and
respondin...
#saoim
JISC Observatory
JISC Observatory processes
26
#saoim
Accompanying Paper
JISC Observatory work
described in paper
presented at EMTACL
(Emerging Technologies
in Academic ...
#saoim
Accompanying Paper
Follow-up paper
presented at CILIP’s
Umbrella 2013
conference
28
See bit.ly/umbrella-13-
kelly
S...
#saoim
Top Tips for Predicting the Future
Tip no. 3
29
Information professionals should carry out
evidence-gathering, sens...
#saoim
Invention, Innovation, Improvement
1. Invention: The creation of the idea or
method itself.
2. Innovation: The use ...
#saoim
Top Tips for Predicting the Future
Tip no. 4
31
You will need to monitor
(a) innovations to support long-term plann...
#saoim
Data
“Manchester City to
open the archive on
player data and
statistics”
Example of:
• How data can
inform practice...
#saoim
Significant Trends: Social Media
Survey in Aug 2012 of institutional use of Facebook across the 24 Russell
Group un...
#saoim
Significant Trends: Social Media
Survey in Aug 2012 of institutional use of Facebook across the 24 Russell
Group un...
#saoim
Behind The Data
Trends in Fb ‘Likes’ for Russell group Unis since Jan 2011
show steady increase
35
Jan 11 Sep 11 Ma...
LIES, DAMNED LIES AND GRAPHS
“#Blekko traffic goes through the roof –
for good reason. Try it out!”
Based on blog post ent...
#saoim
Top Tips for Predicting the Future
Tip no. 5
37
Data can provide insights and indicate trends –
but needs to be int...
#saoim
JISC Observatory
JISC Observatory processes
38
#saoim
Open Sense-making
Seek feedback on:
• Evidence-gathering
methodology e.g.
flaws in ‘paradata’
• Implications of
fin...
#saoim
Open Sense-making
Importance of open approaches to
interpretation of signals:
• Evidence-gathering methodologies ma...
#saoim
Top Tips for Predicting the Future
Tip no. 6
41
Once you’ve gathered evidence you should
encourage open feedback on...
#saoim
Envisaging Alternative Futures
There is a need to be willing to:
• Envisage implications of technological
developme...
43
Shush!
We may appropriate technological
developments to support their
activities - but simply emulate
existing ways of ...
#saoim
Question for the Audience
Hands up if you have:
• Used a mobile device for work-related purposes
in bed (yes, no, r...
#saoim
Becoming Receptive to Future-Thinking
How do we become more receptive to new
future scenarios?
• What did you notic...
#saoim
Reversing the Future!
Romancing Your Soul Absolutely Brilliant!
(1 min 44 secs)
46
#saoim
Reversing the Future!
The Future of Publishing (2
mins 24 secs)
47
Various innovative
story-telling
techniques list...
#saoim
Top Tips for Predicting the Future
Tip no. 7
48
Make use of techniques which may help you to be
receptive to altern...
#saoim
Prioritising Work
The Delphic Methodology
Group exercise
Identify 4 key technologies which you feel will be
importa...
#saoim
Top Tips for Predicting the Future
Tip no. 8
50
Explore the potential of using the Delphi
methodology to help ident...
#saoim
Scenario Planning
You’ve speculated on alternative futures.
You can use them in scenario planning
exercises
51
Scen...
#saoim
Future Scenarios for Social Networks
Possible scenarios
for social networks
52
Steady as
she goes
Dystopian
futures...
#saoim
Future Scenarios for Social Networks
Possible scenarios
for social networks
53
Steady as
she goes
Dystopian
futures...
#saoim
Implications for Future of Libraries
Possible scenarios for
the future of libraries
54
Everyone’s
a librarian
Fake
...
#saoim
Top Tips for Predicting the Future
Tip no. 9
55
Scenario planning, covering both technological
and societal develop...
#saoim
NMC Horizon Reports
NMC Horizon Reports: http://www.nmc.org/
56
#saoim
NMC Horizon Report: HE Edition 2013
NMC Horizon report: Higher
Education, 2013
57
PDF
#saoim
NMC Horizon Report: Library Edition 2014
NMC Horizon Report: Library Edition
2014
58
#saoim
ETAG (Education Technology Action Group)
ETAG:
• Exploring short-
and long-term
actions for UK
Government,
educatio...
#saoim
ETAG (Education Technology Action Group)
ETAG:
• Exploring short-
and long-term
actions for UK
Government,
educatio...
#saoim
ETAG (Education Technology Action Group)
ETAG:
• Exploring short-
and long-term
actions for UK
Government,
educatio...
#saoim
Top Tips for Predicting the Future
Tip no. 10
62
Read the NMC and related reports (but
discuss their relevance in y...
#saoim
Warning From The Past
Tim Berners-Lee didn’t
let evidence of the
popularity of Gopher
hinder development of
the Web...
#saoim
Tip no. 11
The Serenity Prayer
64The Serenity Prayer
#saoim
Conclusions
1. Beware of predictions which reflect personal
/ sectoral beliefs
2. You can’t always trust futurologi...
#saoim
Conclusions
6. Solicit feedback on your evidence and
interpretations
7. Be receptive to innovation & use innovative...
#saoim
What Does the Future Hold? (1)
Personal thoughts and observations for librarians
67
PDF
#saoim
NMC Higher Education Horizon Report 2014
Important Developments in Educational
Technology for Higher Education Time...
#saoim
What Does the Future Hold? (2)
Personal thoughts and observations for librarians
69
Research data –
providing new
o...
#saoim
What Does the Future Hold? (2)
Personal thoughts and observations for librarians
70
Research data –
providing new
o...
#saoim
What Does the Future Hold? (3)
The future of libraries:
• Great opportunities provided by growth in the
online envi...
#saoim
72
That’s all folks!
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Understanding the Past; Being Honest about the Present; Planning for the Future

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Slides for an invited talk on "Understanding the Past; Being Honest about the Present; Planning for the Future" given by Brian Kelly, Cetis at the SAOIM 2014 conference in Pretoria on 4-5 June 2014.

For further information see Slides available at: http://ukwebfocus.wordpress.com/events/saoim-2014-lets-predict-the-future-workshop/

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Understanding the Past; Being Honest about the Present; Planning for the Future

  1. 1. 1 Understanding the Past; Being Honest about the Present; Planning for the Future A presentation for the SAOIM 2014 conference Brian Kelly, Cetis
  2. 2. Understanding the Past; Being Honest about the Present; Planning for the Future A presentation for the SAOIM 2014 conference Talk to be given by Brian Kelly, Cetis at the SAOIM 2014 conference in Pretoria, South Africa on 5 June 2014 Further details: http://ukwebfocus.wordpress.com/events/saoim-2014-planning-for-the-future/ http://ukwebfocus.wordpress.com/events/saoi m-2014-planning-for-the-future/
  3. 3. #saoim About Me Brian Kelly: • Innovation Advocate at Cetis (Centre for Educational Technology, Interoperability and Standards) • Based at University of Bolton • Was UK Web Focus, UKOLN from 1996-2013 • Role as a national advisory post to UK universities • Long-standing Web evangelist (since 1993) • Prolific blogger (~1,300 posts since Nov 2006) • Prolific speaker (~425 talks since 1996) • Author of peer-reviewed papers on various Web topics • Member of NMC Horizon Report Panel of Experts 3 Contact details: Twitter: @briankelly email: ukwebfocus@gmail.com Twitter: #saoim
  4. 4. #saoim About This Talk How should libraries predict and plan for technological developments? When it comes to future planning, how can libraries identify the ‘weak signals’ which may indicate possible significant changes? If we look back to the past to our childhood we may have had over-optimistic views on benefits which technological developments would provide. This talk describes a methodology used by Cetis in their work with Jisc to systematise the prediction of technological developments. 4
  5. 5. #saoim About This Talk What we can learn from:  Expectations from the past  Limitations of futurologists The need to:  Gather evidence  Solicit broad feedback on interpretations of the evidence  Be receptive to the implications of new technologies and the broader environment Relevant horizon-scanning report Conclusions (What, specifically, does the future hold?) If time! 5 Joe Murphy: “I’ll ask questions about future of libraries” Me: “I’ll describe a methodology for asking the questions and interpretting the findings”
  6. 6. #saoim In the Future Data will be Big 6Image from Wikimedia Commons. CC BY-SA
  7. 7. #saoim In the Future Content and services will be open 7 Web is Agreement by Paul Downey. CC BY
  8. 8. #saoim In the Future We will own our services and content 8
  9. 9. #saoim In the Future We will see a growth in use of online services 9
  10. 10. #saoim In the Future We will see a growth in use of online services 10 FinTech Mentor Huy Nguyen Trieu shares his views on new opportunities in the FinTech space, April 2014 with increased access on mobile devices
  11. 11. #saoim In the Future We will see a growth in use of online services 11 NASA Turns to Online Giant Amazon for Cloud Computing Services for Mars Rover Curiosity, August 2012 and content and services hosted in the Cloud
  12. 12. #saoim In the Future We will see the importance of librarians and information professionals acknowledged 12 Causes, ALA
  13. 13. #saoim In the Future We will see greater investment in libraries 13 £298k investment! The Library is committed to enhancing its services and facilities to deliver the very best library experience for users. During 2013/14 we are directing £298k to boost access to core materials. This sum is in addition to the millions spent on library resources across the Colleges. Enhancing Core Library Collections 2013/14, University of Exeter, UK
  14. 14. #saoim In the Future We will travel to work by monorail 14
  15. 15. #saoim In the Future We will use jetpacks at weekends (or maybe for document delivery!) 15
  16. 16. #saoim When Did You Stop Believing? At what point did you become sceptical? 16 Big data Growth in onlineOpen sourceOpen content Value of librarians Greater investment Monorails Jetpacks
  17. 17. #saoim Top Tips for Predicting the Future Tip no. 1 17 You will be inclined to believe in predictions which reflect personal beliefs and interests or reflects the organisational or sectoral culture
  18. 18. #saoim Looking at the Futurologists Gartner report 18
  19. 19. #saoim Gartner Beware vested interests which may be threatened by implications of predictions 19 Gartner May Be Too Scared To Say It, But the PC Is Dead, Mark Hachman, Readwrite Web, 5 April 2013
  20. 20. #saoim We commission reports from experts in the field 20PDF
  21. 21. #saoim We commission reports from experts in the field 21 … is an information professional who has specialized in the fields of electronic information provision for over 20 years. In recent years, he has specialized in metadata for digital libraries, in which capacity he is a member of the editorial board for the METS (Metadata Encoding and Transmission Standard) standard for digital library metadata.
  22. 22. #saoim Looking at Other Sectors What can we learn from the changes in the music industry? • Record labels & music distributors reluctance to respond to:  Growth in networked music services  Users willing to accept limitations of file formats (MP3) • New players (Apple, Amazon, Google) enter the market 22 Were reports commissioned which (mistakenly) provided evidence of importance of high fidelity formats over MP3?
  23. 23. #saoim Looking at Other Sectors Are libraries following the path of HMV or Apple/Amazon/ Google? 23
  24. 24. #saoim Top Tips for Predicting the Future Tip no. 2 24 You can’t always trust futurologists! (they may bring their sectoral, organisational or personal prejudices with them) Caveat: Their expertise may also be valuable and correct, but they may miss significant developments
  25. 25. #saoim JISC Observatory JISC Observatory: • JISC-funded initiative • Systematises processes for anticipating and responding to projected future trends & scenarios • Provided by JISC Innovation Support Centres at UKOLN and CETIS • See <http://blog.observatory.jisc.ac.uk/> 25 But: • Work closed due to cessation of JISC core funding • Methodology being shared across community
  26. 26. #saoim JISC Observatory JISC Observatory processes 26
  27. 27. #saoim Accompanying Paper JISC Observatory work described in paper presented at EMTACL (Emerging Technologies in Academic Libraries) 2012 conference 27 Sharing approaches with Norwegian librarians See bit.ly/emtacl12- kelly Feel free to view papers, share with colleagues & provide feedback using #saoim
  28. 28. #saoim Accompanying Paper Follow-up paper presented at CILIP’s Umbrella 2013 conference 28 See bit.ly/umbrella-13- kelly Sharing approaches with UK librarians Feel free to view papers, share with colleagues & provide feedback using #saoim
  29. 29. #saoim Top Tips for Predicting the Future Tip no. 3 29 Information professionals should carry out evidence-gathering, sense-making and synthesis activities for their own organisation / sector.
  30. 30. #saoim Invention, Innovation, Improvement 1. Invention: The creation of the idea or method itself. 2. Innovation: The use of a better and, as a result, novel idea or method. 3. Improvement: Doing current activities better. 30 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Innovation Which one is your main area of interest to support your professional activities?
  31. 31. #saoim Top Tips for Predicting the Future Tip no. 4 31 You will need to monitor (a) innovations to support long-term planning and (b) improvements in order to enhance operational practices
  32. 32. #saoim Data “Manchester City to open the archive on player data and statistics” Example of: • How data can inform practices and decisions • Public interest in open data • Interest from commercial sector 32
  33. 33. #saoim Significant Trends: Social Media Survey in Aug 2012 of institutional use of Facebook across the 24 Russell Group universities found >1M ‘Likes’ followers 33
  34. 34. #saoim Significant Trends: Social Media Survey in Aug 2012 of institutional use of Facebook across the 24 Russell Group universities found >1M ‘Likes’ followers 34
  35. 35. #saoim Behind The Data Trends in Fb ‘Likes’ for Russell group Unis since Jan 2011 show steady increase 35 Jan 11 Sep 11 May 12 Jul 12 But note increase in Jul 2012 due to addition of 4 new universities! But might trends hide a more complex story: • Usage & growth dominated by one significant player. • More modest usage generally
  36. 36. LIES, DAMNED LIES AND GRAPHS “#Blekko traffic goes through the roof – for good reason. Try it out!” Based on blog post entitled “Blekko’s Traffic Is Up Almost 400 Percent; Here Are The CEO’s Five Reasons Why” (includes dissatisfaction with Google) 36 Is Blekko’s Traffic Really Going Through The Roof? Will It Challenge Google?, UK Web Focus blog, 18 April 2012 Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics!
  37. 37. #saoim Top Tips for Predicting the Future Tip no. 5 37 Data can provide insights and indicate trends – but needs to be interpretted carefully
  38. 38. #saoim JISC Observatory JISC Observatory processes 38
  39. 39. #saoim Open Sense-making Seek feedback on: • Evidence-gathering methodology e.g. flaws in ‘paradata’ • Implications of findings • Interventions needed in light of findings 39 “All bugs are visible to many eyes”
  40. 40. #saoim Open Sense-making Importance of open approaches to interpretation of signals: • Evidence-gathering methodologies may have flaws • Incorrect or inappropriate implications may be made • This may lead to wrong decisions being made 40 Open sense-making approaches may be difficult – your marketing department may wish a consistent, positive message to be made.
  41. 41. #saoim Top Tips for Predicting the Future Tip no. 6 41 Once you’ve gathered evidence you should encourage open feedback on: • Validity of evidence-gathering methodologies • Interpretation of findings • Implications
  42. 42. #saoim Envisaging Alternative Futures There is a need to be willing to: • Envisage implications of technological developments 42
  43. 43. 43 Shush! We may appropriate technological developments to support their activities - but simply emulate existing ways of working! Acknowledgements to Patrick Hochstenbach (@hochstenbach)
  44. 44. #saoim Question for the Audience Hands up if you have: • Used a mobile device for work-related purposes in bed (yes, no, rarely) 44 “20% of the iPad users spent time with their iPad in bed” 2010 Informal survey, March 2012 “The future is already here - it's just not very evenly distributed” What are the implications of this new ‘platform’?
  45. 45. #saoim Becoming Receptive to Future-Thinking How do we become more receptive to new future scenarios? • What did you notice for the first time recently? What will you foresee for the future? • Typically optimistic or pessimistic views, reflecting personal traits. • Possibly no new insights Now stretch your mind consider: • The History of the Web Backwards • Forecasting Trends Backwards 45
  46. 46. #saoim Reversing the Future! Romancing Your Soul Absolutely Brilliant! (1 min 44 secs) 46
  47. 47. #saoim Reversing the Future! The Future of Publishing (2 mins 24 secs) 47 Various innovative story-telling techniques listed in a blog post by Tony Hirst (ouseful.info)
  48. 48. #saoim Top Tips for Predicting the Future Tip no. 7 48 Make use of techniques which may help you to be receptive to alternative future scenarios … and consider use of such approaches when you tell stories about the future to your users
  49. 49. #saoim Prioritising Work The Delphic Methodology Group exercise Identify 4 key technologies which you feel will be important : • During the current year • In 2-3 years’ time • In 4-5 years’ time Vote on other groups’ proposals You’ve identified areas you feel will be important 49 The Delphi methodology is used by NMC and in the JISC Observatory Workshop notes
  50. 50. #saoim Top Tips for Predicting the Future Tip no. 8 50 Explore the potential of using the Delphi methodology to help identification of future developments of importance to your organisation
  51. 51. #saoim Scenario Planning You’ve speculated on alternative futures. You can use them in scenario planning exercises 51 Scenario planning, also called scenario thinking or scenario analysis, is a strategic planning method that some organizations use to make flexible long-term plans. It is in large part an adaptation and generalization of classic methods used by military intelligence.
  52. 52. #saoim Future Scenarios for Social Networks Possible scenarios for social networks 52 Steady as she goes Dystopian futures Small is beautiful Who cares? Continued growth in existing services FaceAmazoogle own your content & digital identities Distributed open source services; individuals own content User backlash against social networks & stop using them
  53. 53. #saoim Future Scenarios for Social Networks Possible scenarios for social networks 53 Steady as she goes Dystopian futures Small is beautiful Who cares? The default scenario How do we detect evidence of this scenario? How do we detect evidence of this scenario? How do we detect evidence of this scenario?
  54. 54. #saoim Implications for Future of Libraries Possible scenarios for the future of libraries 54 Everyone’s a librarian Fake certainties Middle classes or deprived? Privatised future We all curate large amount of digital content. Who needs professional librarians? We know we’re right / our boss is convinced he’s right! Is focus on support for online users or those who don’t / can’t use IT? We are encouraging users to use commercial services See http://hyperlinkedlibrarymoocbriankelly.wordpress.com/category/library-of-the-future/ Joe Murphy asked you to consider this scenario
  55. 55. #saoim Top Tips for Predicting the Future Tip no. 9 55 Scenario planning, covering both technological and societal developments, can be useful in planning for future developments
  56. 56. #saoim NMC Horizon Reports NMC Horizon Reports: http://www.nmc.org/ 56
  57. 57. #saoim NMC Horizon Report: HE Edition 2013 NMC Horizon report: Higher Education, 2013 57 PDF
  58. 58. #saoim NMC Horizon Report: Library Edition 2014 NMC Horizon Report: Library Edition 2014 58
  59. 59. #saoim ETAG (Education Technology Action Group) ETAG: • Exploring short- and long-term actions for UK Government, educational institutions • Contributions welcomed 59 http://feltag.org.uk/etag/
  60. 60. #saoim ETAG (Education Technology Action Group) ETAG: • Exploring short- and long-term actions for UK Government, educational institutions • Contributions welcomed • Comments by Twitter hashtags & email 60 http://feltag.org.uk/etag/contribute-to-etag/clster-1/
  61. 61. #saoim ETAG (Education Technology Action Group) ETAG: • Exploring short- and long-term actions for UK Government, educational institutions • Contributions welcomed • Comments by Twitter hashtags & email 61 http://feltag.org.uk/etag/contribute-to-etag/clster-1/
  62. 62. #saoim Top Tips for Predicting the Future Tip no. 10 62 Read the NMC and related reports (but discuss their relevance in your own context) … and consider implications of Twitter as a tool for making input into policy discussions
  63. 63. #saoim Warning From The Past Tim Berners-Lee didn’t let evidence of the popularity of Gopher hinder development of the Web 63
  64. 64. #saoim Tip no. 11 The Serenity Prayer 64The Serenity Prayer
  65. 65. #saoim Conclusions 1. Beware of predictions which reflect personal / sectoral beliefs 2. You can’t always trust futurologists! 3. Carry out your own future planning work 4. Monitor innovations and improvements 5. Data can provide insights & indicate trends 65
  66. 66. #saoim Conclusions 6. Solicit feedback on your evidence and interpretations 7. Be receptive to innovation & use innovative approaches in story-telling 8. Explore use of the Delphi methodology 9. Make use of scenario planning 10. Read the NMC reports 11. Remember the Serenity prayer 66Thoughts on the future (if time)
  67. 67. #saoim What Does the Future Hold? (1) Personal thoughts and observations for librarians 67 PDF
  68. 68. #saoim NMC Higher Education Horizon Report 2014 Important Developments in Educational Technology for Higher Education Time-to-Adoption Horizon: One Year or Less >Flipped Classroom >Learning Analytics Time-to-Adoption Horizon: Two to Three Years >3D Printing >Games and Gamification Time-to-Adoption Horizon: Four to Five Years >Quantified Self >Virtual Assistants 68 (Pre-)Amplified events for professional development Evidence: collated by NMC Implications: better trained staff, who are aware on implications for teaching & learning & research How: managers to provide support; staff to use technologies
  69. 69. #saoim What Does the Future Hold? (2) Personal thoughts and observations for librarians 69 Research data – providing new opportunities Evidence: Personal observations of growth in vacancies in libraries Implications: Exploit metadata expertise in new areas. Gain expertise visualisation; statistics; … How: Monitor developments. Take part in MOOCs, …
  70. 70. #saoim What Does the Future Hold? (2) Personal thoughts and observations for librarians 70 Research data – providing new opportunities Evidence: Personal observations of growth in vacancies in libraries Implications: Exploit metadata expertise in new areas. Gain expertise visualisation; statistics; … How: Monitor developments. Take part in MOOCs, …
  71. 71. #saoim What Does the Future Hold? (3) The future of libraries: • Great opportunities provided by growth in the online environment • Uncertain due to:  The competition provided by other players  The failure of the library community to be willing to take risks and do thinks differently 71 “We suffer from limited horizons and are obsessed with obsolete practices and standards of perfection” Lawraine Wood, Proceedings of the Library Association Industrial Group, 1988! Evidence: For you to find! Implications: For you to decide How: Being pro-active; being open; being honest!
  72. 72. #saoim 72 That’s all folks!

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