Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.
1
Identifying and Preparing for Technological Developments
Brian Kelly, Innovation Advocate, Cetis
• A presentation for th...
Identifying and Preparing for
Technological Developments
Brian Kelly
Innovation Advocate
Cetis
University of Bolton
Bolton...
Contents
• About me
• The NMC Horizon Report for Libraries and the Delphi
process:
 What are the major technology trends?...
About Me
Brian Kelly
• Innovative Advocate at Cetis since Oct 2013
• Was UK Web Focus at UKOLN from 1996-2013
• Interests ...
Predicting the Future: The Risks
Risks in attempting to predict the future:
• We get it wrong
– the future didn’t material...
Looking at the Futurologists
• Gartner report
6
Gartner
Beware vested
interests which
may be
threatened by
implications of
predictions
7
Gartner May Be Too
Scared To Say ...
We commission
reports from
experts in the field
8PDF
We commission
reports from
experts in the field
9
… is an information professional who has specialized
in the fields of el...
A Collaborative Approach
We could use Twitter
10
Tweet your ideas
with event hashtag
I think teleporting could have implic...
THE Article
Article which summarised the
“6 key trends accelerating
technology adoption in
higher education in 2015”
publi...
About the NMC Horizon Library Study
12
NMC Horizon Report, 2014:
Library edition:
• Published in Aug 2014
• Based on ideas...
NMC Panel
Panel composed of 47
library and technology
experts from 16
countries on five
continents (including 3
from UK)
13
Short-Term Technology Trends
What technology trends did the NMC Horizon panel identify?
14
Seven key categories were ident...
Short-Term Technology Trends
Two areas of importance in the short-term (<1 year to
adoption) were identified and prioritis...
What’s Missing?
Let’s use the Delphi process (abbreviated version!):
• What significant technology trends do you feel will...
Medium-Term Drivers
What trends driving technology adoption in the medium
term (3-5 years?) did the NMC Horizon panel iden...
Medium-Term Drivers
Two drivers of technology adoption in medium term (3-5
years to adoption) were identified and prioriti...
What’s Missing?
Let’s use the Delphi process:
• What significant drivers of technology adoption
do you feel will have an i...
The Challenges
What challenges impeding technology adoption in
academic and research libraries did the NMC Horizon
panel i...
The Challenges
Two difficult challenges were identified:
21
“It is important for these new digital data sets to be preserv...
What’s Missing?
Let’s use the Delphi process:
• What:
 Solvable  Difficult  Wicked
challenges are missing?
• Tweet (or ...
Review
NMC Horizon report:
• Provides insights into technological trends,
driver & barriers for library
• Open methodology...
The Full NMC Horizon Report
NMC Horizon report
for Libraries 2014:
• 50 pages
• 18 topics
 6 key trends
 6 significant
c...
Tools for Futurists
Some tools which can help you to predict the future:
• Quick surveys
• Observing recent developments
N...
The Future Is Already Here!
Hands up if you have:
Used a mobile device for work-related purposes in bed
Options: Yes, No, ...
What Did You Notice Recently?
“What did you notice for the first time today (recently)?”
• Can be important for trend spot...
Action Brief Statement
Next Steps
Having identified future developments of relevance to
the organisation, you will now nee...
Risks
The Need to Explicitly Address Risks
From “Risks and Opportunities Framework for
Exploiting the Social Web” by Kelly...
Do it For Yourself
Do it for yourself!
• Slides, exercises, etc. for half-day workshop
available under a Creative Commons ...
Warning From The Past
Tim Berners-Lee didn’t
let evidence of the
popularity of Gopher
hinder development of
the Web
31
The Serenity Prayer
• The Serenity Prayer
32Serenity Prayer
Scenario Planning for Addressing the
Unexpected
33
Commercialisation
Devolved ownership
The niche librarian
Everyone’s an ...
Conclusions
We have:
• Seen examples of technology trends, drivers &
challenges as agreed by NMC Library panel
• Learnt ab...
35
Continue the Discussion
Give your thoughts on a blog
post about this session:
https://ukwebfocus.wordpress
.com/2015/02...
Questions?
Any questions, comments, …?
36
This presentation, “Identifying and Preparing for Technological
Developments”, by Brian Kelly, Cetis is licensed under the...
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

Identifying and Preparing for Technological Developments

2,001 views

Published on

Slides for a talk on "Identifying and Preparing for Technological Developments" given by Brian Kelly, Innovation Advocate at Cetis, University of Bolton at a JIBS meeting held in Birmingham on 26 February 2015.

See https://ukwebfocus.wordpress.com/events/jibs-2015/

Published in: Education
  • Be the first to comment

Identifying and Preparing for Technological Developments

  1. 1. 1 Identifying and Preparing for Technological Developments Brian Kelly, Innovation Advocate, Cetis • A presentation for the SAOIM 2014 conference What approaches does our enthusiastic librarian take in identifying technology trends?
  2. 2. Identifying and Preparing for Technological Developments Brian Kelly Innovation Advocate Cetis University of Bolton Bolton, UK Contact Details Email: ukwebfocus@gmail.com Twitter: @briankelly Cetis Web site: http://www.cetis.ac.uk/ Blog: http://ukwebfocus.wordpress.com/ 2 Slides and further information available at https://ukwebfocus.wordpress.com/events/jibs-2015/ A presentation for the JIBS 2015 event, Birmingham on 26 February 2015 Event hashtag: #jibs15
  3. 3. Contents • About me • The NMC Horizon Report for Libraries and the Delphi process:  What are the major technology trends?  Beyond the technology trends – the drivers accelerating technology adoption  Beyond the technology trends & drivers – the challenges impeding technology adoption • Carrying out your own trend analysis and preparing for the implications • Conclusions 3
  4. 4. About Me Brian Kelly • Innovative Advocate at Cetis since Oct 2013 • Was UK Web Focus at UKOLN from 1996-2013 • Interests in promoting use of innovative technologies and practices in higher education In 2014: • Delivered “planning for the future” half-day workshops at international library conferences in Pretoria & Bath • Invited expert, NMC Horizon Report, Academic Libraries In 2013: • Presented paper on “Reflecting on Yesterday, Understanding Today, Planning for Tomorrow” paper at Umbrella 2013 4
  5. 5. Predicting the Future: The Risks Risks in attempting to predict the future: • We get it wrong – the future didn’t materialise • We get it wrong - we were too cautious • Futorologists have biases 5
  6. 6. Looking at the Futurologists • Gartner report 6
  7. 7. Gartner Beware vested interests which may be threatened by implications of predictions 7 Gartner May Be Too Scared To Say It, But the PC Is Dead, Mark Hachman, Readwrite Web, 5 April 2013
  8. 8. We commission reports from experts in the field 8PDF
  9. 9. We commission reports from experts in the field 9 … is an information professional who has specialized in the fields of electronic information provision for over 20 years. In recent years, he has specialized in metadata for digital libraries, in which capacity he is a member of the editorial board for the METS (Metadata Encoding and Transmission Standard) standard for digital library metadata.
  10. 10. A Collaborative Approach We could use Twitter 10 Tweet your ideas with event hashtag I think teleporting could have implications for libraries in the future! #jibs15 58 Teleporting could have implications for libraries as people won’t be put off from visiting when it’s raining! #jibs15 22 and implications for libraries We would therefore need larger physical spaces for the teleporting visitors to the library #jibs15 41 Discuss alternative implications … So maybe the books could be teleported. Would we need a physical library building? #jibs15 48 10 & issues such as legal implications, business models, … What about the legal implication? Border control? Which VAT rate to use? Importing banned book? … #jibs15 #wtf 27 Feel free to add implications for users … Open collaborative approaches can help minimise biases, provide fresh insights, … (but Twitter probably isn’t the best tool for this!)
  11. 11. THE Article Article which summarised the “6 key trends accelerating technology adoption in higher education in 2015” published in Times Higher Education on 23 Feb 2014 Based on the NMC Horizon Report: 2015 Higher Education Edition 11
  12. 12. About the NMC Horizon Library Study 12 NMC Horizon Report, 2014: Library edition: • Published in Aug 2014 • Based on ideas from panel of experts • Ideas refined using Delphi process • Report available under Creative Commons licence Your interests: • What are the technology trends? What are the implications for me? • What is the ‘Delphi process’? Can I use it?
  13. 13. NMC Panel Panel composed of 47 library and technology experts from 16 countries on five continents (including 3 from UK) 13
  14. 14. Short-Term Technology Trends What technology trends did the NMC Horizon panel identify? 14 Seven key categories were identified:
  15. 15. Short-Term Technology Trends Two areas of importance in the short-term (<1 year to adoption) were identified and prioritised: 15 “electronic publishing is redefining the tools between print and digital, still image and video, passive and interactive” Report gives examples of innovative uses e.g. ANU Press, established in 2003 to explore & enable new modes of scholarly publishing. “the way we think about software itself is changing, and whole industries are adjusting to a new world in which sophisticated but simple tools routinely sell for 99 cents or are completely free” TechnologyTrends
  16. 16. What’s Missing? Let’s use the Delphi process (abbreviated version!): • What significant technology trends do you feel will have an impact in the short term (< 1 year) • Tweet (or shout) your ideas! • Session chair will record ideas This is an example of crowd-sourcing ideas from a group of experts 16 Vote on two ideas which you feel are most important: • Area 1 • Area 2 This is an example of how crowd-sourced ideas can be refined and prioritised TechnologyTrends hashtag: #jibs15fut
  17. 17. Medium-Term Drivers What trends driving technology adoption in the medium term (3-5 years?) did the NMC Horizon panel identify? 17 Trends are sorted into three movement-related categories: (1) fast-moving trends that will realize their impact in the next 1-2 years and two categories of slower-moving trends that will realize their impact within (2) 3-5 or (3) 5+ years. After summarising technologies important in short-term, lets look at medium-term drivers of technology adoption TechnologyDrivers
  18. 18. Medium-Term Drivers Two drivers of technology adoption in medium term (3-5 years to adoption) were identified and prioritised: 18 “Once limited to print-based journals and monographic series, scholarly communications now reside in networked environments and can be accessed through an expansive array of publishing platforms”. “Academic & research libraries are gradually embracing the movement toward openness as the Internet has opened the floodgates of information and scientific knowledge”. TechnologyDrivers
  19. 19. What’s Missing? Let’s use the Delphi process: • What significant drivers of technology adoption do you feel will have an impact in the medium term (3-5 years) • Tweet (or shout) your ideas! • Session chair will record ideas This is a further example of crowd-sourcing ideas from a group of experts 19 Vote on two ideas which you feel are most important: • Area 1 • Area 2 This is a further example of how crowd-sourced ideas can be refined based on your experiences TechnologyDrivers hashtag: # jibs15fut
  20. 20. The Challenges What challenges impeding technology adoption in academic and research libraries did the NMC Horizon panel identify? 20 These were classed as: • Solvable Challenges: those that we understand and know how to solve • Difficult Challenges: Those that we understand but for which solutions are elusive • Wicked Challenges: Those that are complex to even define, much less address TheChallenges
  21. 21. The Challenges Two difficult challenges were identified: 21 “It is important for these new digital data sets to be preserved alongside the research derived from them for future use and in longitudinal studies, but this presents a perpetual challenge for library acquisition and archiving practices as formats continue to evolve”. “.. advents in Internet technology are fostering changes in patron behavior, challenging libraries to either participate in the online knowledge exchange or risk becoming obsolete over time. ”. TheChallenges
  22. 22. What’s Missing? Let’s use the Delphi process: • What:  Solvable  Difficult  Wicked challenges are missing? • Tweet (or shout) your ideas! • Session chair will record ideas 22 Choose on one idea per category: • Solvable • Difficult • Wicked This is a further example of how crowd-sourced ideas can be prioritised based on your personal/institutional context TheChallenges hashtag: # jibs15fut
  23. 23. Review NMC Horizon report: • Provides insights into technological trends, driver & barriers for library • Open methodology which caters for experts highlighting their own particular interests But: • It may not be applicable to your specific context • It doesn’t address “What do I need to do next?” 23 Review
  24. 24. The Full NMC Horizon Report NMC Horizon report for Libraries 2014: • 50 pages • 18 topics  6 key trends  6 significant challenges  6 important technologies 24 2 1 3
  25. 25. Tools for Futurists Some tools which can help you to predict the future: • Quick surveys • Observing recent developments Not covered in talk (ideas for reinterpreting the present and providing fresh insights): • The History Of The Web Backwards, UK Web Focus blog, 19 Nov 2007 • Reversible, Reverse History and Side-by-Side Storytelling, OUseful blog, 22 March 2010 25 Tools
  26. 26. The Future Is Already Here! Hands up if you have: Used a mobile device for work-related purposes in bed Options: Yes, No, Rarely or I’m indecisive! 26 “20% of the iPad users spent time with their iPad in bed” 2010 Informal survey (Twitter & blog post), March 2012 “The future is already here - it's just not very evenly distributed” What are the implications of this new ‘platform’? Tools
  27. 27. What Did You Notice Recently? “What did you notice for the first time today (recently)?” • Can be important for trend spotting • May signify that something is becoming mainstream that you hadn’t appreciated before (WiFi on bus, …) 27 Amazon locker (Feb 2013) Video on underground (Dec 2008) Tools Thanks to Tony Hirst
  28. 28. Action Brief Statement Next Steps Having identified future developments of relevance to the organisation, you will now need to convince senior management of the potential. From the Hyperlinked Library MOOC Planning template from assignment 2: Action Brief Statement: Convince ______ that by _______ they will ________ which will ________ because _______. 28Acknowledgements to Michael Stephens and Kyle Jones NextSteps This tool was used in a number of Planning for Future workshops (with voting and prizes)
  29. 29. Risks The Need to Explicitly Address Risks From “Risks and Opportunities Framework for Exploiting the Social Web” by Kelly & Oppenheim: • Summarise risks • Summary risks of not adopting technology • Summarise strategies for minimising (or accepting) risks • Evidence base • Document biases and prejudices 29 Can you innovate without taking risks? NextSteps
  30. 30. Do it For Yourself Do it for yourself! • Slides, exercises, etc. for half-day workshop available under a Creative Commons licence 30 Workshop held at SAOIM 2014 (South Africa) & ELAG 2014 (Bath) conferences. See: • http://ukwebfocus.wordpress.com/events/saoim-2014-lets-predict-the-future-workshop/ • http://ukwebfocus.wordpress.com/events/elag-2014-preparing-for-the-future-workshop/ As described Institutional planning
  31. 31. Warning From The Past Tim Berners-Lee didn’t let evidence of the popularity of Gopher hinder development of the Web 31
  32. 32. The Serenity Prayer • The Serenity Prayer 32Serenity Prayer
  33. 33. Scenario Planning for Addressing the Unexpected 33 Commercialisation Devolved ownership The niche librarian Everyone’s an IT expert Possible scenarios for libraries and the Cloud Steady as she goes Outline challenges and opportunities for libraries based on an expanded version of these scenarios) Everyone’s a librarian
  34. 34. Conclusions We have: • Seen examples of technology trends, drivers & challenges as agreed by NMC Library panel • Learnt about the NMC’s Delphi processes • Contributed our perspectives • Voted on the ideas provided • Heard about follow-up approaches Next steps: • Read the NMC Horizon Report and use it to inform planning processes • Implement an institutional event to help prepare your organisation for the future (run it annually?) • Invite an independent consult to facilitate  34
  35. 35. 35 Continue the Discussion Give your thoughts on a blog post about this session: https://ukwebfocus.wordpress .com/2015/02/25/
  36. 36. Questions? Any questions, comments, …? 36
  37. 37. This presentation, “Identifying and Preparing for Technological Developments”, by Brian Kelly, Cetis is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported Licence Note the licence covers most of the text in this presentation. Quotations may have other licence conditions. Images may also have other licence conditions. Where possible links are provided to the source of images so that licence conditions can be found. 37 Slides and further information available at: https://ukwebfocus.wordpress.com/events/jibs-2015/ Licence and Additional Resources

×