Class 8

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Class 8

  1. 1. Watch out, Tokyo! Godzilla is coming!
  2. 2. Birth and taxes <ul><li>Thomas Schelling (1981) tax proposal: </li></ul><ul><li>In 1981, US income tax laws allowed families to deduct US$1000 for each baby. </li></ul><ul><li>The amount was always fixed, independent of the wealth of the family. </li></ul><ul><li>Schelling proposed richer people should have larger deductions. They surely spend lots more on their babies. </li></ul><ul><li>Do you agree with his proposal? </li></ul>
  3. 3. Most people object… <ul><li>“ There is no reason to extend further privileges to the rich, and certainly not at public expense ”. </li></ul>We’re rich! Can we deduct for our little tiger?
  4. 4. NOW, … <ul><li>Suppose the taxes were reformulated. </li></ul><ul><li>Instead of having a tax deduction in relation to childless families, how about a “childless premium” being added to a tax schedule based on ‘regular’ families with, say, 3 kids? </li></ul>
  5. 5. <ul><li>If childless families have to pay premium taxes, why should very poor people pay the exact same amount as billionaires like the Rockefellers, who can pay orders of magnitude more? </li></ul><ul><li>Why shouldn’t the Rockefellers pay more? </li></ul>
  6. 6. At which point in time is the decision taken? Be the mind!
  7. 7. At which point in time is the decision taken? When the problem is perceived! Be the mind!
  8. 8. Another framing effect… <ul><li>How do we improve decisions? </li></ul><ul><li>We change perception . </li></ul><ul><li>We reject the problem as it is presented and rewrite it, inverting, or shifting gains and losses. </li></ul>
  9. 9. <ul><li>De Groot, and later Simon and colleagues, have shown that chess masters are capable of reproducing with incredible fidelity a chess position after a brief display of a couple of seconds </li></ul><ul><li>However,… </li></ul>
  10. 10. <ul><li>However, they are unable to reproduce random positions. </li></ul><ul><li>What this means is that the perception of meaningful patterns is a key characteristic of chess playing strength. </li></ul><ul><li>And, since it has been also shown that players do not evaluate the tree deeply, the conclusion is that chess playing is a problem of perception . </li></ul>
  11. 11. <ul><li>The Getty Kourus </li></ul>
  12. 12. Recognition-Primed Decision Model no yes Perceived as typical [Prototype or analog] Expectancies Relevant Cues Plausible Goals Recognition has four byproducts Action 1...n Modify yes,but Decisions are taken during the perception of situations Will it Work? Implement Course of Action Evaluate Action (n) [Mental Simulation] Experience the Situation in a Changing Context
  13. 13. Decisive Intuition <ul><li>“ Decisions at prime time” </li></ul><ul><li>When primed with a larger tax deduction for the wealthy, we’re against it… when primed with a larger tax surplus for the wealthy, we tend to favor it. </li></ul><ul><li>Chess players do not ‘reason’, they perceive. </li></ul><ul><li>In naturalistic decision settings, situations prime “obvious” courses of action (and experts feel they did not make decisions at all). </li></ul><ul><ul><li>So a real theory of decision-making lies in intuitive perception . </li></ul></ul>
  14. 14. <ul><li>What is perception? </li></ul><ul><li>(Analogies & abstract roles) </li></ul>
  15. 15. What is perception? <ul><li>For example, what is an A ? </li></ul><ul><li>3 line segments is a specific arrangement, perhaps with some decorations? (Donald Knuth) </li></ul>
  16. 18. hei ~ black in Chinese
  17. 19. What is perception? <ul><li>What is similarity? </li></ul><ul><li>How can we say that X = Y? </li></ul>
  18. 20. Darth Vader
  19. 21. What is perception? <ul><li>Things in the world map to things in the mind? </li></ul><ul><li>Things in the world prime cues, which create expectations & distort semantic space, leading to a hierarchical structure in which things have an abstract role </li></ul><ul><ul><li>(Ali G you’re black) </li></ul></ul>
  20. 22. How do we change perception? <ul><li>Inverting a situation (framing) </li></ul><ul><li>Make an analogy that fits your case </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Quebec will become a lifeboat! </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>This is a new Vietnam </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>This is Germany all over again </li></ul></ul><ul><li>And what are analogies made of? </li></ul>
  21. 23. <ul><li>Abstract Roles </li></ul><ul><li>Once upon a time, in a democratic republic, the head of the executive body criticized the head of the legislative body. </li></ul><ul><li>What should be the answer from the leader of the legislative body? </li></ul>
  22. 24. <ul><li>Abstract roles </li></ul><ul><li>In Feb, 14, 1989, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini issued a Fatwa against Salman Rushdie, for the publication of Satanic Verses. </li></ul><ul><li>A fatwa is a death sentence. Since “though shall not kill” is a sacred commandment from the Roman Catholic Church, it should be obvious that they condemned the fatwa. </li></ul><ul><li>Right? </li></ul>
  23. 25. <ul><li>The Roman Catholic church's reaction to Khomeini's threat was especially remarkable, as it discovered its spiritual kinship with the Imam and was visibly fascinated by the success of the Iranian god's reign. After all, what Khomeini had done was something the Roman Catholic church had not been able to accomplish in its agitation against Martin Scorsese's film &quot;The Last Temptation of Christ.&quot; </li></ul><ul><li>(from “Blasphemy is enlightment”) </li></ul>
  24. 26. <ul><li>In its mouthpiece, L'Osservatore Romano , the Vatican condemned The Satanic Verses as blasphemous. Rushdie had hurt the &quot;religious feelings&quot; of hundreds of millions of the Moslem faithful. Affiliation with the Roman Catholic church demanded rebuke of the blasphemous statements in the book, said the paper. Pope John Paul II saw fit to call Khomeini (after his overdue death) one of the world's greatest religious leaders. </li></ul>
  25. 27. <ul><li>Not only Rome, but other high dignitaries of the church elsewhere got a word in: Cardinal Decourtray, head of the French episcopal congregation, spoke of an &quot;insult to God&quot;; New York's Cardinal O'Connor stated it would be stupid to read Rushdie's book and that it was important to &quot;let Moslems know we disapprove of attacks on their religion.&quot; </li></ul><ul><li>So the church was mapping their own situation with the ‘last temptation’ to the fatwa and ‘satanic verses’… </li></ul>
  26. 28. What’s this guy’s role?
  27. 30. Current theory of Simon and Gobet Brum’s theory
  28. 31. <ul><li>A5, the Copycat project, and the incredible progress of the last decades </li></ul>
  29. 34. The progress in the last 6 decades <ul><li>It would be outrageous if someone in the 1940s would say that in few decades women would become leaders in all fields of science, but now women dominate extremely complex science and technology… </li></ul>
  30. 35. <ul><li>And with higher education, women provide a glimpse of hope for the planet’s overall future. For example, Planet Earth is pregnant, VERY pregnant… </li></ul>
  31. 36. <ul><li>And with higher education, women provide a glimpse of hope for the planet’s overall future. </li></ul><ul><li>Consider Melanie Mitchell’s Copycat project. </li></ul><ul><li>The girls are really doing wonderful things in all areas, including the übergeekmeister kingdom of all, computer science! </li></ul>
  32. 38. Letter string analogies <ul><li>abc  abd </li></ul><ul><li>ijk  ? </li></ul>
  33. 39. Letter string analogies <ul><li>abc  abd </li></ul><ul><li>ijjkkk  ? </li></ul><ul><li>abc  abd </li></ul><ul><li>xyz  ? </li></ul>
  34. 40. <ul><li>aabc  aabd – change the last letter to its successor </li></ul><ul><li>ijkk  ? </li></ul><ul><li>ijkl? - change the last letter to its successor </li></ul>
  35. 41. <ul><li>aabc  aabd – change the last letter to its successor </li></ul><ul><li>ijkk  ? </li></ul><ul><li>ijkl? - change the last letter to its successor </li></ul><ul><li>ijll? – change the last group of letters to its successor </li></ul>
  36. 42. <ul><li>aabc  aabd – change the last letter to its successor </li></ul><ul><li>ijkk  ? </li></ul><ul><li>ijkl? - change the last letter to its successor </li></ul><ul><li>ijll? – change the last group of letters to its successor </li></ul><ul><li>jjkk? – change the first letter to its successor </li></ul>
  37. 43. <ul><li>aabc  aabd – change the last letter to its successor </li></ul><ul><li>ijkk  ? </li></ul><ul><li>ijkl? - change the last letter to its successor </li></ul><ul><li>ijll? – change the last group of letters to its successor </li></ul><ul><li>jjkk? – change the first letter to its successor </li></ul><ul><li>hjkk? - change the first letter to its predecessor </li></ul>
  38. 44. <ul><li>aabc  aabd – change the last letter to its successor </li></ul><ul><li>ijkk  ? </li></ul><ul><li>ijkl? - change the last letter to its successor </li></ul><ul><li>ijll? – change the last group of letters to its successor </li></ul><ul><li>jjkk? – change the first letter to its successor </li></ul><ul><li>hjkk? - change the first letter to its predecessor </li></ul><ul><li>ijlk? – change the last letter of the increasing sequence to its successor </li></ul>
  39. 45. <ul><li>aabc  aabd – change the last letter to its successor </li></ul><ul><li>ijkk  ? </li></ul><ul><li>ijkl? - change the last letter to its successor </li></ul><ul><li>ijll? – change the last group of letters to its successor </li></ul><ul><li>jjkk? – change the first letter to its successor </li></ul><ul><li>hjkk? - change the first letter to its predecessor </li></ul><ul><li>ijlk? – change the last letter of the increasing sequence to its successor </li></ul><ul><li>… There are many interpretations of the rule </li></ul>
  40. 46. <ul><li>We have to find out what fits in the same “abstract roles”. </li></ul><ul><li>Could a machine do it? </li></ul><ul><li>Could a machine do it like people do it? </li></ul>
  41. 48. slipnet
  42. 49. WORKSPACE CONCEPT NETWORK
  43. 61. Ambition and the inner drive
  44. 62. Current research <ul><li>Psychology of decision-making: </li></ul><ul><li>Chess psychology </li></ul><ul><li>integrated theory of analogy-making and computational architecture of intuitive decision-making </li></ul>
  45. 63. Current research <ul><li>Psychology of decision-making: </li></ul><ul><li>A critical look at the rational actor </li></ul><ul><li>proposal of an ‘intuitive actor’: quasi-binary </li></ul>
  46. 64. Future research <ul><li>Decision-making: </li></ul><ul><li>Economics </li></ul><ul><li>ad-hoc theories of mental accounting and framing effects  integrated theory of analogy-making and perception of abstract roles </li></ul><ul><li>Example: driving across town to save US$200 </li></ul>
  47. 65. Future research <ul><li>Decision-making: </li></ul><ul><li>Economics </li></ul><ul><li>mathematical model of the ‘intuitive actor’ </li></ul><ul><li>as experience grows, it should converge to prospect theory </li></ul>
  48. 66. Future research <ul><li>Decision-making: </li></ul><ul><li>Marketing & management science </li></ul><ul><li>choice as affected by analogy-making and perception of abstract roles, and the distortions of semantic space </li></ul>
  49. 67. Later this year: Club of Rome event <ul><li>Limits to growth translation </li></ul><ul><li>Dennis Meadows </li></ul><ul><ul><li>FGV </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>FIESP </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>iFHC </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Senado Federal </li></ul></ul>
  50. 68. Google <ul><li>As an übernerd, the plan is to work on new fluid analogies architectures of: </li></ul><ul><li>Jarbas’ system </li></ul><ul><li>Damasio’s card selection </li></ul><ul><li>Learning in behavioral game theory </li></ul><ul><li>new models of psychology </li></ul><ul><li>distortions of semantic space  Google </li></ul>
  51. 69. An individual’s strong drive and the value of a master degree <ul><li>ONLY THE BIG & THE EPIC STRUGGLE </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Can one day make you dance the “I cannot believe it” dance, which everybody knows is strictly reserved to the “I won the lottery”, “I think she loves me”, and “I discovered something new” moments! </li></ul></ul></ul>
  52. 70. <ul><li>AN ODE TO THE BIG, GREAT, EPICS! </li></ul>

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