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Akbar & greer social housing

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Presentation for Internation educators on social housing issues in Central Queensland

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Akbar & greer social housing

  1. 1. Central East Housing and Homelessness Area Network 2010<br />Modelling Social Housing Need <br />An Overview of Actors & Factors<br />Dr. Delwar Akbar<br />Sustainable Regional Development Program<br />Centre for Environmental Management (CEM)<br />
  2. 2. Modelling Social Housing Need- An overview of Actors & Factors<br />Structure of the Presentation<br /><ul><li>CQ Region – An Overview
  3. 3. SRDP (CEM)’s Expertise in Housing Study
  4. 4. Our Engagement in the CQ Region
  5. 5. Example: Bowen Basin Regional Housing Model(s)
  6. 6. Social Housing Need – Provision and Actors
  7. 7. Social Housing Need – Factors
  8. 8. Proposed Model for Social Housing Need Analysis
  9. 9. Questions </li></li></ul><li>The CQ region – An Overview<br />Second/third highest population growth within QLD<br />
  10. 10. TheCQ Region – An Overview<br />
  11. 11. Resource Boom and the CQ Housing <br />Pressure, State, Impact & Response<br />Economic force (Direct & Indirect & Flow on)<br />Population Dynamics<br />Behavioural Functions<br />HOUSING<br />(Quick, Short & Long)<br />[Social Housing]<br />Social Cohesion & Services Location<br />Spatial Interaction<br />(Push, Pull & Trade-off)<br />Environmental Consideration<br />
  12. 12. CQU’sHousing Research<br />Key areas<br />
  13. 13. Our Engagement in the CQ Region<br /><ul><li>2010: Non-linear and neural housing demand modelling for the Surat Basin Towns
  14. 14. 2010: Housing demand modelling and accommodation impact study for the Grosvenor Mine Project in “Economic Impact Study of Grosvenor Mine Project”.
  15. 15. 2010: Housing demand forecasting and supply analysis for the Coppabella Underground Mine Project in “Social and Economic Impact Study of Coppabella Underground Mine Project”.
  16. 16. 2009: Housing demand forecasting and supply analysis for the Codrilla Mine Project in “Social and Economic Impact Study of Codrilla Mine Project”.
  17. 17. 2009: 2009: Housing demand forecasting and supply analysis for the Boulder Steel Project in “Economic Impact Assessment of the Boulder Steel Project”.
  18. 18. 2009: Housing demand forecasting and supply analysis for Eagle Downs Mine Project in “Economic Impact Study of Eagle Downs Mine Project”.
  19. 19. 2008-09: Assessing Housing and Labour Market Impacts of Mining Developments in Bowen Basin Communities (ACARP Funded Research Project)</li></li></ul><li>Bowen Basin Regional Housing (BBRH) Model<br />Aim<br />To forecast housing demand for a long period in the Bowen Basin region<br />Method<br /><ul><li>Stage 1: Linear extrapolation of demographic variables and housing types
  20. 20. Stage 2: Incorporating local variable(s) into the model: changing labour market and expenditure pattern
  21. 21. Stage 3: Testing the model</li></ul>Assumptions<br /><ul><li>Every household has propensity to own/rent a dwelling unit
  22. 22. Government initiatives to construct public housing in a certain area or any emergency situation would not reflect in this model
  23. 23. Changing housing preferences due to changes in tastes over time has not been considered</li></li></ul><li>Example: Bowen Basin Regional Housing (BBRH) Model<br />The Model<br />Input:Population by age and sex, family type by age, housing type by family type; cumulative population impacts within the town’s threshold<br />Process:Linear extrapolation based on 1996, 2001 and 2006 census data; count household size and occupancy rate by family type and % of changes over time; % of change in labour in-migration within the town’s threshold <br />Output: Household types and dwelling types over a 20-30 year period.<br />
  24. 24. Bowen Basin Regional Housing (BBRH) Model<br />Application of the model on Moranbah– based on ABS data <br />10<br />
  25. 25. Bowen Basin Regional Housing (BBRH) Model<br />Application of the model on Moranbah – Incorporating cumulating impacts <br />
  26. 26. Social Housing Provision in the CQ Region<br /><ul><li>Social housing stock
  27. 27. 508/10,000hh in CQ (except Woorabinda)
  28. 28. Public housing
  29. 29. ATSI housing
  30. 30. Long-term community housing
  31. 31. Local government and affordable housing providers
  32. 32. Social housing clients
  33. 33. Low income (especially in the resource towns)
  34. 34. Centrelink clients (26% in the CQ region compared to 35% in QLD - HS)
  35. 35. Homelessness people (70/10,000p in CQ while 38/10,000p in QLD)
  36. 36. Social housing providers and actors
  37. 37. Churches and Community Organisations (e.g., Anglicare, Roseberry Community Services)
  38. 38. Co-operatives and Large NGOs (e.g., Emu Park Housing Collective Ltd)
  39. 39. Local Government (e.g., RRC)
  40. 40. QLD Government
  41. 41. Commonwealth Government</li></li></ul><li>Social Housing Need in the CQ Region: Factors<br /><ul><li>Mining booms and labour market impacts on the regional and rural and resource (3R) towns:
  42. 42. Higher housing and rental prices
  43. 43. Higher real housing costs for lower income households,
  44. 44. Accommodation costs of split families
  45. 45. Housing affordability to the non-mining labours
  46. 46. Population growth and changing demographic structure
  47. 47. Unemployment, Income and wealth gap
  48. 48. Seniors and disable persons
  49. 49. Family violence, separation and divorce
  50. 50. Mobility
  51. 51. Aspiration</li></li></ul><li>Social Housing Need: Proposed Model <br />CQ Social Housing Demand Forecasting Model 1 – Linear<br /><ul><li>Stage 1: Baseline information structuring (family type by income and dwelling type by family type)
  52. 52. Stage 2: Identifying and adding cumulative impacts
  53. 53. Stage 3: linear extrapolation of the demographic and housing variables
  54. 54. Stage 4: Predicting number of social housing need over a thirty years period</li></li></ul><li>Social Housing Need: Proposed Model<br />CQ Social Housing Demand Forecasting Model 2 – Non-linear<br /><ul><li>Stage 1: Establish relationship among income, occupation household type and dwelling type (Logit model)
  55. 55. Stage 2: Identifying households for social housing - trend
  56. 56. Stage 3: Applying Monte-Carlo Simulation
  57. 57. Stage 4: Predicting number of social housing need over a thirty years period</li></li></ul><li>Social Housing Need: Proposed Model <br />CQ Social Housing Supply Analysis<br /><ul><li>Existing housing stocks
  58. 58. Land availability
  59. 59. Approval processes
  60. 60. Building costs
  61. 61. Availability of builders
  62. 62. Institutional arrangements
  63. 63. Social benefit-cost analysis</li></li></ul><li>Modelling Social Housing Need - An overview of Actors & Factors<br />Social Housing – A Key for Regional Sustainability<br />Plan now – Act immediately <br />!<br />Thank You<br />Questions?<br />

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