Denmark telecommunications report q4 2011


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While there is no new regulatory data available this quarter, BMI has updated our forecasts for the mobile, mobile ARPU and fixed-line markets based on fresh data sourced from Denmark's fixed-line, mobile and broadband operators, supplementing earlier data from the National IT and Telecom Agency (NITA).

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Denmark telecommunications report q4 2011

  1. 1. Denmark Telecommunications Report Q4 2011Published:November 2011No.Of Pages:105Price:US $ 530While there is no new regulatory data available this quarter, BMI has updated our forecastsfor the mobile, mobile ARPU and fixed-line markets based on fresh data sourced fromDenmarks fixed-line, mobile and broadband operators, supplementing earlier data from theNational IT and Telecom Agency (NITA). In addition to updated DenmarkTelecommunications Market forecasts and data analysis, we have included operator tablesfor converged service provision for the first time, detailing the recent performance of theincumbent, TDC’s and TeliaSonera’s wireline performance.Following four quarters of successive subscriber losses from Q210 to Q111, losing a total ofa quarter of a million subscribers, the mobile market returned to growth in Q211. Therewere 173,00 net additions, taking the total to 6.836mn. However, with penetrationremaining above 120% we do not believe this quarter of net additions signals a return togrowth in the market. Instead we expect the market to continue to experience subscriberlosses over the medium term, punctuated by quarters of net additions. It is not possible toforecast when inactive subscriber discounting will occur, and we therefore forecast slowsteady declines in subscriptions However, in reality we expect quarterly growth todemonstrate considerably more volatility.Browse All IT & Telecommunication Market Research ReportsMeanwhile, the market for traditional fixed-line services based on PSTN and ISDNtechnology has been shrinking, due to the growing use of substitute services such as mobilebroadband. During the next five years, we forecast that Denmark’s fixed-line market willshrink at annual average growth of 5.8%.Within fixed-line we expect VoIP to account for anincreasing share of total subscriptions as customers are attracted to the service throughbundled service packages including pay-TV and broadband services. By the end of 2015 weexpect penetration to fall to 33.2% (new population forecasts resulted in higher penetrationrates despite reining in of our fixed-line usage forecasts even further). Denmarks fixedbroadband market appears to heading for a downtrend with TDC and Telenor reportingsubscriber net losses despite efforts to offer a wider range of attractively-priced bundles.BMI believes the decline in fixed broadband subscriptions is the result of increased use ofwireless broadband access technologies.The use of xDSL fixed broadband services is not yet in decline. However, growth has slowedconsiderably to about 1.5% a year and it is mobile broadband that now accounts for themajority of net additions. Fibre, which is now the third-largest form of fixed broadbandaccess, is growing steadily, as is WIMAX. However, the latter is starting from a muchsmaller user base and is likely to fall from favour as UMTS/LTE technologies become morewidely used. In the long term, although we expect slow growth in fixed broadband, we donot expect growth to turn negative because we believe it will be supported by theproliferation of converged services that bundle broadband with pay-TV and fixed voiceservices. We forecast the overall broadband market will serve almost 4mn subscribers by2015, with mobile connections likely to be accounting for more than half of thosesubscribers.
  2. 2. Table Of ContentsExecutive Summary 5SWOT Analysis 6Denmark Mobile SWOT Analysis 6Denmark Wireline SWOT Analysis . 7Denmark Political SWOT . 8Denmark Economic SWOT ... 8Business Environment Analysis 9Western Europe Business Environment Ratings, Q411: Little Change As Economic WoesWeigh Heavily ... 9Western Europe Risk Reward Ratings, Q411 .. 9Denmark 12Industry Forecast Scenario ... 14Mobile 14Table: Denmark Telecoms Sector – Mobile – Historical Data & Forecasts 14Mobile ARPU .. 16Table: Denmark Telecoms Sector – Monthly Blended Mobile ARPU (DKK) – Historical Data &Forecasts ... 16Fixed Line .. 18Table: Denmark Telecoms Sector – Fixed Line – Historical Data & Forecasts .. 18Internet .. 20Table: Denmark Telecoms Sector – Internet – Historical Data & Forecasts ... 20Market Data Analysis .. 22Mobile 22Table: Denmark Mobile Market, Q211 ... 23Table: Denmark Mobile Net Additions (‘000), H111 .. 25Customer Divisions ... 26ARPU 283G . 30LTE (4G) . 33Mobile Contract Wins . 34Table: Mobile Contract Wins 34Mobile Operator Tables . 36Table: Market . 36Table: TDC . 36Table: Telenor Denmark . 37Table: TeliaSonera ... 38Table: 3 Denmark . 40Mobile Content 41Regional Outlook .. 41Table: Smart Meter Race Is On 44Country Outlook ... 45Value-Added Services Timeline. 49Table: Selected VAS Services 49Fixed Line .. 50Broadband . 54Table: Fixed Broadband Accesses By Technology Type, 2008-2010 . 56Table: Broadband Subscribers By Service Provider, 2009-2010 . 57Cable TV . 58FTTH 59WiMAX . 60
  3. 3. Mobile Broadband 60Wireline Contract Wins .. 61Table: Wireline Contract Wins . 61Table: TDC . 62Table: TeliaSonera ... 63Regulatory Environment. 64Overview . 64Denmark: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities . 64Legislation .. 65Recent Developments 66Competitive Landscape .. 69Market Overview . 69Table: Key Players – Denmark Telecoms Sector 69Table: Selected Operator Financial Parameters 69Company Monitor .. 70In Europe, Fibres The Thing For Nexans 70Operator Profiles ... 74TDC .. 74Telenor Denmark .. 80Telia Denmark 87Hi3G Denmark . 93Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview ... 95Fixed Line .. 95Table: Regional Fixed-line Penetration Overview .. 95Internet .. 96Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview 97Mobile 98Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview . 99Glossary Of Terms 100Table: Glossary Of Terms ..100BMI Methodology 101How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .101Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts .101Telecoms Business Environment Ratings 103Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 103Table: Ratings Indicators ..104Weighting ...105Table: Weighting Of Indicators ...105Sources 105About Us:Market Research Reports is an online library of over 50,000 reports and in-depthmarketresearch studies & analysis of over 5000 micro markets. We provide 24/7 online andofflinesupport to our customers. Get in touch with us for your needs of market researchreports.
  4. 4. Contact:Mr.Priyank7557 Rambler road,Suite727,Dallas,TX75231Tel: + 1 888 391 5441E-mail: sales@marketreportsonline.com