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Regional Economic Update
Robert K. Triest
Vice President and Director,
New England Public Policy Center
Federal Reserve Ba...
Federal Reserve Districts
R. Triest Regional Economic Update, April 8, 2016 2/ 14
New England Public Policy Center - Boston Fed
Research & Data
Conferences and Events
Data
Economists
National Economy and
...
Establishment employment growth in New England and
the U.S.
.9.9511.05
Pre-recessionpeak=1
2000m1 2005m1 2010m1 2015m1
dat...
Civilian Unemployment rate (U-3) in New England and the
U.S.
.4.6.811.21.4
Pre-recessionpeak=1
2000m1 2005m1 2010m1 2015m1...
Initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits
.511.522.5
Jan2005=1
2004m1 2006m1 2008m1 2010m1 2012m1 2014m1 2016m1
da...
U-6 unemployment rate
5101520
2003q3 2006q3 2009q3 2012q3 2015q3
date
U.S CT MA ME
NH RI VT
12-month trailing moving avera...
New England and U.S. employment growth by supersector
Construction
Education and Health Services
Finance, Insurance, Real ...
FHFA house price index
50100150200250
1995=100
1985q1 1990q1 1995q1 2000q1 2005q1 2010q1 2015q1
date
U.S. CT MA ME
NH RI V...
State general revenues
.8.911.11.2
Pre-recessionpeak=1
2005m1 2010m1 2015m1
date
CT MA ME
NH RI VT
12-month moving average...
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets 8
times per year.
Janet Yellen
Eric Rosengren Esther George Daniel Tarullo ...
Summary of Economic Projections: (March 2016)
Percentage Change in Real GDP
Figure 1. Medians, central tendencies, and ran...
Summary of Economic Projections: (March 2016)
Unemployment Rate
1
2
3
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Longer
run
R...
Summary of Economic Projections: (March 2016) Personal
Consumption Expenditure Inflation Rate
4
5
6
7
8
2011 2012 2013 2014...
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New England Regional Economic Update

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Robert Triest, vice president and director of the New England Public Policy Center, discusses the economies of the New England states

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New England Regional Economic Update

  1. 1. Regional Economic Update Robert K. Triest Vice President and Director, New England Public Policy Center Federal Reserve Bank of Boston robert.triest@bos.frb.org Lincoln Institute of Land Policy April 8, 2016 The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston or the Federal Reserve System.
  2. 2. Federal Reserve Districts R. Triest Regional Economic Update, April 8, 2016 2/ 14
  3. 3. New England Public Policy Center - Boston Fed Research & Data Conferences and Events Data Economists National Economy and Monetary Policy Papers and Publications Recruiting Regional Economy Research Units Can Subsidized Housing Help Address Homelessness in New England? by Robert Clifford and Osborne Jackson Achieving Greater Fiscal Stability: Guidance for the New England States by Yolanda K. Kodrzycki and Bo Zhao State Highway Funding in New England: The Road to Greater Fiscal Sustainability by Jennifer Weiner Measuring Municipal Fiscal Disparities in Connecticut by Bo Zhao and Jennifer Weiner Research Focus State and Local Fiscal Sustainability Labor Market Supply and Demand in New England Immigration Local Aid Reform Housing Issues News, Events, and Opportunities March 1, 2016 New England Economic Update Presented to the New England Advisory Council February 19, 2016 How Large Should State Rainy Day Funds Be? The Case of Atlantic States Presented at the Fiscal Leaders Meeting Home :: Research & Data New England Public Policy Center The Center promotes better public policy in New England by conducting and disseminating objective, high-quality research and analysis of strategically identified regional economic and policy issues. Features Stay Connected NEPPC Links NEPPC Home About NEPPC NEPPC Research NEPPC Events Data Resources Contact NEPPC  
  4. 4. Establishment employment growth in New England and the U.S. .9.9511.05 Pre-recessionpeak=1 2000m1 2005m1 2010m1 2015m1 date U.S. CT MA ME NH RI VT Seasonally adjusted Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Establishment Survey and Haver Analytics R. Triest Regional Economic Update, April 8, 2016 4/ 14
  5. 5. Civilian Unemployment rate (U-3) in New England and the U.S. .4.6.811.21.4 Pre-recessionpeak=1 2000m1 2005m1 2010m1 2015m1 date U.S. CT MA ME NH RI VT Seasonally adjusted Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Household Survey and Haver Analytics R. Triest Regional Economic Update, April 8, 2016 5/ 14
  6. 6. Initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits .511.522.5 Jan2005=1 2004m1 2006m1 2008m1 2010m1 2012m1 2014m1 2016m1 date U.S. CT MA ME NH RI VT 12-month trailing moving average Source: U.S. Dept. of Labor and Haver Analytics R. Triest Regional Economic Update, April 8, 2016 6/ 14
  7. 7. U-6 unemployment rate 5101520 2003q3 2006q3 2009q3 2012q3 2015q3 date U.S CT MA ME NH RI VT 12-month trailing moving average Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Household Survey and Haver Analytics R. Triest Regional Economic Update, April 8, 2016 7/ 14
  8. 8. New England and U.S. employment growth by supersector Construction Education and Health Services Finance, Insurance, Real Estate Goverment Leisure and Hospitality Manufacturing Prof. and Business Services Other Services Trade, Transp., and Utilities Seasonally adjusted Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Establishment Survey and Haver Analytics Industry employment growth, thousands of jobs Feb '08-Feb '10 Feb '10-Feb '16 R. Triest Regional Economic Update, April 8, 2016 8/ 14
  9. 9. FHFA house price index 50100150200250 1995=100 1985q1 1990q1 1995q1 2000q1 2005q1 2010q1 2015q1 date U.S. CT MA ME NH RI VT Seasonally adjusted Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency and Haver Analytics R. Triest Regional Economic Update, April 8, 2016 9/ 14
  10. 10. State general revenues .8.911.11.2 Pre-recessionpeak=1 2005m1 2010m1 2015m1 date CT MA ME NH RI VT 12-month moving average Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Boston New England Economic Indicators R. Triest Regional Economic Update, April 8, 2016 10/ 14
  11. 11. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets 8 times per year. Janet Yellen Eric Rosengren Esther George Daniel Tarullo Jerome Powell Lael Brainard James Bullard Stanley Fischer William Dudley Loretta Mester FOMC Alternate Members: Charles Evans Michael Strine Patrick Harker Robert Kaplan Neel Kashkari R. Triest Regional Economic Update, April 8, 2016 11/ 14
  12. 12. Summary of Economic Projections: (March 2016) Percentage Change in Real GDP Figure 1. Medians, central tendencies, and ranges of economic projections, 2016–18 and over the longer run Change in real GDP Percent 1 2 3 4 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Longer run Central tendency of projections Range of projections Median of projections Actual Unemployment rate Percent 4 5 6 7 8 9 Source: http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20160316.pdf R. Triest Regional Economic Update, April 8, 2016 12/ 14
  13. 13. Summary of Economic Projections: (March 2016) Unemployment Rate 1 2 3 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Longer run Range of projections Actual Unemployment rate Percent 4 5 6 7 8 9 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Longer run PCE inflation Percent 1 2 3 Source: http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20160316.pdf R. Triest Regional Economic Update, April 8, 2016 13/ 14
  14. 14. Summary of Economic Projections: (March 2016) Personal Consumption Expenditure Inflation Rate 4 5 6 7 8 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Longer run PCE inflation Percent 1 2 3 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Longer run Note: Definitions of variables are in the general note to the projections table. The data for the actual values of the variables are annual. Source: http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20160316.pdf R. Triest Regional Economic Update, April 8, 2016 14/ 14

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