Magandanghaponposainyonglahat. Dahilbahagipoitong International Festival, at masmagalingnamantayongumunawang Ingles, kaysapag-unawanilangTagalog. Sa pagkakataongito ay mag-ingles munatayo, at sisikapinnatingpasimplehinitongpaliwanagsaatingtinatalakayna Climate Change. Kung may hindimaunawaangsalita o paliwanagpakitaasnalamangngkamay at ipapaliwanag n gating mgakaibigansa AGHAM.We have seen that not only Filipinos are suffering from impacts of climate change, but people from other countries, as well. In order to find solutions to this problem which we know is bound to get worse, we have to know what causes it. We will now try to understand how much of this problem is natural, and how much is caused by someone else? So now we turn to science, as this is their task. 2:08
A planet's climate is decided by its mass, its distance from the sun and the composition of its atmosphere. Earth's atmosphere is 78% nitrogen, 21% oxygen, and 1% other gases. These radiatively active gases are known as greenhouse gases because they act as a partial blanket for the thermal radiation from the surface and enable it to be substantially warmer than it would otherwise be, analogous to the effect of a greenhouse. This blanketing is known as the natural greenhouse effect. Without the greenhouse gases, Earth's average temperature would be roughly -20°C. The climates on Mars and Venus are very different, but very stable and highly predictable. The Earth's climate is unstable and rather unpredictable as compared with that of the other two planet
Climate change in IPCC usage refers to a change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g. using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties, and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. It refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity.
Image source: Global Warming ArtRecent global temperatures demonstrate human-induced warming: Over the past 25 years temperatures have increased at a rate of 0.19°C per decade, in very good agreement with predictions based on greenhouse gas increases. Even over the past ten years, despite a decrease in solar forcing, the trend continues to be one of warming. Natural, short-term fluctuations are occurring as usual, but there have been no significant changes in the underlying warming trend. (copenhagen diagnosis, 2009)
Global Sea-level Rise. The loss of ice from the Greenland Ice Sheet has increased and will contribute substantially to global sea level rise.Image source: Global Sea-level Rise." UNEP/GRID-Arendal Maps and Graphics Library. 2009. UNEP/GRID-Arendal. 18 Dec 2009 <http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/global-sea-level-rise>.Copenhagen diagnosis:Current sea-level rise underestimated: Satellites show recent global average sea-level rise (3.4 mm/yr over the past 15 years) to be ~80% above past IPCC predictions. This acceleration in sea-level rise is consistent with a doubling in contribution from melting of glaciers, ice caps, and the Greenland and West-Antarctic ice-sheets. Sea-level predictions revised: By 2100, global sea-level is likely to rise at least twice as much as projected by Working Group 1 of the IPCC AR4; for unmitigated emissions it may well exceed 1 meter. The upper limit has been estimated as ~ 2 meters sea level rise by 2100. Sea level will continue to rise for centuries after global temperatures have been stabilized, and several meters of sea level rise must be expected over the next few centuries.
Acceleration of melting of ice-sheets, glaciers and ice-caps: A wide array of satellite and ice measurements now demonstrate beyond doubt that both the Greenland and Antarctic ice-sheets are losing mass at an increasing rate. Melting of glaciers and ice-caps in other parts of the world has also accelerated since 1990. Rapid Arctic sea-ice decline: Summer-time melting of Arctic sea-ice has accelerated far beyond the expectations of climatemodels. The area of summertime sea-ice melt during 2007-2009 was about 40% less than the average prediction from IPCC AR4 climate models. (Copenhagen diagnosis)Image: Arctic sea ice extent over the five days leading up to and including September 16, 2007 compared to theaverage sea-ice minimum extent for the period 1979- 2006. Sourced from the NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center ScientificVisualization Studio.Copenhagen diagnosis:The observed summer-time melting of Arctic sea-ice has far exceeded the worst-caseprojections from climate models of IPCC AR4.The warming commitment associated with existing atmospheric greenhouse gas levels meansit is very likely that in the coming decades the summer Arctic Ocean will become ice-free,although the precise timing of this remains uncertain.Satellite observations show a small increase of Antarctic sea-ice extent and changes toseasonality, although there is considerable regional variability. This is most likely due tochanges in Southern Ocean winds associated with stratospheric ozone-depletion.
Delay in action risks irreversible damage: Several vulnerable elements in the climate system (e.g. continental ice-sheets,Amazon rainforest, West African monsoon and others) could be pushed towards abrupt or irreversible change if warmingcontinues in a business-as-usual way throughout this century. The risk of transgressing critical thresholds (“tipping points”) increases strongly with ongoing climate change. Thus waiting for higher levels of scientific certainty could mean that some tipping points will be crossed before they are recognized. The turning point must come soon: If global warming is to be limited to a maximum of 2 °C above pre-industrial values, global emissions need to peak between 2015 and 2020 and then decline rapidly. To stabilize climate, a decarbonized global society – with near-zero emissions of CO2 and other long-lived greenhouse gases – needs to be reached well within this century. More specifically, the average annual per-capita emissions will have to shrink to well under 1 metric ton CO2 by 2050. This is 80-95% below the per-capita emissions in developed nations in 2000.Copenhagen diagnosis
Potential climate change impacts . If greenhouse gas concentrations keep rising, climatic changes are likely to result. Those changes will potentially have wide-ranging effects on the environment and socio-economic and related sectors, such as health, agriculture, forests, water resources, coastal areas and biodiversity.Image sourge: "Potential climate change impacts ." UNEP/GRID-Arendal Maps and Graphics Library. 2000. UNEP/GRID-Arendal. 18 Dec 2009 <http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/potential-climate-change-impacts>.Health • Increased deaths due to floods, heat and cold waves, storms, fires, and drought• Changes in the distribution of certain infectious diseases, including malaria• Increased cardiorespiratory diseases• Increased disease spread from contaminated and polluted drinking water supplies• Increased diarrheal disease• Increased malnutritionFood and Agriculture• Reduced crop yields• Shifting growing zones• Increasing hunger and malnutrition• Declining fish yieldsEcosystems Massive extinctions• Animal and plant migration• Increased wildfires, flooding, and drought• Decreased forest coverage, expanding arid lands, and other similar changes•Ocean acidification and coral reef bleaching• Spread of exotic, invasive plants and animalsFresh Water • Increased droughts• Increased heavy precipitation events and flooding• Decreased drinking and freshwater supplies and availability• Glacier melt decline• Increased salinization of freshwater sourcesCoasts• Increased coastal flooding, especially in low-lying islands and heavily populated delta regions• Increased soil erosion• Increased intensity and strength of tropical storms
Source:Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast AsiaArief Anshory Yusuf & Herminia FranciscoEconomy and Environment Program for Southeast AsiaAdaptive capacity is defined as the degree to which adjustments in practices, processes, or structures can moderate or offset potential damage or take advantage of opportunities (from climate change). It can be written in equation form as follows: adaptive capacity = f (socio economic factors, technology, infrastructure)
Source: NSCBPhilippines is disaster proneIn 2008, 253 natural and human-induced disasters affecting 8.5 million peopleMost devastating disaster: tropical cyclones affecting more than 1 million (Typhoon Frank; internal displacements affecting 684,682 (landing as in top place according to the Norwegian Refugee Center)In 2009, Disaster figures will surely double the 2008 figuresOndoy, Pepeng, floodings in MindanaoClimate change aggravates environmental hazardsIn the Philippines, disasters whether climate-induced or not add up to the already impoverished situation of the majority of Filipino families who are living below the poverty lineThe harmful effects of climate change and the disasters it induced bear heavily on the most vulnerable or marginalized segments of the Philippine population especially the poor peasants
3. The Earth has a natural temperature control system. Certain atmospheric gases are critical to this system and are known as greenhouse gases. On average, about one third of the solar radiation that hits the earth is reflected back to space. Of the remainder, some is absorbed by the atmosphere but most is absorbed by the land and oceans. The Earth's surface becomes warm and as a result emits infrared radiation. The greenhouse gases trap the infrared radiation, thus warming the atmosphere. Naturally occurring greenhouse gases include water vapour, carbon dioxide, ozone, methane and nitrous oxide, and together create a natural greenhouse effect. However, human activities are causing greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere to increase. Note: Greenhouse gases are mixed throughout in the atmosphere. (AR4 IPCC)
Carbon dioxide CO2 - second most common GHG. makes up about 25% of the natural greenhouse effect. Burning of oil and gas (for heat, transportation, industry), cement manufacturing, deforestation and other land uses. Also occurs naturally through photosynthesis, volcanoes, forest fires. Methane CH4- third most common GHG ; Oil and gas production, coal mining, rice paddies, dams, landfills. Occurs naturally as things decompose and from livestock digestion. Nitrous oxide N2O - Burning of oil, gas, coal, and wood, fertilizers, coal mining. Also occurs naturally. OTHERS: Water vapor, Sulfur hexafluoride SF6, Perfluocarbons PFCs, Hydroflurocarbons HFCs
Image: Global atmospheric concentration of CO2. Atmospheric CO2 has increased from a pre-industrial concentration of about 280 ppmv to about 367 ppmv at present (ppmv= parts per million by volume). CO2 concentration data from before 1958 are from ice core measurements taken in Antarctica and from 1958 onwards are from the Mauna Loa measurement site. The smooth curve is based on a hundred year running mean. It is evident that the rapid increase in CO2 concentrations has been occurring since the onset of industrialization. The increase has closely followed the increase in CO2 emissions from fossil fuels.Image source: "Global atmospheric concentration of CO2." UNEP/GRID-Arendal Maps and Graphics Library. 2000. UNEP/GRID-Arendal. 18 Dec 2009 <http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/global-atmospheric-concentration-of-co2>.Latest data: Surging greenhouse gas emissions: Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels in 2008 were 40% higher than thosein 1990. Even if global emission rates are stabilized at present-day levels, just 20 more years of emissions would give a25% probability that warming exceeds 2°C, even with zero emissions after 2030. Every year of delayed action increases the chances of exceeding 2°C warming. (Copenhagen Diagnosis, 2009)
Differences In Greenhouse Gas Emission Around The WorldAs the World Resources Institute highlights there is a huge contrast between developed/industrialized nations and poorer developing countries in greenhouse emissions, as well as the reasons for those emissions. For example: In terms of historical emissions, industrialized countries account for roughly 80% of the carbon dioxide buildup in the atmosphere to date. Since 1950, the U.S. has emitted a cumulative total of roughly 50.7 billion tons of carbon, while China (4.6 times more populous) and India (3.5 times more populous) have emitted only 15.7 and 4.2 billion tons respectively (although their numbers will rise).Annually, more than 60 percent of global industrial carbon dioxide emissions originate in industrialized countries, where only about 20 percent of the world’s population resides.Much of the growth in emissions in developing countries results from the provision of basic human needs for growing populations, while emissions in industrialized countries contribute to growth in a standard of living that is already far above that of the average person worldwide. This is exemplified by the large contrasts in per capita carbons emissions between industrialized and developing countries. Per capita emissions of carbon in the U.S. are over 20 times higher than India, 12 times higher than Brazil and seven times higher than China.At the 1997 Kyoto Conference, industrialized countries were committed to an overall reduction of emissions of greenhouse gases to 5.2% below 1990 levels for the period 2008—2012. (The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) said in its 1990 report that a 60% reduction in emissions was needed…)(http://www.globalissues.org/article/233/climate-change-and-global-warming-introduction)
The United States Is The World’s Largest Emitter Of Greenhouse Gases Per CapitaAround 2007, China surpassed the US as the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases in terms of total output. Per person (“per capita”), however, China’s emissions are much smaller.Until recently, the United States was the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases. However, it remains the largest emitter when measured in terms of emissions per person.Due to its much longer period of industrialization, the US has emitted far more into the atmosphere than China (greenhouse gases such as CO2 linger on in the atmosphere for decades).In addition, the US:Accounts for roughly four percent of the world’s population;Accounts for approximately 20% of global emissions and some 40% of industrialized country emissions;
Challenges for People’s Movements and Grassroots Organizations1. Massive grassroots education campaign on the root causes, consequences and genuine & just solutions to climate change.2. Press our governments to come up with comprehensive plan to transform our economies away from dependence on fossil fuels to renewables.3. Oppose market-based false “solutions” that merely abet profit-oriented production & trade and detracts from fundamental social & economic transformations4. Demand shift of public resources away from military spending, debt payments and fossil fuel subsidies towards essential social services and adaptation support for vulnerable communities.5. Demand drastic legally binding reductions in GHG emissions according to the principle of CDR.6. Demand liability payments/compensation from those principally responsible for destroying the climate and ecology, and violating human rights.7. The struggle to solve the problem of climate change and global warming should be in the context of the anti-imperialist movement8. It is integrated in the struggle against globalization policies of the Arroyo government such as EPIRA, Biofuel Act, Mining Act and others9. The movement should also integrated to change the political structure of the country and towards national democracy.
Help communities cope and respond to environmentPopularize and implement proper and sustainable use of our natural resources – in line with people's welfare and interests, proper technology, and mitigation measuresPopularize correct perspective towards environmental issues – pro-people, patriotic, and scientific orientation Pagsulong ng pamahalaan na magsasalamin ng interest ng mamaya
Climate change science, politics and urgent action
Outline• Introduction• The science of globalwarming• Who is to blame?• Climate crisis in thePhilippines• Half Measures & FalseSolutions• Peoples responses• Our calls
Weatherthe particular state of the atmosphere in a certainregion at a certain time. e.g. Rainy, windy, sunny, cloudyClimatethe long term weather trend of a certain region over atime period e.g. Tropical, temperate Climate Change change in the state of the climate that can be identified by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties, and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer Warming of the climate system is unequivocal
Temperature riseRise in temperature wasunprecedented since 18501900s – hottest century1995 to 2006, (except1996)-- hottest decade2005 and 1998 – hottestyears;Increase in temperature inthe last 50 years was twicefaster than last 100 years
Melting snow and ice Minimum arctic sea-ice extent from 1979 to 2007
Extreme weather events Increasing Strength and frequency of Typhoons (Category 4/5)Source: Science Magazine, Sep 16, 2005
Vulnerability Factors and conditions adversely affecting the ability of the community to respond,cope with or recover easily from disaster events. High Poverty Incidence High Inflation Rates Low wages despite the increasing daily cost of living High unemployment and underemployment rate Landlessness/Inequitable distribution of country’s resources
Poor countries like the Philippines are vulnerableto enhanced hazards due to climate change Impacts are worse 100% 80% Lack of Percentage affected 60% LDC financial,institutional and Deving CIT technological capacity and 40% Deved access to knowledge 20% 0% Impact disproportionately 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s upon poor within countries 4,000 Exacerbates inequities in Number affected (Millions) 3,000 health status and access to 2,000 Deved CIT Deving adequate food, clean water LDC and other resources. 1,000 - 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s
Climate Change in the Philippines From 27 typhoons during the period 2000-2003, the number ominously increased to 39 from 2004-2007 The typhoons are getting stronger and stronger, especially since the late 1990s. Typhoon signal no. 4 is a fairly recent category. Total damages brought about by typhoons increased by 408% from 2003 to 2006 Seven of the 20 deadliest typhoons in the Philippines covering the period 1947-2006 occurred in 1990-2006
Greenhouse effect Increasing levels of GHGs in the atmosphere make for a warmer world leading to abrupt changes in climate! Greenhouse gases (GHGs) trap heat from the sun to keep the Earth warm. CO2 N2O CO2 CO2 HFCs Methane N2O Nitrous Oxide CO2 CH4 CH4Carbon Dioxide HFCs CH4 NO2 CH N2O PFCs SF6CO2 CO2 CO2 4 CH4 CO2 2 CO SF6CO2 CO2CO SF6 SF6 2 HFCs H2O PFCsWater vapor UNEP
GHG gases Generated by Carbon Dioxide Fossil fuel combustion, land clearing for (CO2) agriculture, cement production Livestock production, extraction of fossil fuels, Methane (CH4) rice cultivation, landfills, sewageNitrous Oxide (N2O) Industrial processes, fertilizer use Hydrofluoro- Leakage from refrigerators, aerosols, air carbons (HFCs) conditioners Aluminum production, semiconductor Perfluoro-carbons industrySulfur Hexafluoride (SF6) Electrical insulationmagnesium smelting
US and other imperialist countries US is the largest emtter in volume and per capita
Transnational corporations 1998, 4 out of the 11 biggest 2004, the 10 biggest oil TNCs in producers of oil are TNCs (BP the US control around 55% of Amoco-Arco, Exxon Mobil, the oil production while the top Royal Dutch Shell at Chevron- 50 controls 77% Texaco). 2006, Exxon Mobil Corporation 2005, oil TNCs like British reported — TNC having the Petroleum, Exxon Mobil, Shell biggest GHG emission in the world (150 million tons-6th Dutch controls 18% of global oil largest if it were a country ) – reserves and a net profit of $39.5 billion TNCs owns the biggest from gross income of $377.6 agricultural plantations, logging billion corporations, large dams, energy plants, etc..
Role of International finance International capital Finance Stimulate production and sale of consumer goods Cover debt service burden and budgetary deficits Developing countries forced to follow prescriptions of the IMF and the WB which open up resources and markets
Philippine Government Large scale plunder of the environment Without benefit to the majority of our people Benefits only a small segment of society Government policies aggravates our climate vulnerability Biofuels Act Oil deregulation law Mining Act 1995 EPIRA Forestry Code Neoliberal Globalization Corruption
Philippine GHG emissionsGHGs in RP 1999, Philippines emitted 75,998,000 metric tons of CO2 or 0.3% of world total emission. From 1990 to 1999 our CO2 emission increased by 72%. Currently we have a higher CO2 emission than some industrialized countries like Switzerland (0.1%), New Zealand (0.1%), Sweden (0.2%), Ireland (0.2%) and Norway (0.2%), and also to some oil producing countries (OPEC members) like Bahrain (0.1%), Libya (0.2%), Nigeria (0.2%) and Kuwait (0.2%)
Climate change timeline 1970 First Earth Day. Environmental movement attains strong influence, spreads concern about global degradation. 1979: First World Climate Conference adopts climate change as major issue and calls on governments "to foresee and prevent potential manmade changes in climate.” 1985: First major international conference on the greenhouse effect at Villach, Austria, warns that greenhouse gases will "in the first half of the next century, cause a rise of global mean temperature which is greater than any in mans history."
1990 First IPCC report says world has been warming and future warming seems likely. Industry lobbyists and some scientists dispute the tentative conclusions. 1992: Climate Change Convention, signed by 154 nations in Rio, agrees to prevent "dangerous" warming from greenhouse gases and sets initial target of reducing emissions from industrialised countries to 1990 levels by the year 2000.
United Nations Framework Conventionon Climate Change (UNFCCC) Ultimate Objective is the "stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic human-induced interference with the climate system. Overarching Principle: Equity and Common but Differentiated Responsibilities
UNFCCC and KYOTO PROTOCOL International agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) reduce GHG emissions, on average by about 5% between 2008-2012 relative to 1990 The flexibility mechanisms • Funding mechanisms to assist developing countries 175 countries except US and Australia (Australia later signed on Kyoto)
PREAMBLE ...“Noting that the largest share of historical and current global emissions of greenhouse gases has originated in developed countries, that per capita emissions in developing countries are still relatively low, and that the share of global emissions originating in developing countries will grow to meet their social and development needs”
PRINCIPLES Article 3.2 specific needs and special circumstances of developing country Parties that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change Article 3.3 Precautionary measures: comprehensive response, socio-economic contexts, comprise all economic sectors Article 3.4 sustainable development; policies to protect the climate system should be integrated with national development programs, taking into account that economic development is essential for adopting measures to address climate change.
Commitment on Financial Resources, Art 4.3-4.4 Developed country Parties “shall provide new and additional financial resources” to Meet the agreed full costs incurred by developing country Parties in preparing their national communications Meet the agreed full incremental costs of implementation of obligations under Article 4.1 Taking into account the need for adequacy and predictability in the flow of funds, and the importance of appropriate burden sharing among the developed country Parties.
Commitment on Adaptation Article 4.4 Developed country Parties …shall also assist the developing country Parties that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change in meeting costs of adaptation to those adverse effects. Financing of adaptation is a commitment, not a concession, or social responsibility, or an act of charity. “Particular vulnerabilities defined in the Convention (Arts. 4.8, 4.9, 4.10;
Technology Transfer, Article 4.5 Developed country Parties…”shall take all practicable steps to promote, facilitate and finance, as appropriate, the transfer of, or access to, environmentally sound technologies and know-how to other Parties, particularly developing country Parties..” “support the development and enhancement of endogenous capacities and technologies of developing country Parties…” Other Parties and organizations … may also assist in facilitating the transfer of such technologies.
Short termCommunity based disasterresponseCapacity building for Long termvulnerable communities Defend our patrimony andPopularize and implement communities against foreignproper and sustainable use of and local plunderour natural resources Work for social change –mass education campaigns incommunities on the root structural and systematic;causes, consequences and towards a society where humangenuine solutions to climate rights, national patrimony,change genuine land reform, and national industrialization is pursued
Deep and drastic cuts by the world’s top current and historical emitters Protect our environment and national resources from imperialist plunder Uphold the right of nations to advance and develop in sustainable and ecological manner, ensure self sufficiency in food and agriculture Defend our peoples rights to access and control the commons, genuine agrarian reform Work towards self-reliant ustainable, independent and progressive local economy.
In the end, those gambling in Las Vegas lose morethan they gain. As a society, we are gambling –with our big banks, with our nuclear powerfacilities, with our planet. As in Las Vegas, thelucky few - the bankers that put our economy atrisk and the owners of energy companies that putour planet at risk - may walk off with a mint. Buton average and almost certainly, we as a society,like all gamblers, will lose.-Joseph Stiglitz
Multisectoral formations Philippine Climate Watch Alliance: broad, national Peoples Action on Climate c Change: International Peoples Movement on Climate Change: International, Peoples Protocol on Climate Change