The current issue and full text archive of this journal is available at www.emeraldinsight.com/1463-5771.htmBIJ18,5 Roadmapping the convergence of technologies for services over broadband668 A benchmarking effort Tugrul U. Daim Portland State University, Portland, Oregon, USA, and Pranabesh Dash Intel Corporation, Hillsboro, Oregon, USA Abstract Purpose – This paper aims to present an application of the technology roadmapping approach for exploring the implications of technologies converging for a service sector. Design/methodology/approach – The paper uses the fundamental concepts behind creating a technology roadmap. These include market and business analysis, product analysis, technology analysis and resource allocation. Findings – The study demonstrates the use and modiﬁcation of technology roadmaps for technology driven service business segments. Originality/value – The process of developing a roadmap for services over broadband presented in this paper can be used as a standard process of developing a technology roadmap for any organization in a similar business. Keywords Strategic planning, Services industries, Mix mapping, Digital technology, Broadband networks Paper type Research paper Introduction Technology Roadmapping (TRM) which is getting broad attention in technology industry is a technique that helps organizations to do strategic planning and align technology with business objectives. This paper presents creation of a technology roadmap to deliver services for digital data streaming over broadband. The ever-expanding demand for mobility and digital content has created great market opportunities for cable and telecom companies. Products such as desktop, laptop, PDAs, cell phones, and digital players are part of the main customer drivers in accessing the digital contents. Every digital content owner is eager to access their paid and private information from everywhere. Therefore, there is a real demand for reliable portable solution to enable the mobile users to be more productive and happier. A number of companies around the world already deliver similar products but limited services. This paper explores what it would take to offer the service in the NorthwestBenchmarking: An International USA. A benchmarking effort will be conducted among the actual companies with actualJournal products. The market analysis, benchmarking and roadmapping process presented inVol. 18 No. 5, 2011pp. 668-693 this study can be used by any company interested in offering similar services in a region.q Emerald Group Publishing Limited1463-5771 A hypothetical company named Company X, planning to be a player in the market, willDOI 10.1108/14635771111166811 be assumed for which the aforementioned analyses are conducted. The product features
will be introduced progressively to either accommodate newer technologies or introduce Roadmappingother changes. The study includes creation of roadmaps of market, product, technology, the convergenceresearch and development (R&D) and environment. These factors are considered veryimportant for organizations that are sensitive to emerging technologies in the maturing of technologiesbroadband market. The proposed approach at the end will help identify marketopportunities. Considering traditional TRM methodologies the effect of environmenthas been identiﬁed as a gap. This paper emphasizes the importance of environment 669along with the traditional TRM layers. The process of developing a roadmap for servicesover broadband presented in this paper can be used as a standard process of developinga technology roadmap for any organization in similar business. The availability of broadband and the arrival of WiMax technology in the Portlandmetro area (WiMAX, 2010) opened a lot of opportunities for new products and services.To exploit the availability of bandwidth and reach of internet, companies can makeany legal digital content (Russell, 2008) that one can access on a home or ﬁxed systemgo mobile (Digital TV Europe, 2010) while keeping security in mind. There are situations when people want to show the software installed on their homecomputer to a friend at a location away from home, using a mobile laptop. Anothersituation to consider is where a person has subscribed to certain premier channels onCable TV but is traveling, and hence missing out on some of the favorite programs.If the user has paid for it, why should there be the constraint that he or she cannot watchit while away from home? Also a situation where a person wants to access his voicemail,fax received at home or state of home security system to be accessible from anywhere. TRM is planning framework widely used in industry for strategic and long-rangeplanning. The traditional TRM presented by Phaal et al. (2004) consists of three layers(technology, products and markets). This paper will emphasize on the importance offuture environment conditions (R&D and government policies). The environmentcondition is presented as an additional layer in the TRM. This study will clearly showhow the additional factors can have high inﬂuence on the destiny of the technology. The paper is organized as follows. A hypothetical company named Company X,planning to be a player in the marker, is assumed whose proﬁle matches a typicalconsumer for this study. First, an overview of the company and its product offerings arepresented. Followed by the overview, the impact of the environment and policy that affectsfunctioning of Company X in the market is studied. Then a detailed market analysis isconducted by segmenting the market and discussing the customer value drivers (CVDs)for Company X. Next a detailed product technology analysis is presented thatsubsequently helps in scenario planning and roadmapping presented in the ﬁnal section.Literature reviewTRM helps organizations communicate and explore relationships between evolving anddeveloping markets, products and technologies over time (Phaal et al., 2004). TRM canalso be used as a tool to integrate corporate strategy with technology strategy for betterproﬁtability (Phaal et al., 2005; Kameoka et al., 2003). The TRM process being very ﬂexiblethere are multiple ways to representing a technology roadmap and are used for differentpurposes (Phaal et al., 2004; Phaal and Muller, 2009). The ﬂexibility of TRM process wasseen as a roadblock for adoption in case of some organizations. There were some proposedapproaches to customize the TRM process to achieve a balance between personalizationand standardization (Lee and Park, 2005). TRM approach also has been suggested to help
BIJ better decision making in long term. The decisions under consideration are new18,5 technology product development by incorporating factors beyond ﬁnance based and return on investment (Petrick and Echols, 2004). Roadmaps provide a compact visual of the high-level view of an organization and the technology under review. The visual nature of the roadmap supports better communication among stakeholders and considered to be the main reason behind the attractiveness of TRM method (Phaal and Muller, 2009).670 Technology development is part of a complex system of knowledge generation and transfer and has dependencies on factors such as technical barriers, associated change required and organization strategy. Most of the time TRM process assumes a given future and ﬁnds possible paths to get there. The future might consists of alternatives and it is important to incorporate it into the TRM process (Lizaso and Reger, 2004). Scenario planning is one of the tools for making strategic decisions in an environment of uncertainty. It helps anticipate changes and identify discontinuities, reduces risk, provides a common framework for discussing and dealing with complex situations (Chermack et al., 2001). Wide deployment of broadband has enabled real-time and rich-media collaboration. This has helped create new markets and strategies for broadband-based technologies. This topic has been dealt in detail in the compilation by Austin and Bradley (2005). Though the work does not create a roadmap for broadband in the traditional sense it clearly demonstrated the importance of policy making and environment on future of broadband. The TRM process presented here tries to incorporate the environment and scenarios during roadmap creation. Client overview A typical consumer of this study is a company that is already in the video streaming, providing limited place-shifting (Sling Media, 2010) or time-shifting (The eMarketer Blog) solutions and content providers such as cable TV service providers. Though new entrants are also targeted but it might take more capital investment to acquire technology and creating relationships with content providers (Digital TV Europe, 2010). After doing a review of various solutions in the domain that exists today, almost all of them include some dedicated hardware that goes along with application software (Sling Media, 2010; Video Streamer; Place-Shifter; Mobile TV, 2010; TV2MEw, 2010; SonyStyle USA, 2010; Orb, 2010). Company X’s proposed solution will focus on software creation for various mobile platforms while trying to minimize the target hardware-related cost. A company having experience in streaming software applications will have an advantage over other companies. Proﬁt margins will vary depending on the investment and decisions to develop technology in-house or, acquire existing technology. Clients considered here are medium to large-sized companies for its business. Companies with revenue over $250M and more than 5,000 employees qualify as large businesses. Medium businesses can have anywhere from a few hundred employees to a couple of thousands. Product overview The digital revolution has reached the home front, primarily with the introduction of the internet and its associated technologies. The internet was originally designed to act as a mechanism to exchange electronic data. This has begun a worldwide demand for access to computing and communications from anyplace at anytime (Internet Trends, Morgan Stanley, 2010).
Company X product will be a “place-shifting” solution which enables to user not to Roadmappingbe restricted by location for certain content, similar to what “time-shifting” had done the convergencefor scheduling. With special interconnecting cables and networking adjustments onecan watch TV or TiVo, or DVD player from just about anywhere (ArsTechnica, 2010a) of technologiesone can get a network connection – be it at ofﬁce, in a hotel room, or the other side ofthe planet. Company X targets to transform any internet connected/enabled laptop,PC, PDA or cell phone to a personal media device. Company X proposes to start out 671with a stand-alone product – a combination of hardware and software solution, tryingto leverage as much as possible from existing solutions (Figure 1). The customers pay a one-time device cost and install the Company X compatiblehardware device at home. The Company X hardware at home can connect to anycomponent, storing or streaming media content. The Company X software is aclient-installation required for the mobile devices which will act as receivers for thedata. The onus is completely on the customers to ensure legal streaming of data.Product introductionThe Company X box converts analog signals to digital signal (if needed) (Fcc.gov,2010a), converts those into IP packets (BroadbandSuitee, 2008) and sends securely overinternet to the authorized device. The analog signal can be the analog TV signal or,FM radio signals. The hardware-encoding device does the encryption and compression(Russell, 2008) of the content before sending it over the internet. The compression is donewith connection speed consideration to deliver high quality streaming. Industrystandard encryption is done to meet minimum security requirements. Company X software gets installed on the mobile device such as a laptop, PDA orcell phone. The user can login to the home network remotely using secureauthentication and stream content from TV or other digital storage device. Some of the product features of Company X include: . Remote access to digital (streaming) data on cell phone, laptop, PDA, remote PC, IP TV. . Wireless-enabled Company X hardware. . Multicast feature support (simultaneous remote and local viewing). . Multiple source, multiple user support. . Peer-to-peer sharing. . Pause, rewind, fast forward controls. . Record and burn to DVD. Content subscription Internet Data in PC ABM HW ABM SW Figure 1. "streaming "client/receiver" Company X solution server" overview
BIJ Product description18,5 The following devices can be connected to Company X hardware box at home using a cable for the input signal – TV or IPTV, Home PC, DVR, DVD player, satellite radio receiver. The Company X box can also connect to any wireless enabled device at home such as a laptop, PDA or, cell phone. Company X is introduced with the unicast feature where at any point of time, only a672 single remote device can be connected to access the content. In the future products, multicasting will be supported where multiple remote devices can connect and access the same content. However, it will be done only with content provider’s consent and with taking care of digital distribution rights. The idea is somewhat similar to that of the pay-per-view service. In case of multicasting, the appropriate content provider will be notiﬁed for billing purposes. Peer-to-peer connection support will help sharing of the content between customers owning Company X box as long as the legalities are met (Russell, 2008). Company X solution alternatives are the following. Software-only solution . Supports TV, PC, mobile device (laptop/cell phone/PDA). . Needs a PC at home and a TV tuner card. . Company X server software on PC and client software on mobile devices. Hardware/software solution . Supports TV, mobile device (laptop/cell phone/PDA). . Company X compatible hardware connected to TV and other home media storage devices. . Company X client software on mobile devices. Value proposition Company X proposes a solution for consumers that want to have access to all digital media at home even while they are traveling. The user who might have subscribed to a lot of TV programs but is not able to access while outside of home. Company X makes it possible by providing a secure and uniﬁed access to contents stored on a personal computer, digital television and any other digital storage media devices. The attractiveness of the solution is that it envisions a single point of control for all aspects of a consumer’s digital home incorporating advanced wireless technology and provides value to the customer at a very reasonable cost. The competition in this market space is still not clearly deﬁned. However, a host of companies such as Sling Media (2010), Monsoon Multimedia (Video Streamer; Place-Shifter; Mobile TV, 2010), TV2Me (TV2MEw, 2010), etc. are already present in this domain. Large players such as Sony (SonyStyle USA, 2010), Apple (Apple TV, 2010), Microsoft (Windows Media Center, 2010), Intel (Intelw Viive Technology, 2006), etc. are also showing interest in this market space. A gap analysis of the functionalities in the product against those currently present in these competitive products. Figure 2 shows the data in a tabular form. The market is divided into three segments, main street, techno-geek and media savvy, explained in details later in the market segment section.
Roadmapping the convergence Sling box Competitive COMPA Vulkano TV2Me Market advantage of technologies NYX Orb TV 2011 Main 673 Radio 2011 All Media, Data sources Computer 2011 tech Media Med, 2011 storage tech Video 2013 Tech phone Internal conn. Wireless 2011 Tech Main, Home 2011 Multi casting med Med, Remote 2013 tech Figure 2. Gap analyses for competitive products High Medium LowEnvironment and policyOur literature search identiﬁed the major factors that inﬂuence the success of aproduct. The factors can be broadly divided into two categories, environment (DigitalMedia Content Creation Technology Roadmap, 2009; Hwang, 2005) and technology.Figure 3 shows how external environment will be affecting the development of theCompany X solution over the years. The section “A” in the ﬁgure shows the variousexternal factors that will affect the product releases (product type 1, product type 2,etc.) from Company X over the next few years. Section “B” shows the technologies thatCompany X depends on for providing the solution.Content providersOwing to the stringent copyright policies for rebroadcast of contents, it is very importantto create tie-up with content providers and have streaming rights. The following contentproviders need to be considered for negotiation of content streaming rights: . TV content broadcasters such as ABC (ABC.com, 2010). . Cable TV provider such as Comcastw (Comcast Ofﬁcial Site, 2010).
BIJ E Content provider Scenario I18,5 n v Competitor Policy/regulation Scenario II i r Ecosystem/infrastructure Market drivers o n674 m e Product type 4 2013 n Product type 3 2012 t Product type 2 2011 Technologies Product type 1 2011 Compression 2010 Security 2010 Video mail serviceFigure 3. Wired connection Digital rightsEffect of environment Multicasting Managementon product development Stream live video Wireless connection . Movie studios such as Disneyw (Disney, 2010). . Internet content providers such as EROS entertainment (Eros Entertainment, 2010). . Satellite radio such as SIRIUSw (SIRIUS Satellite Radio, 2010). . Local FM radio channels. Most of the TV programs get to customers’ home through cable. The cable providers sometimes just act as carriers and do not interfere with the content being distributed. However, the retransmission rights still need to be discussed with the source owners such as broadcast TV channels and movie studies that provide the content for movie channels. Cable TV providers control mostly the advertising and pay per view channel accesses (Fcc.gov, 2010b). Internet content providers allow their content to be viewed at home on PCs or IP-enabled TVs. Many of these content providers have special agreement with the internet service providers to customer’s home. The streaming of such content through the home PC over internet to a mobile device might require consent from the content providers. If a user has subscribed to satellite radio service, he or she needs a signal decoder/receiver to enjoy the content. However, this is not portable enough to be moved around. With Company X, this receiver could be placed at home and remote access of programs can be supported. Company X’s technology will help convert the decoded signals to IP packets and stream it. Again retransmission rights have to be acquired from the satellite radio companies. Competitors Although there are currently no players in the digital data streaming market in the Portland area, few companies are getting into this industry in other parts of the world: Slingbox (Web TV wire, 2010), HAVA/Vulkano (Video Streamer; Place-Shifter; Mobile TV, 2010) and Sony LFX (SonyStyle USA, 2010). Slingbox solution is a combination of hardware and software; however there is no built-in wireless support in it. Vulkano is a comparable product with built-in wireless networking support from Monsoon
multimedia and Sony’s location-free TV has added PSP compatibility in addition to Roadmappingwireless networking support. TV2Me (TV2MEw, 2010) provides with exceptional the convergencestreaming video quality on PC, large-screen TV, PDA or phone but it is very expensive.Further details are available at Sadoun.com (2010). of technologiesGovernment policyPolicies are what drive innovation, widespread adoption of a technology or product 675and encourage competition. Based on the nature of the local government’s role, fourcategories of actions can be distinguished (Gillet et al., 2004): (1) government as broadband user; (2) government as neutral rule-maker; (3) government as ﬁnancier; and (4) government as infrastructure developer.As stated in (Hwang, 2005): Federal and state policymakers are exploring initiatives to promote the deployment and adoption of broadband services, and in recent years, an increasing number of local governments have joined them. While the ﬁrst generation of narrowband dial-up access was able to piggyback on the near universal availability of the mature telephone network, broadband relies on communications infrastructure that is both more heterogeneous and less evenly distributed.The same paper states regarding a 1999 telecommunications survey conducted by theInternational City/County Management Association that found 93 percent of localgovernments had a franchise agreement with a cable company, with a 12.2-yearaverage term length. A speciﬁc example of Portland, Oregon is mentioned whichattempted to force the cable providers to offer unrestricted access to the cable networkby unafﬁliated Internet Service Providers (Gillet et al., 2004). With no clarity in the state of legislation in the USA, the world of fair use makesway for a dodgy environment for digital content reuse scenarios. The conﬂict betweenHollywood and software developers over the creation of DVD backups is a goodexample to emphasize the issues associated with fair use rules (Wired.com, 2010).To add to the complication US Copyright Law makes it illegal to circumventencryption for any kind of use (ArsTechnica, 2010a). For place-shifting, the situation iseven more confusing because the ability to record contents and the basic portability ofcontent are supported by the digital devices by default (HomeTheater.about.com, 2010)and respected by the right holders. Recording and moving content online, however,upsets the content producers (ArsTechnica, 2010a). The license requirement in the scenario of streaming music over the internet, fromone system to another, is still murky (IP Communications, 2010) and the situation seemssimilar in case of video. The digital content owner wants to draw extra/continuousrevenue from once legally purchased content by one user and how it is shared ordistributed later (Intellectual Property Watch, 2010). It is clear that broadcasters are not doing enough to reach to their customers. Theexisting gaps are ﬁlled by products like Slingbox and when content providers realizethat someone else is exploiting the gap, they also want a share of the pie (ArsTechnica,2010b). It seems time-shifting has come of age as the practice been upheld by the courts,
BIJ and TiVo like devices have become widespread. Place-shifting needs a similar18,5 legislation in place and should help protect consumer rights while not constricting innovation (ArsTechnica, 2010a). Ecosystem The ecosystem involved with the Company X’s product is wide and varied. Figure 1676 show how the product ﬁts into the complete picture of content delivery. The different players involved are the following: . cable TV content providers; . cellular service providers; . internet service providers; and . government agencies and policy makers. As stated earlier broadcasters want to make money from certain kind of content “place-shifted” by entities like Slingmedia. The independent operation of content providers and “place-shifters” is having is having a negative effect on content providers’ business models (ArsTechnica, 2010b). Company X, on the other hand, suggests creating a new business model where all these stakeholders are involved and play a role. The future of this industry might need collaboration between the content providers, government and the innovating companies. Scenarios Some of the scenarios for Company X to take into consideration are as follows: Scenario 1. Content providers object to Company X’s feature for multicasting. Multicasting would mean multiple users being able to access content. This would in turn result in content providers modifying their policy of one-user per connection. There needs to be a way in which billing for each additional viewer or channel needs to be devised. Scenario 2. Cable TV company provides Company X box’s functionalities in its own setup box. This means Company X will work with cable TV companies to make sure that the ecosystem for Company X solution is standardized and focus completely on its software solution. Market analysis As seen in the research, there is a huge potential in this market that is still untapped. The streaming media market is still in an introductory phase. And there is a growing need for this technology. The streaming media market revenue is projected to hit $6 billion by 2011, up from $915 million in 2005 (Insight Research, 2010). Major media distribution solutions existing today are PC based (upcoming devices like mobile phones are yet to work seamlessly with existing TV and other devices). However, the consumer electronics-based solution, which Company X offers, is expected to enhance the PC media server-based systems in the next few years. Market segment overview The markets for the streaming media are segmented into three classes for simplicity, namely, “main street”, “media savvy” and “techno-geek” as shown in Figure 4.
Roadmapping the convergence of technologies 677 Figure 4. Market segment overviewThese signify the mass market, the sophisticated market, and the experimental market.Although media savvy present the biggest market size and high potential growth rate,the segment attractiveness analysis shows that the preference of main street andtechno-geek also matches Company X’s capability, potential and focus. This ﬁndingprovides a direction for Company X’s future product strategy development and marketdriver planning. By focusing on techno-geek, Company X can also monitor theevolution of the streaming media industry and better react to the trend shift. Main street. The “main street” group love their TV, movies, and music but are notconcerned about where they come from. This consumer group is made of people whoare not technology enthusiasts. They are typically more than 35 years old, workingmen and women, who have low computer literacy. They use electronic equipment suchas audio-video systems, computers, electronic security systems, personal organizers,cell phones, etc. – but they have very little understanding of the technology behindthese products. Though these consumers are price-sensitive, their buying decision isnot completely inﬂuenced by price of the product. This group’s need for Company X solution can be attributed to their heavydependence on the very simple use of complex technologies. They want to access theirTV programs while at a friend or neighbor’s place. These people seem to naturally ﬁtin the proﬁle of the “late majority” in the “Technology adoption life cycle” (Moore andMcKenna, 2002). They like to buy proven, bundled, pre-assembled packages, whichthey can start using with minimum setups. Quality and post-sale service and support isa major factor in this group’s buying decisions. This group is very sensitive to pastexperiences and will not soon forget an unpleasant experience with a particular brand.This will inﬂuence future purchase decisions. This segment inherently resists newtechnology products. Nevertheless, this segment has a huge potential when theproposed product becomes popular in the mainstream market. Media savvy. The “media savvy” group is very knowledgeable about the latest mediacontents coming to the marketplace and always wants to be at the forefront. This groupof people is mostly traveling and would like to not have to carry their data around withthem. They would like seamless access to all digital content at home as well astheir favorite subscribed TV programs while they are away from home.
BIJ This segment is comprised of consumers who share some of the “techno-geek” users’18,5 ability to relate to technology, but ultimately they are driven by the strong sense of the practical applications of the product (the ability of that product to achieve a high level of satisfaction) and how they are perceived by their friends (These people do not want to feel “left behind”. The status of having new and proven technology gives them the feeling of a smart consumer who is able to make good choices and get the most out of a purchase).678 They do have a strong interest in incorporating technology in their lifestyle. They have basic knowledge of technology components and their uses, and they are willing to experiment to a certain degree, but are unwilling to adopt them until they have been validated by the market (i.e. they are not the ﬁrst movers, but may be willing to adopt earlier than the mainstream market). They are interested in developing their knowledge where it can help them become more efﬁcient. Products that leverage the existing proven technologies (such as wireless, internet, etc) could easily interest this group. Techno-geeks. The “techno-geeks” are fascinated with new technologies and keep updated with new equipment as it becomes available. They love the concept of being able to access their data on a single device and on-the-go. This group naturally ﬁts into the “Innovator” or “Early adopter” segment in the “Technology adoption life cycle”. Their advanced knowledge of technology gadgets tempts them to want only the newest devices, with plenty of options, all the time. They would make an excellent segment for planning the “beachhead” – mainly due to the fact that technology is part of their lifestyle. They can be labeled “do-it-yourself” group, since they generally require minimal installation services or product support. This group’s non-stop pursuit to use the newest devices available in the market leads us to believe that this group will be an ideal segment to start with. This segment looks for other key factors such as “multi-use” capabilities and ﬂexibilities, ability for after-market customization, etc. Another key factor for this group would be the “social implication” – the thrill of owning the latest technology. They are more concerned with how the new device helps them personally rather than how it affects their friends’ perception of them. The small size of this segment is a cause for concern – it may be difﬁcult to sustain growth catering just to this group. Segment attractiveness factor analysis After identifying three candidate segments, the second step of the analysis is to select segment attractiveness factors and use these factors to evaluate the attractiveness of each segment. The requirement for these factors is that they must be connected to the characteristics of the product and relevant to CVDs for media controller (Lazarevski and Dolnicar, 2009). Table I captures this data. Customer value drivers The second type of the attractiveness factor is CVDs. CVD are “decision-related attributes that are perceived by the customer to be the most important” to the product choice process (Harmon and Laird, 1997). The preference of each segment on these factors will inﬂuence the level of attractiveness for Company X. The preference of each segment is presented in Table II. Figure 5 shows the plot of the value attractiveness curve for each of the customer segment on a scale of 1-10. Data were collected after identifying customers in each
Roadmapping Features Advantages Beneﬁts the convergenceTechno-geek Streaming data Watch streaming media Do not have to store and of technologies accessibility through anywhere obtained carry content along while ultra-mobile device using through subscription only on the move high BW wireless accessible at home today connection. Share the latest cool s/ 679 PDA, cell phones, IP w.game installed at home enabled mobile media dev PCMain street Accessibility of subscribed Watch the cable subscribed Do not have to miss a programs away from home live/stored program at a program while visiting (friend/neighbour) friend/neighbors place neighborhood IPTVMobile savvy Streaming data Seamlessly access digital Do not have to worry about Table I. accessibility through high data on PC and cable TV forgetting to carry some Preference of each BW connection on a device storage data or video content segment on product away from home. stored at home while away feature, analysis, Remote PC, laptop from from beneﬁt factorssegment and asking them to rate each CVD factor. Other factors such as product lifecycle and segment size will also inﬂuence the attractiveness.Market driversFrom the data and analysis in the previous sections, Company X derived the majordrivers for this emerging market. A rapid growth in laptop and mobile phone penetrationover the past few years has brought an increase in the number of mobile internet users(SMART, 2010). With broadband access being available to a greater segment of thepopulation, people are beginning to realize the potential of high bandwidth. Increasedconnectivity has brought users to a point where they have become used to stayingconnected anywhere at all times to almost everything. Content on demand has becomethe theme of the present times. And statistics show that people are willing to pay for thecontent as well (Bain & Company, 2009). With ever increasing growth of digitalsubscriptions such as cable TV, satellite TV, etc. people do not want to miss out for theirfavorite programs only because they are not at home to watch those. For users, it is legalentertainment for which they have paid a price, why get restricted to stay at home toenjoy it? There is a segment of the customers who are driving newer applications such asvideo services, online gaming, mobile gaming, etc. And with consumers’ desire for aone-stop solution, Company X like solutions should be ready to ﬁll the gap.Competitor analysisIndustry structure strongly inﬂuences in determining the competitive rule of the gameas well as the strategies potentially available to the ﬁrm. Companies have uniquestrength and weakness in dealing with industry structure. Therefore, understandingindustry structure should be performed ﬁrst for the net assessment. Porter (1996)suggested ﬁve competitive factors whose forces jointly determine the intensity ofindustry competition and proﬁtability. The strongest force or forces are governing andbecoming crucial from the point of view of strategy formulation. Figure 6 shows thecompetitor analysis done for players like Company X in the current market.
BIJ Main street (40s, own Media savvy (mid 30, Techno-geeks (mid 20,18,5 Factors small business) mobile professional) college student) Economic Cost of ownership Would not buy products Concern more on product Not a big concern, but which need lots money to performance than cost should have high680 maintain quality Degree of budget ﬁt Must ﬁt their budget Somewhat important Not a big concern Performance Faster/easier Need products which are Prefer easy to install A plus in comparison installation and easy to install products to competitors maintenance Feature set Less likely to need best Prefer the best feature set Very important to this feature set group Supplier Resource Conservative buyers. They would consider Reputation for credibility, Only buy from familiar reputation more or less innovation is reputation companies important, but willing to take risks Innovative problem They focus more on Need innovation solutions An important solver quality for their mobile system motivation for purchase Motivation Recognition, want Prefer to buy mature They do not care being the Always wants to be to be the ﬁrst product with quality and ﬁrst adaptor so much the ﬁrst adopter adopter to the reliability. Not important product Desire to be viewedThey will like to be Want to buy a product of Not a huge factor in the as a problem solverviewed as a problem the company which can buying decision solver solve various situations Self image – brand Not connect their self Sensitive to the brand Not as important to image image with that image this segment Situation Buyer’s task They do not have much Want to make their mobile This would be requirement task requirement live easier somewhat important Organizational/ Word of mouth may affect They would consider what Affected by their social inﬂuences other suggested immediate peer groupTable II. Buyer’s experience Experience has no or little Experience with streaming Most have hadCustomer value drivers with related inﬂuence media may affect previous experiencefor each segment products Threat of entry. The entry barrier of this industry is medium. “Economics of scale” of this industry provide opposition by forcing the entrant. Providing a software solution does not need a huge capital investment when compared hardware-based solution. However, access to distribution channels is a barrier to the company since it needs to secure distribution of its products. Threat of rivalry. Although there are already existing players for streaming TV content over internet, there are very few in the Portland area currently. This being a relatively new market, the products and services are new in the industry. And they belong to entry stage of the product life cycle. Different companies have different product strategies. And these diverse strategies of competitors prevent them from reading each other’s intentions accurately and agreeing on a set of rules of the game
10 Roadmapping Main street 9 the convergence of technologies 8 Media savvy 7 6 681 Techno-geek 5 4 3 Product focus Contents Function and mobility 2 of nce l e w ra d a al lit an ucts d pe r ns ty ty op t er n ne cific nc og be ng ee ts e A er rod late io Ea nten nst ee om ili ili lv ith m tio pt rie pr cri m Fu eds ni ut so ib ob la ai r i p re nc ar m ust ol ds bs ss M m asle em C, le es ee su ce to d c eP bl tiv en ac E of ro se ot va qu ta ty bi st ap m da no ili ni Figure 5. Re y nd In sib eu as g pe in U ire es av Ex am Value attractiveness curve cc H es re A D St Potential companies Sling box Orb communications Tivo to go Threat of rivalry Sage tv (low) Air tv • No competitor in the market Hava Threat of entry (medium) • Economics of scale Threat of buyer • Product differentiation (low) Digital content • Capital requirement distribution • Moving to alternative in suppliers pacific NW Threat of substitute Threat of supplier (medium) (high) • Stroge devices • Cable tv companies • Limitation on quality and • Internet service Figure 6. content Porter’s ﬁve forces • Cost is high, sometimes analysisfor the industry. Some are software-based solution only while some are a combinationof hardware and software. There are a few competing products and they do not meet the needs of thecustomers completely in terms of cost, performance and feature set.
BIJ Threat of substitute. The threat of substitute in this industry is medium. The alternative for consumers is to use data storage devices such as digital video recorder or TiVo for their18,5 TV programs. Media-savvy users will alternately carry their data around when they are traveling. There is limitation on quality of content; the cost too is high at times. Threat of supplier. The suppliers, which are content providers and internet service providers in this case, have high power in this market because Company X needs to682 establish tie-ups with each of them. Suppliers form a part of Company X’s ecosystem. Product speciﬁcation and inter-working with other components is very essential to provide the consumers with a high-quality solution and reliability. There is also a scenario where the content providers host their own content and enable streaming through internet. Threat of buyer. The threat of buyers is low in this case. The buyers cannot play one company over another because products and services are not available yet in the Portland metro area market. The switching cost of the solution, once a customer sets it up at home, is relatively high. Also, customers might be relatively less sensitive to the price since quality of the product in this industry is important for the consumers. Product and technology analysis Product speciﬁcation Efforts and investments can be made to make Company X hardware not bulky and easy to set-up but customers usually avoid having another piece of hardware in their living room. Company X must also offer software-only solution for customers having a PC and TV tuner card. The advantage of having a hardware system is better security and quality streaming (Bar-El, 2002). Software solutions have the advantage of the ability to be updated more frequently and can update the customer with additional features sooner than a complete hardware solution. Hence a combined hardware and software solution is best placed to serve the customers. The TV tuner card connects the TV to the PC and the Company X software installed on the PC does the compression, encryption and streaming. The software-only solution may have limitations compared to hardware-based solutions. An example product speciﬁcation for Company X can be as follows: Full product speciﬁcations General Width – 11 inch approx, depth – 4 inch approx. Height – 2 inch approx., weight – 1.5 lbs approx. TV tuner TV tuner quantity – 1, TV tuner reception system – NTSC/PAL. Audio system Audio: output mode – Stereo. Connectors Connector type 1 – composite video/audio input RCA phono £ 3 installed rear, 1 S-video input 4 pin mini-DIN installed rear, 1 RF input RCA phono £ 3 installed rear, 1 composite video/audio output 4 pin mini-DIN installed rear, 1 S-video output RJ-45 installed rear, 1 network RCA phono £ 2 installed rear, 1 Audio line-in RCA phono £ 2 installed, 1 audio line-out.
Coaxial digital input Roadmapping Yes the convergence Accessories of technologies Power adapter, network cable Power 683 External Shipping dimensions Packaged quantity – 1Technology assessmentCompany X incorporates a number of technical features to provide users with a singleinterface on their mobile devices to connect and enjoy the media and content at home asshown in Figure 7. One of the major technologies Company X capitalizes on is wireless technology.The introduction of Wi-Fi technology and access hotspots is just the beginning of theapplication of this technology. These hotspots provide internet connections to userswithin a limited range from an access point. Although this technique extends the reachof the internet, it still limits the movement of the user to within a short distance from aﬁxed location. Most users would like to have mobile access to their broadband internetconnection over much greater distances. The demand for this mobility has continued toforce the transformation of the communications industry. The Wi-Fi standard applies toisolated areas of connectivity, while WiMax and 3G/4G (WiMAX FAQ, 2010) are usedfor longer distance wireless connections. WiMax has been used primarily for computingplatforms and 3G/4G works best with mobile devices such as mobile phones. Ultra-wideband (UWB) has a very short range and is used in the home entertainment environment(UWB Technology, 2010). Table III lists each of the technologies and its associatedproperties. Content subscription Internet Data in PC ABM HW ABM SW "streaming "client/receiver" server" Digital right management Technologies Security management Data encoding Data decoding Uncontrollable Compression Decompression Figure 7. environment Web server Jitter removal Technology in Company Multi DNS service Error correction X’s usage model
BIJ Technology IEEE standard Throughput Range Frequency18,5 UWB 802.15.4 110-480 Mbps Up to 30 feet 7.5 Ghz Wi-Fi 802.11a Up to 54 Mbps Up to 300 feet 5 Ghz 802.11b Up to 11 Mbps Up to 300 feet 2.4 Ghz 802.11 g Up to 54 Mbps Up to 300 feet 2.4 Ghz684 WiMax 802.16d Up to 75 Mbps 4-6 miles ,11 Ghz 802.16e Up to 30 Mbps 1-3 miles 2-6 Ghz WCDMA/UM 3G Up to 2 Mbps 1-5 miles 1,800, 1,900, 2,100 Mhz CDMA2000 3G Up to 2.4 Mbps 1-5 miles 400, 800, 900,Table III. 1,700, 1,800,Wireless standards 1,900,deﬁned 2,100 Mhz Wi-Fi is short for wireless ﬁdelity. It was the earliest and is the most common the most common form of high-speed wireless data technology to be applied in the home and ofﬁce. Wi-Fi has also become the major player in the deployment of “hotspot” wireless connectivity in commercial outlets such as colleges, cafes, hotels, and airports. The range of Wi-Fi is limited, however, and the user must be located within 300 feet of the access point. Wi-Fi equipment is now commonly available and many of the latest platforms can support multiple Wi-Fi standards for compatibility with several wireless networks. WiMAX is the latest technology to emerge that will give users broadband access covering a larger geographic area. The goal is to be able to provide the same access as Wi-Fi does today over a much larger distance. WiMAX can cover anywhere from one to ﬁve miles depending on a number of variables such as the area terrain. WiMAX will give users increased mobility for high-speed data networks and has the capability of covering entire campuses and business parks. Table IV lists the different technologies and standards applicable to Company X and their projected time of availability. Technology acquisition options In order to survive a competitive broadband market, companies rely on strategies of technology acquisition, internal technology sources, or a combination of internal and external technology sources. When deciding whether or not to choose a particular strategy, managers or consultants closely study the various types of technology acquisitions from multiple perspectives (Linstone, 1999). Buying technology can be a viable strategy for incumbent market leaders threatened by disruptive technologies. In this section, we will discuss the options in acquiring emerging technology, and the implications of adopting each option are assessed. Acquisition. Emerging technology trends can be treats or opportunities, depending on whether companies are incorporated them successfully with their overall strategic directions. Since patented technology cannot be duplicated, the faster way to acquire the technology needed is to pay a premium. Obviously, managers realize that it is too late to invest heavily to develop their own technology solution. This is a justiﬁcation to maintain the market share (McGrath, 2001). Cisco and Microsoft are the excellent examples of two companies that applied successfully applied technology acquisition strategy. To accomplish the vision of end-to-end solutions both companies preferred
RoadmappingFeatures Technologies/standards Performance measures Year the convergenceWireless connection Wi-Fi Standard IEEE802.11a/b/g/n, 3G 1-11 Mbps 2009 of technologies Super 3G 20 Mbps 2009 Wi-MAX (IEEE 802.16) 75 Mbps 2009 4G Over 100 Mbps 2010Wired connection Ethernet (802.3i, 802.3u) 100 Mbps 2009 685Multicasting IP v6 Multicasting Compliance to RFC 1458, 2009 3550Stream live video CEA *-708-B, digital television (DTV) closed Support all types of 2009 captioning captioning (roll-up, pop-on, paint-on) ATSC Standard A/53E. Digital television Sequence header 2009 standard constraints * Compression format constraints * Sequence extension constraints * Picture coding constraints *Compression MPEG-2, MPEG-4, DivX, XviD, WMV, Compliance * 2009 WAV MPEG-7 Compliance * 2009 MPEG-21 Compliance * 2010Security Virtual private network 128-bit encryption 2009Video mail service H263, H261 compliance 2011Digital rights WMDRM – 2009management IBM’s xCP (for home networks) – 2011 Sony’s OpenMagicGate (OMG) Table IV. Technologies andNote: *Evolving standards. Compliance to the released version of the standard at the speciﬁed date time of availabilityacquisition than internal development (Knowledge@Wharton, 2005). An importantconsideration of the acquisition strategy in assessing the beneﬁts of acquiredtechnology is cost. Cost is the critical part of the strategy decision when the potentialvalue of acquiring a disruptive technology can be accurately estimated. The key issueis to consider all costs of the technology acquisition: up-front cost, installation,adoption, and training (McGrath, 2001). License agreement. License agreement is the option that reduces the need to acquirecompanies with disruptive technologies. Instead of purchasing emerging technologies,licensing is a better way to access innovation. The main factor of making this decision isthe lack of the capital to acquire the technology. AT&T was the pioneer of offeringlicense agreements in the telephony market. In 1904, 6,000 companies were Bell licensees(Austin and Bradley, 2005). When a new technology is on market, organization simplyreplaces the obsolete technology with innovative solution. Convenient, inexpensivelicensing cut the cost of acquiring emerging technologies. Another factor of making thisdecision is the risk associated to rapidly changing technology and industry standards.The disruptive technology becomes obsolete in ﬁve years or less (Betz, 2003).What functionality will customers need ﬁve years from now? In a high technologybusiness an incumbent company cannot succeed forever having to sustain for an
BIJ ever-increasing disadvantage of stagnant, obsolete or less competitive technologies.18,5 With expensive, state-of-the-art technology, licensing is often the most logical acquisition strategy that helps preserve cash ﬂow because the organization does not have to spend large sums to acquire the emerging company. On the other hand, licensing has a serious disadvantage for the supplier of technology. The problem with licensing consists of reverse engineering. Innovation bears the burden of the copyright686 limitations. Organizations in countries without Intellectual Property laws can produce clones of the innovations without having to pay the royalties. Global legal initiatives must be taken to address this problem that can show down the acquisition of additional new broadband technologies. Joint venture. The third option for technology acquisition is to establish joint venture with industry research leaders. Establishing an in-house capability for developing emerging technologies will require more capital that joint venture. In a joint venture, the ﬁrst milestone of the companies is to consolidate their resources. This option requires investment in R&D to develop a new platform targeting a new market. An additional advantage of a joint venture consists of the sustaining access to innovations. Consequently, the broadband players seek out features and performance to broaden their products and technology portfolios to better serve their customers (Betz, 2003). However, the strategy of joint venture is generally less successful. A typical example of this scenario is the joint venture of Intel & HP in the early 1990s. Intel and HP brought Itanium, a 64-bit microprocessor, on the market too late and less performance than initially claimed. To shed some light on this failed joint venture, McGrath (2001) offered the following reasons: . difﬁcult for both partners to share a common interest; . cultural differences; . different decision making styles; . different attitudes on investment; . different working practices and compensation; and . different product development processes. There are three options for acquiring a new technology: acquisition of the emerging company, license agreements, and joint venture. The company must identify a list of its pros and cons of each option of technology acquisition. The sum of the beneﬁts minus costs over the life of the technology will show which option has the best potential for sustaining in the competitive broadband market. Roadmapping Environmental layer The business of Company X will be affected by a mix of external agents. This includes the policies regarding content protection and digital rights management, government policies which affect the pace of broadband deployment and technological or device innovation, alliances between Company X and cellular technology providers, local content provider’s regulations and the digital content provider’s copyright and redistribution policies. Over the span of next ﬁve years, some of these issues need to be addressed to or modiﬁed in order for place-shifting solutions like Company X to continue to be in demand and in use (Figure 8).
2010 2011 2012 2013 Roadmapping Cable tv alliance Cellular technology alliance the convergence Environment Content redistribution Content protection of technologies Digital rights management Broadband access Market driver Increased digital content subscription General Increased mobile device penetration Techno geek Integrated platform Satellite HD radio 687 media savvy FM local radio Main street Remote access to digital data Remote access to digital data Remote access to digital tv content UV4.0 UV3.0 UV2.0 Product UV1.1 UV1.0 Technology Satellite radio signal converter Server software Multicast s/w To develop Analog-to-digital converter DRM handling Available Sreaming server Mobile GUI s/w IPTV s/w Standardized Encryption Compression WiFi WiMAX Video phone s/w Resource High Medium Low Acquisition Figure 8. Licensing strategy Example roadmap Licensing Joint venture Joint venture of Company X Buying BuyingMarket layerCompany X evaluated the different market drivers for the industry during the timeperiod 2000 through 2010. The increasing broadband access acted as a major drivingforce which gave rise to subsequent customer demands and needs. We categorized the market drivers into general and market segment speciﬁc.Growing customer need for broadband access is a general driver applicable for allconsumers. The VoD ﬁgures along with IP video offering forecast gives an idea of theincreased digital content subscription and thus customer’s wish not to miss any ofthese subscribed programs. Increased mobile device usage over time is also considereda generic market driver for the industry (Iyer and Scherf, 2006). Looking at market segment speciﬁc drivers, techno-geek and media savvy are morelikely to have a need to remotely access their digital data when away from home. Themajor driving factor for the main street for choosing Company X solution would be tohave remote access to digital TV content. However, looking into the future, we see themain-street segment merging with the techno-geek and media savvy as far as the needto access digital data remotely is concerned. In a few years time, today’s main street isprobably going to become the media-savvy person. We also visualize a disappearingmarket driver of today – the need to support FM local radio. Satellite radio isadvertisement free and few years down the lane, people will prefer that over the FMradio. All of this data is captured as market drivers against timelines in Figure 9.Product layerAfter identifying the market drivers for Company X’s different customer segments,we phased out the product development over the next ﬁve years. The ﬁrst release of theproduct, UV 1.0, is planned towards the end of the ﬁrst quarter of 2011. Table Vsummarizes the various product releases of Company X and the features associated
BIJ with each. UV 1.1 is scheduled for release before the holiday season and the subsequent18,5 releases UV 2.0, 3.0 and 4.0 are planned for back-to-school time releases (Figure 10). Technology layer Figure 11 shows some of the technologies which are essential for the success of Company X products. Some of the technologies are standardized solutions while some688 need to be either developed in-house or acquired. Linking the roadmap to a business strategy One of the critical beneﬁts of the roadmap is that it can provide deep understanding on various perspectives surrounding their business and help to catch a new opportunity. The roadmap developed here provides an overview of the wireless streaming industry. Figure 11 presents an example of application to business strategy. From the ecosystem, two scenarios had been suggested. Based on each scenario, a company has two business options. One is to develop their own brand and sell them in the market while the other option is to sell their product as a component for a set-up box provided by a cable company. As shown in resource lay, those options require different resources and thereby different set of technology acquisition strategies. Conclusion Roadmapping is shown to be a comprehensive tool providing overall business strategy. Technology and market forecast are critical for creating as accurate a roadmap as possible. Understanding of environment and thereby ecosystem helps draw a better picture of the future. Companies like Company X wishing to build a business based on innovation need to understand the market need and match them with the mix of available technology. Creating and maintaining an accurate technology roadmap will help the company reach its strategic objectives in the long term in contrast with hasty tactical efforts carried out with short-term goals in the broadband market. The success of Company X’s broadband business strategy depends on the understanding of the current regulations and the possible impact of future laws related to digital content. In addition, this paper demonstrated how any company can use the TRM and accomplish both external and internal benchmarking. Speciﬁcally, the graphical representations provide managers extreme insight into the competitive forces and let them make decisions easier. 2000 2010 2012 Broadband access Market driver Increased digital content subscription Increased mobile device penetration Integrated platform General Satellite HD radio FM local radio Techno geek Media savvy Remote access to digital data Remote access to digital data Remote access to digital tv contentFigure 9. Main streetMarket driversfor Company X
Roadmapping UV 1.0 UV 1.1 UV 2.0 UV 3.0 UV 4.0 the convergencePlanned release August December June 2012 December 2012 June 2013 of technologies 2011 2011Major market Main Media Media All Allsegment target street savvy savvy Techno- Techno- 689 geek geekHardware UV box at H/w H/w support None None home support for satellite for Wi-Fi, radio WiMaxSoftware Client s/w Client Client s/w Client s/w Client s/w s/w, Server s/w Server s/w Server s/w Server s/wDevice supported TV, DVR, PC, TV, Satellite Satellite radio, PC, TV, IPTV, videoat home TiVo, DVR, radio, PC, DVR, TiVo, radio phone, satellite radio TiVo, TV, DVR, radio, PC, TV, radio TiVo, radio DVR, TiVo, radioClient devices Laptop, Laptop, Cell phone, iPod, Zune, cell phone, Car TV, iPod,supported desktop desktop PDA, PDA, laptop, desktop Zune, cell phone, laptop, PDA, laptop, desktop desktopDistinct features Stream Stream Data Software-only solution More home TV all recording Multicasting support devices support content content More mobile Wireless devices support supportAssumptions Main Majority of people IP TV penetration street has have PC at home. is at least no PC at (Main street merges 25 percent home with Techno-geek) TV Satellite radio is content popular than FM viewing is TV and satellite radio Table V. main tuner card Company X product motive release schedule 2000 2010 2011 Satellite radio signal converter Technology Server software Multicast s/w To develop Analog-to-digital converter DRM handling Available Streaming server Standardize Mobile GUI IPTV s/w Figure 10. Key technologies Encryption Compression WiFi WiMAX Video phone s/w for Company X
BIJ 2010 2011 201218,5 Ecosystem scenario Scenario I Provide Scenario I : content providers objection for multicasting own Scenario II product Scenario II : content providers objection Product UV4.0 UV3.0 Provide as a component UV2.0 for cable company690 Hardware + s/w UV1.1 UV1.0 UV2.0 s/w only UV1.1 UV1.0 Satellite radio signal converter Technology Server software Multicast s/w To develop Analog-to-digital converter DRM handing s/w Available Streaming server Mobile GUI s/w IPTV s/w Standardized Encryption Compression WiFi WiMAX Video phone s/w Resource High Medium LowFigure 11. Acquisition strategy LicensingLinking the roadmap to Licensing Joint venturebusiness strategy Joint venture Buying Buying References ABC.com (2010), “ABC.com – ofﬁcial site of the ABC network”, available at: http://abc.go.com/ (accessed 28 November 2010). Apple TV (2010), “Apple – Apple TV – rent HD movies and TV shows, stream Netﬂix, and more”, available at: www.apple.com/appletv/#whatis (accessed 22 November 2010). ArsTechnica (2010a), “Place-shifting: challenges present and future paint a rough picture for innovation”, available at: http://arstechnica.com/gadgets/news/2006/07/placeshifting.ars/ (accessed 28 November 2010). ArsTechnica (2010b), “Will Hollywood sue the SlingBox out of existence?”, available at: http:// arstechnica.com/old/content/2006/04/6691.ars (accessed 28 November 2010). Austin, R. and Bradley, S.P. (2005), Broadband Explosion: Leading Thinkers on the Promise of a Truly Interactive World (Hardcover), Harvard Business School Press Books, Boston, MA, July, p. 1. Bain & Company (2009), Mobile Internet for Growth: Project Report, Prepared by Bain & Company, World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2009, Davos, January, available at: www.bain.com/bainweb/PDFs/cms/Public/WEF_2009_Mobile_internet.pdf Bar-El, H. (2002), “Security implications of hardware vs. software cryptographic modules”, Technical report, Information Security Analyst available at: www.hbarel.com/ publications/Security_Implication_for_Cryptographic_Modules_Hardware_vs_Software. pdf Betz, F. (2003), Managing Technological Innovation: Competitive Advantage from Change, 2nd ed., Wiley, New York, NY. BroadbandSuitee (2008), BroadbandSuitee Solution Series, enabling IPTV Service Delivery, Version: 0.22, November 12, available at: www.broadband-forum.org/marketing/ download/mktgdocs/AN_IPTV_Final.pdf