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Latin America <ul><li>In recent years pre-revolutionary situations in: </li></ul><ul><li>Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador and V...
Second choice <ul><li>Direct military intervention not possible. </li></ul><ul><li>Nicaragua, Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Pa...
Inequalities <ul><li>Liberal counter-reforms continue. </li></ul><ul><li>Social inequalities growing. </li></ul><ul><li>No...
Social movements <ul><li>Brazilian landless, Argentine unions, indigenous peoples. </li></ul><ul><li>Can re-emerge as oppo...
Bolivarian <ul><li>Bolivia and Venezuela are obstacles to stabilisation for imperialism. </li></ul><ul><li>Providing healt...
1200 Venezuelan factories taken over after being shut down <ul><li>Faced with the same problem as the recovered factories ...
Differences <ul><li>Chavez dominates the mass movement. </li></ul><ul><li>Morales is directed by mass movement. </li></ul>...
Oil <ul><li>Oil price since Chavez took office in 1998 rose from $9 a barrel to the current of $78.  </li></ul><ul><li>Cha...
Income decline <ul><li>Oil exports fell 15%. </li></ul><ul><li>Production dropped 7 percent in the first quarter of this y...
Struggle against counter-revolution <ul><li>Make it a decisive blow against the capitalist state apparatus. </li></ul><ul>...
The Army <ul><li>The idea that the Army is under control and is loyal to the revolution could prove to be fatal.  </li></u...
United Venezuelan Socialist Party (PSUV)  <ul><li>Has signed more than 5 million new members. </li></ul><ul><li>It can onl...
Congress of Factory Workers of Bolivia in October 2006 <ul><li>Argue that the neoliberal model deepened of the neocolonial...
Gas and tax <ul><li>1998-2002 gas exports earned $232 million annually for the Bolivian state. </li></ul><ul><li>2006, due...
Reformist measures  <ul><li>Acceptable tax arrangement does not mean nationalization. </li></ul><ul><li>Measures fall well...
U.S. Council on Foreign Relations  <ul><li>“ Morales, despite the persona he has tried to cultivate, is in many ways a tra...
Contradictions <ul><li>A president at the head of a mass movement pushing ever more in an anti-capitalist direction. </li>...
Situation is not stable <ul><li>Can only be transitional to a workers’ state the reestablishment of bourgeois control over...
Cuba <ul><li>Raul Castro has identified low incomes as weakness. </li></ul><ul><li>Revolution still has legitimacy for mas...
Tasks <ul><li>Continue coverage in press. </li></ul><ul><li>Firm up contacts in Latin America. </li></ul><ul><li>Maintain ...
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Latin America

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Situation in Bolivia and Venezuela

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Latin America

  1. 1. Latin America <ul><li>In recent years pre-revolutionary situations in: </li></ul><ul><li>Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador and Venezuela, Mexico. </li></ul><ul><li>US imperialism weakened by Iraq & Afghanistan. </li></ul>
  2. 2. Second choice <ul><li>Direct military intervention not possible. </li></ul><ul><li>Nicaragua, Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Paraguay. </li></ul><ul><li>Maintain class rule by using “left” neo-liberal governments. </li></ul>
  3. 3. Inequalities <ul><li>Liberal counter-reforms continue. </li></ul><ul><li>Social inequalities growing. </li></ul><ul><li>No autonomy from imperialism. </li></ul><ul><li>Respect wishes of IMF and world bank. </li></ul><ul><li>In Bolivia 66% is engaged in the informal sector, and the illicit coca trade </li></ul>
  4. 4. Social movements <ul><li>Brazilian landless, Argentine unions, indigenous peoples. </li></ul><ul><li>Can re-emerge as opposition. </li></ul>
  5. 5. Bolivarian <ul><li>Bolivia and Venezuela are obstacles to stabilisation for imperialism. </li></ul><ul><li>Providing health, education & food. </li></ul><ul><li>Economies remain largely capitalist. </li></ul><ul><li>Islands of workers’ control. </li></ul><ul><li>Attempt to restore state control over Bolivia’s hydrocarbon reserves puts the issue of social ownership back onto the agenda. </li></ul>
  6. 6. 1200 Venezuelan factories taken over after being shut down <ul><li>Faced with the same problem as the recovered factories in Argentina. </li></ul><ul><li>How to survive in a sea of capitalist economic relations? </li></ul><ul><li>How to ensure supply of raw materials? </li></ul><ul><li>how to ensure a buyer for the finished product? </li></ul>
  7. 7. Differences <ul><li>Chavez dominates the mass movement. </li></ul><ul><li>Morales is directed by mass movement. </li></ul><ul><li>Morales vacillates between Chavez and Lula. </li></ul>
  8. 8. Oil <ul><li>Oil price since Chavez took office in 1998 rose from $9 a barrel to the current of $78. </li></ul><ul><li>Chavez has said that he expects the price to rise to $100. </li></ul><ul><li>Made it possible for Chavez to finance many social projects without coming to conflict with the local capitalists. </li></ul>
  9. 9. Income decline <ul><li>Oil exports fell 15%. </li></ul><ul><li>Production dropped 7 percent in the first quarter of this year . </li></ul><ul><li>With lower global oil prices during part of this year income from oil exports may decline by about 24 percent in 2007. </li></ul>
  10. 10. Struggle against counter-revolution <ul><li>Make it a decisive blow against the capitalist state apparatus. </li></ul><ul><li>Move towards the nationalisation under democratic workers' control of the main levers of the economy (banks, large scale industry and the land). </li></ul>
  11. 11. The Army <ul><li>The idea that the Army is under control and is loyal to the revolution could prove to be fatal. </li></ul><ul><li>In all revolutions the revolutionary mood spreads into the Army. </li></ul><ul><li>Soldiers and lower-ranking officers. </li></ul><ul><li>Senior officers side with the counter-revolution. </li></ul>
  12. 12. United Venezuelan Socialist Party (PSUV) <ul><li>Has signed more than 5 million new members. </li></ul><ul><li>It can only be a state party, a populist party . </li></ul>
  13. 13. Congress of Factory Workers of Bolivia in October 2006 <ul><li>Argue that the neoliberal model deepened of the neocolonial character of the Bolivian economy as a producer of raw material. </li></ul><ul><li>Natural gas taking over the role that tin played for much of the 20th century. </li></ul><ul><li>Penetration of international capital in most important productive sectors of the economy. </li></ul><ul><li>Creation of unprecedented levels of unemployment. </li></ul><ul><li>Over110,000 factory workers and miners lost their jobs in the 1980s as a consequence of privatization and the closure of factories. </li></ul>
  14. 14. Gas and tax <ul><li>1998-2002 gas exports earned $232 million annually for the Bolivian state. </li></ul><ul><li>2006, due to transitory high tax period and the new contracts, the Morales government took in $1.65 billion. </li></ul><ul><li>Expects that annual figure to rise to $2 billion in 2007, and $4 billion by 2010. </li></ul>
  15. 15. Reformist measures <ul><li>Acceptable tax arrangement does not mean nationalization. </li></ul><ul><li>Measures fall well short of those enacted in following the 1952 revolution. </li></ul><ul><li>Transnational petroleum companies remain in control of the industry. </li></ul><ul><li>Bolivia continues to be trapped in the export of a primary commodity with no value-added </li></ul>
  16. 16. U.S. Council on Foreign Relations <ul><li>“ Morales, despite the persona he has tried to cultivate, is in many ways a traditional Bolivian political actor who doles out patronage to major supporters while simultaneously condemning those who came before him for doing the same .” </li></ul>
  17. 17. Contradictions <ul><li>A president at the head of a mass movement pushing ever more in an anti-capitalist direction. </li></ul><ul><li>In the midst of struggle to create a revolutionary state and destroying the old state </li></ul><ul><li>Urging working people on towards socialism. </li></ul>
  18. 18. Situation is not stable <ul><li>Can only be transitional to a workers’ state the reestablishment of bourgeois control over the government. </li></ul><ul><li>Such a government has to move to work to dismantle the bourgeoisie state and replace it with a revolutionary one. </li></ul>
  19. 19. Cuba <ul><li>Raul Castro has identified low incomes as weakness. </li></ul><ul><li>Revolution still has legitimacy for masses. </li></ul><ul><li>Debate in leadership on Chinese model. </li></ul>
  20. 20. Tasks <ul><li>Continue coverage in press. </li></ul><ul><li>Firm up contacts in Latin America. </li></ul><ul><li>Maintain involvement with BSC & HOV. </li></ul><ul><li>Readers’ groups discuss Latin America twice per year. </li></ul>

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