Examine recent events and large price movements in world gold market, especially concerning likely nadir in the DJIA/Gold ratio; review long term trends in real DJIA and S&P 500 indices.
Fischer’s multi-decadal “Great Wave” socioeconomic concept will be explained and applied to gold and stock market scenarios; likely to be operating in ~85-year Fischer “period of equilibrium” that began in 1980 and could extend to 2065; low rates of inflation and interest on debt instruments; very high rates of breakthrough technological change and productization.
If commercialized (which is likely, since several major Japanese manufacturing companies are now actively involved in R&D, writing journal papers, and publicly reporting experimental results), LENR transmutation technology could potentially be used to produce gold and platinum from lower-cost metals like tungsten; already achieved in laboratory, but scale-up and production cost parameters are still open questions. If successfully commercialized for stationary and battery-like portable power generation applications (which is also likely), LENRs could ultimately have an impact on helping to significantly reduce the real price of energy over time.
As we have shown elsewhere, LENRS are synergistic with oil and coal, not really competitive. Aromatic fractions can probably be extracted from both and then converted into ‘green’ LENR fuels. By using LENRs to transmute carbon rather than combusting carbon atoms with oxygen, 5 million x more thermal energy will be released from the same mass of fuel without emitting any gaseous CO2 into the biosphere. Such a development, if realized, would have an enormous dampening effect on future inflation rates, since the cost of energy is buried within the prices of nearly all goods and services.
Rates of population growth are dropping all over the world, especially in China and India; this is a negative factor for gold demand; strong damper on any nascent inflationary pressures.
Conclusion: the real price of gold is very likely to substantially under-perform the real price appreciation in equities markets during most of the next 5 - 15 years and perhaps even longer.