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L'observatoire politique CSA Les Echos de mai 2014

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L'observatoire politique CSA Les Echos de mai 2014

  1. 1. Baromètre CSA pour les Echos et Radio Classique Mai 2014 L’Observatoire Politique CSA - Les Echos - Radio Classique Etude N° 1400600A
  2. 2. Titredu projet 2 Sommaire Principaux enseignements 3 2. La confiance dans l’exécutif 83. L’image des personnalités politiques 154. Fiche technique 5 1.
  3. 3. Fiche technique 3  Baromètre exclusif CSA / LES ECHOS / RADIO CLASSIQUE réalisé par téléphone les 2 et 3 mai 2014.  Echantillon national représentatif de 1004 personnes âgées de 18 ans et plus, constitué d’après la méthode des quotas (sexe, âge et profession du chef de ménage) après stratification par région et taille d’agglomération. L’Observatoire Politique CSA - Les Echos - Radio Classique / Mai 2014
  4. 4. 4 Pour un échantillon de 1000 personnes, les marges d’erreur sont les suivantes avec un niveau de confiance de 95% : Pour un pourcentage de : 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% La marge d’erreur est de : +/- 1.4 +/- 1.9 +/- 2.2 +/- 2.5 +/- 2.7 +/- 2.8 +/- 3 +/- 3 +/- 3.1 +/- 3.1 +/- 3.1 +/- 3 +/- 3 +/- 2.8 +/- 2.7 +/- 2.5 +/- 2.2 +/- 1.9 +/- 1.4 Le résultat réel se situe dans une fourchette entre : 3.6 et 6.4 8.1 et 11.9 12.8 et 17.2 17.5 et 22.5 22.3 et 27.7 27.2 et 32.8 32 et 38 37 et 43 41.9 et 48.1 46.9 et 53.1 51.9 et 58.1 57 et 63 62 et 68 67.2 et 72.8 72.3 et 77.7 77.5 et 82.5 82.8 et 87.2 88.1 et 91.9 93.6 et 96.4 Exemple de lecture : pour un résultat observé de 50%, il y a 95% de chances pour que le résultat réel soit compris entre 46.9% et 53.1%. Précisions sur les marges d’erreur L’Observatoire Politique CSA - Les Echos - Radio Classique / Mai 2014
  5. 5. Titredu projet 5 Principaux enseignements 5
  6. 6. Principaux enseignements (1/2) 6 XXXXX L’Observatoire Politique CSA - Les Echos - Radio Classique / Mai 2014
  7. 7. Titredu projet 7 La confiance dans l’exécutif
  8. 8. Confiance en François Hollande 8 QUESTION - Faites-vous confiance ou pas confiance au Président de la République, François HOLLANDE, pour affronter efficacement les principaux problèmes qui se posent au pays ? En % Indice de confiance : -55* *Indice calculé en soustrayant les « Pas confiance » au « Confiance » Confiance 20% Pas confiance 75% NSP 5% Rappel Avril 2014 25% (-5) Rappel Avril 2014 72% (+3) L’Observatoire Politique CSA - Les Echos - Radio Classique / Mai 2014
  9. 9. 20 24 14 19 23 20 20 25 26 15 15 14 54 13 28 20 3 6 75 66 81 77 73 75 77 72 71 81 79 83 43 76 65 77 95 91 5 10 5 4 4 5 3 3 3 4 6 3 3 11 7 3 2 3 Ensemble 18-24 ans 25-34 ans 35-49 ans 50-64 ans 65 ans et plus Retraités Cadres et professions libérales Professions intermédiaires Employés Ouvriers Sympathisants Front de Gauche Sympathisants PS Sympathisants EELV Sympathisants MoDem Sympathisants UDI Sympathisants UMP Sympathisants FN Confiance Pas confiance NSP Confiance détaillée en François Hollande 9 Age Profession Proximité politique Evolution % « Confiance » -5 +3 -13 -7 -1 -8 -10 -22 +8 -5 -10 -23 -4 -29 -3 +8 +1 -4 L’Observatoire Politique CSA - Les Echos - Radio Classique / Mai 2014
  10. 10. Confiance en Manuel Valls 10 QUESTION - Faites-vous confiance ou pas confiance au Premier ministre, Manuel VALLS, pour affronter efficacement les principaux problèmes qui se posent au pays ? En % Indice de confiance : -13* *Indice calculé en soustrayant les « Pas confiance » au « Confiance » Confiance 39% Pas confiance 52% NSP 9% Rappel Avril 2014 41% (-2) Rappel Avril 2014 47% (+5) L’Observatoire Politique CSA - Les Echos - Radio Classique / Mai 2014
  11. 11. 39 43 37 30 44 47 44 46 42 36 30 30 66 40 59 42 33 28 52 44 57 61 48 45 49 51 51 57 60 65 30 59 37 53 57 63 9 13 6 9 8 8 7 3 7 7 10 5 4 1 4 5 10 9 Ensemble 18-24 ans 25-34 ans 35-49 ans 50-64 ans 65 ans et plus Retraités Cadres et professions libérales Professions intermédiaires Employés Ouvriers Sympathisants Front de Gauche Sympathisants PS Sympathisants EELV Sympathisants MoDem Sympathisants UDI Sympathisants UMP Sympathisants FN Confiance Pas confiance NSP Confiance détaillée en Manuel Valls 11 Age Profession Proximité politique L’Observatoire Politique CSA - Les Echos - Radio Classique / Mai 2014 -2 +11 -2 -13 +6 -3 -2 -4 = +1 -13 -16 -8 -11 +9 +1 +8 +2
  12. 12. 58 51 54 49 43 42 39 39 35 38 33 29 31 28 31 31 31 30 25 24 25 23 25 25 20 41 39 59 65 61 55 56 51 55 48 42 38 40 38 39 36 40 41 40 47 46 44 39 42 40 41 50 56 53 47 44 41 45 42 47 55 50 42 42 44 45 44 43 48 42 43 40 44 43 56 49 53 49 42 41 36 35 33 34 30 26 29 25 29 31 32 28 24 22 23 23 22 François Hollande Manuel Valls Nicolas Sarkozy François Fillon Jean-Marc Ayrault Evolution de la confiance à l’égard de François Hollande et Manuel Valls 12 pour rappel en 2007-2009 Mai 2012 à Mars 2014 Premier ministre : Jean-Marc Ayrault L’Observatoire Politique CSA - Les Echos - Radio Classique / Mai 2014
  13. 13. Titredu projet 13 L’image des personnalités politiques
  14. 14. Image des principales personnalités politiques 14 QUESTION - Pour chacune des personnalités suivantes, dites-moi si vous en avez plutôt une image positive ou plutôt une image négative ? 53 45 44 42 42 41 40 39 33 32 32 32 30 30 29 29 28 24 22 40 44 48 52 55 51 54 57 45 52 58 65 51 63 42 49 49 60 70 7 11 8 6 3 8 6 4 22 16 10 3 19 7 29 22 23 16 8 Alain Juppé Jean-Louis Borloo François Bayrou Martine Aubry Nicolas Sarkozy Laurent Fabius François Fillon Ségolène Royal Najat Vallaud-Belkacem Arnaud Montebourg Christiane Taubira Marine Le Pen Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet Jean-Luc Mélenchon Benoît Hamon Michel Sapin Xavier Bertrand Cécile Duflot Jean-François Copé Plutôt une image positive Plutôt une image négative NSP +/- Avril 2014 -3 +2 -4 -3 -2 -7 -2 -7 -4 -6 -3** +2 +1 +1 -2 NP* -4 -5 -5 * Non posé lors des vagues précédentes ** Dernière mesure en février L’Observatoire Politique CSA - Les Echos - Radio Classique / Mai 2014
  15. 15. Image des principales personnalités politiques auprès des sympathisants de gauche 15 QUESTION - Pour chacune des personnalités suivantes, dites-moi si vous en avez plutôt une image positive ou plutôt une image négative ? 67 61 57 54 53 47 47 46 46 45 42 42 39 30 24 20 18 14 12 30 36 33 40 28 34 41 46 48 49 35 53 47 64 57 66 80 81 87 3 3 10 6 19 19 12 8 6 6 23 5 14 6 19 14 2 5 1 Martine Aubry Ségolène Royal Christiane Taubira Laurent Fabius Najat Vallaud-Belkacem Michel Sapin Arnaud Montebourg Jean-Louis Borloo François Bayrou Alain Juppé Benoît Hamon Jean-Luc Mélenchon Cécile Duflot François Fillon Xavier Bertrand Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet Nicolas Sarkozy Jean-François Copé Marine Le Pen Plutôt une image positive Plutôt une image négative NSP +/- Avril 2014 -8 -9 -7** -14 -6 +5 -11 +7 -5 -5 NP* -5 -8 -1 -2 = = -3 = * Non posé lors des vagues précédentes ** Dernière mesure en février L’Observatoire Politique CSA - Les Echos - Radio Classique / Mai 2014
  16. 16. 16 QUESTION - Pour chacune des personnalités suivantes, dites-moi si vous en avez plutôt une image positive ou plutôt une image négative ? 77 74 66 62 52 45 43 42 41 30 28 27 25 24 24 22 21 19 18 20 24 29 36 36 38 52 53 55 68 57 70 65 50 60 77 68 78 76 3 2 5 2 12 17 5 5 4 2 15 3 10 26 16 1 11 3 6 Alain Juppé Nicolas Sarkozy Jean-Louis Borloo François Fillon Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet Xavier Bertrand François Bayrou Laurent Fabius Jean-François Copé Marine Le Pen Najat Vallaud-Belkacem Martine Aubry Arnaud Montebourg Benoît Hamon Michel Sapin Ségolène Royal Cécile Duflot Jean-Luc Mélenchon Christiane Taubira Plutôt une image positive Plutôt une image négative NSP +/- Avril 2014 -1 -3 +8 -2 +6 -2 -7 = -5 +2 = +3 -8 -6 NP* +6 +5 +2 -1** * Non posé lors des vagues précédentes ** Dernière mesure en février L’Observatoire Politique CSA - Les Echos - Radio Classique / Mai 2014 Image des principales personnalités politiques auprès des sympathisants de droite
  17. 17. 45 49 46 52 47 46 46 50 45 49 56 53 42 42 43 40 44 42 39 38 39 39 39 43 45 38 45 41 43 44 40 43 43 46 42 45 42 48 43 47 43 47 39 39 42 41 39 44 41 41 42 42 46 44 44 38 34 37 34 38 34 38 35 37 35 40 48 41 Mai 13 Juin 13 Juillet 13 Août 13 Sept 13 Oct 13 Nov 13 Déc 13 Jan 14 Fév 14 Mars 14 Avril 14 Mai 14 Alain Juppé Jean-Louis Borloo Martine Aubry François Bayrou Nicolas Sarkozy Laurent Fabius 17 Evolution de l’image des personnalités politiques (1/3) L’Observatoire Politique CSA - Les Echos - Radio Classique / Mai 2014
  18. 18. 40 38 46 39 38 33 35 31 36 39 39 35 32 48 45 49 48 49 42 39 37 40 41 40 42 40 35 34 34 34 34 36 34 33 38 35 37 33 36 32 31 32 33 32 29 29 29 28 30 Mai 13 Juin 13 Juillet 13 Août 13 Sept 13 Oct 13 Nov 13 Déc 13 Jan 14 Fév 14 Mars 14 Avril 14 Mai 14 Ségolène Royal Christiane Taubira François Fillon Arnaud Montebourg Najat Vallaud-Belkacem Marine Le Pen 18 Evolution de l’image des personnalités politiques (2/3) L’Observatoire Politique CSA - Les Echos - Radio Classique / Mai 2014
  19. 19. 33 34 34 29 32 30 30 28 29 29 28 30 27 25 27 25 28 32 28 34 31 33 30 32 30 24 29 28 29 32 32 35 33 32 29 26 25 26 28 25 29 24 2929 26 30 27 27 27 26 27 28 24 25 27 26 24 25 24 23 24 22 19 27 22 Mai 13 Juin 13 Juillet 13 Août 13 Sept 13 Oct 13 Nov 13 Déc 13 Jan 14 Fév 14 Mars 14 Avril 14 Mai 14 Jean-Luc Mélenchon Xavier Bertrand Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet Cécile Duflot Benoît Hamon Michel Sapin Jean-François Copé 19 Evolution de l’image des personnalités politiques (1/3) L’Observatoire Politique CSA - Les Echos - Radio Classique / Mai 2014
  20. 20. en savoir plus : www.csa.eu - @InstitutCSA 10, rue Godefroy - 92800 Puteaux Tel . : 01.57.00.58.00 - Fax : 01.57.00.58.01 Titredu projet 20 CONTACTS – Pôle Opinion Corporate Yves-Marie CANN, Directeur en charge de l’Opinion – yves-marie.cann@csa.eu Nicolas FERT, Chargé d’études senior – nicolas.fert@csa.eu

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