Before you start• 80/20 rule: 80% data is good enough for now• Better approximately right than exactly wrong: beware of precise numbers• Estimating market size is an iterative process: you’ll get there in the end
Key sources of data: big-name research firms• Gartner http://www.gartner.com/• Forrester http://www.forrester.com/• IDC http://www.idc.com/• Good Thing: LOTS of free stuff• Bad Thing: they collect other people’s guesses, and add own guesses on top.• Look for facts, not Big Future predictions
Boutique research companies• Soft drinks: http://www.canadean.com/• Mobile telephony: http://www.canalys.com/• There’s got to be one for you!
A few aggregators• http://www.firstresearch.com/• http://www.marketresearch.com/• Lots of good stuff, but…
Trade federationsESMA is a Leading, non-profit,Association in Europe forSpecialist PrintingManufacturers of Screen,Digital and Flexo technology.
So how do you use the data for your business model? Value SourcePopulation 305 million US CensusWorking Population X 50.5% Dept. of LaborChanging Jobs Annually X 15% AssumedUsing Online Job Postings X 50% AssumedWilling to Pay $50 for Posting X 20% AssumedMarket Size in Revenue = $115.5 mln
We’ll be rich if we can get 1% of themarket…DOESN’T WORK THAT WAY!
First, make sure you understand your consumers and market
Shortcut: look at the competition• Revenue vs. employee numbers are fairly consistent within an industry• Example: a consultancy earns 5-7 times what it pays an average employee.
Finding competitive data• Annual reports of publicly listed companies• Even better: ALL companies have to file their financial statements in Belgium
You’re just starting, so…• Everything will cost more and take longer than for established companies – Everything you do for the 1st time will take longer – People will cost more than you think – Marketing will cost WAY more than you think• Throw in a small correction for that: – Triple it.
What market can you realistically reach?• Are there networks you can use to reach the entire niche? How many people in them?• How many sales calls can YOU make per month?• If you do get clients, how many can you actually service?